arXiv subjects

Federica Spoto

Publications and source records attributed to Federica Spoto.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory Observations of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1)

We report on the observation and measurement of astrometry, photometry, morphology, and activityof the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, also designated C/2025 N1 (ATLAS) with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Comet 3I/ATLAS, the third known interstellar object, was discovered on UT 2025 July 1. Rubin Observatory had coincidentally collected images of the object's region of the sky during routine commissioning. Facilitated by Rubin's high resolution and large aperture, we successfully recovered object detections from Rubin observations spanning UT 2025 June 21 (10 days before discovery, when 3I/ATLAS was 4.5 au from the Sun) through the date of discovery, and we acquired additional images through UT 2025 July 20 as part of commissioning. We measure on-sky locations of 3I/ATLAS in Rubin ugrizy bands, with a typical precision of about 70 mas, and briefly describe the reason this is coarser than our measured static source astrometric precision of about 3 mas in Rubin images. We measure grizy magnitudes of 3I/ATLAS photometry at about 0.01 mag precision, detecting no short-term photometric variability above 0.01 mag. We derive an estimated near-nucleus dust-to-nucleus scattering cross-section ratio of eta >= 13 on UT 2025 July 2 based on Rubin photometry and an upper limit nucleus size computed from Hubble Space Telescope observations. We find Rubin colors of g - r = (0.657 +/- 0.013) mag, r - i = (0.235 +/- 0.018) mag, i - z = (0.147 +/- 0.042) mag, z - y = (0.047 +/- 0.052) mag. These data represent the earliest observations of this object by a large (>=8-meter class) telescope and illustrate the type of measurements (and discoveries) Rubin's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will begin to provide after it begins in early 2026.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Astrometric follow-up of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 during a Torino scale level 3 alert

The discovery of 2024 YR4 presented the planetary defense community with the most significant impact threat in almost two decades, reaching level 3 on the Torino scale. The community, now mature and well-organized, responded with a global observational effort. Astrometric measurements, forming the basis for orbital refinement and impact prediction, were a central component of this response. In this paper, we present the astrometric data collected by the international community, from the time of discovery until the object became too faint for all existing observational assets, including JWST. We also discuss the coordination role played by the International Asteroid Warning Network, and the importance of publicly available image archives to enable precovery searches.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Long-term impact of PM2.5 on mortality is exacerbated when wildfire events occur

There is extensive evidence that long-term exposure to all-source PM2.5 increases mortality. However, to date, no study has evaluated whether this effect is exacerbated in the presence of wildfire events. Here, we study 60+ million older US adults and find that wildfire events increase the harmful effects of long-term all-source PM2.5 exposure on mortality, providing a new and realistic conceptualization of wildfire health risks.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Change Point Detection for Functional Autoregressive Processes on the Sphere

We introduce a novel framework for change point detection in spherical functional autoregressive (SPHAR) processes, enabling the identification of structural breaks in spatio-temporal random fields on the sphere. Our LASSO-regularized estimator, based on penalized dynamic programming in the harmonic domain, operates without knowledge of the number or locations of change points and offers non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees. This approach provides a new tool for analyzing nonstationary phenomena on the sphere, relevant to climate science, cosmology, and beyond.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

An ancient L- type family associated to (460) Scania in the Middle Main Belt as revealed by Gaia DR3 spectra

Asteroid families are typically identified using hierarchical clustering methods (HCM) in the proper element phase space. However, these methods struggle with overlapping families, interlopers, and the detection of older structures. Spectroscopic data can help overcome these limitations. The Gaia Data Release 3 (DR3) contains reflectance spectra at visible wavelengths for 60,518 asteroids over the range between 374-1034 nm, representing a large sample that is well suited to studies of asteroid families. Using Gaia spectroscopic data, we investigate a region in the central Main Belt centered around 2.72 AU, known for its connection to L- type asteroids. Conflicting family memberships reported by different HCM implementations underscore the need for an independent dynamical analysis of this region. We determine family memberships by applying a color taxonomy derived from Gaia data and by assessing the spectral similarity between candidate members and the template spectrum of each family. We identify an L- type asteroid family in the central Main Belt, with (460) Scania as its largest member. Analysis of the family's V-shape indicates that it is relatively old, with an estimated age of approximately 1 Gyr, which likely explains its non detection by the HCM. The family's existence is supported by statistical validation, and its distribution in proper element space is well reproduced by numerical simulations. Independent evidence from taxonomy, polarimetry, and spin-axis obliquities consistently supports the existence of this L- type family. This work highlights the value of combining dynamical and physical data to characterize asteroid families and raises questions about the origin of L- type families, potentially linked to primordial objects retaining early protoplanetary disk properties. Further spectroscopic data are needed to clarify these families.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Signal Fidelity Index-Aware Calibration for Dementia Predictions Across Heterogeneous Real-World Data

