arXiv subjects

Eric Thrane

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Thrane.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Optimising gravitational-wave sky maps for pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) have recently reported compelling evidence for the presence of a gravitational-wave background signal. Mapping the gravitational-wave background is key to understanding how it is formed, since anisotropy is a tracer for, for example, a supermassive black hole binary origin. In this work we refine the frequentist regularised gravitational-wave mapping analysis developed in our previous work (as part of the MeerKAT PTA 4.5-year data release). We derive a point-spread function describing the angular resolution of a PTA. We investigate how the point spread function changes for different PTA constellations and determine the best possible angular resolution achievable within our framework. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that previous methods do not capture the actual resolution - especially in regions of the sky with a high density of pulsars. We propose an improved scheme that accounts for a variable local resolution and test it using realistic simulations of the latest MeerKAT dataset. We demonstrate that we are able to identify a continuous gravitational wave signal in a region with good pulsar sky coverage with approximately a factor of two increase in significance compared to our previous method.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

A subpopulation of low-mass, spinning black holes: signatures of dynamical assembly

Gravitational-wave observations of massive, rapidly spinning binary black holes mergers provide increasing evidence for the dynamical origin of some mergers. Previous studies have interpreted the mergers with primary mass $\gtrsim45\,M_\odot$ as being dominated by hierarchical, second-generation mergers, with rapidly spinning primaries being the products of previous black hole mergers assembled in dense stellar clusters. In this work, we reveal confident evidence of another subpopulation with rapid and isotropic spins at low mass containing the two exceptional events GW241011 and GW241110, consistent with a hierarchical merger hypothesis. Our result suggests the mass distribution of the second-generation black holes is peaked at low primary masses of $\sim16\,M_\odot$ rather than $\gtrsim45\,M_\odot$ in the pair-instability gap. Such low-mass second-generation black holes must be formed from the merger of even lighter first-generation black holes, implying that dense, metal-rich stellar environments contribute to the binary black hole population. By separating the contamination of higher-generation black holes, our result reveals the primary mass distribution of first-generation black holes formed from stellar collapse, which shows a significant dip between $\sim12\,M_\odot$ to $\sim20\,M_\odot$. This may indicate a dearth of black holes due to variation in the core compactness of the progenitor.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

GW231123: extreme spins or microglitches?

The recently reported binary black hole merger, GW231123, has unusual properties that make it hard to explain astrophysically. Parameter estimation studies are consistent with maximally spinning black holes and the dimensionless spin of the more massive component is constrained to be $χ_1\gtrsim 0.8$. Analysis of data also revealed potential systematics that could not be fully replicated with simulated studies. We explore the possibility that these measurements are biased due to unmodeled non-Gaussian noise in the detectors, and that the actual black hole spins are more modest. We present evidence for a population of \textit{microglitches} in LIGO gravitational-wave strain data that can lead to biases in the parameter estimation of short-duration signals such as GW231123. Using simulated data of a massive event like GW231123, we demonstrate how microglitches can bias our measurements of black hole spins toward $χ\approx1$ with negligible posterior support for the true value of $χ\approx0.7$. We develop a noise model to account for microglitches and show that this model successfully reduces biases in the recovery of signal parameters. We characterize the microglitch population in real interferometer data surrounding GW231123 and find a single detector glitch duty cycle of $0.57_{-0.19}^{+0.21}$, which implies nearly a $100\%$ probability that at least one event through the fourth gravitational wave transient catalog coincides with microglitches in two detectors. We argue that further investigations are required before we can have a confident picture of the astrophysical properties of GW231123.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Trends in the Population of Binary Black Holes Following the Fourth Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog: a Data-Driven Analysis

