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Fan Li

Publications and source records attributed to Fan Li.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

C$^{2}$TC: A Training-Free Framework for Efficient Tabular Data Condensation

Tabular data is the primary data format in industrial relational databases, underpinning modern data analytics and decision-making. However, the increasing scale of tabular data poses significant computational and storage challenges to learning-based analytical systems. This highlights the need for data-efficient learning, which enables effective model training and generalization using substantially fewer samples. Dataset condensation (DC) has emerged as a promising data-centric paradigm that synthesizes small yet informative datasets to preserve data utility while reducing storage and training costs. However, existing DC methods are computationally intensive due to reliance on complex gradient-based optimization. Moreover, they often overlook key characteristics of tabular data, such as heterogeneous features and class imbalance. To address these limitations, we introduce C$^{2}$TC (Class-Adaptive Clustering for Tabular Condensation), the first training-free tabular dataset condensation framework that jointly optimizes class allocation and feature representation, enabling efficient and scalable condensation. Specifically, we reformulate the dataset condensation objective into a novel class-adaptive cluster allocation problem (CCAP), which eliminates costly training and integrates adaptive label allocation to handle class imbalance. To solve the NP-hard CCAP, we develop HFILS, a heuristic local search that alternates between soft allocation and class-wise clustering to efficiently obtain high-quality solutions. Moreover, a hybrid categorical feature encoding (HCFE) is proposed for semantics-preserving clustering of heterogeneous discrete attributes. Extensive experiments on 10 real-world datasets demonstrate that C$^{2}$TC improves efficiency by at least 2 orders of magnitude over state-of-the-art baselines, while achieving superior downstream performance.

cs.LG↗

A sensitivity analysis approach to principal stratification with a continuous longitudinal intermediate outcome: Applications to a cohort stepped wedge trial

Causal inference in the presence of intermediate variables is a challenging problem in many applications. Principal stratification (PS) provides a framework to estimate principal causal effects (PCE) in such settings. However, existing PS methods primarily focus on settings with binary intermediate variables. We propose a novel approach to estimate PCE with continuous intermediate variables in the context of stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs). Our method leverages the time-varying treatment assignment in SW-CRTs to calibrate sensitivity parameters and identify the PCE under realistic assumptions. We demonstrate the application of our approach using data from a cohort SW-CRT evaluating the effect of a crowdsourcing intervention on HIV testing uptake among men who have sex with men in China, with social norms as a continuous intermediate variable. The proposed methodology expands the scope of PS to accommodate continuous variables and provides a practical tool for causal inference in SW-CRTs.

stat.ME↗

General Theory of Stable Microwave-Optical Quantum Resources in Hybrid-System Dynamics

We develop a general theoretical framework for characterizing stable quantum resources between microwave and optical modes in the dynamics of multipartite hybrid quantum systems with intermediary modes. The effective Hamiltonian for microwave-optical (MO) squeezing is formulated via strong interactions in the microwave-intermediary-optical hybrid system, and based on which rigorous solutions for the dynamics of MO entanglement and quantum steering are derived analytically. Remarkably, it is found that stable MO quantum resources can survive in the unsteady evolution beyond the steady one, and the unsteady evolution can exhibit the enhanced quality over the limit of quantum resources in the steady-state case. Furthermore, the stable MO entanglement as well as one-way and two-way quantum steerings are efficiently controllable by modulating the effective coupling strength. The validity of our theory is demonstrated by applying it to the typical models of electro-optomechanical and cavity optomagnomechanical hybrid systems.

quant-ph↗

Who's Winning? Clarifying Estimands Based on Win Statistics in Cluster Randomized Trials

