arXiv subjects

Garvesh Raskutti

Publications and source records attributed to Garvesh Raskutti.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

The bias of isotonic regression

We study the bias of the isotonic regression estimator. While there is extensive work characterizing the mean squared error of the isotonic regression estimator, relatively little is known about the bias. In this paper, we provide a sharp characterization, proving that the bias scales as $O(n^{-β/3})$ up to log factors, where $1 \leq β\leq 2$ is the exponent corresponding to H{ö}lder smoothness of the underlying mean. Importantly, this result only requires a strictly monotone mean and that the noise distribution has subexponential tails, without relying on symmetric noise or other restrictive assumptions.

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arXiv2019

Graph-based regularization for regression problems with alignment and highly-correlated designs

Sparse models for high-dimensional linear regression and machine learning have received substantial attention over the past two decades. Model selection, or determining which features or covariates are the best explanatory variables, is critical to the interpretability of a learned model. Much of the current literature assumes that covariates are only mildly correlated. However, in many modern applications covariates are highly correlated and do not exhibit key properties (such as the restricted eigenvalue condition, restricted isometry property, or other related assumptions). This work considers a high-dimensional regression setting in which a graph governs both correlations among the covariates and the similarity among regression coefficients -- meaning there is \emph{alignment} between the covariates and regression coefficients. Using side information about the strength of correlations among features, we form a graph with edge weights corresponding to pairwise covariances. This graph is used to define a graph total variation regularizer that promotes similar weights for correlated features. This work shows how the proposed graph-based regularization yields mean-squared error guarantees for a broad range of covariance graph structures. These guarantees are optimal for many specific covariance graphs, including block and lattice graphs. Our proposed approach outperforms other methods for highly-correlated design in a variety of experiments on synthetic data and real biochemistry data.

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arXiv2019

Learning directed acyclic graphs based on sparsest permutations

We consider the problem of learning a Bayesian network or directed acyclic graph (DAG) model from observational data. A number of constraint-based, score-based and hybrid algorithms have been developed for this purpose. For constraint-based methods, statistical consistency guarantees typically rely on the faithfulness assumption, which has been show to be restrictive especially for graphs with cycles in the skeleton. However, there is only limited work on consistency guarantees for score-based and hybrid algorithms and it has been unclear whether consistency guarantees can be proven under weaker conditions than the faithfulness assumption. In this paper, we propose the sparsest permutation (SP) algorithm. This algorithm is based on finding the causal ordering of the variables that yields the sparsest DAG. We prove that this new score-based method is consistent under strictly weaker conditions than the faithfulness assumption. We also demonstrate through simulations on small DAGs that the SP algorithm compares favorably to the constraint-based PC and SGS algorithms as well as the score-based Greedy Equivalence Search and hybrid Max-Min Hill-Climbing method. In the Gaussian setting, we prove that our algorithm boils down to finding the permutation of the variables with sparsest Cholesky decomposition for the inverse covariance matrix. Using this connection, we show that in the oracle setting, where the true covariance matrix is known, the SP algorithm is in fact equivalent to $\ell_0$-penalized maximum likelihood estimation.

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arXiv2019

Minimizing Negative Transfer of Knowledge in Multivariate Gaussian Processes: A Scalable and Regularized Approach

Recently there has been an increasing interest in the multivariate Gaussian process (MGP) which extends the Gaussian process (GP) to deal with multiple outputs. One approach to construct the MGP and account for non-trivial commonalities amongst outputs employs a convolution process (CP). The CP is based on the idea of sharing latent functions across several convolutions. Despite the elegance of the CP construction, it provides new challenges that need yet to be tackled. First, even with a moderate number of outputs, model building is extremely prohibitive due to the huge increase in computational demands and number of parameters to be estimated. Second, the negative transfer of knowledge may occur when some outputs do not share commonalities. In this paper we address these issues. We propose a regularized pairwise modeling approach for the MGP established using CP. The key feature of our approach is to distribute the estimation of the full multivariate model into a group of bivariate GPs which are individually built. Interestingly pairwise modeling turns out to possess unique characteristics, which allows us to tackle the challenge of negative transfer through penalizing the latent function that facilitates information sharing in each bivariate model. Predictions are then made through combining predictions from the bivariate models within a Bayesian framework. The proposed method has excellent scalability when the number of outputs is large and minimizes the negative transfer of knowledge between uncorrelated outputs. Statistical guarantees for the proposed method are studied and its advantageous features are demonstrated through numerical studies.

