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Geoffrey I. Webb

Publications and source records attributed to Geoffrey I. Webb.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2024

Deep Learning for Time Series Anomaly Detection: A Survey

Time series anomaly detection has applications in a wide range of research fields and applications, including manufacturing and healthcare. The presence of anomalies can indicate novel or unexpected events, such as production faults, system defects, or heart fluttering, and is therefore of particular interest. The large size and complex patterns of time series have led researchers to develop specialised deep learning models for detecting anomalous patterns. This survey focuses on providing structured and comprehensive state-of-the-art time series anomaly detection models through the use of deep learning. It providing a taxonomy based on the factors that divide anomaly detection models into different categories. Aside from describing the basic anomaly detection technique for each category, the advantages and limitations are also discussed. Furthermore, this study includes examples of deep anomaly detection in time series across various application domains in recent years. It finally summarises open issues in research and challenges faced while adopting deep anomaly detection models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Deep Learning for Satellite Image Time Series Analysis: A Review

Earth observation (EO) satellite missions have been providing detailed images about the state of the Earth and its land cover for over 50 years. Long term missions, such as NASA's Landsat, Terra, and Aqua satellites, and more recently, the ESA's Sentinel missions, record images of the entire world every few days. Although single images provide point-in-time data, repeated images of the same area, or satellite image time series (SITS) provide information about the changing state of vegetation and land use. These SITS are useful for modeling dynamic processes and seasonal changes such as plant phenology. They have potential benefits for many aspects of land and natural resource management, including applications in agricultural, forest, water, and disaster management, urban planning, and mining. However, the resulting satellite image time series (SITS) are complex, incorporating information from the temporal, spatial, and spectral dimensions. Therefore, deep learning methods are often deployed as they can analyze these complex relationships. This review presents a summary of the state-of-the-art methods of modelling environmental, agricultural, and other Earth observation variables from SITS data using deep learning methods. We aim to provide a resource for remote sensing experts interested in using deep learning techniques to enhance Earth observation models with temporal information.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2023

Deep Learning for Time Series Classification and Extrinsic Regression: A Current Survey

Time Series Classification and Extrinsic Regression are important and challenging machine learning tasks. Deep learning has revolutionized natural language processing and computer vision and holds great promise in other fields such as time series analysis where the relevant features must often be abstracted from the raw data but are not known a priori. This paper surveys the current state of the art in the fast-moving field of deep learning for time series classification and extrinsic regression. We review different network architectures and training methods used for these tasks and discuss the challenges and opportunities when applying deep learning to time series data. We also summarize two critical applications of time series classification and extrinsic regression, human activity recognition and satellite earth observation.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Series2Vec: Similarity-based Self-supervised Representation Learning for Time Series Classification

We argue that time series analysis is fundamentally different in nature to either vision or natural language processing with respect to the forms of meaningful self-supervised learning tasks that can be defined. Motivated by this insight, we introduce a novel approach called \textit{Series2Vec} for self-supervised representation learning. Unlike other self-supervised methods in time series, which carry the risk of positive sample variants being less similar to the anchor sample than series in the negative set, Series2Vec is trained to predict the similarity between two series in both temporal and spectral domains through a self-supervised task. Series2Vec relies primarily on the consistency of the unsupervised similarity step, rather than the intrinsic quality of the similarity measurement, without the need for hand-crafted data augmentation. To further enforce the network to learn similar representations for similar time series, we propose a novel approach that applies order-invariant attention to each representation within the batch during training. Our evaluation of Series2Vec on nine large real-world datasets, along with the UCR/UEA archive, shows enhanced performance compared to current state-of-the-art self-supervised techniques for time series. Additionally, our extensive experiments show that Series2Vec performs comparably with fully supervised training and offers high efficiency in datasets with limited-labeled data. Finally, we show that the fusion of Series2Vec with other representation learning models leads to enhanced performance for time series classification. Code and models are open-source at \url{https://github.com/Navidfoumani/Series2Vec.}

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

An Accurate and Fully-Automated Ensemble Model for Weekly Time Series Forecasting

Many businesses and industries require accurate forecasts for weekly time series nowadays. However, the forecasting literature does not currently provide easy-to-use, automatic, reproducible and accurate approaches dedicated to this task. We propose a forecasting method in this domain to fill this gap, leveraging state-of-the-art forecasting techniques, such as forecast combination, meta-learning, and global modelling. We consider different meta-learning architectures, algorithms, and base model pools. Based on all considered model variants, we propose to use a stacking approach with lasso regression which optimally combines the forecasts of four base models: a global Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN), Theta, Trigonometric Box-Cox ARMA Trend Seasonal (TBATS) and Dynamic Harmonic Regression ARIMA (DHR-ARIMA), as it shows the overall best performance across seven experimental weekly datasets on four evaluation metrics. Our proposed method also consistently outperforms a set of benchmarks and state-of-the-art weekly forecasting models by a considerable margin with statistical significance. Our method can produce the most accurate forecasts, in terms of mean sMAPE, for the M4 weekly dataset among all benchmarks and all original competition participants.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Computing Marginal and Conditional Divergences between Decomposable Models with Applications

