arXiv subjects

Gérard Biau

Publications and source records attributed to Gérard Biau.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting with Operator-Valued Kernels

Hierarchical time series forecasting requires generating accurate predictions that are coherent across multiple levels of aggregation. Existing methods either rely on two-stage pipelines with post-hoc reconciliation or on end-to-end models that often lack statistical guarantees. We introduce a unified framework that formulates hierarchical forecasting as a multivariate regression problem in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space. By designing structured operator-valued kernels, our approach enforces coherence directly within the hypothesis space, ensuring that all predictions satisfy hierarchical constraints by construction. We further propose tailored kernel constructions for hierarchical data and derive excess risk bounds that characterize generalization performance. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the relevance of the proposed method.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

A Geometry-Aware Residual Correction of Hagan's SABR Implied Volatility Formula

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology to improve the approximation of SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho) implied volatility by combining analytical structure with machine learning. The approach augments the neural-network input representation with geometric features derived from the stochastic differential equations of the SABR model. Unlike approaches that fully replace analytical formulas with black-box models, the proposed framework preserves the analytical backbone of the model. The hybridization operates along two complementary dimensions. First, geometry-aware variables reflecting intrinsic properties of the SABR dynamics are used as structured inputs to the network. Second, the neural network is trained to learn the residual error relative to Hagan's closed-form approximation rather than implied volatility directly. The resulting model acts as a structured residual correction to the analytical formula, retaining interpretability while capturing higher-order effects that are not included in the asymptotic expansion. Numerical experiments conducted over realistic parameter domains, as well as stressed environments, show that the method improves accuracy and robustness compared with both analytical approximations and standard neural-network approaches. Because the correction remains lightweight and structurally consistent with the underlying model, the framework is well suited for real-time pricing and calibration in practical trading environments.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

A Note on k-NN Gating in RAG

We propose a statistical proxy framework for retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) that formalizes how language models balance internal predictions with retrieved evidence. We derive an optimal query-level gate, analyze hallucination via retrieval discordance, model query-memory mismatch, and validate the framework numerically on synthetic and real data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Distilling LLM Feedback for Lean Theorem Proving

Post-training for reasoning models typically combines supervised fine-tuning with reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards, most commonly with GRPO. However, this algorithm suffers from sparse rewards, limited exploration, and mode collapse. Building upon recent works on self-distillation, we propose Feedback Distillation, a training method where the model is trained to match, at the token level, its own distribution conditioned on privileged feedback produced by a language model. Feedback Distillation offers token-level supervision and can inject external knowledge. Evaluating our method for Lean4 theorem-proving, we find that Feedback Distillation maintains greater diversity in generated trajectories than GRPO, yielding higher policy entropy and better pass@k scaling. The two methods are complementary: initializing GRPO from a Feedback Distillation checkpoint outperforms either method alone. All in all, our results suggest a promising avenue to improve post-training for complex reasoning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Influence as soft sparsity: Estimation of monotone functions on $\{0,1\}^d$

We study the problem of estimating a monotone function $f:\{0,1\}^d\to[0,1]$ from noisy observations at uniformly random vertices of the Boolean hypercube. As a measure of complexity for the target~$f$, we use the total $L^1$-influence $I(f)=\sum\_{i=1}^d(\E[f(X)\mid X\_i=1]-\E[f(X)\mid X\_i=0])$, a classical quantity in Boolean analysis that is nonnegative for monotone functions and controls the effective dimensionality of the estimation problem: through a spectral concentration result in the spirit of Friedgut's junta theorem, the Fourier spectrum of any $f$ with $I(f)\leqslant K$ concentrates on low-degree subsets of the influential coordinates. We establish minimax bounds over the class $\cF\_K=\{f:\{0,1\}^d\to[0,1],\;f\text{ monotone},\; I(f)\leqslant K\}$: \[ c\,\frac{K^2}{(\log n)^{3/2}} \;\leqslant\; \inf\_{\hat f}\;\sup\_{f\in\cF\_K}\; \E\bigl[\|\hat f - f\|\_2^2\bigr] \;\leqslant\; C\,\frac{K}{\sqrt{\log n}}, \] where $n$ is the sample size. The upper bound holds for all $K\geqslant 1$ and is uniform in the ambient dimension~$d$ (under the mild condition $\log d\leqslant n^{1-\varepsilon}$). It is achieved by a Fourier thresholding estimator that adapts to the unknown~$K$. The lower bound relies on a Varshamov--Gilbert packing on the middle layer of the hypercube combined with Fano's inequality.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Stopping in Latent Diffusion Models