\textbf{Background:} Machine learning models trained on electronic health records (EHRs) often degrade across healthcare systems due to distributional shift. A fundamental but underexplored factor is diagnostic signal decay: variability in diagnostic quality and consistency across institutions, which affects the reliability of codes used for training and prediction. \textbf{Objective:} To develop a Signal Fidelity Index (SFI) quantifying diagnostic data quality at the patient level in dementia, and to test SFI-aware calibration for improving model performance across heterogeneous datasets without outcome labels. \textbf{Methods:} We built a simulation framework generating 2,500 synthetic datasets, each with 1,000 patients and realistic demographics, encounters, and coding patterns based on dementia risk factors. The SFI was derived from six interpretable components: diagnostic specificity, temporal consistency, entropy, contextual concordance, medication alignment, and trajectory stability. SFI-aware calibration applied a multiplicative adjustment, optimized across 50 simulation batches. \textbf{Results:} At the optimal parameter ($α$ = 2.0), SFI-aware calibration significantly improved all metrics (p $<$ 0.001). Gains ranged from 10.3\% for Balanced Accuracy to 32.5\% for Recall, with notable increases in Precision (31.9\%) and F1-score (26.1\%). Performance approached reference standards, with F1-score and Recall within 1\% and Balanced Accuracy and Detection Rate improved by 52.3\% and 41.1\%, respectively. \textbf{Conclusions:} Diagnostic signal decay is a tractable barrier to model generalization. SFI-aware calibration provides a practical, label-free strategy to enhance prediction across healthcare contexts, particularly for large-scale administrative datasets lacking outcome labels.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Quantifying Diagnostic Signal Decay in Dementia: A National Study of Medicare Hospitalization Data

Background: Artificial intelligence (AI) models in healthcare depend on the fidelity of diagnostic data, yet the quality of such data is often compromised by variability in clinical documentation practices. In dementia, a condition already prone to diagnostic ambiguity, this variability may introduce systematic distortion into claims-based research and AI model development. Methods: We analyzed Medicare Part A hospitalization data from 2016-2018 to examine patterns of dementia-related ICD-10 code utilization across more than 3,000 U.S. counties. Using a clinically informed classification of 17 ICD-10 codes grouped into five diagnostic categories, we applied the transitive Sequential Pattern Mining (tSPM+) algorithm to model temporal usage structures. We then used matrix similarity methods to compare local diagnostic patterns to national norms and fit multivariable linear regressions to identify county-level demographic and structural correlates of divergence. Findings: We found substantial geographic and demographic variation in dementia-related diagnostic code usage. Non-specific codes were dominant nationwide, while Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia codes showed pronounced variability. Temporal sequence analysis revealed consistent transitions from specific to non-specific codes, which suggest degradation of diagnostic specificity over time. Counties with higher proportions of rural residents, Medicaid-eligible patients, and Black or Hispanic dementia patients demonstrated significantly lower similarity to national usage patterns. Our model explained 38% of the variation in local-to-national diagnostic alignment.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Gaia DR3 asteroid reflectance spectra: L-type families, memberships, and ages

