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Frederick B. Davies

Publications and source records attributed to Frederick B. Davies.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Signatures of warm dark matter in the cosmological density fields extracted using Machine Learning

We aim to construct a machine-learning approach that allows for a pixel-by-pixel reconstruction of the intergalactic medium (IGM) density field for various warm dark matter (WDM) models using the Lyman-alpha forest. With this regression machinery, we constrain the mass of a potential WDM particle from observed Lyman-alpha sightlines directly from the density field. We design and train a Bayesian neural network on the supervised regression task of recovering the optical depth-weighted density field $Δ_τ$ as well as its reconstruction uncertainty from the Lyman-alpha forest flux field. We utilise the Sherwood-Relics simulation suite at $4.1\leq z \leq 5.0$ as the main training and validation dataset. Leveraging the density field recovered by our neural network, we construct an inference pipeline to constrain the WDM particle masses based on the probability distribution function of the density fields. We find that our trained Bayesian neural network can accurately recover within a $1σ$ error $\geq 85\%$ of the density field pixels from a validation simulated dataset that encompasses multiple WDM and thermal models of the IGM. When predicting on Lyman-alpha skewers generated using the alternative hydrodynamical code Nyx not included in the training data, we find a $1σ$ accuracy rate $\geq 75\%$. We consider 2 samples of observed Lyman-alpha spectra from the UVES and GHOST instruments, at $z=4.4$ and $z=4.9$ respectively and fit the density fields recovered by our Bayesian neural network to constrain WDM masses. We find lower bounds on the WDM particle mass of $m_{\mathrm{WDM}} \geq 3.8$ KeV and $m_{\mathrm{WDM}} \geq 2.2$ KeV at $2σ$ confidence, respectively. We are able to match current state-of-the-art WDM particle mass constraints using up to 40 times less observational data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques based on the Lyman-alpha forest power spectrum.

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Robust support for semi-automated reductions of Keck/NIRSPEC data using PypeIt

We present a data reduction pipeline (DRP) for Keck/NIRSPEC built as an addition to the PypeIt Python package. The DRP is capable of reducing multi-order echelle data taken both before and after the detector upgrade in 2018. As part of developing the pipeline, we implemented major improvements to the capabilities of the PypeIt package, including manual wavelength calibration for multi-order data and new output product that returns a coadded spectrum order-by-order. We also provide a procedure for correcting telluric absorption in NIRSPEC data by using the spectra of telluric standard stars taken near the time of the science spectra. At high resolutions, this is often more accurate than modeling-based approaches.

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A measurement of the escaping ionising efficiency of galaxies at redshift 5

The escaping ionising efficiency from galaxies, $f_{\rm esc}ξ_{\rm ion}$, is a crucial ingredient for understanding their contribution to hydrogen reionisation, but both of its components, $f_{\rm{esc}}$ and $ξ_{\rm{ion}}$, are extremely difficult to measure. We measure the average escaping ionising efficiency $\langle f_{\rm{esc}} ξ_{\rm{ion}}\rangle$ of galaxies at $z=5$ implied by the mean level of ionisation in the intergalactic medium via the Lyman-$α$ forest. We use the fact that $\dot{N}_{\rm{ion}} = ρ_{\rm{UV}} f_{\rm{esc}} ξ_{\rm{ion}}$, the product of the ionising output and the UV density $ρ_{\rm{UV}}$, can be calculated from the known average strength of the UV background and the mean free path of ionising photons. These quantities, as well as $ρ_{\rm{UV}}$, are robustly measured at $z\leq6$. We calculate the missing factor of $\langle f_{\rm{esc}} ξ_{\rm{ion}}\rangle$ at $z=5$, during a convenient epoch after hydrogen reionisation has completed and the intergalactic medium has reached ionisation equilibrium, but before bright quasars begin to dominate the ionising photon production. Intuitively, our constraint corresponds to the required escaping ionising production from galaxies in order to avoid over- or under-ionising the Lyman-$α$ forest. We obtain a measurement of $\log \langle f_{\rm{esc}} ξ_{\rm{ion}}\rangle /$erg Hz$^{-1}$ $ = 24.28_{-0.20}^{+0.21}$ at $z=5$ when integrating $ρ_\text{UV}$ down to a limiting magnitude $M_\text{lim}=-11$. Our measurement of the escaping ionising efficiency of galaxies is in rough agreement with both observations and most models.

