arXiv subjects

Fabrizio Ruggeri

Publications and source records attributed to Fabrizio Ruggeri.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

SCOPE Shrinkage: A Unified Framework for Wavelet Denoising

We introduce Symmetric CDF Oriented Probability Enhanced (SCOPE) shrinkage, a unified family of sign-preserving shrinkage rules constructed from centered cumulative distribution functions of symmetric unimodal distributions. The proposed framework generates a broad class of attenuation profiles that interpolate between strong local shrinkage near zero and asymptotically unbiased behavior in the tails. A general formulation is developed that separates scale and shape effects through two interpretable parameters, allowing effective threshold location and transition sharpness to be controlled independently. Under explicit regularity assumptions, structural properties of SCOPE shrinkage are established, including oddness, monotonicity, continuity, contractivity, and a mixture representation that connects the rules to softened thresholding operators. A Bayesian and penalized likelihood interpretation is also developed: SCOPE rules admit even penalty representations that are nondecreasing in coefficient magnitude, and suitable subclasses arise as exact maximum a posteriori estimators under proper symmetric unimodal priors. Representative examples based on logistic, uniform, and Cauchy distributions illustrate how probabilistic shape governs shrinkage behavior. Data driven parameter selection for smooth subclasses is discussed via Stein-type unbiased risk estimation. Oracle calibrated simulation studies on standard Donoho-Johnstone test functions show that SCOPE shrinkage performs competitively with several established wavelet denoising methods, while retaining a high degree of interpretability and structural flexibility. The results highlight centered distribution functions as a natural and versatile design principle for shrinkage in wavelet denoising and related estimation problems.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

A Noise Resilient Approach for Robust Hurst Exponent Estimation

Understanding signal behavior across scales is vital in areas such as natural phenomena analysis and financial modeling. A key property is self-similarity, quantified by the Hurst exponent (H), which reveals long-term dependencies. Wavelet-based methods are effective for estimating H due to their multi-scale analysis capability, but additive noise in real-world measurements often degrades accuracy. We propose Noise-Controlled ALPHEE (NC-ALPHEE), an enhancement of the Average Level-Pairwise Hurst Exponent Estimator (ALPHEE), incorporating noise mitigation and generating multiple level-pairwise estimates from signal energy pairs. A neural network (NN) combines these estimates, replacing traditional averaging. This adaptive learning maintains ALPHEE's behavior in noise-free cases while improving performance in noisy conditions. Extensive simulations show that in noise-free data, NC-ALPHEE matches ALPHEE's accuracy using both averaging and NN-based methods. Under noise, however, traditional averaging deteriorates and requires impractical level restrictions, while NC-ALPHEE consistently outperforms existing techniques without such constraints. NC-ALPHEE offers a robust, adaptive approach for H estimation, significantly enhancing the reliability of wavelet-based methods in noisy environments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Generative Bayesian Computation for Maximum Expected Utility

Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) methods are developed to provide an efficient computational solution for maximum expected utility (MEU). We propose a density-free generative method based on quantiles that naturally calculates expected utility as a marginal of quantiles. Our approach uses a deep quantile neural estimator to directly estimate distributional utilities. Generative methods assume only the ability to simulate from the model and parameters and as such are likelihood-free. A large training dataset is generated from parameters and output together with a base distribution. Our method a number of computational advantages primarily being density-free with an efficient estimator of expected utility. A link with the dual theory of expected utility and risk taking is also discussed. To illustrate our methodology, we solve an optimal portfolio allocation problem with Bayesian learning and a power utility (a.k.a. fractional Kelly criterion). Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2024

Likelihood distortion and Bayesian local robustness

Robust Bayesian analysis has been mainly devoted to detecting and measuring robustness w.r.t. the prior distribution. Many contributions in the literature aim to define suitable classes of priors which allow the computation of variations of quantities of interest while the prior changes within those classes. The literature has devoted much less attention to the robustness of Bayesian methods w.r.t. the likelihood function due to mathematical and computational complexity, and because it is often arguably considered a more objective choice compared to the prior. In this contribution, we propose a new approach to Bayesian local robustness, mainly focusing on robustness w.r.t. the likelihood function. Successively, we extend it to account for robustness w.r.t. the prior, as well as the prior and the likelihood jointly. This approach is based on the notion of distortion function introduced in the literature on risk theory. The novel robustness measure is a local sensitivity measure that turns out to be very tractable and easy to compute for several classes of distortion functions. Asymptotic properties are derived, and numerical experiments illustrate the theory and its applicability for modelling purposes.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