The ability to compute the exact divergence between two high-dimensional distributions is useful in many applications but doing so naively is intractable. Computing the alpha-beta divergence -- a family of divergences that includes the Kullback-Leibler divergence and Hellinger distance -- between the joint distribution of two decomposable models, i.e chordal Markov networks, can be done in time exponential in the treewidth of these models. However, reducing the dissimilarity between two high-dimensional objects to a single scalar value can be uninformative. Furthermore, in applications such as supervised learning, the divergence over a conditional distribution might be of more interest. Therefore, we propose an approach to compute the exact alpha-beta divergence between any marginal or conditional distribution of two decomposable models. Doing so tractably is non-trivial as we need to decompose the divergence between these distributions and therefore, require a decomposition over the marginal and conditional distributions of these models. Consequently, we provide such a decomposition and also extend existing work to compute the marginal and conditional alpha-beta divergence between these decompositions. We then show how our method can be used to analyze distributional changes by first applying it to a benchmark image dataset. Finally, based on our framework, we propose a novel way to quantify the error in contemporary superconducting quantum computers. Code for all experiments is available at: https://lklee.dev/pub/2023-icdm/code

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Large Language Models for Scientific Synthesis, Inference and Explanation

Large language models are a form of artificial intelligence systems whose primary knowledge consists of the statistical patterns, semantic relationships, and syntactical structures of language1. Despite their limited forms of "knowledge", these systems are adept at numerous complex tasks including creative writing, storytelling, translation, question-answering, summarization, and computer code generation. However, they have yet to demonstrate advanced applications in natural science. Here we show how large language models can perform scientific synthesis, inference, and explanation. We present a method for using general-purpose large language models to make inferences from scientific datasets of the form usually associated with special-purpose machine learning algorithms. We show that the large language model can augment this "knowledge" by synthesizing from the scientific literature. When a conventional machine learning system is augmented with this synthesized and inferred knowledge it can outperform the current state of the art across a range of benchmark tasks for predicting molecular properties. This approach has the further advantage that the large language model can explain the machine learning system's predictions. We anticipate that our framework will open new avenues for AI to accelerate the pace of scientific discovery.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2023

ShapeDBA: Generating Effective Time Series Prototypes using ShapeDTW Barycenter Averaging

Time series data can be found in almost every domain, ranging from the medical field to manufacturing and wireless communication. Generating realistic and useful exemplars and prototypes is a fundamental data analysis task. In this paper, we investigate a novel approach to generating realistic and useful exemplars and prototypes for time series data. Our approach uses a new form of time series average, the ShapeDTW Barycentric Average. We therefore turn our attention to accurately generating time series prototypes with a novel approach. The existing time series prototyping approaches rely on the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) similarity measure such as DTW Barycentering Average (DBA) and SoftDBA. These last approaches suffer from a common problem of generating out-of-distribution artifacts in their prototypes. This is mostly caused by the DTW variant used and its incapability of detecting neighborhood similarities, instead it detects absolute similarities. Our proposed method, ShapeDBA, uses the ShapeDTW variant of DTW, that overcomes this issue. We chose time series clustering, a popular form of time series analysis to evaluate the outcome of ShapeDBA compared to the other prototyping approaches. Coupled with the k-means clustering algorithm, and evaluated on a total of 123 datasets from the UCR archive, our proposed averaging approach is able to achieve new state-of-the-art results in terms of Adjusted Rand Index.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

QUANT: A Minimalist Interval Method for Time Series Classification

We show that it is possible to achieve the same accuracy, on average, as the most accurate existing interval methods for time series classification on a standard set of benchmark datasets using a single type of feature (quantiles), fixed intervals, and an 'off the shelf' classifier. This distillation of interval-based approaches represents a fast and accurate method for time series classification, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy on the expanded set of 142 datasets in the UCR archive with a total compute time (training and inference) of less than 15 minutes using a single CPU core.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Improving Position Encoding of Transformers for Multivariate Time Series Classification