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arXiv2018

Testing for high-dimensional network parameters in auto-regressive models

High-dimensional auto-regressive models provide a natural way to model influence between $M$ actors given multi-variate time series data for $T$ time intervals. While there has been considerable work on network estimation, there is limited work in the context of inference and hypothesis testing. In particular, prior work on hypothesis testing in time series has been restricted to linear Gaussian auto-regressive models. From a practical perspective, it is important to determine suitable statistical tests for connections between actors that go beyond the Gaussian assumption. In the context of \emph{high-dimensional} time series models, confidence intervals present additional estimators since most estimators such as the Lasso and Dantzig selectors are biased which has led to \emph{de-biased} estimators. In this paper we address these challenges and provide convergence in distribution results and confidence intervals for the multi-variate AR(p) model with sub-Gaussian noise, a generalization of Gaussian noise that broadens applicability and presents numerous technical challenges. The main technical challenge lies in the fact that unlike Gaussian random vectors, for sub-Gaussian vectors zero correlation does not imply independence. The proof relies on using an intricate truncation argument to develop novel concentration bounds for quadratic forms of dependent sub-Gaussian random variables. Our convergence in distribution results hold provided $T = Ω((s \vee ρ)^2 \log^2 M)$, where $s$ and $ρ$ refer to sparsity parameters which matches existed results for hypothesis testing with i.i.d. samples. We validate our theoretical results with simulation results for both block-structured and chain-structured networks.

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arXiv2018

Estimating Network Structure from Incomplete Event Data

Multivariate Bernoulli autoregressive (BAR) processes model time series of events in which the likelihood of current events is determined by the times and locations of past events. These processes can be used to model nonlinear dynamical systems corresponding to criminal activity, responses of patients to different medical treatment plans, opinion dynamics across social networks, epidemic spread, and more. Past work examines this problem under the assumption that the event data is complete, but in many cases only a fraction of events are observed. Incomplete observations pose a significant challenge in this setting because the unobserved events still govern the underlying dynamical system. In this work, we develop a novel approach to estimating the parameters of a BAR process in the presence of unobserved events via an unbiased estimator of the complete data log-likelihood function. We propose a computationally efficient estimation algorithm which approximates this estimator via Taylor series truncation and establish theoretical results for both the statistical error and optimization error of our algorithm. We further justify our approach by testing our method on both simulated data and a real data set consisting of crimes recorded by the city of Chicago.

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arXiv2018

PULasso: High-dimensional variable selection with presence-only data

In various real-world problems, we are presented with classification problems with positive and unlabeled data, referred to as presence-only responses. In this paper, we study variable selection in the context of presence only responses where the number of features or covariates p is large. The combination of presence-only responses and high dimensionality presents both statistical and computational challenges. In this paper, we develop the PUlasso algorithm for variable selection and classification with positive and unlabeled responses. Our algorithm involves using the majorization-minimization (MM) framework which is a generalization of the well-known expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. In particular to make our algorithm scalable, we provide two computational speed-ups to the standard EM algorithm. We provide a theoretical guarantee where we first show that our algorithm converges to a stationary point, and then prove that any stationary point within a local neighborhood of the true parameter achieves the minimax optimal mean-squared error under both strict sparsity and group sparsity assumptions. We also demonstrate through simulations that our algorithm out-performs state-of-the-art algorithms in the moderate p settings in terms of classification performance. Finally, we demonstrate that our PUlasso algorithm performs well on a biochemistry example.

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arXiv2018

Network Estimation from Point Process Data

Consider observing a collection of discrete events within a network that reflect how network nodes influence one another. Such data are common in spike trains recorded from biological neural networks, interactions within a social network, and a variety of other settings. Data of this form may be modeled as self-exciting point processes, in which the likelihood of future events depends on the past events. This paper addresses the problem of estimating self-excitation parameters and inferring the underlying functional network structure from self-exciting point process data. Past work in this area was limited by strong assumptions which are addressed by the novel approach here. Specifically, in this paper we (1) incorporate saturation in a point process model which both ensures stability and models non-linear thresholding effects; (2) impose general low-dimensional structural assumptions that include sparsity, group sparsity and low-rankness that allows bounds to be developed in the high-dimensional setting; and (3) incorporate long-range memory effects through moving average and higher-order auto-regressive components. Using our general framework, we provide a number of novel theoretical guarantees for high-dimensional self-exciting point processes that reflect the role played by the underlying network structure and long-term memory. We also provide simulations and real data examples to support our methodology and main results.