A bivariate two-state Markov modulated Poisson process for failure modelling

Motivated by a real failure dataset in a two-dimensional context, this paper presents an extension of the Markov modulated Poisson process (MMPP) to two dimensions. The one-dimensional MMPP has been proposed for the modeling of dependent and non-exponential inter-failure times (in contexts as queuing, risk or reliability, among others). The novel two-dimensional MMPP allows for dependence between the two sequences of inter-failure times, while at the same time preserves the MMPP properties, marginally. The generalization is based on the Marshall-Olkin exponential distribution. Inference is undertaken for the new model through a method combining a matching moments approach with an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm. The performance of the method is shown on simulated and real datasets representing times and distances covered between consecutive failures in a public transport company. For the real dataset, some quantities of importance associated with the reliability of the system are estimated as the probabilities and expected number of failures at different times and distances covered by trains until the occurrence of a failure.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Optimal Clustering with Dependent Costs in Bayesian Networks

Background: Clustering of nodes in Bayesian Networks (BNs) and related graphical models such as Dynamic BNs (DBNs) has been demonstrated to enhance computational efficiency and improve model learning. It typically involves partitioning the underlying Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) into cliques or optimising for some cost or criteria. Objectives: We focus on a critical but understudied aspect of optimal clustering involving cost dependency. This is where inference outcomes and hence clustering costs depend on both nodes within a cluster and the mapping of clusters that are connected by at least one arc. Methods: We propose a novel algorithm called Dependent Cluster MAPping (DCMAP) which can, given an arbitrary, positive cost function, iteratively and rapidly find near-optimal, then optimal cluster mappings. Results: DCMAP is shown analytically to be optimal in terms of finding all of the least cost cluster mapping solutions and with no more iterations than an equally informed algorithm. Demonstrated on a complex systems seagrass DBN with $9.91\times10^9$ and $1.51\times10^{21}$ possible cluster mappings for 25 and 50 node configurations, it took 856 and 1569 iterations on average to find the first optimal solution, respectively. Conclusions: The effectiveness of DCMAP enables future research in BN learning using optimisation, such as through enhancing computational efficiency or minimising entropy for learning. This is critically important as computation of marginal distributions or updating model parameters is NP-hard.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2023

Current Overview of Statistical Fiber Bundles Model and Its Application to Physics-based Reliability Analysis of Thin-film Dielectrics

In this paper, we present a critical overview of statistical fiber bundles models. We discuss relevant aspects, like assumptions and consequences stemming from models in the literature and propose new ones. This is accomplished by concentrating on both the physical and statistical aspects of a specific load-sharing example, the breakdown (BD) for circuits of capacitors and related dielectrics. For series and parallel/series circuits (series/parallel reliability systems) of ordinary capacitors, the load-sharing rules are derived from the electrical laws. This with the BD formalism is then used to obtain the BD distribution of the circuit. The BD distribution and Gibbs measure are given for a series circuit and the size effects are illustrated for simulations of series and parallel/series circuits. This is related to the finite weakest link adjustments for the BD distribution that arise in large series/parallel reliability load-sharing systems, such as dielectric BD, from their extreme value approximations. An elementary but in-depth discussion of the physical aspects of SiO$_2$ and HfO$_2$ dielectrics and cell models is given. This is used to study a load-sharing cell model for the BD of HfO$_2$ dielectrics and the BD formalism. The latter study is based on an analysis of Kim and Lee (2004)'s data for such dielectrics. Here, several BD distributions are compared in the analysis and proportional hazard regression models are used to study the BD formalism. In addition, some areas of open research are discussed.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2022

A predictive model for planning emergency events rescue during COVID-19 in Lombardy, Italy