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Damping wings in the Lyman-α forest: a model-independent measurement of the neutral fraction at 5.4<z<6.1

Recent observations have positioned the endpoint of the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) at redshift $z \sim 5.3$. However, observations of the Lyman-$α$ forest have not yet been able to discern whether reionisation occurred slowly and late, with substantial neutral hydrogen persisting at redshift $\sim 6$, or rapidly and earlier, with the apparent late end driven by the fluctuating UV background. Gunn-Peterson (GP) absorption troughs are solid indicators that reionisation is not complete until $z=5.3$, but whether they contain significantly neutral gas has not yet been proven. We aim to answer this question by directly measuring, for the first time, the neutral hydrogen fraction ($x_\mathrm{HI}$) at the end of the EoR ($5 \lesssim z \lesssim 6$) in high-redshift quasars spectra. For high neutral fractions $x_\mathrm{HI}\gtrsim0.1$, GP troughs exhibit damping wing (DW) absorption extending over $1000$ km s$^{-1}$ beyond the troughs. While conclusively detected in Lyman-$α$ emission lines of quasars at $z\geq7$, DWs are challenging to observe in the general Lyman-$α$ forest due to absorption complexities and small-scale stochastic transmission features. We report the first successful identification of the stochastic DW signal adjacent to GP troughs at redshifts $z=5.6$ through careful stacking of the dark gaps in Lyman-$α$ forest. We use the signal to present a measurement of the corresponding global $x_\mathrm{HI}=0.19\pm0.07$ $(_{-0.16}^{+0.11})$ at $1σ$ $(2σ)$ at $z=5.6$ and a limit $x_\mathrm{HI}<0.44$ at $z=5.9$. The detection of this signal demonstrates the existence of substantially neutral islands near the conclusion of the EoR, unequivocally signaling a late-and-slow reionization scenario.

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The Predicament of Absorption-dominated Reionization II: Observational Estimate of the Clumping Factor at the End of Reionization

The history of reionization reflects the cumulative injection of ionizing photons by sources and the absorption of ionizing photons by sinks. The latter process is traditionally described in terms of a "clumping factor" which encodes the average quadratic increase in the recombination rate of dense gas within the cosmic web. The recent measurement of a short mean free path of ionizing photons from stacked quasar spectra at $z\simeq6$ has placed the importance of sinks under increased scrutiny, but its connection to the recombination rate is not immediately obvious. Here we present analytic arguments to connect the clumping factor to the mean free path by invoking ionization equilibrium within the ionized phase of the intergalactic medium at the end of (and after) reionization. We find that the latest mean free path and hydrogen photoionization rate measurements at $z=5-6$ imply a global clumping factor $C\approx12$, much higher than previous determinations from radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of the reionization process. Similar values of $C$ are also derived when applying the same procedure to observations at $2<z<5$. Compared to the traditional assumption of $C=3$, high-redshift galaxies must produce roughly twice as many ionizing photons ($\approx3$ photons per baryon) to reionize the universe by $z\sim6$. This additional requirement on the ionizing photon budget may help to reconcile the reionization history with JWST observations that suggest a far greater output of ionizing photons by the most distant galaxy populations.

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Damping Wing-Like Features in the Stacked Ly$α$ Forest: Potential Neutral Hydrogen Islands at $z<6$

Recent quasar absorption line observations suggest that reionization may end as late as $z \approx 5.3$. As a means to search for large neutral hydrogen islands at $z<6$, we revisit long dark gaps in the Ly$β$ forest in VLT/X-Shooter and Keck/ESI quasar spectra. We stack the Ly$α$ forest corresponding to both edges of these Ly$β$ dark gaps and identify a damping wing-like extended absorption profile. The average redshift of the stacked forest is $z=5.8$. By comparing these observations with reionization simulations, we infer that such a damping wing-like feature can be naturally explained if these gaps are at least partially created by neutral islands. Conversely, simulated dark gaps lacking neutral hydrogen struggle to replicate the observed damping wing features. Furthermore, this damping wing-like profile implies that the volume-averaged neutral hydrogen fraction must be $\langle x_{\rm HI} \rangle \geq 6.1 \pm 3.9\%$ at $z = 5.8$. Our results offer robust evidence that reionization extends below $z=6$.

