arXiv subjects

Fan Li

Publications and source records attributed to Fan Li.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Impact of Intelligent Technologies on IoV Security: Integrating Edge Computing and AI

The rapid development and integration of intelligent technologies in the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) have revolutionized transportation systems by enhancing connectivity, automation, and safety. However, the complexity and connectivity of IoV networks also introduce security challenges, including data privacy concerns, cyber threats, and system vulnerabilities. This paper surveys the role of Edge Computing (EC), Machine Learning (ML), and Deep Learning (DL) in strengthening IoV security frameworks. It examines the synergy between these technologies, highlighting their individual capabilities and their collective impact on enhancing threat detection, response times, and adaptive security. Through real world case studies and practical deployments, we demonstrate how EC, ML, and DL are currently improving security and operational efficiency in IoV systems. The paper also identifies key research gaps and future directions for further advancements in IoV security, including the need for scalable, privacy preserving solutions and robust defense mechanisms against emerging cyber threats. By integrating EC, ML, and DL, this work lays the groundwork for developing adaptive, efficient, and resilient IoV security infrastructures capable of addressing evolving challenges in the transportation ecosystem.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Fixed-Effects Models for Causal Inference in Longitudinal Cluster Randomized and Quasi-Experimental Trials

This article investigates the model-robustness of fixed-effects models for analyzing a broad class of longitudinal cluster trials (CTs) such as stepped-wedge, parallel-with-baseline and crossover designs, encompassing both randomized (CRTs) and quasi-experimental (CQTs) designs. We clarify a longstanding misconception in biostatistics, demonstrating that fixed-effects models, traditionally perceived as targeting only finite-sample conditional estimands, can effectively target super-population marginal estimands through an M-estimation framework. We comprehensively prove that linear and log-link fixed-effects models with correctly specified treatment effect structures can broadly yield consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for nonparametrically defined treatment effect estimands in longitudinal CRTs, even under arbitrary misspecification of other model components. We identify that the constant treatment effect estimator generally targets the period-average treatment effect for the overlap population (P-ATO); accordingly, some CRT designs don't even require correct specification of the treatment effect structure for model-robustness. We further characterize conditions where fixed-effects models can maintain consistency by adjusting for both cluster-level and individual-level time-invariant confounding in longitudinal CQTs. Altogether, supported by simulation and a case study re-analysis, we establish fixed-effects models as a robust and potentially preferable alternative to mixed-effects models for longitudinal CT analysis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Generalized win fraction regression for composite survival endpoints

We propose a generalized win fraction regression framework for prioritized composite survival outcomes. The framework models the conditional win fraction through a chosen link function (including identity, logit, or probit), thereby accommodating multi-component time-to-event endpoints within a unified regression structure. To handle right censoring, we construct inverse-probability-of-censoring-weighted estimating equations that target the win fraction as if censoring were absent. Under the identity link, regression parameters characterize covariate associations on the natural win fraction scale. Under the logit link, they characterize the log odds of winning -- a new and complementary effect measure that treats ties as failures to win, imposing a more conservative standard than the win ratio or win odds. When there are no ties, the logit win fraction model reduces to proportional win fraction regression; moreover, the unweighted version of our estimating equations numerically coincides with the proportional win fraction point estimator regardless of ties. We establish large-sample properties of the proposed estimators and derive a consistent sandwich variance estimator that accounts for uncertainty from the estimated censoring weights. Extensive simulations examine finite-sample performance across link functions and censoring rates, and our method is illustrated through a reanalysis of the HF-ACTION clinical trial.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Enhancing Foundation VLM Robustness to Missing Modality: Scalable Diffusion for Bi-directional Feature Restoration

Vision Language Model (VLM) typically assume complete modality input during inference. However, their effectiveness drops sharply when certain modalities are unavailable or incomplete. Current research on missing modality primarily faces two dilemmas: Prompt-based methods struggle to restore missing yet indispensable features and degrade the generalizability of VLM. Imputation-based approaches, lacking effective guidance, are prone to generating semantically irrelevant noise. Restoring precise semantics while sustaining VLM's generalization remains challenging. Therefore, we propose a general missing modality restoration strategy in this paper. We introduce an enhanced diffusion model as a pluggable mid-stage training module to effectively restore missing features. Our strategy introduces two key innovations: (I) Dynamic Modality Gating, which adaptively leverages conditional features to guide the generation of semantically consistent features; (II) Cross-Modal Mutual Learning mechanism, which bridges the semantic spaces of the dual models to achieve bi-directional alignment. Notably, our strategy maintains the original integrity of the pre-trained VLM, requiring no fine-tuning of the backbone models while significantly boosting resilience to information loss. Zero-shot evaluations across benchmark datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms existing baselines, establishing it as a robust and scalable extension that ensures VLM reliability across diverse missing rates and conditions. Our code and models will be publicly available.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Two-stage Least Squares with Clustered Data under the Local Average Treatment Effect Framework