Italy, particularly the Lombardy region, was among the first countries outside of Asia to report cases of COVID-19. The emergency medical service called Regional Emergency Agency (AREU) coordinates the intra- and inter-regional non-hospital emergency network and the European emergency number service in Lombardy. AREU must deal with daily and seasonal variations of call volume. The number and type of emergency calls changed dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. A model to predict incoming calls and how many of these turn into events, i.e., dispatch of transport and equipment until the rescue is completed, was developed to address the emergency period. We used the generalized additive model with a negative binomial family to predict the number of events one, two, five, and seven days ahead. The over-dispersion of the data was tackled by using the negative binomial family and the nonlinear relationship between the number of events and covariates (e.g., seasonal effects) by smoothing splines. The model coefficients show the effect of variables, e.g., the day of the week, on the number of events and how these effects change during the pre-COVID-19 period. The proposed model returns reasonable mean absolute errors for most of the 2020-2021 period.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

A stochastic SIR model for the analysis of the COVID-19 Italian epidemic

We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the population. We find that a correct assessment of the amount of under-detection is important to obtain reliable estimates of the critical model parameters. Moreover, a single SIR model over the whole epidemic period is unable to correctly describe the behaviour of the pandemic. Then, the adaptation of the model in every time-interval between relevant government decrees that implement contagion mitigation measures, provides short-term predictions and a continuously updated assessment of the basic reproduction number.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Protecting Classifiers From Attacks

In multiple domains such as malware detection, automated driving systems, or fraud detection, classification algorithms are susceptible to being attacked by malicious agents willing to perturb the value of instance covariates to pursue certain goals. Such problems pertain to the field of adversarial machine learning and have been mainly dealt with, perhaps implicitly, through game-theoretic ideas with strong underlying common knowledge assumptions. These are not realistic in numerous application domains in relation to security and business competition. We present an alternative Bayesian decision theoretic framework that accounts for the uncertainty about the attacker's behavior using adversarial risk analysis concepts. In doing so, we also present core ideas in adversarial machine learning to a statistical audience. A key ingredient in our framework is the ability to sample from the distribution of originating instances given the, possibly attacked, observed ones. We propose an initial procedure based on approximate Bayesian computation usable during operations; within it, we simulate the attacker's problem taking into account our uncertainty about his elements. Large-scale problems require an alternative scalable approach implementable during the training stage. Globally, we are able to robustify statistical classification algorithms against malicious attacks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Duality between Approximate Bayesian Methods and Prior Robustness

In this paper we show that there is a link between approximate Bayesian methods and prior robustness. We show that what is typically recognized as an approximation to the likelihood, either due to the simulated data as in the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods or due to the functional approximation to the likelihood, can instead also be viewed upon as an implicit exercise in prior robustness. We first define two new classes of priors for the cases where the sufficient statistics is available, establish their mathematical properties and show, for a simple illustrative example, that these classes of priors can also be used to obtain the posterior distribution that would be obtained by implementing ABC. We then generalize and define two further classes of priors that are applicable in very general scenarios; one where the sufficient statistics is not available and another where the likelihood is approximated using a functional approximation. We then discuss the interpretation and elicitation aspects of the classes proposed here as well as their potential applications and possible computational benefits. These classes establish the duality between approximate Bayesian inference and prior robustness for a wide category of Bayesian inference methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Adversarial classification: An adversarial risk analysis approach

Classification problems in security settings are usually contemplated as confrontations in which one or more adversaries try to fool a classifier to obtain a benefit. Most approaches to such adversarial classification problems have focused on game theoretical ideas with strong underlying common knowledge assumptions, which are actually not realistic in security domains. We provide an alternative framework to such problem based on adversarial risk analysis, which we illustrate with several examples. Computational and implementation issues are discussed.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Likelihood-free parameter estimation for dynamic queueing networks: case study of passenger flow in an international airport terminal