Current population models of binary black hole distributions are difficult to interpret because standard population inferences hinge on modeling choices, which can mask or mimic real structure. The maximum population likelihood ``$\pistroke$ formalism'' provides a means to investigate and interpret features in the distribution of binary black holes using only data -- without specifying a population model. It tells us if features inferred from current population models are truly present in the data or if they arise from model misspecification. It also provides guidance for developing new models by highlighting previously unnoticed features. In this study, we utilize the $\pistroke$ formalism to examine the binary black hole population in the LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA (LVK) fourth Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-4). Our analysis supports the existence of a gap around $45\,M_\odot$ in the secondary black hole mass distribution and identifies a widening in the distribution of the effective inspiral spin parameter $χ_\text{eff}$ near this mass as recently reported by Tong et al. (2025). Similar to earlier studies, we find support for an anti-correlation between $χ_\text{eff}$ and mass ratio. However, we argue that this may be a spurious correlation arising from misspecification of the joint distribution of black hole masses. Furthermore, we identify support for dimensionless black hole spin magnitudes at approximately $χ\approx 0.2$ and $χ\approx0.7$. The data support the existence of a correlation between the spin magnitudes $χ_1$ and $χ_2$, though subsequent study is required to determine if this feature is statistically significant. The accompanying data release includes $\pistroke$ samples, which can be used to compare theoretical predictions to LVK data and to assess assumptions in parameterised models.

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arXiv2025

Do both black holes spin in merging binaries? Evidence from GWTC-4 and astrophysical implications

Angular momentum transport in high-mass stars is commonly modeled by extrapolating the behavior of better-observed low-mass stars. According to the conventional picture, the cores of most black hole progenitors lose almost all of their angular momentum when their outer layers are ejected before core collapse. Accordingly, most black holes are expected to be born with dimensionless spin magnitudes of $χ\lesssim 0.01$, even if some black holes are born with non-negligible spin due to tidal interactions in a progenitor binary. One might therefore expect to find a large fraction of $χ\lesssim 0.01$ black holes in merging binary black hole (BBH) systems. We find that the conventional picture of angular momentum transport is in tension with data from LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA's fourth gravitational-wave transient catalog. We find no support for a sub-population of BBH systems with $χ\lesssim 0.01$. Neither do we find support for a sub-population with only one spinning black hole as expected for tidal spin-up scenarios. Instead, we find evidence for two subpopulations in which both black holes have non-negligible spin. Approximately 84% of BBH systems contain two black holes with modest spins $χ\approx 0.1$ and approximately 16% contain two black holes with large spins $χ\approx 0.8$. These estimates come from our best-fit model, which is favored with natural log Bayes factors $\ln B \gtrsim 3$ over models that require a sub-population of $χ\lesssim 0.01$ black holes, and models that do not contain multiple spin sub-populations. These results are difficult to reconcile with our current understanding of angular momentum transport.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Model-independent dark matter detection with the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory

Searches for annihilating dark matter are often designed with a specific dark matter candidate in mind. However, the space of potential dark matter models is vast, which raises the question: how can we search for dark matter without making strong assumptions about unknown physics. We present a model-independent approach for measuring dark matter annihilation ratios and branching fractions with $γ$-ray event data. By parameterizing the annihilation ratios for seven different channels, we obviate the need to search for a specific dark matter candidate. To demonstrate our approach, we analyse simulated data using the GammaBayes pipeline. Given a 5$σ$ signal, we reconstruct the annihilation ratios for five dominant channels to within 95% credibility. This allows us to reconstruct dark matter annihilation/decay channels without presuming any particular model, thus offering a model-independent approach to indirect dark matter searches in $γ$-ray astronomy. This approach shows that for masses between 0.3-5 TeV we can probe values below the thermal relic velocity annihilation weighted cross-section allowing a 2$σ$ detection for 525 hours of simulated observation data by the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory of the Galactic Centre.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

A search for extra polarisations using a Gaussian process in Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogue 3

General relativity predicts that gravitational waves are described by two polarisation states: the plus $+$ state and cross $\times$ state. However, alternate theories of gravity allow up to six polarisations. We employ the gravitational-wave null stream, a linear combination of three or more detectors where the $+$ and $\times$ signals add to zero, leaving behind noise and potentially gravitational waves in non-standard polarisation states. We develop a Gaussian process model to search for extra polarisations beyond general relativity. Using data from 42 three-detector events from LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's Third Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogue, we find no evidence of non-standard polarisations. We set upper limits on the fractional deviation in gravitational-wave strain to be as low as 0.39 at 90% credibility for the event GW190602_175927.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Progress toward the detection of the gravitational-wave background from stellar-mass binary black holes: a mock data challenge