The Gaia Data Release 3 (DR3) contains reflectance spectra at visible wavelengths for 60,518 asteroids over the range between 374-1034 nm, representing a large sample that is well suited to studies of asteroid families. We want to assess the potential of Gaia spectra in identifying asteroid family members. Here, we focus on two L-type families, namely Tirela/Klumpkea and Watsonia. These families are known for their connection to Barbarian asteroids, which are potentially abundant in calcium-aluminum rich inclusions (CAIs). Our method is based (1) on a color taxonomy specifically built on Gaia data and (2) the similarity of spectra of candidate members with the template spectrum of a specific family. We identified objects in the halo of Tirela/Klumpkea, along with possible interlopers. We also found an independent group of eight asteroids erroneously linked to the family by the hierarchical clustering method (HCM). Consequently, the knowledge of the size distribution of the family has been significantly improved, with a more consistent shape at the larger end. The Watsonia family is a more intricate case, mainly due to its smaller size and the less marked difference between the spectral types of the background and of the family members. However, the spectral selection helps identify objects that were not seen by HCM, including a cluster separated from the family core by a resonance. For both families, the V-shape is better defined, leading to a revised age estimation based on the memberships established mainly from spectral properties. Our work demonstrates the advantage of combining the classical HCM approach to spectral properties obtained by Gaia for the study of asteroid families. Future data releases are expected to further expand the capabilities in this domain

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Binary asteroid candidates in Gaia DR3 astrometry

Asteroids with companions constitute an excellent sample for studying the collisional and dynamical evolution of minor planets. The currently known binary population were discovered by different complementary techniques that produce, for the moment, a strongly biased distribution, especially in a range of intermediate asteroid sizes (approximately 20 to 100 km) where both mutual photometric events and high-resolution adaptive optic imaging are poorly efficient. A totally independent technique of binary asteroid discovery, based on astrometry, can help to reveal new binary systems and populate a range of sizes and separations that remain nearly unexplored. In this work, we describe a dedicated period detection method and its results for the Gaia DR3 data set. This method looks for the presence of a periodic signature in the orbit post-fit residuals. After conservative filtering and validation based on statistical and physical criteria, we are able to present a first sample of astrometric binary candidates, to be confirmed by other observation techniques such as photometric light curves and stellar occultations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Detectability of the Yarkovsky Effect in the Main Belt

We attempt to a detect signal of Yarkovsky-related acceleration in the orbits of 134 main belt asteroids (MBAs) we observed with the University of Hawai'i 88 inch telescope, supplemented with observations publicly available from the Minor Planet Center and Gaia Data Release 3. We estimated expected Yarkovsky acceleration values based on parameters derived through thermophysical modeling, but we were not able to find any reliable detections of Yarkovsky in our sample. Through tests with synthetic observations however, we estimated the minimum observational arc length needed to detect the Yarkovsky effect for all of our sample MBAs, which in nearly every case exceeded the current arc length of the existing observations. We find that the Yarkovsky effect could be detectable within a couple of decades of discovery for a 100 m MBA assuming 0.1" astrometric accuracy, which is at the size range detectable by the upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Asteroid Families: properties, recent advances and future opportunities

Collisions are one of the key processes shaping planetary systems. Asteroid families are outcomes of such collisions still identifiable across our solar system. The families provide a unique view of catastrophic disruption phenomena and have been in the focus of planetary scientists for more than a century. Most of them are located in the main belt, a ring of asteroids between Mars and Jupiter. Here we review the basic properties of the families, discuss some recent advances, and anticipate future challenges. This review pays more attention to dynamic aspects such as family identification, age determination, and long-term evolution. The text, however, goes beyond that. Especially, we cover the details of young families that see the major advances in the last years, and we anticipate it will develop even faster in the future. We also discuss the relevance of asteroid families for water-ice content in the asteroid belt and our current knowledge on links between families and main-belt comets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Asteroid astrometry by stellar occultations: Accuracy of the existing sample from orbital fitting

Context: Stellar occultations, greatly enhanced by the publication of the Gaia data releases, permit not only the determination of asteroid size and shape, but also the retrieval of additional, accurate astrometry, with a possible relevant impact on the study of dynamical properties. The use of Gaia as reference catalogue and the recent implementation of an improved error model for occultation astrometry offer the opportunity to test its global astrometric performance on the existing data set of observed events, dominated by minor planets belonging to the main belt. Aims: We aim to explore the performance on orbit accuracy brought by reducing occultations by stellar positions given in Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2) and Early Data Release 3 (EDR3), exploited jointly with the new occultation error model. Our goal is to verify that the quality of DR2 and EDR3 provides a logical progression in the exploitation of occultation astrometry with respect to previous catalogues. We also want to compare the post-fit residuals to the error model. Methods: We began with accurate orbit adjustment to occultation data, either alone or joined to the other available ground-based observations. We then analyzed the orbit accuracy and the post-fit residuals. Results: Gaia EDR3 and DR2 bring a noticeable improvement to the accuracy of occultation data, bringing an average reduction of their residuals upon fitting an orbit of about a factor of 5 when compared to other catalogues. This is particularly visible when occultations alone are used, resulting in very good orbits for a large fraction of objects. We demonstrate that occultation astrometry can reach the performance of Gaia on small asteroids. The joint use of archival data and occultations remains more challenging due to the higher uncertainties and systematic errors of other data, mainly obtained by traditional CCD imaging.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Yarkovsky effect detection and updated impact hazard assessment for Near-Earth Asteroid (410777) 2009 FD