Treatment effect estimands based on win statistics, including the win ratio, win odds, and win difference are increasingly popular targets for summarizing endpoints in clinical trials. Such win estimands offer an intuitive approach for prioritizing outcomes by clinical importance. The implementation and interpretation of win estimands is complicated in cluster randomized trials (CRTs), where researchers can target fundamentally different estimands on the individual-level or cluster-level. We numerically demonstrate that individual-pair and cluster-pair win estimands can substantially differ when cluster size is informative: where outcomes and/or treatment effects depend on cluster size. With such informative cluster sizes, individual-pair and cluster-pair win estimands can even yield opposite conclusions regarding treatment benefit. We describe consistent estimators for individual-pair and cluster-pair win estimands and propose a leave-one-cluster-out jackknife variance estimator for inference. Despite being consistent, our simulations highlight that some caution is needed when implementing individual-pair win estimators due to finite-sample bias. In contrast, cluster-pair win estimators are unbiased for their respective targets. Altogether, careful specification of the target estimand is essential when applying win estimators in CRTs. Failure to clearly define whether individual-pair or cluster-pair win estimands are of primary interest may result in answering a dramatically different question than intended.

stat.ME↗

Moving toward best practice when using propensity score weighting in survey observational studies

Propensity score weighting is a common method for estimating treatment effects with survey data. The method is applied to minimize confounding using measured covariates that are often different between individuals in treatment and control. However, existing literature does not reach a consensus on the optimal use of survey weights for population-level inference in the propensity score weighting analysis. Under the balancing weights framework, we provided a unified solution for incorporating survey weights in both the propensity score of estimation and the outcome regression model. We derived estimators for different target populations, including the combined, treated, controlled, and overlap populations. We provide a unified expression of the sandwich variance estimator and demonstrate that the survey-weighted estimator is asymptotically normal, as established through the theory of M-estimators. Through an extensive series of simulation studies, we examined the performance of our derived estimators and compared the results to those of alternative methods. We further carried out two case studies to illustrate the application of the different methods of propensity score analysis with complex survey data. We concluded with a discussion of our findings and provided practical guidelines for propensity score weighting analysis of observational data from complex surveys.

stat.ME↗

ERNIE 5.0 Technical Report

In this report, we introduce ERNIE 5.0, a natively autoregressive foundation model desinged for unified multimodal understanding and generation across text, image, video, and audio. All modalities are trained from scratch under a unified next-group-of-tokens prediction objective, based on an ultra-sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) architecture with modality-agnostic expert routing. To address practical challenges in large-scale deployment under diverse resource constraints, ERNIE 5.0 adopts a novel elastic training paradigm. Within a single pre-training run, the model learns a family of sub-models with varying depths, expert capacities, and routing sparsity, enabling flexible trade-offs among performance, model size, and inference latency in memory- or time-constrained scenarios. Moreover, we systematically address the challenges of scaling reinforcement learning to unified foundation models, thereby guaranteeing efficient and stable post-training under ultra-sparse MoE architectures and diverse multimodal settings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ERNIE 5.0 achieves strong and balanced performance across multiple modalities. To the best of our knowledge, among publicly disclosed models, ERNIE 5.0 represents the first production-scale realization of a trillion-parameter unified autoregressive model that supports both multimodal understanding and generation. To facilitate further research, we present detailed visualizations of modality-agnostic expert routing in the unified model, alongside comprehensive empirical analysis of elastic training, aiming to offer profound insights to the community.

cs.CL↗

Demystify Doubly-Robust Estimation: The Role of Overlap

The doubly-robust (DR) estimator is popular for evaluating causal effects in observational studies and is often perceived as more desirable than inverse probability weighting (IPW) or outcome modeling alone because it provides extra protection against model misspecification. However, double robustness is an asymptotic property that may not hold in finite samples. We investigate how the finite sample performance of the DR estimator depends on the degree of covariate overlap between comparison groups. Using analytical illustrations and extensive simulations under various scenarios with different degrees of covariate overlap and model specifications, we examine the bias and variance of the DR estimator relative to IPW and outcome modeling estimators. We find that: (i) specification of the outcome model has a stronger influence on the DR estimates than specification of the propensity score model, and this dominance increases as overlap decreases; (ii) with poor overlap, the DR estimator generally amplifies the adverse consequences of extreme weights (large bias and/or variance) regardless of model specifications, and is often inferior to both the IPW and outcome modeling estimators. As a practical guide, we recommend always first checking the degree of overlap in applications. In the case of poor overlap, analysts should consider shifting the target population to a subpopulation with adequate overlap via methods such as trimming or overlap weighting.