To estimate the causal effect of an endogenous treatment using clustered data, the canonical two-stage least squares (2sls) estimates a linear regression of the outcome on treatment status using an instrumental variable (IV) and conducts inference with cluster-robust standard errors. When both the treatment and the IV vary within clusters, an alternative two-stage least squares with fixed effects (2sfe) additionally includes cluster indicators in the regression, thereby incorporating cluster information into point estimation as well. This paper studies the trade-off between these approaches within the local average treatment effect (LATE) framework. When clusters are homogeneous, we show that both approaches yield valid large-sample inference for the LATE, and that 2sfe is more efficient than canonical 2sls only when the variation in cluster-specific effects dominates idiosyncratic variation and the IV has sufficient within-cluster variation. When clusters are heterogeneous, we show that 2sfe identifies a weighted average of cluster-specific LATEs, whereas the canonical 2sls generally does not. We further propose a test for detecting cluster heterogeneity.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

AeroTherm-GPT: A Verification-Centered LLM Framework for Thermal Protection System Engineering Workflows

Integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) into hypersonic thermal protection system (TPS) design is bottlenecked by cascading constraint violations when generating executable simulation artifacts. General-purpose LLMs, treating generation as single-pass text completion, fail to satisfy the sequential, multi-gate constraints inherent in safety-critical engineering workflows. To address this, we propose AeroTherm-GPT, the first TPS-specialized LLM Agent, instantiated through a Constraint-Closed-Loop Generation (CCLG) framework. CCLG organizes TPS artifact generation as an iterative workflow comprising generation, validation, CDG-guided repair, execution, and audit. The Constraint Dependency Graph (CDG) encodes empirical co-resolution structure among constraint categories, directing repair toward upstream fault candidates based on lifecycle ordering priors and empirical co-resolution probabilities. This upstream-priority mechanism resolves multiple downstream violations per action, achieving a Root-Cause Fix Efficiency of 4.16 versus 1.76 for flat-checklist repair. Evaluated on HyTPS-Bench and validated against external benchmarks, AeroTherm-GPT achieves 88.7% End-to-End Success Rate (95% CI: 87.5-89.9), a gain of +12.5 pp over the matched non-CDG ablation baseline, without catastrophic forgetting on scientific reasoning and code generation tasks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

ColorFLUX: A Structure-Color Decoupling Framework for Old Photo Colorization

Old photos preserve invaluable historical memories, making their restoration and colorization highly desirable. While existing restoration models can address some degradation issues like denoising and scratch removal, they often struggle with accurate colorization. This limitation arises from the unique degradation inherent in old photos, such as faded brightness and altered color hues, which are different from modern photo distributions, creating a substantial domain gap during colorization. In this paper, we propose a novel old photo colorization framework based on the generative diffusion model FLUX. Our approach introduces a structure-color decoupling strategy that separates structure preservation from color restoration, enabling accurate colorization of old photos while maintaining structural consistency. We further enhance the model with a progressive Direct Preference Optimization (Pro-DPO) strategy, which allows the model to learn subtle color preferences through coarse-to-fine transitions in color augmentation. Additionally, we address the limitations of text-based prompts by introducing visual semantic prompts, which extract fine-grained semantic information directly from old photos, helping to eliminate the color bias inherent in old photos. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art colorization methods, including closed-source commercial models, producing high-quality and vivid colorization.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

CREval: An Automated Interpretable Evaluation for Creative Image Manipulation under Complex Instructions

