arXiv subjects

Gabor Toth

Publications and source records attributed to Gabor Toth.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Solar Wind Driven from GONG Magnetograms in the Last Solar Cycle

In a previous study, Huang et al. (2023) used the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM), one of the widely used solar wind models in the community, driven by ADAPT-GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind in the last solar cycle and found that the optimal Poynting flux parameter can be estimated from either the open field area or the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field in the open field regions. It was also found that the average energy deposition rate (Poynting flux) in the open field regions is approximately constant. In the current study, we expand the previous work by using GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind for the same Carrington rotations and determine if the results are similar to the ones obtained with ADAPT-GONG magnetograms. Our results indicate that similar correlations can be obtained from the GONG maps. Moreover, we report that ADAPT-GONG magnetograms can consistently provide better comparisons with 1 AU solar wind observations than GONG magnetograms, based on the best simulations selected by the minimum of the average curve distance for the solar wind speed and density.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Adjusting the Potential Field Source Surface Height Based on MHD Simulations

A potential field solution is widely used to extrapolate the coronal magnetic field above the Sun's surface to a certain height. This model applies the current-free approximation and assumes that the magnetic field is entirely radial beyond the source surface height, which is defined as the radial distance from the center of the Sun. Even though the source surface is commonly specified at 2.5 Rs (solar radii), previous studies have suggested that this value is not optimal in all cases. In this study, we propose a novel approach to specify the source surface height, by comparing the areas of the open magnetic field regions from the potential field solution with predictions made by a magnetohydrodynamics model, in our case the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model. We find that the adjusted source surface height is significantly less than 2.5 Rs near solar minimum, and slightly larger than 2.5 Rs near solar maximum. We also report that the adjusted source surface height can provide a better open flux agreement with the observations near the solar minimum, while the comparison near the solar maximum is slightly worse.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Detection of an Arbitrary Number of Communities in a Block Spin Ising Model

We study the problem of community detection in a general version of the block spin Ising model featuring M groups, a model inspired by the Curie-Weiss model of ferromagnetism in statistical mechanics. We solve the general problem of identifying any number of groups with any possible coupling constants. Up to now, the problem was only solved for the specific situation with two groups of identical size and identical interactions. Our results can be applied to the most realistic situations, in which there are many groups of different sizes and different interactions. In addition, we give an explicit algorithm that permits the reconstruction of the structure of the model from a sample of observations based on the comparison of empirical correlations of the spin variables, thus unveiling easy applications of the model to real-world voting data and communities in biology.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Solar Wind with Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model: Application to Historical Solar Energetic Particle Events

In this paper, we demonstrate the applicability of the data-driven and self-consistent solar energetic particle model, Solar-wind with FIeld-lines and Energetic-particles (SOFIE), to simulate acceleration and transport processes of solar energetic particles. SOFIE model is built upon the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) developed at the University of Michigan. In SOFIE, the background solar wind plasma in the solar corona and interplanetary space is calculated by the Aflvén Wave Solar-atmosphere Model(-Realtime) (AWSoM-R) driven by the near-real-time hourly updated Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) solar magnetograms. In the background solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are launched by placing an imbalanced magnetic flux rope on top of the parent active region, using the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low model (EEGGL). The acceleration and transport processes are modeled by the Multiple-Field-Line Advection Model for Particle Acceleration (M-FLAMPA). In this work, nine solar energetic particle events (Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) challenge/campaign events) are modeled. The three modules in SOFIE are validated and evaluated by comparing with observations, including the steady-state background solar wind properties, the white-light image of the CME, and the flux of solar energetic protons, at energies of > 10 MeV.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Modeling the Solar Wind During Different Phases of the Last Solar Cycle

We describe our first attempt to systematically simulate the solar wind during different phases of the last solar cycle with the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) developed at the University of Michigan. Key to this study is the determination of the optimal values of one of the most important input parameters of the model, the Poynting flux parameter, which prescribes the energy flux passing through the chromospheric boundary of the model in the form of Alfvén wave turbulence. It is found that the optimal value of the Poynting flux parameter is correlated with the area of the open magnetic field regions with the Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0.96 and anti-correlated with the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field with the Spearman's correlation coefficient of -0.91. Moreover, the Poynting flux in the open field regions is approximately constant in the last solar cycle, which needs to be validated with observations and can shed light on how Alfvén wave turbulence accelerates the solar wind during different phases of the solar cycle. Our results can also be used to set the Poynting flux parameter for real-time solar wind simulations with AWSoM.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Numerical Study of Magnetic Island Coalescence Using Magnetohydrodynamics With Adaptively Embedded Particle-In-Cell Model

Collisionless magnetic reconnection typically requires kinetic treatments that are, in general, computationally expensive compared to fluid-based models. In this study, we use the magnetohydrodynamics with adaptively embedded particle-in-cell (MHD-AEPIC) model to study the interaction of two magnetic flux ropes. This innovative model embeds one or more adaptive PIC regions into a global MHD simulation domain such that the kinetic treatment is only applied in regions where kinetic physics is prominent. We compare the simulation results among three cases: 1) MHD with adaptively embedded PIC regions, 2) MHD with statically (or fixed) embedded PIC regions, and 3) a full PIC simulation. The comparison yields good agreement when analyzing their reconnection rates and magnetic island separations, as well as the ion pressure tensor elements and ion agyrotropy. In order to reach a good agreement among the three cases, large adaptive PIC regions are needed within the MHD domain, which indicates that the magnetic island coalescence problem is highly kinetic in nature where the coupling between the macro-scale MHD and micro-scale kinetic physics is important.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2023