While the third LIGO--Virgo gravitational-wave transient catalog includes 90 signals, it is believed that ${\cal O}(10^5)$ binary black holes merge somewhere in the Universe every year. Although these signals are too weak to be detected individually with current observatories, they combine to create a stochastic background, which is potentially detectable in the near future. LIGO--Virgo searches for the gravitational-wave background using cross-correlation have so far yielded upper limits. However, Smith \& Thrane (2017) showed that a vastly more sensitive ``coherent'' search can be carried out by incorporating information about the phase evolution of binary black hole signals. This improved sensitivity comes at a cost; the coherent method is computationally expensive and requires a far more detailed understanding of systematic errors than is required for the cross-correlation search. In this work, we demonstrate the coherent approach with realistic data, paving the way for a gravitational-wave background search with unprecedented sensitivity.

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arXiv2025

Inferring jet physics from neutron star - black hole mergers with gravitational waves

Neutron star - black hole (NSBH) mergers that undergo tidal disruption may launch jets that could power a gamma-ray burst. We use a population of simulated NSBH systems to measure jet parameters from the gravitational waves emitted by these systems. The conditions during the tidal disruption and merger phase required to power a gamma-ray burst are uncertain. It is likely that the system must achieve some minimum remnant baryonic mass after the merger before a jet can be launched to power a gamma-ray burst. Assuming a fiducial neutron star equation of state, we show how Bayesian hierarchical inference can be used to infer the minimum remnant mass required to launch a gamma-ray burst jet as well as the maximum gamma-ray burst viewing angle to detect a gamma-ray burst. We find that with 200 NSBH observations, we can measure the minimum disk mass to within 0.01 solar masses at 90% credibility. We simultaneously infer the maximum gamma-ray burst viewing angle to within 13 degrees at 90% credibility. We conclude that upcoming upgrades to the LIGO observatories may provide important new insights into the physics of NSBH jets.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

An introduction to Bayesian inference in gravitational-wave astronomy: parameter estimation, model selection, and hierarchical models

This is an introduction to Bayesian inference with a focus on hierarchical models and hyper-parameters. We write primarily for an audience of Bayesian novices, but we hope to provide useful insights for seasoned veterans as well. Examples are drawn from gravitational-wave astronomy, though we endeavor for the presentation to be understandable to a broader audience. We begin with a review of the fundamentals: likelihoods, priors, and posteriors. Next, we discuss Bayesian evidence, Bayes factors, odds ratios, and model selection. From there, we describe how posteriors are estimated using samplers such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and nested sampling. Finally, we generalize the formalism to discuss hyper-parameters and hierarchical models. We include extensive appendices discussing the creation of credible intervals, Gaussian noise, explicit marginalization, posterior predictive distributions, and selection effects.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Quantifying the coincidence between gravitational waves and fast radio bursts from neutron star - black hole mergers

Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are mysterious astrophysical transients whose origin and mechanism remain unclear. Compact object mergers may be a promising channel to produce some FRBs. Neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers could produce FRBs through mechanisms involving neutron star tidal disruption or magnetospheric disturbances. This could present an opportunity for multi-messenger gravitational-wave observations, providing new insight into the nature of FRBs and nuclear matter. However, some of the gravitational-wave signals may be marginal detections with signal-to-noise ratios < 8 or have large sky location and distance uncertainties, making it less straightforward to confidently associate an FRB with the gravitational-wave signal. One must therefore take care to avoid a false positive association. We demonstrate how to do this with simulated data. We calculate the posterior odds -- a measurement of our relative belief for a common versus unrelated origin of a coincident NSBH and FRB. We find that a coincident FRB+NSBH from a common source can yield a statistically significant posterior odds in a network with at least two observatories, but only if we require a coincidence in time and and sky location, rather than time alone. However, we find that for our model, we require a network signal-to-noise ratio greater than 10 to be confident in the common-source detection, when using a threshold of ln odds > 8. We suggest that a coincident NSBH+FRB detection could help distinguish between FRB engines by discriminating between disrupting and non-disrupting models.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Modelling noise in gravitational-wave observatories with transdimensional models