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arXiv2018

Non-parametric Sparse Additive Auto-regressive Network Models

Consider a multi-variate time series $(X_t)_{t=0}^{T}$ where $X_t \in \mathbb{R}^d$ which may represent spike train responses for multiple neurons in a brain, crime event data across multiple regions, and many others. An important challenge associated with these time series models is to estimate an influence network between the $d$ variables, especially when the number of variables $d$ is large meaning we are in the high-dimensional setting. Prior work has focused on parametric vector auto-regressive models. However, parametric approaches are somewhat restrictive in practice. In this paper, we use the non-parametric sparse additive model (SpAM) framework to address this challenge. Using a combination of $β$ and $ϕ$-mixing properties of Markov chains and empirical process techniques for reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs), we provide upper bounds on mean-squared error in terms of the sparsity $s$, logarithm of the dimension $\log d$, number of time points $T$, and the smoothness of the RKHSs. Our rates are sharp up to logarithm factors in many cases. We also provide numerical experiments that support our theoretical results and display potential advantages of using our non-parametric SpAM framework for a Chicago crime dataset.

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arXiv2017

Minimax optimal convex methods for Poisson inverse problems under $\ell_q$-ball sparsity

In this paper, we study the minimax rates and provide an implementable convex algorithm for Poisson inverse problems under weak sparsity and physical constraints. In particular we assume the model $y_i \sim \mbox{Poisson}(Ta_i^{\top}f^*)$ for $1 \leq i \leq n$ where $T \in \mathbb{R}_+$ is the intensity, and we impose weak sparsity on $f^* \in \mathbb{R}^p$ by assuming $f^*$ lies in an $\ell_q$-ball when rotated according to an orthonormal basis $D \in \mathbb{R}^{p \times p}$. In addition, since we are modeling real physical systems we also impose positivity and flux-preserving constraints on the matrix $A = [a_1, a_2,...,a_n]^{\top}$ and the function $f^*$. We prove minimax lower bounds for this model which scale as $R_q (\frac{\log p}{T})^{1 - q/2}$ where it is noticeable that the rate depends on the intensity $T$ and not the sample size $n$. We also show that a $\ell_1$-based regularized least-squares estimator achieves this minimax lower bound, provided a suitable restricted eigenvalue condition is satisfied. Finally we prove that provided $n \geq \tilde{K} \log p$ where $\tilde{K} = O(R_q (\frac{\log p}{T})^{- q/2})$ represents an approximate sparsity level, our restricted eigenvalue condition and physical constraints are satisfied for random bounded ensembles. We also provide numerical experiments that validate our mean-squared error bounds. Our results address a number of open issues from prior work on Poisson inverse problems that focuses on strictly sparse models and does not provide guarantees for convex implementable algorithms.

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arXiv2017

Inference of High-dimensional Autoregressive Generalized Linear Models

Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector could correspond to a different node in a network, and the parameters of an autoregressive model would correspond to the impact of the network structure on the time series evolution. Often these models are used successfully in practice to learn the structure of social, epidemiological, financial, or biological neural networks. However, little is known about statistical guarantees on estimates of such models in non-Gaussian settings. This paper addresses the inference of the autoregressive parameters and associated network structure within a generalized linear model framework that includes Poisson and Bernoulli autoregressive processes. At the heart of this analysis is a sparsity-regularized maximum likelihood estimator. While sparsity-regularization is well-studied in the statistics and machine learning communities, those analysis methods cannot be applied to autoregressive generalized linear models because of the correlations and potential heteroscedasticity inherent in the observations. Sample complexity bounds are derived using a combination of martingale concentration inequalities and modern empirical process techniques for dependent random variables. These bounds, which are supported by several simulation studies, characterize the impact of various network parameters on estimator performance.