Near-Earth asteroid (410777) 2009 FD is a potentially hazardous asteroid with potential impacts on Earth at the end of the 22nd century. The astrometry collected during the 2019 apparition provides information on the trajectory of (410777) by constraining the Yarkovsky effect, which is the main source of uncertainty for future predictions, and informing the impact hazard assessment. We included the Yarkovsky effect in the force model and estimated its magnitude from the fit to the (410777) optical and radar astrometric data. We performed the (410777) hazard assessment over 200 years by using two independent approaches: the NEODyS group adopted a generalisation of the Line Of Variations method in a 7-dimensional space, whereas the JPL team resorted to the Multilayer Clustered Sampling technique. We obtain a 4-sigma detection of the Yarkovsky effect acting on (410777), which corresponds to a semimajor axis drift of (3.6 +/- 0.9) x 10^{-3} au/Myr. As for the hazard results of both teams, the main impact possibility in 2185 is ruled out and the only remaining one is in 2190, but with a probability smaller than 10^{-8}.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Completeness of Impact Monitoring

The completeness limit is a key quantity to measure the reliability of an impact monitoring system. It is the impact probability threshold above which every virtual impactor has to be detected. A goal of this paper is to increase the completeness without increasing the computational load. We propose a new method to sample the Line Of Variations (LOV) with respect to the previously one used in NEODyS. The step-size of the sampling is not uniform in the LOV parameter, since the probability of each LOV segment between consecutive points is kept constant. Moreover, the sampling interval has been extended to the larger interval [-5,5] in the LOV parameter and a new decomposition scheme in sub-returns is provided to deal with the problem of duplicated points in the same return. The impact monitoring system CLOMON-2 has been upgraded with all these features, resulting in a decrease of the generic completeness limit IP* by a factor $\simeq 4$ and in an increase of the computational load by a factor $\simeq 2$. Moreover, we statistically investigate the completeness actually reached by the system with two different methods: a direct comparison with the results of the independent system Sentry at JPL and an empirical power-law to model the number of virtual impactors as a function of the impact probability. We found empirically that the number of detected virtual impactors with $IP>IP^*$ appears to grow according to a power-law, proportional to $IP^{-2/3}$. An analytical model explaining this power-law is currently an open problem, but we think it is related to the way the number of virtual impactors within a time $t_{rel}$ from the first observed close approach accumulates, for which we prove the existence of a power-law proportional to $t_{rel}^3$. The power-law allows us to detect a loss of efficiency in the virtual impactors search for impact probabilities near the generic completeness limit.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

Asteroid cratering families: recognition and collisional interpretation

We continue our investigation of the bulk properties of asteroid dynamical families identified using only asteroid proper elements (Milani et al. 2014) to provide plausible collisional interpretations. We focus on cratering families consisting of a substantial parent body and many small fragments. We propose a quantitative definition of cratering families based on the fraction in volume of the fragments with respect to the parent body; fragmentation families are above this empirical boundary. We assess the compositional homogeneity of the families and their shape in proper element space by computing the differences of the proper elements of the fragments with respect to the ones of the major body, looking for anomalous asymmetries produced either by post-formation dynamical evolution, or by multiple collisional/cratering events, or by a failure of the Hierarchical Clustering Method (HCM) for family identification. We identified a total of 25 dynamical families with more than 100 members ranging from moderate to heavy cratering. For three families (4, 15 and 283) we confirm the occurrence of two separate cratering events. For family 20, we propose a double collision origin, not previously identified. In four cases (31, 480, 163 and 179) we performed a dedicated search for dynamical resonant transport mechanisms that could have substantially changed the shape of the family. By using a new synthetic method for computation of secular frequencies, we found possible solutions for families 31, 480, and 163, but not for family 179, for which we propose a new interpretation, based on a secular resonance contaminating this family: the family of 179 should be split into two separate clusters, one containing (179) itself and the other, family (9506) Telramund, of fragmentation type, for which we have computed an age.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