Instruction-based multimodal image manipulation has recently made rapid progress. However, existing evaluation methods lack a systematic and human-aligned framework for assessing model performance on complex and creative editing tasks. To address this gap, we propose CREval, a fully automated question-answer (QA)-based evaluation pipeline that overcomes the incompleteness and poor interpretability of opaque Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) scoring. Simultaneously, we introduce CREval-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for creative image manipulation under complex instructions. CREval-Bench covers three categories and nine creative dimensions, comprising over 800 editing samples and 13K evaluation queries. Leveraging this pipeline and benchmark, we systematically evaluate a diverse set of state-of-the-art open and closed-source models. The results reveal that while closed-source models generally outperform open-source ones on complex and creative tasks, all models still struggle to complete such edits effectively. In addition, user studies demonstrate strong consistency between CREval's automated metrics and human judgments. Therefore, CREval provides a reliable foundation for evaluating image editing models on complex and creative image manipulation tasks, and highlights key challenges and opportunities for future research.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Identification and estimation of causal mechanisms in cluster-randomized trials with post-treatment confounding using Bayesian nonparametrics

Causal mediation analysis in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) is essential for explaining how cluster-level interventions affect individual outcomes, yet it is complicated by interference, post-treatment confounding, and hierarchical covariate adjustment. We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework that simultaneously accommodates interference and a post-treatment confounder that precedes the mediator. Identification is achieved through a multivariate Gaussian copula that replaces cross-world independence with a single dependence parameter, yielding a built-in sensitivity analysis to residual post-treatment confounding. For estimation, we introduce a nested common atoms enriched Dirichlet process (CA-EDP) prior that integrates the Common Atoms Model (CAM) to share information across clusters while capturing between- and within-cluster heterogeneity, and an Enriched Dirichlet Process (EDP) structure delivering robust covariate adjustment without impacting the outcome model. We provide formal theoretical support for our prior by deriving the model's key distributional properties, including its partially exchangeable partition structure, and by establishing convergence guarantees for the practical truncation-based posterior inference strategy. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods in simulations and provide further illustration through a reanalysis of a completed CRT.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Sample Size Calculation in Cost-Effectiveness Longitudinal Cluster Randomized Trials

Longitudinal cluster randomized trials (L-CRTs) are increasingly used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions across multiple assessment periods, yet design methods for powering these trials remain underdeveloped. Existing methods for cost-effectiveness analyses in cluster settings are limited to simple parallel-arm cluster randomized trials with a single follow-up assessment period. These methods cannot accommodate the complex correlation structures in L-CRTs conducted over multiple periods, which require differentiation between within-period and between-period correlations for both clinical and cost outcomes, as well as between-outcome correlations. Moreover, while substantial methodological advances have been made for the design of L-CRTs with univariate outcomes, none specifically address cost-effectiveness objectives where clinical and cost outcomes must be jointly modeled. We provide a design-stage framework for powering cost-effectiveness L-CRTs across three design variants: parallel-arm, crossover, and stepped wedge designs. We derive closed-form variance expressions for the generalized least squares estimator of the average incremental net monetary benefit under a bivariate linear mixed model. We propose a standardized ceiling ratio that adjusts willingness-to-pay for relative outcome variability to inform optimal design. We then develop local optimal designs that maximize statistical power under known correlation parameters and MaxiMin designs that ensure robust performance across parameter uncertainty for all three design variants. Through a real stepped wedge trial data example, we demonstrate the sample size calculation for testing intervention cost-effectiveness under local optimal and MaxiMin designs.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Principal stratification with recurrent events truncated by a terminal event: A nested Bayesian nonparametric approach

Recurrent events often serve as key endpoints in clinical studies but may be prematurely truncated by terminal events such as death, creating selection bias and complicating causal inference. To address this challenge, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework to address potential selection bias due to truncation by death within the continuous-time principal stratification framework. We introduce causal estimands for recurrent events in the presence of a terminal event and derive a partial identification result for the estimand under a dual-frailty framework, enabling transparent sensitivity analysis for non-identifiable parameters. We then propose a flexible Bayesian nonparametric prior, the enriched dependent Dirichlet process, specifically designed for joint modeling of recurrent and terminal events, addressing a limitation where standard Dirichlet process priors create random partitions dominated by recurrent events, yielding poor predictive performance for terminal events. Simulations are carried out to show that our method has superior performance compared to existing methods. We apply the proposed new Bayesian nonparametric methods to infer the causal effect of a structured exercise program on rehospitalizations, which are subject to truncation by death.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