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arXiv2017

Learning Quadratic Variance Function (QVF) DAG models via OverDispersion Scoring (ODS)

Learning DAG or Bayesian network models is an important problem in multi-variate causal inference. However, a number of challenges arises in learning large-scale DAG models including model identifiability and computational complexity since the space of directed graphs is huge. In this paper, we address these issues in a number of steps for a broad class of DAG models where the noise or variance is signal-dependent. Firstly we introduce a new class of identifiable DAG models, where each node has a distribution where the variance is a quadratic function of the mean (QVF DAG models). Our QVF DAG models include many interesting classes of distributions such as Poisson, Binomial, Geometric, Exponential, Gamma and many other distributions in which the noise variance depends on the mean. We prove that this class of QVF DAG models is identifiable, and introduce a new algorithm, the OverDispersion Scoring (ODS) algorithm, for learning large-scale QVF DAG models. Our algorithm is based on firstly learning the moralized or undirected graphical model representation of the DAG to reduce the DAG search-space, and then exploiting the quadratic variance property to learn the causal ordering. We show through theoretical results and simulations that our algorithm is statistically consistent in the high-dimensional p>n setting provided that the degree of the moralized graph is bounded and performs well compared to state-of-the-art DAG-learning algorithms.

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arXiv2017

Convex Regularization for High-Dimensional Multi-Response Tensor Regression

In this paper we present a general convex optimization approach for solving high-dimensional multiple response tensor regression problems under low-dimensional structural assumptions. We consider using convex and weakly decomposable regularizers assuming that the underlying tensor lies in an unknown low-dimensional subspace. Within our framework, we derive general risk bounds of the resulting estimate under fairly general dependence structure among covariates. Our framework leads to upper bounds in terms of two very simple quantities, the \emph{Gaussian width} of a convex set in tensor space and the \emph{intrinsic dimension} of the low-dimensional tensor subspace. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first general framework that applies to multiple response problems. These general bounds provide useful upper bounds on rates of convergence for a number of fundamental statistical models of interest including multi-response regression, vector auto-regressive models, low-rank tensor models and pairwise interaction models. Moreover, in many of these settings we prove that the resulting estimates are minimax optimal. We also provide a numerical study that both validates our theoretical guarantees and demonstrates the breadth of our framework.

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arXiv2016

Non-Convex Projected Gradient Descent for Generalized Low-Rank Tensor Regression

In this paper, we consider the problem of learning high-dimensional tensor regression problems with low-rank structure. One of the core challenges associated with learning high-dimensional models is computation since the underlying optimization problems are often non-convex. While convex relaxations could lead to polynomial-time algorithms they are often slow in practice. On the other hand, limited theoretical guarantees exist for non-convex methods. In this paper we provide a general framework that provides theoretical guarantees for learning high-dimensional tensor regression models under different low-rank structural assumptions using the projected gradient descent algorithm applied to a potentially non-convex constraint set $Θ$ in terms of its \emph{localized Gaussian width}. We juxtapose our theoretical results for non-convex projected gradient descent algorithms with previous results on regularized convex approaches. The two main differences between the convex and non-convex approach are: (i) from a computational perspective whether the non-convex projection operator is computable and whether the projection has desirable contraction properties and (ii) from a statistical upper bound perspective, the non-convex approach has a superior rate for a number of examples. We provide three concrete examples of low-dimensional structure which address these issues and explain the pros and cons for the non-convex and convex approaches. We supplement our theoretical results with simulations which show that, under several common settings of generalized low rank tensor regression, the projected gradient descent approach is superior both in terms of statistical error and run-time provided the step-sizes of the projected descent algorithm are suitably chosen.

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arXiv2016

Identifiability Assumptions and Algorithm for Directed Graphical Models with Feedback

Directed graphical models provide a useful framework for modeling causal or directional relationships for multivariate data. Prior work has largely focused on identifiability and search algorithms for directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models. In many applications, feedback naturally arises and directed graphical models that permit cycles occur. In this paper we address the issue of identifiability for general directed cyclic graphical (DCG) models satisfying the Markov assumption. In particular, in addition to the faithfulness assumption which has already been introduced for cyclic models, we introduce two new identifiability assumptions, one based on selecting the model with the fewest edges and the other based on selecting the DCG model that entails the maximum number of d-separation rules. We provide theoretical results comparing these assumptions which show that: (1) selecting models with the largest number of d-separation rules is strictly weaker than the faithfulness assumption; (2) unlike for DAG models, selecting models with the fewest edges does not necessarily result in a milder assumption than the faithfulness assumption. We also provide connections between our two new principles and minimality assumptions. We use our identifiability assumptions to develop search algorithms for small-scale DCG models. Our simulation study supports our theoretical results, showing that the algorithms based on our two new principles generally out-perform algorithms based on the faithfulness assumption in terms of selecting the true skeleton for DCG models.