stat.ME↗

Propensity score weighted Cox regression for survival outcomes in observational studies with multiple or factorial treatments

In observational studies with survival or time-to-event outcomes, a propensity score weighted marginal Cox proportional hazard model with the treatment variable as the only predictor is commonly used to estimate the causal marginal hazard ratio between two treatments. Observational studies often have more than two treatments, but corresponding analysis methods are limited. In this paper, we combine the propensity score weighting method for multiple treatments and a marginal Cox model with indicators for each treatment to estimate the causal hazard ratios between multiple treatments and a common reference treatment. We illustrate two weighting schemes: inverse probability of treatment weighting and overlap weighting. We prove the consistency of the maximum weighted partial likelihood estimator of the causal marginal hazard ratio and derive a robust sandwich variance estimator. As an important special case of multiple treatments, we elaborate the Cox model for two-way factorial treatments. We apply the method to evaluate the real-world comparative effectiveness of three types of anti-obesity medications on heart failure. We develop an associated R package 'PSsurvival'.

stat.ME↗

Model-assisted inference for dynamic causal effects in staggered rollout cluster randomized experiments

Staggered rollout cluster randomized experiments (SR-CREs) involve sequential treatment adoption across clusters, requiring analysis methods that address a general class of dynamic causal effects, anticipation, and non-ignorable cluster-period sizes. Without imposing any outcome modeling assumptions, we study regression estimators using individual data, cluster-period averages, and scaled cluster-period totals, with and without covariate adjustment from a design-based perspective. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of each estimator under a randomization-based framework and prove that the associated variance estimators are asymptotically conservative in the Löwner ordering. Furthermore, we conduct a unified efficiency comparison of the estimators and provide recommendations. We highlight the efficiency advantage of using estimators based on scaled cluster-period totals with covariate adjustment over their counterparts using individual-level data and cluster-period averages. Our results rigorously justify linear regression estimators as model-assisted methods to address an entire class of dynamic causal effects in SR-CREs.

stat.ME↗

A Bayesian approach to the survivor average causal effect in cluster-randomized crossover trials

In cluster-randomized crossover (CRXO) trials, groups of individuals are randomly assigned to two or more sequences of alternating treatments. Since clusters serve as their own control, the CRXO design is typically more statistically efficient than the usual parallel-arm design. CRXO trials are increasingly popular in many areas of health research where the number of available clusters is limited. Further, in trials among severely ill patients, researchers often want to assess the effect of treatments on secondary non-terminal outcomes, but frequently in these studies, there are patients who do not survive to have these measurements fully recorded. In this paper, we provide a causal inference framework and treatment effect estimation methods for addressing truncation by death in the setting of CRXO trials. We target the survivor average causal effect (SACE) estimand, a well-defined subgroup treatment effect obtained via principal stratification. We propose novel structural and standard modeling assumptions that enable estimating the SACE within a Bayesian paradigm. We evaluate the small-sample performance of our proposed Bayesian approach for estimation of the SACE in CRXO trial settings via simulation studies. We apply our methods to a previously conducted two-period cross-sectional CRXO study examining the impact of proton pump inhibitors compared to histamine-2 receptor blockers on length of hospitalization among adults requiring invasive mechanical ventilation.

stat.ME↗

On the permutation equivariance principle for causal estimands

In many causal inference problems, multiple action variables, such as factors, mediators, or network units, often share a common causal role yet lack a natural ordering. To avoid ambiguity, the scientific interpretation of a vector of estimands should remain invariant under relabeling, an implicit principle we refer to as permutation equivariance. Permutation equivariance can be understood as the property that permuting the variables permutes the estimands in a trackable manner, such that scientific meaning is preserved. We formally characterize this principle and study its combinatorial algebra. We present a class of weighted estimands that project unstructured potential outcome means into a vector of permutation equivariant and interpretable estimands capturing all orders of interaction. To guide practice, we discuss the implications and choices of weights and define residual-free estimands, whose inclusion-exclusion sums capture the maximal effect, which is useful in context such as causal mediation and network interference. We present the application of our general theory to three canonical examples and extend our results to ratio effect measures.