We identify and analyze a surprising phenomenon of Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) where the final steps of the diffusion can degrade sample quality. In contrast to conventional arguments that justify early stopping for numerical stability, this phenomenon is intrinsic to the dimensionality reduction in LDMs. We provide a principled explanation by analyzing the interaction between latent dimension and stopping time. Under a Gaussian framework with linear autoencoders, we characterize the conditions under which early stopping is needed to minimize the distance between generated and target distributions. More precisely, we show that lower-dimensional representations benefit from earlier termination, whereas higher-dimensional latent spaces require later stopping time. We further establish that the latent dimension interplays with other hyperparameters of the problem such as constraints in the parameters of score matching. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets illustrate these properties, underlining that early stopping can improve generative quality. Together, our results offer a theoretical foundation for understanding how the latent dimension influences the sample quality, and highlight stopping time as a key hyperparameter in LDMs.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

On the convergence of PINNs

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are a promising approach that combines the power of neural networks with the interpretability of physical modeling. PINNs have shown good practical performance in solving partial differential equations (PDEs) and in hybrid modeling scenarios, where physical models enhance data-driven approaches. However, it is essential to establish their theoretical properties in order to fully understand their capabilities and limitations. In this study, we highlight that classical training of PINNs can suffer from systematic overfitting. This problem can be addressed by adding a ridge regularization to the empirical risk, which ensures that the resulting estimator is risk-consistent for both linear and nonlinear PDE systems. However, the strong convergence of PINNs to a solution satisfying the physical constraints requires a more involved analysis using tools from functional analysis and calculus of variations. In particular, for linear PDE systems, an implementable Sobolev-type regularization allows to reconstruct a solution that not only achieves statistical accuracy but also maintains consistency with the underlying physics.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Fast kernel methods: Sobolev, physics-informed, and additive models

Kernel methods are powerful tools in statistical learning, but their cubic complexity in the sample size n limits their use on large-scale datasets. In this work, we introduce a scalable framework for kernel regression with O(n log n) complexity, fully leveraging GPU acceleration. The approach is based on a Fourier representation of kernels combined with non-uniform fast Fourier transforms (NUFFT), enabling exact, fast, and memory-efficient computations. We instantiate our framework in three settings: Sobolev kernel regression, physics-informed regression, and additive models. When known, the proposed estimators are shown to achieve minimax convergence rates, consistent with classical kernel theory. Empirical results demonstrate that our methods can process up to tens of billions of samples within minutes, providing both statistical accuracy and computational scalability. These contributions establish a flexible approach, paving the way for the routine application of kernel methods in large-scale learning tasks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Optimal treatment regimes for the net benefit of a treatment

We develop a mathematical framework to define an optimal individualized treatment rule (ITR) within the context of prioritized outcomes in a randomized controlled trial. Our optimality criterion is based on the framework of generalized pairwise comparisons. We propose two approaches for estimating optimal ITRs on a pairwise basis. The first approach is a variant of the k-nearest neighbors algorithm. The second approach is a meta-learning method based on a randomized bagging scheme, which enables the use of any classification algorithm to construct an ITR. We investigate the theoretical properties of these estimation procedures, evaluate their performance through Monte Carlo simulations, and demonstrate their application to clinical trial data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Taking a Big Step: Large Learning Rates in Denoising Score Matching Prevent Memorization

Denoising score matching plays a pivotal role in the performance of diffusion-based generative models. However, the empirical optimal score--the exact solution to the denoising score matching--leads to memorization, where generated samples replicate the training data. Yet, in practice, only a moderate degree of memorization is observed, even without explicit regularization. In this paper, we investigate this phenomenon by uncovering an implicit regularization mechanism driven by large learning rates. Specifically, we show that in the small-noise regime, the empirical optimal score exhibits high irregularity. We then prove that, when trained by stochastic gradient descent with a large enough learning rate, neural networks cannot stably converge to a local minimum with arbitrarily small excess risk. Consequently, the learned score cannot be arbitrarily close to the empirical optimal score, thereby mitigating memorization. To make the analysis tractable, we consider one-dimensional data and two-layer neural networks. Experiments validate the crucial role of the learning rate in preventing memorization, even beyond the one-dimensional setting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Scaling ResNets in the Large-depth Regime

Deep ResNets are recognized for achieving state-of-the-art results in complex machine learning tasks. However, the remarkable performance of these architectures relies on a training procedure that needs to be carefully crafted to avoid vanishing or exploding gradients, particularly as the depth $L$ increases. No consensus has been reached on how to mitigate this issue, although a widely discussed strategy consists in scaling the output of each layer by a factor $α_L$. We show in a probabilistic setting that with standard i.i.d.~initializations, the only non-trivial dynamics is for $α_L = \frac{1}{\sqrt{L}}$; other choices lead either to explosion or to identity mapping. This scaling factor corresponds in the continuous-time limit to a neural stochastic differential equation, contrarily to a widespread interpretation that deep ResNets are discretizations of neural ordinary differential equations. By contrast, in the latter regime, stability is obtained with specific correlated initializations and $α_L = \frac{1}{L}$. Our analysis suggests a strong interplay between scaling and regularity of the weights as a function of the layer index. Finally, in a series of experiments, we exhibit a continuous range of regimes driven by these two parameters, which jointly impact performance before and after training.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Attention layers provably solve single-location regression