BCMI-Driven Motion Control Detection: EEG-Based Machine Learning and Interaction Entropy for High-Order Brain Networks

This study investigates the cognitive motor control detection and the underlying neuroregulatory mechanisms during music-assisted simulated driving. Using a dynamic higher-order network model constructed with EEG-based cross-information entropy, we quantify the dynamic coordination within brain networks activated during both music listening and driving. This approach, which contrasts with previous static network analyses, provides novel insights into how musical stimuli modulate the complex interplay of brain regions during demanding tasks. Results demonstrated enhanced third-order connectivity and elevated higher-order information entropy in music-stimulated driving compared to baseline driving, as evidenced by increasing Phi values of higher-order network indices. Supervised machine learning, including support vector machines, revealed a strong correlation between model accuracy and ROC-AUC values and the hierarchy of brain network features. This underscores the importance of higher-order features in decoding brain motor-control states during music-simulated driving. These findings deepen our understanding of the interplay between music cognition and motor control, offering valuable insights for the development of novel brain-computer-music interfaces (BCMI) and adaptive human-machine systems to enhance performance in demanding tasks like driving.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2026

CFD-HAR: User-controllable Privacy through Conditional Feature Disentanglement

Modern wearable and mobile devices are equipped with inertial measurement units (IMUs). Human Activity Recognition (HAR) applications running on such devices use machine-learning-based, data-driven techniques that leverage such sensor data. However, sensor-data-driven HAR deployments face two critical challenges: protecting sensitive user information embedded in sensor data in accordance with users' privacy preferences and maintaining high recognition performance with limited labeled samples. This paper proposes a technique for user-controllable privacy through feature disentanglement-based representation learning at the granular level for dynamic privacy filtering. We also compare the efficacy of our technique against few-shot HAR using autoencoder-based representation learning. We analyze their architectural designs, learning objectives, privacy guarantees, data efficiency, and suitability for edge Internet of Things (IoT) deployment. Our study shows that CFD-based HAR provides explicit, tunable privacy protection controls by separating activity and sensitive attributes in the latent space, whereas autoencoder-based few-shot HAR offers superior label efficiency and lightweight adaptability but lacks inherent privacy safeguards. We further examine the security implications of both approaches in continual IoT settings, highlighting differences in susceptibility to representation leakage and embedding-level attacks. The analysis reveals that neither paradigm alone fully satisfies the emerging requirements of next-generation IoT HAR systems. We conclude by outlining research directions toward unified frameworks that jointly optimize privacy preservation, few-shot adaptability, and robustness for trustworthy IoT intelligence.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Forecasting Causal Effects of Future Interventions: Confounding and Transportability Issues

Recent developments in causal inference allow us to transport a causal effect of a time-fixed treatment from a randomized trial to a target population across space but within the same time frame. In contrast to transportability across space, transporting causal effects across time or forecasting causal effects of future interventions is more challenging due to time-varying confounders and time-varying effect modifiers. In this article, we seek to formally clarify the causal estimands for forecasting causal effects over time and the structural assumptions required to identify these estimands. Specifically, we develop a set of novel nonparametric identification formulas--g-computation formulas--for these causal estimands, and lay out the conditions required to accurately forecast causal effects from a past observed sample to a future population in a future time window. Our overarching objective is to leverage the modern causal inference theory to provide a theoretical framework for investigating whether the effects seen in a past sample would carry over to a new future population. Throughout the article, a working example addressing the effect of public policies or social events on COVID-related deaths is considered to contextualize the developments of analytical results.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

From Tokenizer Bias to Backbone Capability: A Controlled Study of LLMs for Time Series Forecasting

Using pre-trained large language models (LLMs) as a backbone for time series prediction has recently attracted growing research interest. Existing approaches typically split time series into patches, map them to the token space of LLMs via a Tokenizer, process the tokens through a frozen or fine-tuned LLM backbone, and then reconstruct numerical forecasts using a Detokenizer. However, the actual effectiveness of LLMs for time series forecasting remains under debate. We observe that when trained and evaluated on small datasets, these Tokenizer-Detokenizer pairs often overfit to the specific data distribution, thereby masking the intrinsic predictive capability of the LLM backbone. To investigate the inherent potential of LLMs in this context, we design three models with identical architectures but distinct pre-training strategies. By leveraging large-scale pre-training, we obtain more unbiased Tokenizer-Detokenizer pairs that are seamlessly integrated with the LLM backbone. Through controlled experiments, we evaluate the zero-shot and few-shot forecasting performance of the LLM, offering insights into its true capabilities. Our extensive experiments reveal that, although the LLM backbone shows some promise, its performance remains limited and does not consistently surpass that of models specifically trained on large-scale time series data. Our source code is publicly available in the repository: https://github.com/SiriZhang45/LLM4TS.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Two-stage least squares with treatment-covariate interactions for treatment effect heterogeneity

