arXiv subjects

Gérard Biau

Publications and source records attributed to Gérard Biau.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

SHAFF: Fast and consistent SHApley eFfect estimates via random Forests

Interpretability of learning algorithms is crucial for applications involving critical decisions, and variable importance is one of the main interpretation tools. Shapley effects are now widely used to interpret both tree ensembles and neural networks, as they can efficiently handle dependence and interactions in the data, as opposed to most other variable importance measures. However, estimating Shapley effects is a challenging task, because of the computational complexity and the conditional expectation estimates. Accordingly, existing Shapley algorithms have flaws: a costly running time, or a bias when input variables are dependent. Therefore, we introduce SHAFF, SHApley eFfects via random Forests, a fast and accurate Shapley effect estimate, even when input variables are dependent. We show SHAFF efficiency through both a theoretical analysis of its consistency, and the practical performance improvements over competitors with extensive experiments. An implementation of SHAFF in C++ and R is available online.

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arXiv2021

Framing RNN as a kernel method: A neural ODE approach

Building on the interpretation of a recurrent neural network (RNN) as a continuous-time neural differential equation, we show, under appropriate conditions, that the solution of a RNN can be viewed as a linear function of a specific feature set of the input sequence, known as the signature. This connection allows us to frame a RNN as a kernel method in a suitable reproducing kernel Hilbert space. As a consequence, we obtain theoretical guarantees on generalization and stability for a large class of recurrent networks. Our results are illustrated on simulated datasets.

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arXiv2021

Some Theoretical Insights into Wasserstein GANs

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been successful in producing outstanding results in areas as diverse as image, video, and text generation. Building on these successes, a large number of empirical studies have validated the benefits of the cousin approach called Wasserstein GANs (WGANs), which brings stabilization in the training process. In the present paper, we add a new stone to the edifice by proposing some theoretical advances in the properties of WGANs. First, we properly define the architecture of WGANs in the context of integral probability metrics parameterized by neural networks and highlight some of their basic mathematical features. We stress in particular interesting optimization properties arising from the use of a parametric 1-Lipschitz discriminator. Then, in a statistically-driven approach, we study the convergence of empirical WGANs as the sample size tends to infinity, and clarify the adversarial effects of the generator and the discriminator by underlining some trade-off properties. These features are finally illustrated with experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets.

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arXiv2021

Wasserstein Random Forests and Applications in Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

We present new insights into causal inference in the context of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects by proposing natural variants of Random Forests to estimate the key conditional distributions. To achieve this, we recast Breiman's original splitting criterion in terms of Wasserstein distances between empirical measures. This reformulation indicates that Random Forests are well adapted to estimate conditional distributions and provides a natural extension of the algorithm to multivariate outputs. Following the philosophy of Breiman's construction, we propose some variants of the splitting rule that are well-suited to the conditional distribution estimation problem. Some preliminary theoretical connections are established along with various numerical experiments, which show how our approach may help to conduct more transparent causal inference in complex situations.

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arXiv2021

Interpretable Random Forests via Rule Extraction

We introduce SIRUS (Stable and Interpretable RUle Set) for regression, a stable rule learning algorithm which takes the form of a short and simple list of rules. State-of-the-art learning algorithms are often referred to as "black boxes" because of the high number of operations involved in their prediction process. Despite their powerful predictivity, this lack of interpretability may be highly restrictive for applications with critical decisions at stake. On the other hand, algorithms with a simple structure-typically decision trees, rule algorithms, or sparse linear models-are well known for their instability. This undesirable feature makes the conclusions of the data analysis unreliable and turns out to be a strong operational limitation. This motivates the design of SIRUS, which combines a simple structure with a remarkable stable behavior when data is perturbed. The algorithm is based on random forests, the predictive accuracy of which is preserved. We demonstrate the efficiency of the method both empirically (through experiments) and theoretically (with the proof of its asymptotic stability). Our R/C++ software implementation sirus is available from CRAN.

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arXiv2020

SIRUS: Stable and Interpretable RUle Set for Classification

State-of-the-art learning algorithms, such as random forests or neural networks, are often qualified as "black-boxes" because of the high number and complexity of operations involved in their prediction mechanism. This lack of interpretability is a strong limitation for applications involving critical decisions, typically the analysis of production processes in the manufacturing industry. In such critical contexts, models have to be interpretable, i.e., simple, stable, and predictive. To address this issue, we design SIRUS (Stable and Interpretable RUle Set), a new classification algorithm based on random forests, which takes the form of a short list of rules. While simple models are usually unstable with respect to data perturbation, SIRUS achieves a remarkable stability improvement over cutting-edge methods. Furthermore, SIRUS inherits a predictive accuracy close to random forests, combined with the simplicity of decision trees. These properties are assessed both from a theoretical and empirical point of view, through extensive numerical experiments based on our R/C++ software implementation sirus available from CRAN.