Formation of Magnetic Switchbacks Observed by Parker Solar Probe

Magnetic switchbacks are rapid high amplitude reversals of the radial magnetic field in the solar wind that do not involve a heliospheric current sheet crossing. First seen sporadically in the seventies in Mariner and Helios data, switchbacks were later observed by the Ulysses spacecraft beyond 1 au and have been recently identified as a typical component of solar wind fluctuations in the inner heliosphere by the Parker Solar Probe spacecraft. Here we provide a simple yet predictive theory for the formation of these magnetic reversals: the switchbacks are produced by the shear of circularly polarized Alfvén waves by a transversely varying radial wave propagation velocity. We provide an analytic expression for the magnetic field variation, establish the necessary and sufficient conditions and show that the mechanism works in a realistic solar wind scenario.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Solar wind modeling with the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model driven by HMI-based Near-Real-Time maps by the National Solar Observatory

We explore model performance for the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) with near-real-time (NRT) synoptic maps of the photospheric vector magnetic field. These maps, produced by assimilating data from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), use a different method developed at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) to provide a near contemporaneous source of data to drive numerical models. Here, we apply these NSO-HMI-NRT maps to simulate three Carrington rotations (CRs): 2107-2108 (centered on 2011/03/07 20:12 CME event), 2123 (integer CR) and 2218--2219 (centered on 2019/07/2 solar eclipse), which together cover a wide range of activity level for solar cycle 24. We show simulation results, which reproduce both extreme ultraviolet emission (EUV) from the low corona while simultaneously matching in situ observations at 1 au as well as quantify the total unsigned open magnetic flux from these maps.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

High Resolution Finite Volume Method for Kinetic Equations with Poisson Brackets

Simulation of plasmas in electromagnetic fields requires numerical solution of a kinetic equation that describes the time evolution of the particle distribution function. In this paper we propose a finite volume scheme based on integral relation for Poisson brackets to solve the Liouville equation, the most fundamental kinetic equation. The proposed scheme conserves the number of particles, maintains the total-variation-diminishing (TVD) property, and provides high-quality numerical results. Other types of kinetic equations may be also formulated in terms of Poisson brackets and solved with the proposed method including the transport equations describing the acceleration and propagation of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), which is of practical importance, since the high energy SEPs produce radiation hazards. The proposed scheme is demonstrated to be accurate and efficient, which makes it applicable to global simulation systems analyzing space weather.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2022

Limit Theorems for Multi-Group Curie-Weiss Models via the Method of Moments

We study a multi-group version of the mean-field or Curie-Weiss spin model. For this model, we show how, analogously to the classical (single-group) model, the three temperature regimes are defined. Then we use the method of moments to determine for each regime how the vector of the group magnetisations behaves asymptotically. Some possible applications to social or political sciences are discussed.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Collective Bias Models in Two-Tier Voting Systems and the Democracy Deficit

We analyse optimal voting weights in two-tier voting systems. In our model, the overall population (or union) is split in groups (or member states) of different sizes. The individuals comprising the overall population constitute the first tier, and the council is the second tier. Each group has a representative in the council that casts votes on their behalf. By "optimal weights", we mean voting weights in the council which minimise the democracy deficit, i.e. the expected deviation of the council vote from a (hypothetical) popular vote. We assume that the voters within each group interact via what we call a local collective bias or common belief (through tradition, common values, strong religious beliefs, etc.). We allow in addition an interaction across group borders via a global bias. Thus, the voting behaviour of each voter depends on the behaviour of all other voters. This correlation may be stronger between voters in the same group, but is in general not zero for voters in different groups. We call the respective voting measure a Collective Bias Model (CBM). The "simple CBM" introduced in [12] and in particular the Impartial Culture and the Impartial Anonymous Culture are special cases of our general model. We compute the optimal weights in the large population limit. Those optimal weights are unique as long as there is no "complete" correlation between the groups. In this case, we obtain optimal weights which are the sum of a common constant equal for all groups and a summand which is proportional to the population of each group. We also analyse the conditions under which the optimal weights are negative, thus making it impossible to reach the theoretical minimum of the democracy deficit. This is a new aspect of the model owed to the correlation between votes belonging to different groups.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Deviations from the Majority: A Local Flip Model