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Quantifying the Precision of IGM Damping Wing Measurements Towards Quasars

We investigate the precision with which the Lyman-$α$ damping wing signature imprinted on the spectra of high-redshift quasars (QSOs) by the foreground neutral intergalactic medium (IGM) can measure the history of cosmic reionization. We leverage a novel inference pipeline based on a generative probabilistic model for the entire spectrum (both red- and blueward of the Lyman-$α$ line), accounting for all relevant sources of uncertainty - the stochasticity caused by patchy reionization, the impact of the quasar's ionizing radiation on the IGM, it's unknown intrinsic spectrum, and spectral noise. Performing fast JAX-based Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo (HMC) parameter inference, we precisely measure the underlying global IGM neutral fraction as well as the lifetime of the quasar. Running a battery of tests on over a thousand mocks, we find optimal precision when running the pipeline with a six parameter PCA continuum model (five coefficients and a normalization) on $\mathrm{S}/\mathrm{N} \sim 10$ spectra, binned to a $\sim 500\,\mathrm{km}/\mathrm{s}$ velocity pixel scale, and extending at least out to the C IV $λ\,1549\,\text{Å}$ emission line. After marginalizing out nuisance parameters associated with the quasar continuum, a single spectrum constrains the IGM neutral fraction to $28.0_{-8.8}^{+8.2}\,\%$ and the quasar lifetime to $0.80_{-0.55}^{+0.22}\,\mathrm{dex}$, improving notably towards spectra with a stronger IGM damping wing imprint. Higher precision can be achieved by averaging over statistical quasar samples. We identify two primary sources of uncertainty that contribute approximately equally to the total error budget: the uncertain quasar continuum model and the stochastic distribution of neutral regions arising from both the reionization topology and the location of the quasar's ionization front.

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A Spatially Resolved [CII] Survey of 31 $z\sim7$ Massive Galaxies Hosting Luminous Quasars

The [CII] 158 $μ$m emission line and the underlying far-infrared (FIR) dust continuum are important tracers for studying star formation and kinematic properties of early galaxies. We present a survey of the [CII] emission lines and FIR continua of 31 luminous quasars at $z>6.5$ using the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) and the NOrthern Extended Millimeter Array (NOEMA) at sub-arcsec resolution. This survey more than doubles the number of quasars with [CII] and FIR observations at these redshifts and enables statistical studies of quasar host galaxies deep into the epoch of reionization. We detect [CII] emission in 27 quasar hosts with a luminosity range of $L_{\rm [CII]}=(0.3-5.5)\times10^9~L_\odot$ and detect the FIR continuum of 28 quasar hosts with a luminosity range of $L_{\rm FIR}=(0.5-13.0)\times10^{12}~L_\odot$. Both $L_{\rm [CII]}$ and $L_{\rm FIR}$ are correlated ($ρ\simeq0.4$) with the quasar bolometric luminosity, albeit with substantial scatter. The quasar hosts detected by ALMA are clearly resolved with a median diameter of $\sim$5 kpc. About 40% of the quasar host galaxies show a velocity gradient in [CII] emission, while the rest show either dispersion-dominated or disturbed kinematics. Basic estimates of the dynamical masses of the rotation-dominated host galaxies yield $M_{\rm dyn}=(0.1-7.5)\times10^{11}~M_\odot$. Considering our findings alongside those of literature studies, we found that the ratio between $M_{\rm BH}$ and $M_{\rm dyn}$ is about ten times higher than that of local $M_{\rm BH}-M_{\rm dyn}$ relation on average but with substantial scatter (the ratio difference ranging from $\sim$0.6 to 60) and large uncertainties.

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IGM damping wing constraints on the tail end of reionisation from the enlarged XQR-30 sample

The attenuation of Ly$α$ photons by neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM) at $z\gtrsim5$ continues to be a powerful probe for studying the epoch of reionisation. Given a framework to estimate the intrinsic (true) Ly$α$ emission of high-$z$ sources, one can infer the ionisation state of the IGM during reionisation. In this work, we use the enlarged XQR-30 sample of 42 high-resolution and high-SNR QSO spectra between $5.8\lesssim\,z\lesssim\,6.6$ obtained with VLT/X-Shooter to place constraints on the IGM neutral fraction. This is achieved using our existing Bayesian QSO reconstruction framework which accounts for uncertainties such as the: (i) posterior distribution of predicted intrinsic Ly$α$ emission profiles (obtained via covariance matrix reconstruction of the Ly$α$ and N V emission lines from unattenuated high-ionisation emission line profiles; C IV, Si IV + O IV] and C III]) and (ii) distribution of ionised regions within the IGM using synthetic damping wing profiles drawn from a $1.6^3$ Gpc$^3$ reionisation simulation. Following careful quality control, we used 23 of the 42 available QSOs to obtain constraints/limits on the IGM neutral fraction during the tail-end of reionisation. Our median and 68th percentile constraints on the IGM neutral fraction are: $0.20\substack{+0.14\\-0.12}$ and $0.29\substack{+0.14\\-0.13}$ at $z = 6.15$~and 6.35. Further, we also report 68th percentile upper-limits of $\bar{x}_{\mathrm{H\,{\scriptscriptstyle I}}} < 0.21$, 0.20, 0.21 and 0.18 at $z = 5.8, 5.95, 6.05$~and 6.55. These results imply reionisation is still ongoing at $5.8\lesssim\,z\lesssim\,6.55$, consistent with previous results from XQR-30 (dark fraction and Ly$α$ forest) along with other observational probes considered in the literature.