Detecting the Yarkovsky effect among near-Earth asteroids from astrometric data

We present an updated set of near-Earth asteroids with a Yarkovsky-related semimajor axis drift detected from the orbital fit to the astrometry. We find 87 reliable detections after filtering for the signal-to-noise ratio of the Yarkovsky drift estimate and making sure the estimate is compatible with the physical properties of the analyzed object. Furthermore, we find a list of 24 marginally significant detections, for which future astrometry could result in a Yarkovsky detection. A further outcome of the filtering procedure is a list of detections that we consider spurious because unrealistic or not explicable with the Yarkovsky effect. Among the smallest asteroids of our sample, we determined four detections of solar radiation pressure, in addition to the Yarkovsky effect. As the data volume increases in the near future, our goal is to develop methods to generate very long lists of asteroids with reliably detected Yarkovsky effect, with limited amounts of case by case specific adjustments. Furthermore, we discuss the improvements this work could bring to impact monitoring. In particular, we exhibit two asteroids for which the adoption of a non-gravitational model is needed to make reliable impact predictions.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Shadowing Lemma and Chaotic Orbit Determination

Orbit determination is possible for a chaotic orbit of a dynamical system, given a finite set of observations, provided the initial conditions are at the central time. In a simple discrete model, the standard map, we tackle the problem of chaotic orbit determination when observations extend beyond the predictability horizon. If the orbit is hyperbolic, a shadowing orbit is computed by the least squares orbit determination. We test both the convergence of the orbit determination iterative procedure and the behaviour of the uncertainties as a function of the maximum number $n$ of map iterations observed. When the initial conditions belong to a chaotic orbit, the orbit determination is made impossible by numerical instability beyond a computability horizon, which can be approximately predicted by a simple formula. Moreover, the uncertainty of the results is sharply increased if a dynamical parameter is added to the initial conditions as parameter to be estimated. The uncertainty of the dynamical parameter decreases like $n^a$ with $a<0$ but not large (of the order of unity). If only the initial conditions are estimated, their uncertainty decreases exponentially with $n$. If they belong to a non-chaotic orbit the computational horizon is much larger, if it exists at all, and the decrease of the uncertainty is polynomial in all parameters, like $n^a$ with $a\simeq 1/2$. The Shadowing Lemma does not dictate what the asymptotic behaviour of the uncertainties should be. These phenomena have significant implications, which remain to be studied, in practical problems of orbit determination involving chaos, such as the chaotic rotation state of a celestial body and a chaotic orbit of a planet-crossing asteroid undergoing many close approaches.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Asteroid family ages

A new family classification, based on a catalog of proper elements with $\sim 384,000$ numbered asteroids and on new methods is available. For the $45$ dynamical families with $>250$ members identified in this classification, we present an attempt to obtain statistically significant ages: we succeeded in computing ages for $37$ collisional families. We used a rigorous method, including a least squares fit of the two sides of a V-shape plot in the proper semimajor axis, inverse diameter plane to determine the corresponding slopes, an advanced error model for the uncertainties of asteroid diameters, an iterative outlier rejection scheme and quality control. The best available Yarkovsky measurement was used to estimate a calibration of the Yarkovsky effect for each family. The results are presented separately for the families originated in fragmentation or cratering events, for the young, compact families and for the truncated, one-sided families. For all the computed ages the corresponding uncertainties are provided. We found 2 cases where two separate dynamical families form together a single V-shape with compatible slopes, thus indicating a single collisional event. We have also found 3 examples of dynamical families containing multiple collisional families, plus a dubious case. We have found 2 cases of families containing a conspicuous subfamily, such that it is possible to measure the slope of a distinct V-shape, thus the age of the secondary collision. We also provide data on the central gaps appearing in some families. The ages computed in this paper are obtained with a single and uniform methodology, thus the ages of different families can be compared, providing a first example of collisional chronology of the asteroid main belt.

astro-ph.EP↗