arXiv subjects

Francisco Palmí-Perales

Publications and source records attributed to Francisco Palmí-Perales.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Longitudinal Bayesian networks for assessing team performance in the National Basketball Association

Assessing the performance of a basketball team requires the consideration of multiple sources of information. In recent years, the volume and the quality of data generated in sport has increased considerably, particularly in basketball. In this work, we propose a Bayesian graphical modelling framework for the longitudinal analysis of basketball team performance. The framework is based on Bayesian networks that explicitly represent the nodes, that is, the random variables of interest, as longitudinal stochastic processes. We propose three baseline longitudinal models: a static Bayesian network, a dynamic Bayesian network with an autoregressive structure between successive games, and a dynamic Bayesian network based on a hidden Markov structure. We illustrate the proposed framework through a real-world sports analytics case study involving the Philadelphia 76ers of the National Basketball Association (NBA) during the 2005--06 season. The analysis includes player participation, minutes played, fouls drawn, and one-, two-, and three-point shots attempted and made.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Predicting subjective rage and facial expressions in human driving: A Bayesian network approach with beta-distributed nodes

A Bayesian network framework is proposed for modelling unit-bounded continuous variables using conditional beta-distributed nodes within a fully Bayesian inference setting. The model captures conditional dependencies and propagates uncertainty through the network, with inference performed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. The framework is applied to an experimental study of emotional and facial responses, focusing on rage intensity and facial gestures. Results show that brow lowering is strongly associated with rage intensity and is more frequent in men, whereas upper lid raising decreases under provocation independently of rage or sex. The model also predicts rage severity from informative facial gestures.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian inference for case-control point pattern data in spatial epidemiology with the \texttt{inlabru} R package

The analysis of case-control point pattern data is an important problem in spatial epidemiology. The spatial variation of cases if often compared to that of a set of controls to assess spatial risk variation as well as the detection of risk factors and exposure to putative pollution sources using spatial regression models. The intensities of the point patterns of cases and controls are estimated using log-Gaussian Cox models, so that fixed and spatial random effects can be included. Bayesian inference is conducted via the integrated Nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method using the inlabru R package. In this way, potential risk factors can be assessed by including them as fixed effects while residual spatial variation is considered as a Gaussian process with Matérn covariance. In addition, exposure to pollution sources is modeled using different smooth terms. The proposed methods have been applied to the Chorley-Ribble dataset, that records the locations of lung and larynx cancer cases as well as the location of an disused old incinerator in the area of Lancashire (England, United Kingdom). Taking the locations of lung cancer as controls, the spatial variation of both types of cases has been estimated and the increase of larynx cases in the vicinity of the incinerator has been assessed. The results are similar to those found in the literature. In a nutshell, a framework for Bayesian analysis of multivariate case-control point patterns within an epidemiological framework has been presented. Models to assess spatial variation and the effect of risk factors and pollution sources can be fit with ease with the inlabru R package.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Spatial similarity index for scouting in football

Finding players with similar profiles is an important problem in sports such as football. Scouting for new players requires a wealth of information about the available players so that similar profiles to that of a target player can be identified. However, information about the position of the players in the field is seldom used. For this reason, a novel approach based on spatial data analysis is introduced to produce a spatial similarity index that can help to identify similar players. The use of this new spatial similarity index is illustrated to identify similar players using spatial data from the Spanish competition "La Liga", season 2019-2020.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Spatial Models with R-INLA

Bayesian methods and software for spatial data analysis are generally now well established in the scientific community. Despite the wide application of spatial models, the analysis of multivariate spatial data using R-INLA has not been widely described in the existing literature. Therefore, the main objective of this article is to demonstrate that R-INLA is a convenient toolbox to analyse different types of multivariate spatial datasets. Additionally, this will be illustrated by analysing three datasets which are publicly available. Furthermore, the details and the R code of these analyses are provided to exemplify how to adjust multivariate spatial datasets with R-INLA.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Spatial Models with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation within Markov Chain Monte Carlo

The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is a convenient way to obtain approximations to the posterior marginals for parameters in Bayesian hierarchical models when the latent effects can be expressed as a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF). In addition, its implementation in the R-INLA package for the R statistical software provides an easy way to fit models using INLA in practice. R-INLA implements a number of widely used latent models, including several spatial models. In addition, R-INLA can fit models in a fraction of the time than other computer intensive methods (e.g. Markov Chain Monte Carlo) take to fit the same model. Although INLA provides a fast approximation to the marginals of the model parameters, it is difficult to use it with models not implemented in R-INLA. It is also difficult to make multivariate posterior inference on the parameters of the model as INLA focuses on the posterior marginals and not the joint posterior distribution. In this paper we describe how to use INLA within the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to fit spatial models and estimate the joint posterior distribution of a reduced number of parameters. We will illustrate the benefits of this new method with two examples on spatial econometrics and disease mapping where complex spatial models with several spatial structures need to be fitted.

stat.CO↗