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Deep Learning the Intergalactic Medium using Lyman-alpha Forest at $ 4 \leq z \leq 5$

Unveiling the thermal history of the intergalactic medium (IGM) at $4 \leq z \leq 5$ holds the potential to reveal early onset HeII reionization or lingering thermal fluctuations from HI reionization. We set out to reconstruct the IGM gas properties along simulated Lyman-alpha forest data on pixel-by-pixel basis, employing deep Bayesian neural networks. Our approach leverages the Sherwood-Relics simulation suite, consisting of diverse thermal histories, to generate mock spectra. Our convolutional and residual networks with likelihood metric predicts the Ly$α$ optical depth-weighted density or temperature for each pixel in the Ly$α$ forest skewer. We find that our network can successfully reproduce IGM conditions with high fidelity across range of instrumental signal-to-noise. These predictions are subsequently translated into the temperature-density plane, facilitating the derivation of reliable constraints on thermal parameters. This allows us to estimate temperature at mean cosmic density, $T_{\rm 0}$ with one sigma confidence $δT_{\rm 0} \sim 1000{\rm K}$ using only one $20$Mpc/h sightline ($Δz\simeq 0.04$) with a typical reionization history. Existing studies utilize redshift pathlength comparable to $Δz\simeq 4$ for similar constraints. We can also provide more stringent constraints on the slope ($1σ$ confidence interval $δ{\rm γ} \lesssim 0.1$) of the IGM temperature-density relation as compared to other traditional approaches. We test the reconstruction on a single high signal-to-noise observed spectrum ($20$ Mpc/h segment), and recover thermal parameters consistent with current measurements. This machine learning approach has the potential to provide accurate yet robust measurements of IGM thermal history at the redshifts in question.

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Blind QSO reconstruction challenge: Exploring methods to reconstruct the Ly$α$ emission line of QSOs

Reconstructing the intrinsic Ly$α$ line flux from high-$z$ QSOs can place constraints on the neutral hydrogen content of the intergalactic medium during reionisation. There are now $\gtrsim10$ different Ly$α$ reconstruction pipelines using different methodologies to predict the Ly$α$ line flux from correlations with the spectral information redward of Ly$α$. However, there have been few attempts to directly compare the performance of these pipelines. Therefore, we devised a blind QSO challenge to compare these reconstruction pipelines on a uniform set of objects. Each author was provided de-identified, observed rest-frame QSO spectra with spectral information only redward of 1260Å rest-frame to ensure unbiased reconstruction. We constructed two samples of 30 QSOs, from X-Shooter and SDSS both spanning $3.5<z<4.5$. Importantly, the purpose of this comparison study was not to champion a single, best performing reconstruction pipeline but rather to explore the relative performance of these pipelines over a range of QSOs with broad observational characteristics to infer general trends. In summary, we find machine learning approaches in general provide the strongest ``best guesses" but underestimate the accompanying statistical uncertainty, although these can be recalibrated, whilst pipelines that decompose the spectral information, for example principal component or factor analysis generally perform better at predicting the Ly$α$ profile. Further, we found that reconstruction pipelines trained on SDSS QSOs performed similarly on average for both the X-Shooter and SDSS samples indicating no discernible biases owing to differences in the observational characteristics of the training set or QSO being reconstructed, although the recovered distributions of reconstructions for X-Shooter were broader likely due to an increased fraction of outliers.