Dynamic queueing networks (DQN) model queueing systems where demand varies strongly with time, such as airport terminals. With rapidly rising global air passenger traffic placing increasing pressure on airport terminals, efficient allocation of resources is more important than ever. Parameter inference and quantification of uncertainty are key challenges for developing decision support tools. The DQN likelihood function is, in general, intractable and current approaches to simulation make likelihood-free parameter inference methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), infeasible since simulating from these models is computationally expensive. By leveraging a recent advance in computationally efficient queueing simulation, we develop the first parameter inference approach for DQNs. We demonstrate our approach with data of passenger flows in a real airport terminal, and we show that our model accurately recreates the behaviour of the system and is useful for decision support. Special care must be taken in developing the distance for ABC since any useful output must vary with time. We use maximum mean discrepancy, a metric on probability measures, as the distance function for ABC. Prediction intervals of performance measures for decision support tools are easily constructed using draws from posterior samples, which we demonstrate with a scenario of a delayed flight.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Computationally Efficient Simulation of Queues: The R Package queuecomputer

Large networks of queueing systems model important real-world systems such as MapReduce clusters, web-servers, hospitals, call centers and airport passenger terminals. To model such systems accurately, we must infer queueing parameters from data. Unfortunately, for many queueing networks there is no clear way to proceed with parameter inference from data. Approximate Bayesian computation could offer a straightforward way to infer parameters for such networks if we could simulate data quickly enough. We present a computationally efficient method for simulating from a very general set of queueing networks with the R package queuecomputer. Remarkable speedups of more than 2 orders of magnitude are observed relative to the popular DES packages simmer and simpy. We replicate output from these packages to validate the package. The package is modular and integrates well with the popular R package dplyr. Complex queueing networks with tandem, parallel and fork/join topologies can easily be built with these two packages together. We show how to use this package with two examples: a call center and an airport terminal.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2019

Modelling the Proliferation of Terrorism via Diffusion and Contagion

The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern in national and international security, as its spread is seen as an existential threat to Western liberal democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the spread of terrorism provides useful insight into formulating effective responses. A mathematical model capturing the theoretical constructs of contagion and diffusion is constructed for explaining the spread of terrorist activity and used to analyse data from the Global Terrorism Database from 2000--2016 for Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

A hierarchical Bayesian setting for an inverse problem in linear parabolic PDEs with noisy boundary conditions

In this work we develop a Bayesian setting to infer unknown parameters in initial-boundary value problems related to linear parabolic partial differential equations. We realistically assume that the boundary data are noisy, for a given prescribed initial condition. We show how to derive the joint likelihood function for the forward problem, given some measurements of the solution field subject to Gaussian noise. Given Gaussian priors for the time-dependent Dirichlet boundary values, we analytically marginalize the joint likelihood using the linearity of the equation. Our hierarchical Bayesian approach is fully implemented in an example that involves the heat equation. In this example, the thermal diffusivity is the unknown parameter. We assume that the thermal diffusivity parameter can be modeled a priori through a lognormal random variable or by means of a space-dependent stationary lognormal random field. Synthetic data are used to test the inference. We exploit the behavior of the non-normalized log posterior distribution of the thermal diffusivity. Then, we use the Laplace method to obtain an approximated Gaussian posterior and therefore avoid costly Markov Chain Monte Carlo computations. Expected information gains and predictive posterior densities for observable quantities are numerically estimated using Laplace approximation for different experimental setups.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Imprecise Dirichlet Process with application to the hypothesis test on the probability that X< Y

The Dirichlet process (DP) is one of the most popular Bayesian nonparametric models. An open problem with the DP is how to choose its infinite dimensional parameter (base measure) in case of lack of prior information. In this work we present the Imprecise DP (IDP) -- a prior near-ignorance DP-based model that does not require any choice of this probability measure. It consists of a class of DPs obtained by letting the normalized base measure of the DP vary in the set of all probability measures. We discuss the tight connections of this approach with Bayesian robustness and in particular prior near-ignorance modeling via sets of probabilities. We use this model to perform a Bayesian hypothesis test on the probability P(X<Y). We study the theoretical properties of the IDP test (e.g., asymptotic consistency), and compare it with the frequentist Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon rank test that is commonly employed as a test on P(X< Y). In particular we will show that our method is more robust, in the sense that it is able to isolate instances in which the aforementioned test is virtually guessing at random.

math.ST↗