arXiv subjects

Gabor Toth

Publications and source records attributed to Gabor Toth.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Predicting solar flares with machine learning: investigating solar cycle dependence

A deep learning network, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, is used in this work to predict whether the maximum flare class an active region (AR) will produce in the next 24 hours is class $Γ$. We considered $Γ$ are $\ge M$, $\ge C$ and any flare class. The essence of using LSTM, which is a recurrent neural network, is its capability to capture temporal information of the data samples. The input features are time sequences of 20 magnetic parameters from SHARPs - Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches. We analyzed active regions from June 2010 to Dec 2018, using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) X-ray flare catalogs and label the data samples with identified ARs in the GOES X-ray flare catalogs. Our results (i) shows consistent skill scores with recently published results using LSTMs and better than the previous work using single time input (eg. DeFN) (ii) The skill scores from the model show essential differences when different years of data was chosen for training and testing.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Magnetohydrodynamic with embedded particle-in-cell simulation of the Geospace Environment Modeling dayside kinetic processes challenge event

We use the MHD with embedded particle-in-cell model (MHD-EPIC) to study the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) dayside kinetic processes challenge event at 01:50-03:00 UT on 2015-11-18, when the magnetosphere was driven by a steady southward IMF. In the MHD-EPIC simulation, the dayside magnetopause is covered by a PIC code so that the dayside reconnection is properly handled. We compare the magnetic fields and the plasma profiles of the magnetopause crossing with the MMS3 spacecraft observations. Most variables match the observations well in the magnetosphere, in the magnetosheath, and also during the current sheet crossing. The MHD-EPIC simulation produces flux ropes, and we demonstrate that some magnetic field and plasma features observed by the MMS3 spacecraft can be reproduced by a flux rope crossing event. We use an algorithm to automatically identify the reconnection sites from the simulation results. It turns out that there are usually multiple X-lines at the magnetopause. By tracing the locations of the X-lines, we find the typical moving speed of the X-line endpoints is about 70~km/s, which is higher than but still comparable with the ground-based observations.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

The Surface Distributions of the Production of the Major Volatile Species, H2O, CO2, CO and O2, from the Nucleus of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko throughout the Rosetta Mission as Measured by the ROSINA Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer

The Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis (ROSINA) suite of instruments operated throughout the over two years of the Rosetta mission operations in the vicinity of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. It measured gas densities and composition throughout the comet's atmosphere, or coma. Here we present two-years' worth of measurements of the relative densities of the four major volatile species in the coma of the comet, H2O. CO2, CO and O2, by one of the ROSINA sub-systems called the Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer (DFMS). The absolute total gas densities were provided by the Comet Pressure Sensor (COPS), another ROSINA sub-system. DFMS is a very high mass resolution and high sensitivity mass spectrometer able to resolve at a tiny fraction of an atomic mass unit. We have analyzed the combined DFMS and COPS measurements using an inversion scheme based on spherical harmonics that solves for the distribution of potential surface activity of each species as the comet rotates, changing solar illumination, over short intervals and as the comet changes distance from the sun and orientation of its spin axis over long time intervals. We also use the surface boundary conditions derived from the inversion scheme to simulate the whole coma with our fully kinetic Direct Simulation Monte Carlo model and calculate the production rates of the four major species throughout the mission. We compare the derived production rates with revised remote sensing observations by the Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer (VIRTIS) as well as with published observations from the Microwave Instrument for the Rosetta Orbiter (MIRO). Finally we use the variation of the surface production of the major species to calculate the total mass loss over the mission and, for different estimates of the dust/gas ratio, calculate the variation of surface loss over the nucleus.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Two Groups in a Curie-Weiss Model with Heterogeneous Coupling