Attention-based models, such as Transformer, excel across various tasks but lack a comprehensive theoretical understanding, especially regarding token-wise sparsity and internal linear representations. To address this gap, we introduce the single-location regression task, where only one token in a sequence determines the output, and its position is a latent random variable, retrievable via a linear projection of the input. To solve this task, we propose a dedicated predictor, which turns out to be a simplified version of a non-linear self-attention layer. We study its theoretical properties, by showing its asymptotic Bayes optimality and analyzing its training dynamics. In particular, despite the non-convex nature of the problem, the predictor effectively learns the underlying structure. This work highlights the capacity of attention mechanisms to handle sparse token information and internal linear structures.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Forecasting time series with constraints

Time series forecasting presents unique challenges that limit the effectiveness of traditional machine learning algorithms. To address these limitations, various approaches have incorporated linear constraints into learning algorithms, such as generalized additive models and hierarchical forecasting. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for integrating and combining linear constraints in time series forecasting. Within this framework, we show that the exact minimizer of the constrained empirical risk can be computed efficiently using linear algebra alone. This approach allows for highly scalable implementations optimized for GPUs. We validate the proposed methodology through extensive benchmarking on real-world tasks, including electricity demand forecasting and tourism forecasting, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Physics-informed kernel learning

Physics-informed machine learning typically integrates physical priors into the learning process by minimizing a loss function that includes both a data-driven term and a partial differential equation (PDE) regularization. Building on the formulation of the problem as a kernel regression task, we use Fourier methods to approximate the associated kernel, and propose a tractable estimator that minimizes the physics-informed risk function. We refer to this approach as physics-informed kernel learning (PIKL). This framework provides theoretical guarantees, enabling the quantification of the physical prior's impact on convergence speed. We demonstrate the numerical performance of the PIKL estimator through simulations, both in the context of hybrid modeling and in solving PDEs. In particular, we show that PIKL can outperform physics-informed neural networks in terms of both accuracy and computation time. Additionally, we identify cases where PIKL surpasses traditional PDE solvers, particularly in scenarios with noisy boundary conditions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Implicit regularization of deep residual networks towards neural ODEs

Residual neural networks are state-of-the-art deep learning models. Their continuous-depth analog, neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs), are also widely used. Despite their success, the link between the discrete and continuous models still lacks a solid mathematical foundation. In this article, we take a step in this direction by establishing an implicit regularization of deep residual networks towards neural ODEs, for nonlinear networks trained with gradient flow. We prove that if the network is initialized as a discretization of a neural ODE, then such a discretization holds throughout training. Our results are valid for a finite training time, and also as the training time tends to infinity provided that the network satisfies a Polyak-Lojasiewicz condition. Importantly, this condition holds for a family of residual networks where the residuals are two-layer perceptrons with an overparameterization in width that is only linear, and implies the convergence of gradient flow to a global minimum. Numerical experiments illustrate our results.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Physics-informed machine learning as a kernel method

Physics-informed machine learning combines the expressiveness of data-based approaches with the interpretability of physical models. In this context, we consider a general regression problem where the empirical risk is regularized by a partial differential equation that quantifies the physical inconsistency. We prove that for linear differential priors, the problem can be formulated as a kernel regression task. Taking advantage of kernel theory, we derive convergence rates for the minimizer of the regularized risk and show that it converges at least at the Sobolev minimax rate. However, faster rates can be achieved, depending on the physical error. This principle is illustrated with a one-dimensional example, supporting the claim that regularizing the empirical risk with physical information can be beneficial to the statistical performance of estimators.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Optimal 1-Wasserstein Distance for WGANs

The mathematical forces at work behind Generative Adversarial Networks raise challenging theoretical issues. Motivated by the important question of characterizing the geometrical properties of the generated distributions, we provide a thorough analysis of Wasserstein GANs (WGANs) in both the finite sample and asymptotic regimes. We study the specific case where the latent space is univariate and derive results valid regardless of the dimension of the output space. We show in particular that for a fixed sample size, the optimal WGANs are closely linked with connected paths minimizing the sum of the squared Euclidean distances between the sample points. We also highlight the fact that WGANs are able to approach (for the 1-Wasserstein distance) the target distribution as the sample size tends to infinity, at a given convergence rate and provided the family of generative Lipschitz functions grows appropriately. We derive in passing new results on optimal transport theory in the semi-discrete setting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

The insertion method to invert the signature of a path

The signature is a representation of a path as an infinite sequence of its iterated integrals. Under certain assumptions, the signature characterizes the path, up to translation and reparameterization. Therefore, a crucial question of interest is the development of efficient algorithms to invert the signature, i.e., to reconstruct the path from the information of its (truncated) signature. In this article, we study the insertion procedure, originally introduced by Chang and Lyons (2019), from both a theoretical and a practical point of view. After describing our version of the method, we give its rate of convergence for piecewise linear paths, accompanied by an implementation in Pytorch. The algorithm is parallelized, meaning that it is very efficient at inverting a batch of signatures simultaneously. Its performance is illustrated with both real-world and simulated examples.

stat.ME↗