Modelling noise in gravitational-wave observatories is crucial for accurately inferring the properties of gravitational-wave sources. We introduce a transdimensional Bayesian approach to characterise the noise in ground-based gravitational-wave observatories using the Bayesian inference software $\texttt{Bilby}$. The algorithm models broadband noise with a combination of power laws; narrowband features with Lorentzians; and shapelets to capture any additional features in the data. We show that our noise model provides a significantly improved fit of the LIGO and Virgo noise amplitude spectral densities compared to currently available noise fits obtained with on-source data segments. We perform astrophysical inference on well-known events in the third Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog using our noise model and observe shifts of up to $7\%$ in the $90\%$ boundaries of credible intervals for some parameters. We discuss plans to deploy this framework systematically for gravitational-wave inference along with possible areas of improvement.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Significant challenges for astrophysical inference with next-generation gravitational-wave observatories

The next generation of gravitational-wave observatories will achieve unprecedented strain sensitivities with an expanded observing band. They will detect ${\cal O}(10^5)$ binary neutron star (BNS) mergers every year, the loudest of which will be in the band for $\approx 90$ minutes with signal-to-noise ratios $\approx 1500$. Current techniques will not be able to determine the astrophysical parameters of the loudest of next-gen BNS signals. We show that subtleties arising from the rotation of the Earth and the free-spectral range of gravitational-wave interferometers dramatically increases the complexity of next-gen BNS signals compared to the one-minute signals seen by LIGO--Virgo. Various compression methods currently relied upon to speed up the most expensive BNS calculations -- reduced-order quadrature, multi-banding, and relative binning -- will no longer be effective. We carry out reduced-order inference on a simulated next-gen BNS signal taking into account the Earth's rotation and the observatories' free-spectral range. We show that standard data compression techniques become impractical, and the full problem becomes computationally infeasible, when we include data below $\approx 16$Hz -- a part of the observing band that is critical for precise sky localisation. We discuss potential paths towards solving this complex problem.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

The birth mass function of neutron stars

The birth mass function of neutron stars encodes rich information about supernova explosions, double star evolution, and properties of matter under extreme conditions. To date, it has remained poorly constrained by observations, however. Applying probabilistic corrections to account for mass accreted by recycled pulsars in binary systems to mass measurements of 90 neutron stars, we find that the birth masses of neutron stars can be described by a unimodal distribution that smoothly turns on at $1.1 M_{\odot}$, peaks at $1.27 M_{\odot}$, before declining as a steep power law. Such a ``turn-on" power-law distribution is strongly favoured against the widely-adopted empirical double-Gaussian model at the $3 σ$ level. The power-law shape may be inherited from the initial mass function of massive stars, but the relative dearth of massive neutron stars implies that single stars with initial masses greater than $\approx 18 M_{\odot}$ do not form neutron stars, in agreement with the absence of massive red supergiant progenitors to supernovae.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Spinning spectral sirens: Robust cosmological measurement using mass-spin correlations in the binary black hole population

Gravitational waves from compact binary mergers provide a direct measurement of luminosity distance, which, in combination with redshift information, serves as a cosmological probe. In order to statistically infer merger redshifts, the ``spectral standard siren" method relies on features, such as peaks, dips or breaks, in the compact object mass spectrum, which get redshifted in the detector-frame relative to the source-frame. However, if the source-frame location of these features evolves over cosmic time, the spectral siren measurement may be biased. Some features, such as the edges of the pair-instability supernova mass gap, may be more stable than others. We point out that binary black hole (BBH) spins, which are not redshifted in the detector-frame, provide a natural way to identify robust mass scales for spectral siren cosmology. For example, there is recent evidence for a mass scale in the BBH population that separates slowly spinning from more rapidly spinning BBH mergers, consistent with the lower edge of the pair instability gap. Applying our method to data from LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's third transient catalog, we demonstrate how to isolate this mass scale and produce a robust ``spinning spectral siren" measurement of the Hubble constant: $H_0 = 85^{+99}_{-67}\,\rm{km}\, \rm{s}^{-1} \rm{Mpc}^{-1}$, or $H_0 =80^{+60}_{-46}\,\rm{km}\, \rm{s}^{-1} \rm{Mpc}^{-1}$ when combined with other mass features, such as the $\sim35\,M_\odot$ peak. We consider the possibility that the source-frame location of the $\sim35\,M_\odot$ peak evolves with redshift, and show that information from black hole spin can be used to mitigate the associated bias for self-calibrating spectral sirens.