We discuss a Curie-Weiss model with two groups with different coupling constants within and between groups. For the total magnetisations in each group, we show bivariate laws of large numbers and a central limit theorem which is valid in the high temperature regime. In the critical regime, the total magnetisation normalised by $N^{3/4}$ converges to a non-trivial distribution which is not Gaussian, just as in the single-group Curie-Weiss model. Finally, we prove a kind of a `law of large numbers' in the low temperature regime, more precisely we prove that the empirical magnetisation converges in distribution to a mixture of two Dirac measures.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Identifying Solar Flare Precursors Using Time Series of SDO/HMI Images and SHARP Parameters

We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), to prepare inputs for machine learning algorithms. Two classification models are presented: classification of flares from quiet times for active regions and classification of strong versus weak flare events. We adopt deep learning algorithms to capture both the spatial and temporal information from HMI magnetogram data. Effective feature extraction and feature selection with raw magnetogram data using deep learning and statistical algorithms enable us to train classification models to achieve almost as good performance as using active region parameters provided in HMI/Space-Weather HMI-Active Region Patch (SHARP) data files. Case studies show a significant increase in the prediction score around 20 hours before strong solar flare events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Studying dawn-dusk asymmetries of Mercury's magnetotail using MHD-EPIC simulations

MESSENGER has observed a lot of dawn-dusk asymmetries in Mercury's magnetotail, such as the asymmetries of the cross-tail current sheet thickness and the occurrence of flux ropes, dipolarization events and energetic electron injections. In order to obtain a global pictures of Mercury's magnetotail dynamics and the relationship between these asymmetries, we perform global simulations with the magnetohydrodynamics with embedded particle-in-cell (MHD-EPIC) model, where Mercury's magnetotail region is covered by a PIC code. Our simulations show that the dawnside current sheet is thicker, the plasma density is larger, and the electron pressure is higher than the duskside. Under a strong IMF driver, the simulated reconnection sites prefer the dawnside. We also found the dipolarization events and the planetward electron jets are moving dawnward while they are moving towards the planet, so that almost all dipolarization events and high-speed plasma flows concentrate in the dawn sector. The simulation results are consistent with MESSENGER observations.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

A Six-moment Multi-fluid Plasma Model

We present a six-moment multi-fluid model, which solves the governing equations for both ions and electrons, with pressure anisotropy along and perpendicular to the magnetic field direction, as well as the complete set of Maxwell equations. This set of equations includes the Hall effect, different temperatures for different species and pressure anisotropy. It is more comprehensive than the five-moment equations with isotropic pressures and significantly less expensive than the ten-moment equations with a full pressure tensors. Similarly to the five- and ten-moment equations, the wave speeds are naturally limited by the speed of light, which eliminates the issue of unlimited whistler wave speeds present in Hall magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). It is also possible to simulate multiple negatively charged fluids, which cannot be done in MHD models. The six-moment model is a reasonable description of the plasma outside magnetic reconnection regions and therefore well-suited to be coupled with an embedded particle-in-cell model that covers the reconnection region. Our numerical implementation uses a point-implicit scheme for the stiff source terms, and we use a second-order accurate Rusanov-type scheme with carefully selected wave speeds. For the plasma variables and the magnetic field the maximum wave speed is based on the fast magnetosonic speed of MHD with anisotropic pressures that we derive. For the electric field related variables the speed of light is used. The divergence of the magnetic field and Gauss's law are controlled with a hyperbolic-parabolic scheme. We present a number of numerical tests to demonstrate that this numerical model is robust without being excessively diffusive.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2019