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arXiv2019

COBRA: A Combined Regression Strategy

A new method for combining several initial estimators of the regression function is introduced. Instead of building a linear or convex optimized combination over a collection of basic estimators $r_1,\dots,r_M$, we use them as a collective indicator of the proximity between the training data and a test observation. This local distance approach is model-free and very fast. More specifically, the resulting nonparametric/nonlinear combined estimator is shown to perform asymptotically at least as well in the $L^2$ sense as the best combination of the basic estimators in the collective. A companion R package called \cobra (standing for COmBined Regression Alternative) is presented (downloadable on \url{http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/COBRA/index.html}). Substantial numerical evidence is provided on both synthetic and real data sets to assess the excellent performance and velocity of our method in a large variety of prediction problems.

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arXiv2018

Neural Random Forests

Given an ensemble of randomized regression trees, it is possible to restructure them as a collection of multilayered neural networks with particular connection weights. Following this principle, we reformulate the random forest method of Breiman (2001) into a neural network setting, and in turn propose two new hybrid procedures that we call neural random forests. Both predictors exploit prior knowledge of regression trees for their architecture, have less parameters to tune than standard networks, and less restrictions on the geometry of the decision boundaries than trees. Consistency results are proved, and substantial numerical evidence is provided on both synthetic and real data sets to assess the excellent performance of our methods in a large variety of prediction problems.

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arXiv2018

Accelerated Gradient Boosting

Gradient tree boosting is a prediction algorithm that sequentially produces a model in the form of linear combinations of decision trees, by solving an infinite-dimensional optimization problem. We combine gradient boosting and Nesterov's accelerated descent to design a new algorithm, which we call AGB (for Accelerated Gradient Boosting). Substantial numerical evidence is provided on both synthetic and real-life data sets to assess the excellent performance of the method in a large variety of prediction problems. It is empirically shown that AGB is much less sensitive to the shrinkage parameter and outputs predictors that are considerably more sparse in the number of trees, while retaining the exceptional performance of gradient boosting.

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arXiv2017

Optimization by gradient boosting

Gradient boosting is a state-of-the-art prediction technique that sequentially produces a model in the form of linear combinations of simple predictors---typically decision trees---by solving an infinite-dimensional convex optimization problem. We provide in the present paper a thorough analysis of two widespread versions of gradient boosting, and introduce a general framework for studying these algorithms from the point of view of functional optimization. We prove their convergence as the number of iterations tends to infinity and highlight the importance of having a strongly convex risk functional to minimize. We also present a reasonable statistical context ensuring consistency properties of the boosting predictors as the sample size grows. In our approach, the optimization procedures are run forever (that is, without resorting to an early stopping strategy), and statistical regularization is basically achieved via an appropriate $L^2$ penalization of the loss and strong convexity arguments.

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arXiv2015

A Random Forest Guided Tour

The random forest algorithm, proposed by L. Breiman in 2001, has been extremely successful as a general-purpose classification and regression method. The approach, which combines several randomized decision trees and aggregates their predictions by averaging, has shown excellent performance in settings where the number of variables is much larger than the number of observations. Moreover, it is versatile enough to be applied to large-scale problems, is easily adapted to various ad-hoc learning tasks, and returns measures of variable importance. The present article reviews the most recent theoretical and methodological developments for random forests. Emphasis is placed on the mathematical forces driving the algorithm, with special attention given to the selection of parameters, the resampling mechanism, and variable importance measures. This review is intended to provide non-experts easy access to the main ideas.

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arXiv2015

Long signal change-point detection

The detection of change-points in a spatially or time ordered data sequence is an important problem in many fields such as genetics and finance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of a statistic recently suggested for detecting change-points. Simulation of its estimated limit distribution leads to a new and computationally efficient change-point detection algorithm, which can be used on very long signals. We assess the algorithm via simulations and on previously benchmarked real-world data sets.