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A Massive Protocluster Anchored by a Luminous Quasar at $z=6.63$

Protoclusters, the progenitors of galaxy clusters, trace large scale structures in the early Universe and are important to our understanding of structure formation and galaxy evolution. To date, only a handful of protoclusters have been identified in the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). As one of the rarest populations in the early Universe, distant quasars that host active supermassive black holes are thought to reside in the most massive dark matter halos at that cosmic epoch, and could thus potentially pinpoint some of the earliest protoclusters. In this letter, we report the discovery of a massive protocluster around a luminous quasar at $z=6.63$. This protocluster is anchored by the quasar, and includes three [CII] emitters at $z\sim6.63$, 12 spectroscopically confirmed Ly$α$ emitters (LAEs) at $6.54 30$ in its central region (i.e., $R\lesssim2$ cMpc). We estimate that this protocluster will collapse into a galaxy cluster with a mass of $6.9^{+1.2}_{-1.4}\times10^{15}~M_\odot$ at the current epoch, more massive than the most massive clusters known in the local Universe such as Coma. In the quasar vicinity, we discover a double-peaked LAE which implies that the quasar has a UV lifetime greater than 0.8 Myrs and has already ionized its surrounding intergalactic medium.

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Recognizing Blazars Using Radio Morphology from the VLA Sky Survey

Blazars are radio-loud Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) whose jets have a very small angle to our line of sight. Observationally, the radio emission are mostly compact or a compact-core with a 1-sided jet. With 2.5$^{\prime\prime}$ resolution at 3 GHz, the Very Large Array Sky Survey (VLASS) enables us to resolve the structure of some blazar candidates in the sky north of Decl. $-40$ deg. We introduce an algorithm to classify radio sources as either blazar-like or non-blazar-like based on their morphology in the VLASS images. We apply our algorithm to three existing catalogs, including one of known blazars (Roma-BzCAT) and two of blazar candidates identified by WISE colors and radio emission (WIBRaLS, KDEBLLACS). We show that in all three catalogs, there are objects with morphology inconsistent with being blazars. Considering all the catalogs, more than 12% of the candidates are unlikely to be blazars, based on this analysis. Notably, we show that 3% of the Roma-BzCAT "confirmed" blazars could be a misclassification based on their VLASS morphology. The resulting table with all sources and their radio morphological classification is available online.

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Constraints on the Evolution of the Ionizing Background and Ionizing Photon Mean Free Path at the End of Reionization

The variations in Ly$α$ forest opacity observed at $z>5.3$ between lines of sight to different background quasars are too strong to be caused by fluctuations in the density field alone. The leading hypothesis for the cause of this excess variance is a late, ongoing reionization process at redshifts below six. Another model proposes strong ionizing background fluctuations coupled to a short, spatially varying mean free path of ionizing photons, without explicitly invoking incomplete reionization. With recent observations suggesting a short mean free path at $z\sim6$, and a dramatic improvement in $z>5$ Ly$α$ forest data quality, we revisit this latter possibility. Here we apply the likelihood-free inference technique of approximate Bayesian computation to jointly constrain the hydrogen photoionization rate $Γ_{\rm HI}$ and the mean free path of ionizing photons $λ_{\rm mfp}$ from the effective optical depth distributions at $z=5.0$-$6.1$ from XQR-30. We find that the observations are well-described by fluctuating mean free path models with average mean free paths that are consistent with the steep trend implied by independent measurements at $z\sim5$-$6$, with a concomitant rapid evolution of the photoionization rate.

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Possible Contamination of the Intergalactic Medium Damping Wing in ULAS J1342+0928 by Proximate Damped Ly$α$ Absorption

The red damping wing from neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium is a smoking-gun signal of ongoing reionization. One potential contaminant of the intergalactic damping wing signal is dense gas associated with foreground galaxies, which can give rise to proximate damped Ly$α$ absorbers. The Ly$α$ imprint of such absorbers on background quasars is indistinguishable from the intergalactic medium within the uncertainty of the intrinsic quasar continuum, and their abundance at $z\gtrsim7$ is unknown. Here we show that the complex of low-ionization metal absorption systems recently discovered by deep JWST/NIRSpec observations in the foreground of the $z=7.54$ quasar ULAS~J1342$+$0928 can potentially reproduce the quasar's spectral profile close to rest-frame Ly$α$ without invoking a substantial contribution from the intergalactic medium, but only if the absorbing gas is extremely metal-poor ($[{\rm O}/{\rm H}]\sim-3.5$). Such a low oxygen abundance has never been observed in a damped Ly$α$ absorber at any redshift, but this possibility still complicates the interpretation of the spectrum. Our analysis highlights the need for deep spectroscopy of high-redshift quasars with JWST or ELT to "purify" damping wing quasar samples, an exercise which is impossible for much fainter objects like galaxies.