stat.ME↗

Optimal estimation of generalized causal effects in cluster-randomized trials with multiple outcomes

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) are widely used to evaluate group-level interventions and increasingly collect multiple outcomes capturing complementary dimensions of benefit and risk. Investigators often seek a single global summary of treatment effect, yet existing methods largely focus on single-outcome estimands or rely on model-based procedures with unclear causal interpretation or limited robustness. We develop a unified potential outcomes framework for generalized treatment effects with multiple outcomes in CRTs, accommodating both non-prioritized and prioritized outcome settings. The proposed cluster-pair and individual-pair causal estimands are defined through flexible pairwise contrast functions and explicitly account for potentially informative cluster sizes. We establish nonparametric estimation via weighted clustered U-statistics and derive efficient influence functions to construct covariate-adjusted estimators that integrate debiased machine learning with U-statistics. The resulting estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, attain the semiparametric efficiency bounds under mild regularity conditions, and have analytically tractable variance estimators that are proven to be consistent under cross-fitting. Simulations and an application to a CRT for chronic pain management illustrate the practical utility of the proposed methods.

stat.ME↗

What is Overlap Weighting, How Has it Evolved, and When to Use It for Causal Inference?

The growing availability of large health databases has expanded the use of observational studies for comparative effectiveness research. Unlike randomized trials, observational studies must adjust for systematic differences in patient characteristics between treatment groups. Propensity score methods, including matching, weighting, stratification, and regression adjustment, address this issue by creating groups that are comparable with respect to measured covariates. Among these approaches, overlap weighting (OW) has emerged as a principled and efficient method that emphasizes individuals at empirical equipoise, those who could plausibly receive either treatment. By assigning weights proportional to the probability of receiving the opposite treatment, OW targets the Average Treatment Effect in the Overlap population (ATO), achieves exact mean covariate balance under logistic propensity score models, and minimizes asymptotic variance. Over the last decade, the OW method has been recognized as a valuable confounding adjustment tool across the statistical, epidemiologic, and clinical research communities, and is increasingly applied in clinical and health studies. Given the growing interest in using observational data to emulate randomized trials and the capacity of OW to prioritize populations at clinical equipoise while achieving covariate balance (fundamental attributes of randomized studies), this article provides a concise overview of recent methodological developments in OW and practical guidance on when it represents a suitable choice for causal inference.

stat.ME↗

Doubly robust estimators of the restricted mean time in favor estimands in individual- and cluster-randomized trials

Progressive multi-state survival outcomes are common in trials with recurrent or sequential events and require treatment effect estimands that remain interpretable without proportional intensity or Markov assumptions. The restricted mean time in favor of treatment (RMT-IF) extends the restricted mean survival time to ordered multi-state processes and provides such an interpretable estimand. However, existing RMT-IF methods are nonparametric, assume covariate-independent censoring for independent observations, and do not accommodate cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), limiting both efficiency and applicability. We develop a class of doubly robust estimators for RMT-IF under right censoring using an augmented inverse-probability weighting framework that combines stage-specific outcome regression with arm-specific censoring models, yielding consistency when either nuisance model is correctly specified. We further extend the framework to CRTs by formalizing both cluster-level and individual-level average RMT-IF estimands to address informative cluster size and by constructing corresponding doubly robust estimators that account for within-cluster correlation. For inference, we employ model-agnostic jackknife variance estimators in both individually randomized and cluster-randomized settings. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate finite-sample performance, and the methods are illustrated using two randomized trial examples.