A Predicted Small and Round Heliosphere

The shape of the solar wind bubble within the interstellar medium, the so-called heliosphere, has been explored over six decades. As the Sun moves through the surrounding partially-ionized medium, neutral hydrogen atoms penetrate the heliosphere, and through charge-exchange with the supersonic solar wind, create a population of hot pick-up ions (PUIs). The Termination Shock (TS) crossing by Voyager 2 (V2) data demonstrated that the heliosheath (HS) (the region of shocked solar wind) pressure is dominated by suprathermal particles. Here we use a novel magnetohydrodynamic model that treats the freshly ionized PUIs as a separate fluid from the thermal component of the solar wind. Unlike previous models, the new model reproduces the properties of the PUIs and solar wind ions based on the New Horizon and V2 spacecraft observations. The PUIs charge exchange with the cold neutral H atoms of the ISM in the HS and are quickly depleted. The depletion of PUIs cools the heliosphere downstream of the TS, "deflating" it and leading to a narrower HS and a smaller and rounder shape, in agreement with energetic neutral atom observations by the Cassini spacecraft. The new model, with interstellar magnetic field orientation constrained by the IBEX ribbon, reproduces the magnetic field data outside the HP at Voyager 1(V1). We present the predictions for the magnetic field outside the HP at V2.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Roadmap for Reliable Ensemble Forecasting of the Sun-Earth System

The authors of this report met on 28-30 March 2018 at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, New Jersey, for a 3-day workshop that brought together a group of data providers, expert modelers, and computer and data scientists, in the solar discipline. Their objective was to identify challenges in the path towards building an effective framework to achieve transformative advances in the understanding and forecasting of the Sun-Earth system from the upper convection zone of the Sun to the Earth's magnetosphere. The workshop aimed to develop a research roadmap that targets the scientific challenge of coupling observations and modeling with emerging data-science research to extract knowledge from the large volumes of data (observed and simulated) while stimulating computer science with new research applications. The desire among the attendees was to promote future trans-disciplinary collaborations and identify areas of convergence across disciplines. The workshop combined a set of plenary sessions featuring invited introductory talks and workshop progress reports, interleaved with a set of breakout sessions focused on specific topics of interest. Each breakout group generated short documents, listing the challenges identified during their discussions in addition to possible ways of attacking them collectively. These documents were combined into this report-wherein a list of prioritized activities have been collated, shared and endorsed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Two Groups in a Curie-Weiss Model

We show for two disjoint groups of spins in a Curie-Weiss model and a homogeneous coupling matrix that the law of large numbers holds for the normed sums of both groups' spin variables. We also show that the central limit theorem holds only for low inverse temperatures.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Gauss's Law Satisfying Energy-Conserving Semi-Implicit Particle-in-Cell Method

The Energy Conserving Semi-Implicit Method (ECSIM) introduced by Lapenta (2017) has many advantageous properties compared to the classical semi-implicit and explicit PIC methods. Most importantly, energy conservation eliminates the growth of the finite grid instability. We have implemented ECSIM in a different and more efficient manner than the original approach. More importantly, we have addressed two major shortcomings of the original ECSIM algorithm: there is no mechanism to enforce Gauss's law and there is no mechanism to reduce the numerical oscillations of the electric field. A classical approach to satisfy Gauss's law is to modify the electric field and its divergence using either an elliptic or a parabolic/hyperbolic correction based on the Generalized Lagrange Multiplier method. This correction, however, violates the energy conservation property, and the oscillations related to the finite grid instability reappear in the modified ECSIM scheme. We invented a new alternative approach: the particle positions are modified instead of the electric field in the correction step. Displacing the particles slightly does not change the energy conservation property, while it can satisfy Gauss's law by changing the charge density. We found that the new Gauss's Law satisfying Energy Conserving Semi-Implicit Method (GL-ECSIM) produces superior results compared to the original ECSIM algorithm. In some simulations, however, there are still some numerical oscillations present in the electric field. We attribute this to the simple finite difference discretization of the energy conserving implicit electric field solver. We modified the spatial discretization of the field solver to reduce these oscillations while only slightly violating the energy conservation properties. We demonstrate the improved quality of the GL-ECSIM method with several tests.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2018

Solar wind interaction with the Martian upper atmosphere: Roles of the cold thermosphere and hot oxygen corona