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Signatures of Small-scale Structure of the Pre-reionization Intergalactic Medium in $z\gtrsim7$ Quasar Proximity Zones

The small-scale structure of baryons in the intergalactic medium is intimately linked to their past thermal history. Prior to the $\gtrsim10^4$ K photoheating during the epoch of reionization, cold baryons may have closely traced the clumpy cosmic web of dark matter down to scales as low as $\lesssim1$ comoving kpc, depending on the degree of heating by the X-ray background. After the passage of the ionization front, this clumpy structure can persist for $\sim10^{8}$ years. The strong Ly$α$ damping wings detected towards a few of the highest redshift quasars, in addition to their smaller-than-expected Ly$α$-transmissive proximity zones, suggest that they have ionized and heated the foreground intergalactic medium less than $10^7$ years ago. Signatures of the pre-reionization small-scale structure should thus persist in their intergalactic surroundings. Here we explore how the persistence of this clumpy structure can affect the statistics of Ly$α$ transmission inside the transparent proximity zones of $z\gtrsim7$ quasars by post-processing a suite of small-volume hydrodynamical simulations with 1D ionizing radiative transfer. We find that the Ly$α$ flux power spectrum and flux PDF statistics of ten $z=7.5$ proximity zones, with realistic observational parameters, could distinguish the gaseous structure of a $T_{\rm IGM}\sim2$ K CDM model from warm dark matter models with particle masses $m_{\rm WDM}>10$ keV and X-ray heated models with $f_{\rm X}f_{\rm abs}>0.1$ ($T_{\rm IGM}(z=7.5)\gtrsim275$ K) at the $2σ$ level.

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The impact of varying inhomogeneous reionization histories on metrics of Ly$α$ opacity

The epoch of hydrogen reionization is complete by $z=5$, but its progression at higher redshifts is uncertain. Measurements of Ly$α$ forest opacity show large scatter at $z<6$, suggestive of spatial fluctuations in neutral fraction ($x_\mathrm{HI}$), temperature, or ionizing background, either individually or in combination. However, these effects are degenerate, necessitating modeling these physics in tandem in order to properly interpret the observations. We begin this process by developing a framework for modeling the reionization history and associated temperature fluctuations, with the intention of incorporating ionizing background fluctuations at a later time. To do this, we generate several reionization histories using semi-numerical code AMBER, selecting histories with volume-weighted neutral fractions that adhere to the observed CMB optical depth and dark pixel fractions. Implementing these histories in the \texttt{Nyx} cosmological hydrodynamics code, we examine the evolution of gas within the simulation, and the associated metrics of the Ly$α$ forest opacity. We find that the pressure smoothing scale within the IGM is strongly correlated with the adiabatic index of the temperature-density relation. We find that while models with 20,000 K photoheating at reionization are better able to reproduce the shape of the observed $z=5$ 1D flux power spectrum than those with 10,000 K, they fail to match the highest wavenumbers. The simulated autocorrelation function and optical depth distributions are systematically low and narrow, respectively, compared to the observed values, but are in better agreement when the reionization history is longer in duration, more symmetric in its distribution of reionization redshifts, or if there are remaining neutral regions at $z<6$. The systematically low variance likely requires the addition of a fluctuating UVB.

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Forecasting constraints on the high-z IGM thermal state from the Lyman-$α$ forest flux auto-correlation function

The auto-correlation function of the Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest flux from high-z quasars can statistically probe all scales of the intergalactic medium (IGM) just after the epoch of reionization. The thermal state of the IGM, which is determined by the physics of reionization, sets the amount of small-scale power seen in the \lya forest. To study the sensitivity of the auto-correlation function to the thermal state of the IGM, we compute the auto-correlation function from cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with semi-numerical models of the thermal state of the IGM. We create mock data sets of 20 quasars to forecast constraints on $T_0$ and $γ$, which characterize a tight temperature-density relation in the IGM, at $5.4 \leq z \leq 6$. At $z = 5.4$ we find that an ideal data set constrains $T_0$ to 29\% and $γ$ to 9\%. In addition, we investigate four realistic reionization scenarios that combine temperature and ultra-violet background (UVB) fluctuations at $z = 5.8$. We find that, when using mock data generated from a model that includes temperature and UVB fluctuations, we can rule out a model with no temperature or UVB fluctuations at $>1σ$ level 50.5\% of the time.

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