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arXiv · 2608.09824

Longitudinal Bayesian networks for assessing team performance in the National Basketball Association

Gabriel Calvo·Francisco Palmí-Perales·Carmen Armero·Virgilio Gómez-Rubio
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Abstract

Assessing the performance of a basketball team requires the consideration of multiple sources of information. In recent years, the volume and the quality of data generated in sport has increased considerably, particularly in basketball. In this work, we propose a Bayesian graphical modelling framework for the longitudinal analysis of basketball team performance. The framework is based on Bayesian networks that explicitly represent the nodes, that is, the random variables of interest, as longitudinal stochastic processes. We propose three baseline longitudinal models: a static Bayesian network, a dynamic Bayesian network with an autoregressive structure between successive games, and a dynamic Bayesian network based on a hidden Markov structure. We illustrate the proposed framework through a real-world sports analytics case study involving the Philadelphia 76ers of the National Basketball Association (NBA) during the 2005--06 season. The analysis includes player participation, minutes played, fouls drawn, and one-, two-, and three-point shots attempted and made.

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Gabriel Calvo, Francisco Palmí-Perales, Carmen Armero, Virgilio Gómez-Rubio. 2026-08-10. Longitudinal Bayesian networks for assessing team performance in the National Basketball Association. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09824

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