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arXiv2015

Consistency of random forests

Random forests are a learning algorithm proposed by Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] that combines several randomized decision trees and aggregates their predictions by averaging. Despite its wide usage and outstanding practical performance, little is known about the mathematical properties of the procedure. This disparity between theory and practice originates in the difficulty to simultaneously analyze both the randomization process and the highly data-dependent tree structure. In the present paper, we take a step forward in forest exploration by proving a consistency result for Breiman's [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] original algorithm in the context of additive regression models. Our analysis also sheds an interesting light on how random forests can nicely adapt to sparsity. 1. Introduction. Random forests are an ensemble learning method for classification and regression that constructs a number of randomized decision trees during the training phase and predicts by averaging the results. Since its publication in the seminal paper of Breiman (2001), the procedure has become a major data analysis tool, that performs well in practice in comparison with many standard methods. What has greatly contributed to the popularity of forests is the fact that they can be applied to a wide range of prediction problems and have few parameters to tune. Aside from being simple to use, the method is generally recognized for its accuracy and its ability to deal with small sample sizes, high-dimensional feature spaces and complex data structures. The random forest methodology has been successfully involved in many practical problems, including air quality prediction (winning code of the EMC data science global hackathon in 2012, see http://www.kaggle.com/c/dsg-hackathon), chemoinformatics [Svetnik et al. (2003)], ecology [Prasad, Iverson and Liaw (2006), Cutler et al. (2007)], 3D

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arXiv2015

The Statistical Performance of Collaborative Inference

The statistical analysis of massive and complex data sets will require the development of algorithms that depend on distributed computing and collaborative inference. Inspired by this, we propose a collaborative framework that aims to estimate the unknown mean $θ$ of a random variable $X$. In the model we present, a certain number of calculation units, distributed across a communication network represented by a graph, participate in the estimation of $θ$ by sequentially receiving independent data from $X$ while exchanging messages via a stochastic matrix $A$ defined over the graph. We give precise conditions on the matrix $A$ under which the statistical precision of the individual units is comparable to that of a (gold standard) virtual centralized estimate, even though each unit does not have access to all of the data. We show in particular the fundamental role played by both the non-trivial eigenvalues of $A$ and the Ramanujan class of expander graphs, which provide remarkable performance for moderate algorithmic cost.

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arXiv2014

Cox process functional learning

This article addresses the problem of functional supervised classification of Cox process trajectories, whose random intensity is driven by some exogenous random covariable. The classification task is achieved through a regularized convex empirical risk minimization procedure, and a nonasymptotic oracle inequality is derived. We show that the algorithm provides a Bayes-risk consistent classifier. Furthermore, it is proved that the classifier converges at a rate which adapts to the unknown regularity of the intensity process. Our results are obtained by taking advantage of martingale and stochastic calculus arguments, which are natural in this context and fully exploit the functional nature of the problem.

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arXiv2014

Online Asynchronous Distributed Regression

Distributed computing offers a high degree of flexibility to accommodate modern learning constraints and the ever increasing size of datasets involved in massive data issues. Drawing inspiration from the theory of distributed computation models developed in the context of gradient-type optimization algorithms, we present a consensus-based asynchronous distributed approach for nonparametric online regression and analyze some of its asymptotic properties. Substantial numerical evidence involving up to 28 parallel processors is provided on synthetic datasets to assess the excellent performance of our method, both in terms of computation time and prediction accuracy.

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arXiv2013

High-dimensional $p$-norms

Let $\bX=(X_1, \hdots, X_d)$ be a $\mathbb R^d$-valued random vector with i.i.d. components, and let $\Vert\bX\Vert_p= (\sum_{j=1}^d|X_j|^p)^{1/p}$ be its $p$-norm, for $p>0$. The impact of letting $d$ go to infinity on $\Vert\bX\Vert_p$ has surprising consequences, which may dramatically affect high-dimensional data processing. This effect is usually referred to as the {\it distance concentration phenomenon} in the computational learning literature. Despite a growing interest in this important question, previous work has essentially characterized the problem in terms of numerical experiments and incomplete mathematical statements. In the present paper, we solidify some of the arguments which previously appeared in the literature and offer new insights into the phenomenon.

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arXiv2013

Cellular Tree Classifiers

The cellular tree classifier model addresses a fundamental problem in the design of classifiers for a parallel or distributed computing world: Given a data set, is it sufficient to apply a majority rule for classification, or shall one split the data into two or more parts and send each part to a potentially different computer (or cell) for further processing? At first sight, it seems impossible to define with this paradigm a consistent classifier as no cell knows the "original data size", $n$. However, we show that this is not so by exhibiting two different consistent classifiers. The consistency is universal but is only shown for distributions with nonatomic marginals.

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