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arXiv2015

A Statistical Perspective on Randomized Sketching for Ordinary Least-Squares

We consider statistical as well as algorithmic aspects of solving large-scale least-squares (LS) problems using randomized sketching algorithms. For a LS problem with input data $(X, Y) \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times p} \times \mathbb{R}^n$, sketching algorithms use a sketching matrix, $S\in\mathbb{R}^{r \times n}$ with $r \ll n$. Then, rather than solving the LS problem using the full data $(X,Y)$, sketching algorithms solve the LS problem using only the sketched data $(SX, SY)$. Prior work has typically adopted an algorithmic perspective, in that it has made no statistical assumptions on the input $X$ and $Y$, and instead it has been assumed that the data $(X,Y)$ are fixed and worst-case (WC). Prior results show that, when using sketching matrices such as random projections and leverage-score sampling algorithms, with $p < r \ll n$, the WC error is the same as solving the original problem, up to a small constant. From a statistical perspective, we typically consider the mean-squared error performance of randomized sketching algorithms, when data $(X, Y)$ are generated according to a statistical model $Y = X β+ ε$, where $ε$ is a noise process. We provide a rigorous comparison of both perspectives leading to insights on how they differ. To do this, we first develop a framework for assessing algorithmic and statistical aspects of randomized sketching methods. We then consider the statistical prediction efficiency (PE) and the statistical residual efficiency (RE) of the sketched LS estimator; and we use our framework to provide upper bounds for several types of random projection and random sampling sketching algorithms. Among other results, we show that the RE can be upper bounded when $p < r \ll n$ while the PE typically requires the sample size $r$ to be substantially larger. Lower bounds developed in subsequent results show that our upper bounds on PE can not be improved.

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arXiv2015

Statistical and Algorithmic Perspectives on Randomized Sketching for Ordinary Least-Squares -- ICML

We consider statistical and algorithmic aspects of solving large-scale least-squares (LS) problems using randomized sketching algorithms. Prior results show that, from an \emph{algorithmic perspective}, when using sketching matrices constructed from random projections and leverage-score sampling, if the number of samples $r$ much smaller than the original sample size $n$, then the worst-case (WC) error is the same as solving the original problem, up to a very small relative error. From a \emph{statistical perspective}, one typically considers the mean-squared error performance of randomized sketching algorithms, when data are generated according to a statistical linear model. In this paper, we provide a rigorous comparison of both perspectives leading to insights on how they differ. To do this, we first develop a framework for assessing, in a unified manner, algorithmic and statistical aspects of randomized sketching methods. We then consider the statistical prediction efficiency (PE) and the statistical residual efficiency (RE) of the sketched LS estimator; and we use our framework to provide upper bounds for several types of random projection and random sampling algorithms. Among other results, we show that the RE can be upper bounded when $r$ is much smaller than $n$, while the PE typically requires the number of samples $r$ to be substantially larger. Lower bounds developed in subsequent work show that our upper bounds on PE can not be improved.

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arXiv2014

The Information Geometry of Mirror Descent

Information geometry applies concepts in differential geometry to probability and statistics and is especially useful for parameter estimation in exponential families where parameters are known to lie on a Riemannian manifold. Connections between the geometric properties of the induced manifold and statistical properties of the estimation problem are well-established. However developing first-order methods that scale to larger problems has been less of a focus in the information geometry community. The best known algorithm that incorporates manifold structure is the second-order natural gradient descent algorithm introduced by Amari. On the other hand, stochastic approximation methods have led to the development of first-order methods for optimizing noisy objective functions. A recent generalization of the Robbins-Monro algorithm known as mirror descent, developed by Nemirovski and Yudin is a first order method that induces non-Euclidean geometries. However current analysis of mirror descent does not precisely characterize the induced non-Euclidean geometry nor does it consider performance in terms of statistical relative efficiency. In this paper, we prove that mirror descent induced by Bregman divergences is equivalent to the natural gradient descent algorithm on the dual Riemannian manifold. Using this equivalence, it follows that (1) mirror descent is the steepest descent direction along the Riemannian manifold of the exponential family; (2) mirror descent with log-likelihood loss applied to parameter estimation in exponential families asymptotically achieves the classical Cramér-Rao lower bound and (3) natural gradient descent for manifolds corresponding to exponential families can be implemented as a first-order method through mirror descent.

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