stat.ME↗

KLAN: Kuaishou Landing-page Adaptive Navigator

Modern online platforms configure multiple pages to accommodate diverse user needs. This multi-page architecture inherently establishes a two-stage interaction paradigm between the user and the platform: (1) Stage I: page navigation, navigating users to a specific page and (2) Stage II: in-page interaction, where users engage with customized content within the specific page. While the majority of research has been focusing on the sequential recommendation task that improves users' feedback in Stage II, there has been little investigation on how to achieve better page navigation in Stage I. To fill this gap, we formally define the task of Personalized Landing Page Modeling (PLPM) into the field of recommender systems: Given a user upon app entry, the goal of PLPM is to proactively select the most suitable landing page from a set of candidates (e.g., functional tabs, content channels, or aggregation pages) to optimize the short-term PDR metric and the long-term user engagement and satisfaction metrics, while adhering to industrial constraints. Additionally, we propose KLAN (Kuaishou Landing-page Adaptive Navigator), a hierarchical solution framework designed to provide personalized landing pages under the formulation of PLPM. KLAN comprises three key components: (1) KLAN-ISP captures inter-day static page preference; (2) KLAN-IIT captures intra-day dynamic interest transitions and (3) KLAN-AM adaptively integrates both components for optimal navigation decisions. Extensive online experiments conducted on the Kuaishou platform demonstrate the effectiveness of KLAN, obtaining +0.205% and +0.192% improvements on in Daily Active Users (DAU) and user Lifetime (LT). Our KLAN is ultimately deployed on the online platform at full traffic, serving hundreds of millions of users. To promote further research in this important area, we will release our dataset and code upon paper acceptance.

cs.IR↗

Semiparametric causal mediation analysis of cluster-randomized trials for indirect and spillover effects

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), there is emerging interest in exploring the causal mechanism in which a cluster-level treatment affects the outcome through an intermediate outcome. The majority of existing causal mediation methods are applicable to independent data and only a few exceptions have considered assessing causal mediation in CRTs, all of which heavily depend on parametric assumptions. In this article, we develop a formal semiparametric efficiency theory to motivate new doubly-robust methods for addressing different mediation effect estimands -- the natural indirect effect, individual mediation effect, and spillover mediation effect (the extent to which one's outcome is influenced by others' mediators). We derive the efficient influence function for each estimand, and carefully parameterize each efficient influence function to motivate practical estimators. We consider both parametric working models and data-adaptive machine learners to estimate the nuisance functions, and obtain the semiparametric efficient estimators in the latter case. We conduct simulation studies to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of our new estimators and illustrate our proposed methods by reanalyzing a real-world CRT.

stat.ME↗

Uncovering Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Pragmatic Gerontology Trials

Detecting heterogeneity in treatment response enriches the interpretation of gerontologic trials. In aging research, estimating the effect of the intervention on clinically meaningful outcomes faces analytical challenges when it is truncated by death. For example, in the Whole Systems Demonstrator trial, a large cluster-randomized study evaluating telecare among older adults, the overall effect of the intervention on quality of life was found to be null. However, this marginal intervention estimate obscures potential heterogeneity of individuals responding to the intervention, particularly among those who survive to the end of follow-up. To explore this heterogeneity, we adopt a causal framework grounded in principal stratification, targeting the Survivor Average Causal Effect (SACE)-the treatment effect among "always-survivors," or those who would survive regardless of treatment assignment. We extend this framework using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), a nonparametric machine learning method, to flexibly model both latent principal strata and stratum-specific potential outcomes. This enables the estimation of the Conditional SACE (CSACE), allowing us to uncover variation in treatment effects across subgroups defined by baseline characteristics. Our analysis reveals that despite the null average effect, some subgroups experience distinct quality of life benefits (or lack thereof) from telecare, highlighting opportunities for more personalized intervention strategies. This study demonstrates how embedding machine learning methods, such as BART, within a principled causal inference framework can offer deeper insights into trial data with complex features including truncation by death and clustering-key considerations in analyzing pragmatic gerontology trials.

stat.AP↗