We study roles of the thermosphere and exosphere on the Martian ionospheric structure and ion escape rates in the process of the solar wind-Mars interaction. We employ a four-species multifluid MHD (MF-MHD) model to simulate the Martian ionosphere and magnetosphere. The $cold$ thermosphere background is taken from the Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (M-GITM) and the $hot$ oxygen exosphere is adopted from the Mars exosphere Monte Carlo model - Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS). A total of four cases with the combination of 1D (globally averaged) and 3D thermospheres and exospheres are studied. The ion escape rates calculated by adopting 1D and 3D atmospheres are similar; however, the latter are required to adequately reproduce MAVEN ionospheric observations. In addition, our simulations show that the 3D hot oxygen corona plays an important role in preventing planetary molecular ions (O$_2^+$ and CO$_2^+$) escaping from Mars, mainly resulting from the mass loading of the high-altitude exospheric O$^+$ ions. The $cold$ thermospheric oxygen atom, however, is demonstrated to be the primary neutral source for O$^+$ ion escape during the relatively weak solar cycle 24.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

Modeling Martian Atmospheric Losses over Time: Implications for Exoplanetary Climate Evolution and Habitability

In this Letter, we make use of sophisticated 3D numerical simulations to assess the extent of atmospheric ion and photochemical losses from Mars over time. We demonstrate that the atmospheric ion escape rates were significantly higher (by more than two orders of magnitude) in the past at $\sim 4$ Ga compared to the present-day value owing to the stronger solar wind and higher ultraviolet fluxes from the young Sun. We found that the photochemical loss of atomic hot oxygen dominates over the total ion loss at the current epoch whilst the atmospheric ion loss is likely much more important at ancient times. We briefly discuss the ensuing implications of high atmospheric ion escape rates in the context of ancient Mars, and exoplanets with similar atmospheric compositions around young solar-type stars and M-dwarfs.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Global three-dimensional simulation of Earth's dayside reconnection using a two-way coupled magnetohydrodynamics with embedded particle-in-cell model: initial results

We perform a three-dimensional (3D) global simulation of Earth's magnetosphere with kinetic reconnection physics to study the flux transfer events (FTEs) and dayside magnetic reconnection with the recently developed magnetohydrodynamics with embedded particle-in-cell model (MHD-EPIC). During the one-hour long simulation, the FTEs are generated quasi-periodically near the subsolar point and move toward the poles. We find the magnetic field signature of FTEs at their early formation stage is similar to a `crater FTE', which is characterized by a magnetic field strength dip at the FTE center. After the FTE core field grows to a significant value, it becomes an FTE with typical flux rope structure. When an FTE moves across the cusp, reconnection between the FTE field lines and the cusp field lines can dissipate the FTE. The kinetic features are also captured by our model. A crescent electron phase space distribution is found near the reconnection site. A similar distribution is found for ions at the location where the Larmor electric field appears. The lower hybrid drift instability (LHDI) along the current sheet direction also arises at the interface of magnetosheath and magnetosphere plasma. The LHDI electric field is about 8 mV/m and its dominant wavelength relative to the electron gyroradius agrees reasonably with MMS observations.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2014

An Efficient Second-Order Accurate and Continuous Interpolation for Block-Adaptive Grids

In this paper we present a second-order and continuous interpolation algorithm for cell-centered adaptive-mesh-refinement (AMR) grids. Continuity requirement poses a non-trivial problem at resolution changes. We develop a classification of the resolution changes, which allows us to employ efficient and simple linear interpolation in the majority of the computational domain. The benefit of such approach is higher efficiency. The algorithm is well suited for massively parallel computations. Our interpolation algorithm allows extracting jump-free interpolated data distribution along lines and surfaces within the computational domain. This capability is important for various applications, including kinetic particles tracking in three dimensional vector fields, visualization (i.e. surface extraction) and extracting variables along one-dimensional curves such as field lines, streamlines and satellite trajectories, etc. Particular examples of the latter are models for acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEPs) along magnetic field-lines. As such models are sensitive to sharp gradients and discontinuities the capability to interpolate the data from the AMR grid to be passed to the SEP model without producing false gradients numerically becomes crucial. The code implementation of our algorithm is publicly available as a Fortran 90 library.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2013

Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM): Coronal Heating

We present a new version of the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), a global model from the upper chromosphere to the corona and the heliosphere. The coronal heating and solar wind acceleration are addressed with low-frequency Alfven wave turbulence. The injection of Alfven wave energy at the inner boundary is such that the Poynting flux is proportional to the magnetic field strength. The three-dimensional magnetic field topology is simulated using data from photospheric magnetic field measurements. This model does not impose open-closed magnetic field boundaries; those develop self-consistently. The physics includes: (1) The model employs three different temperatures, namely the isotropic electron temperature and the parallel and perpendicular ion temperatures. The firehose, mirror, and ion-cyclotron instabilities due to the developing ion temperature anisotropy are accounted for. (2) The Alfven waves are partially reflected by the Alfven speed gradient and the vorticity along the field lines. The resulting counter-propagating waves are responsible for the nonlinear turbulent cascade. The balanced turbulence due to uncorrelated waves near the apex of the closed field lines and the resulting elevated temperatures are addressed. (3) To apportion the wave dissipation to the three temperatures, we employ the results of the theories of linear wave damping and nonlinear stochastic heating. (4) We have incorporated the collisional and collisionless electron heat conduction. We compare the simulated multi-wavelength EUV images of CR2107 with the observations from STEREO/EUVI and SDO/AIA instruments. We demonstrate that the reflection due to strong magnetic fields in proximity of active regions intensifies the dissipation and observable emission sufficiently.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Multi-ion, multi-fluid 3-D magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the outer heliosphere

Data from the Voyager probes and the Interstellar Boundary Explorer have revealed the importance of pick-up ions (PUIs) in understanding the character and behavior of the outer heliosphere, the region of interaction between the solar wind and the interstellar medium. In the outer heliosphere PUIs carry a large fraction of the thermal pressure, which effects the nature of the termination shock, and they are a dominate component of pressure in the heliosheath. This paper describes the development of a new multi-ion, multi-fluid 3-D magnetohydrodynamic model of the outer heliosphere. This model has the added capability of tracking the individual fluid properties of multiple ion populations. For this initial study two ion populations are modeled: the thermal solar wind ions and PUIs produced in the supersonic solar wind. The model also includes 4 neutral fluids that interact through charge-exchange with the ion fluids. The new multi-ion simulation reproduces the significant heating of PUIs at the termination shock, as inferred from Voyager observations, and provides properties of PUIs in the 3-D heliosheath. The thinning of the heliosheath due to the loss of thermal energy in the heliosheath from PUI and neutral interaction is also quantified. In future work the multi-ion, multi-fluid model will be used to simulate energetic neutral atom (ENA) maps for comparison with the Interstellar Boundary Explorer, particularly at PUI energies of less than 1 keV.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Obtaining Potential Field Solution with Spherical Harmonics and Finite Differences

Potential magnetic field solutions can be obtained based on the synoptic magnetograms of the Sun. Traditionally, a spherical harmonics decomposition of the magnetogram is used to construct the current and divergence free magnetic field solution. This method works reasonably well when the order of spherical harmonics is limited to be small relative to the resolution of the magnetogram, although some artifacts, such as ringing, can arise around sharp features. When the number of spherical harmonics is increased, however, using the raw magnetogram data given on a grid that is uniform in the sine of the latitude coordinate can result in inaccurate and unreliable results, especially in the polar regions close to the Sun. We discuss here two approaches that can mitigate or completely avoid these problems: i) Remeshing the magnetogram onto a grid with uniform resolution in latitude, and limiting the highest order of the spherical harmonics to the anti-alias limit; ii) Using an iterative finite difference algorithm to solve for the potential field. The naive and the improved numerical solutions are compared for actual magnetograms, and the differences are found to be rather dramatic. We made our new Finite Difference Iterative Potential-field Solver (FDIPS) a publically available code, so that other researchers can also use it as an alternative to the spherical harmonics approach.

astro-ph.SR↗