We study the effect of probabilistic distortions to the local majority rules used in the Galam model of opinion dynamics and bottom-up hierarchical voting. A different probability for a flip against the local majority within the discussion group is associated with each ratio of majority / minority. The cases of groups of sizes 3 and 5 are investigated in detail. For hierarchical voting, the local flip corresponds to a `faithless elector', a representative who decides to vote against the choice of their electing group. Depending on the flip probabilities, the model exhibits a rich variety of patterns for the dynamics, which include novel features in the topology of the landscape. In particular, for size 5, we uncover for the first time an interplay between five fixed points, which split into either three attractors and two tipping points or two attractors and three tipping points, depending on the flip probabilities. Larger groups are also analysed. These features were absent in the former versions of the Galam model, which has at maximum three fixed points for any group size. The results shed a new light on a series of social phenomena triggered by one single individual who acts against the local majority.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Magnetohydrodynamic with Adaptively Embedded Particle-in-Cell model: MHD-AEPIC

Space plasma simulations have seen an increase in the use of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) with embedded Particle-in-Cell (PIC) models. This combined MHD-EPIC algorithm simulates some regions of interest using the kinetic PIC method while employing the MHD description in the rest of the domain. The MHD models are highly efficient and their fluid descriptions are valid for most part of the computational domain, thus making large-scale global simulations feasible. However, in practical applications, the regions where the kinetic effects are critical can be changing, appearing, disappearing and moving in the computational domain. If a static PIC region is used, this requires a much larger PIC domain than actually needed, which can increase the computational cost dramatically. To address the problem, we have developed a new method that is able to dynamically change the region of the computational domain where a PIC model is applied. We have implemented this new MHD with Adaptively Embedded PIC (MHD-AEPIC) algorithm using the BATS-R-US Hall MHD and the Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS) as the semi-implicit PIC models. We describe the algorithm and present a test case of two merging flux ropes to demonstrate its accuracy. The implementation uses dynamic allocation/deallocation of memory and load balancing for efficient parallel execution. We evaluate the performance of MHD-AEPIC compared to MHD-EPIC and the scaling properties of the model to large number of computational cores.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2021

What Sustained Multi-Disciplinary Research Can Achieve: The Space Weather Modeling Framework

MHD-based global space weather models have mostly been developed and maintained at academic institutions. While the "free spirit" approach of academia enables the rapid emergence and testing of new ideas and methods, the lack of long-term stability and support makes this arrangement very challenging. This paper describes a successful example of a university-based group, the Center of Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan, that developed and maintained the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and its core element, the BATS-R-US extended MHD code. It took a quarter of a century to develop this capability and reach its present level of maturity that makes it suitable for research use by the space physics community through the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as well as operational use by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

Interval Type Local Limit Theorems for Lattice Type Random Variables and Distributions

In this paper, we propose a new interpretation of local limit theorems for univariate and multivariate distributions on lattices. We show that - given a local limit theorem in the standard sense - the distributions are approximated well by the limit distribution, uniformly on intervals of possibly decaying length. We identify the maximally allowable decay speed of the interval lengths. Further, we show that for continuous distributions, the interval type local law holds without any decay speed restrictions on the interval lengths. We show that various examples fit within this framework, such as standardized sums of i.i.d. random vectors or correlated random vectors induced by multidimensional spin models from statistical mechanics.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Local Central Limit Theorem for Multi-Group Curie-Weiss Models

We define a multi-group version of the mean-field spin model, also called Curie-Weiss model. It is known that, in the high temperature regime of this model, a central limit theorem holds for the vector of suitably scaled group magnetisations, that is the sum of spins belonging to each group. In this article, we prove a local central limit theorem for the group magnetisations in the high temperature regime.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Kinetic Modeling of Magnetospheres

This paper presents the state of the art of kinetic modeling techniques for simulating plasma kinetic dynamics in magnetospheres. We describe the critical numerical techniques for enabling large-scale kinetic simulations of magnetospheres: parameter scaling, implicit Particle-in-Cell schemes, and fluid-kinetic coupling. We show an application of these techniques to study particle acceleration and heating in asymmetric magnetic reconnection in the Ganymede magnetosphere.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

The Solar-wind with Hydrogen Ion Exchange and Large-scale Dynamics (SHIELD) model: A Self-Consistent Kinetic-MHD Model of the Outer Heliosphere

Neutral hydrogen has been shown to greatly impact the plasma flow in the heliopshere and the location of the heliospheric boundaries. We present the results of the Solar-wind with Hydrogen Ion Exchange and Large-scale Dynamics (SHIELD) model, a new, self-consistent, kinetic-MHD model of the outer heliosphere within the Space Weather Modeling Framework. The charge-exchange mean free path is on order of the size of the heliosphere; therefore, the neutral atoms cannot be described as a fluid. The SHIELD model couples the MHD solution for a single plasma fluid to the kinetic solution from for neutral hydrogen atoms streaming through the system. The kinetic code is based on the Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS), a Monte Carlo method for solving the Boltzmann equation. The SHIELD model accurately predicts the increased filtration of interstellar neutrals into the heliosphere. In order to verify the correct implementation within the model, we compare the results of the SHIELD model to other, well-established kinetic-MHD models. The SHIELD model matches the neutral hydrogen solution of these studies as well as the shift in all heliospheric boundaries closer to the Sun in comparison the the multi-fluid treatment of the neutral hydrogen atoms. Overall the SHIELD model shows excellent agreement to these models and is a significant improvement to the fluid treatment of interstellar hydrogen.

physics.space-ph↗