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arXiv2025

Choosing suitable noise models for nanohertz gravitational-wave astrophysics

Accurately estimating the parameters of the nanohertz gravitational-wave background is essential for understanding its origin. The background is typically modeled with a power-law spectrum, parametrized with an amplitude $A$, which describes its intensity, and a spectral index $γ$, which describes how the background varies with frequency. Different collaborations have produced varied estimates of $γ$, some in tension with the value of $γ= 13/3$ expected for circular, gravitational-wave-driven binary black holes. However, estimates of $A$ and $γ$ can be affected by systematic errors and misspecified noise models. We investigate how systematic errors, which may plausibly be present in pulsar-timing analyses, can shift inferences about $A, γ$. We demonstrate that conservatively incorporating noise sources into the model that are not actually present in the data does not produce bias inferences in practice. This addresses concerns that an overly complex noise model might lead to bias from a needlessly conservative prior. Our results highlight the importance of using comprehensive noise models in pulsar timing analyses to ensure accurate and reliable parameter estimation of the gravitational-wave background.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Transdimensional inference for gravitational-wave astronomy with Bilby

It has become increasingly useful to answer questions in gravitational-wave astronomy using transdimensional models where the number of free parameters can be varied depending on the complexity required to fit the data. Given the growing interest in transdimensional inference, we introduce a new package for the Bayesian inference Library (Bilby) called tBilby. The tBilby package allows users to set up transdimensional inference calculations using the existing Bilby architecture with off-the-shelf nested samplers and/or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Transdimensional models are particularly helpful when we seek to test theoretically uncertain predictions described by phenomenological models. For example, bursts of gravitational waves can be modelled using a superposition of N wavelets where N is itself a free parameter. Short pulses are modelled with small values of N whereas longer, more complicated signals are represented with a large number of wavelets stitched together. Other transdimensional models have found use describing instrumental noise and the population properties of gravitational-wave sources. We provide a few demonstrations of tBilby, including fitting the gravitational-wave signal GW150914 with a superposition of N sine-Gaussian wavelets. We outline our plans to further develop the tbilby code suite for a broader range of transdimensional problems.

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arXiv2024

The MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array: The first search for gravitational waves with the MeerKAT radio telescope

Pulsar Timing Arrays search for nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves by regularly observing ensembles of millisecond pulsars over many years to look for correlated timing residuals. Recently the first evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background has been presented by the major Arrays, with varying levels of significance ($\sim$2-4$σ$). In this paper we present the results of background searches with the MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array. Although of limited duration (4.5 yr), the $\sim$ 250,000 arrival times with a median error of just $3 μ$s on 83 pulsars make it very sensitive to spatial correlations. Detection of a gravitational wave background requires careful modelling of noise processes to ensure that any correlations represent a fit to the underlying background and not other misspecified processes. Under different assumptions about noise processes we can produce either what appear to be compelling Hellings-Downs correlations of high significance (3-3.4$σ$) with a spectrum close to that which is predicted, or surprisingly, under slightly different assumptions, ones that are insignificant. This appears to be related to the fact that many of the highest precision MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array pulsars are in close proximity and dominate the detection statistics. The sky-averaged characteristic strain amplitude of the correlated signal in our most significant model is $h_{c, {\rm yr}} = 7.5^{+0.8}_{-0.9} \times 10^{-15}$ measured at a spectral index of $α=-0.26$, decreasing to $h_{c, {\rm yr}} = 4.8^{+0.8}_{-0.9} \times 10^{-15}$ when assessed at the predicted $α=-2/3$. These data will be valuable as the International Pulsar Timing Array project explores the significance of gravitational wave detections and their dependence on the assumed noise models.

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