Treatment effect heterogeneity with respect to covariates is common in instrumental variable (IV) analyses. An intuitive approach, which we call the interacted two-stage least squares (2sls), is to postulate a working linear model of the outcome on the treatment, covariates, and treatment-covariate interactions, and instrument it using the IV, covariates, and IV-covariate interactions. We clarify the causal interpretation of the interacted 2sls under the local average treatment effect (LATE) framework when the IV is valid conditional on the covariates. Our main findings are threefold. First, we show that the coefficients on the treatment-covariate interactions from the interacted 2sls are consistent for estimating treatment effect heterogeneity with respect to covariates among compliers for any outcome-generating process if and only if the product of the IV propensity score and covariates are linear in the covariates, referred to as the linear IV-covariate interactions condition. Second, assuming that the covariate vector has dimension K and includes a constant term, we show that the linear IV-covariate interactions condition holds only if the IV propensity score takes at most K distinct values. As a result, this condition is difficult to satisfy beyond two special cases: (a) the covariates are categorical with K levels, or (b) the IV is randomly assigned. These results underscore the difficulty of interpreting regression coefficients from specifications with treatment-covariate interactions when the covariates are not saturated and the IV is not unconditionally randomized, absent correct specification of the outcome model. Third, as an application of our theory, we show that the interacted 2sls with demeaned covariates is consistent for estimating the LATE under the linear IV-covariate interactions condition.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Steering and Rectifying Latent Representation Manifolds in Frozen Multi-modal LLMs for Video Anomaly Detection

Video anomaly detection (VAD) aims to identify abnormal events in videos. Traditional VAD methods generally suffer from the high costs of labeled data and full training, thus some recent works have explored leveraging frozen multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) in a tuning-free manner to perform VAD. However, their performance is limited as they directly inherit pre-training biases and cannot adapt internal representations to specific video contexts, leading to difficulties in handling subtle or ambiguous anomalies. To address these limitations, we propose a novel intervention framework, termed SteerVAD, which advances MLLM-based VAD by shifting from passively reading to actively steering and rectifying internal representations. Our approach first leverages the gradient-free representational separability analysis (RSA) to identify top attention heads as latent anomaly experts (LAEs) which are most discriminative for VAD. Then a hierarchical meta-controller (HMC) generates dynamic rectification signals by jointly conditioning on global context and these LAE outputs. The signals execute targeted, anisotropic scaling directly upon the LAE representation manifolds, amplifying anomaly-relevant dimensions while suppressing inherent biases. Extensive experiments on mainstream benchmarks demonstrate our method achieves state-of-the-art performance among tuning-free approaches requiring only 1% of training data, establishing it as a powerful new direction for video anomaly detection. The code will be released upon the publication.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Design-based inference for generalized causal effects in randomized experiments

Generalized causal effect estimands, including the Mann-Whitney parameter and causal net benefit, provide flexible summaries of treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-Gaussian or multivariate outcomes. We develop a unified design-based inference framework for regression adjustment and variance estimation of a broad class of generalized causal effect estimands defined through pairwise contrast functions. Leveraging the theory of U-statistics and finite-population asymptotics, we establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of regression estimators constructed from individual pairs and per-unit pair averages, even when the working models are misspecified. Consequently, these estimators are model-assisted rather than model-based. In contrast to classical average treatment effect estimands, we show that for nonlinear contrast functions, covariate adjustment preserves consistency but does not admit a universal efficiency guarantee. For inference, we demonstrate that standard heteroskedasticity-robust and cluster-robust variance estimators are generally inconsistent in this setting. As a remedy, we prove that a complete two-way cluster-robust variance estimator, which fully accounts for pairwise dependence and reverse comparisons, is consistent.

stat.ME↗