Transformers have demonstrated outstanding performance in many applications of deep learning. When applied to time series data, transformers require effective position encoding to capture the ordering of the time series data. The efficacy of position encoding in time series analysis is not well-studied and remains controversial, e.g., whether it is better to inject absolute position encoding or relative position encoding, or a combination of them. In order to clarify this, we first review existing absolute and relative position encoding methods when applied in time series classification. We then proposed a new absolute position encoding method dedicated to time series data called time Absolute Position Encoding (tAPE). Our new method incorporates the series length and input embedding dimension in absolute position encoding. Additionally, we propose computationally Efficient implementation of Relative Position Encoding (eRPE) to improve generalisability for time series. We then propose a novel multivariate time series classification (MTSC) model combining tAPE/eRPE and convolution-based input encoding named ConvTran to improve the position and data embedding of time series data. The proposed absolute and relative position encoding methods are simple and efficient. They can be easily integrated into transformer blocks and used for downstream tasks such as forecasting, extrinsic regression, and anomaly detection. Extensive experiments on 32 multivariate time-series datasets show that our model is significantly more accurate than state-of-the-art convolution and transformer-based models. Code and models are open-sourced at \url{https://github.com/Navidfoumani/ConvTran}.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

An Approach to Multiple Comparison Benchmark Evaluations that is Stable Under Manipulation of the Comparate Set

The measurement of progress using benchmarks evaluations is ubiquitous in computer science and machine learning. However, common approaches to analyzing and presenting the results of benchmark comparisons of multiple algorithms over multiple datasets, such as the critical difference diagram introduced by Demšar (2006), have important shortcomings and, we show, are open to both inadvertent and intentional manipulation. To address these issues, we propose a new approach to presenting the results of benchmark comparisons, the Multiple Comparison Matrix (MCM), that prioritizes pairwise comparisons and precludes the means of manipulating experimental results in existing approaches. MCM can be used to show the results of an all-pairs comparison, or to show the results of a comparison between one or more selected algorithms and the state of the art. MCM is implemented in Python and is publicly available.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2023

Proximity Forest 2.0: A new effective and scalable similarity-based classifier for time series

Time series classification (TSC) is a challenging task due to the diversity of types of feature that may be relevant for different classification tasks, including trends, variance, frequency, magnitude, and various patterns. To address this challenge, several alternative classes of approach have been developed, including similarity-based, features and intervals, shapelets, dictionary, kernel, neural network, and hybrid approaches. While kernel, neural network, and hybrid approaches perform well overall, some specialized approaches are better suited for specific tasks. In this paper, we propose a new similarity-based classifier, Proximity Forest version 2.0 (PF 2.0), which outperforms previous state-of-the-art similarity-based classifiers across the UCR benchmark and outperforms state-of-the-art kernel, neural network, and hybrid methods on specific datasets in the benchmark that are best addressed by similarity-base methods. PF 2.0 incorporates three recent advances in time series similarity measures -- (1) computationally efficient early abandoning and pruning to speedup elastic similarity computations; (2) a new elastic similarity measure, Amerced Dynamic Time Warping (ADTW); and (3) cost function tuning. It rationalizes the set of similarity measures employed, reducing the eight base measures of the original PF to three and using the first derivative transform with all similarity measures, rather than a limited subset. We have implemented both PF 1.0 and PF 2.0 in a single C++ framework, making the PF framework more efficient.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Parameterizing the cost function of Dynamic Time Warping with application to time series classification

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is a popular time series distance measure that aligns the points in two series with one another. These alignments support warping of the time dimension to allow for processes that unfold at differing rates. The distance is the minimum sum of costs of the resulting alignments over any allowable warping of the time dimension. The cost of an alignment of two points is a function of the difference in the values of those points. The original cost function was the absolute value of this difference. Other cost functions have been proposed. A popular alternative is the square of the difference. However, to our knowledge, this is the first investigation of both the relative impacts of using different cost functions and the potential to tune cost functions to different tasks. We do so in this paper by using a tunable cost function λγ with parameter γ. We show that higher values of γ place greater weight on larger pairwise differences, while lower values place greater weight on smaller pairwise differences. We demonstrate that training γ significantly improves the accuracy of both the DTW nearest neighbor and Proximity Forest classifiers.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Elastic Similarity and Distance Measures for Multivariate Time Series

This paper contributes multivariate versions of seven commonly used elastic similarity and distance measures for time series data analytics. Elastic similarity and distance measures are a class of similarity measures that can compensate for misalignments in the time axis of time series data. We adapt two existing strategies used in a multivariate version of the well-known Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), namely, Independent and Dependent DTW, to these seven measures. While these measures can be applied to various time series analysis tasks, we demonstrate their utility on multivariate time series classification using the nearest neighbor classifier. On 23 well-known datasets, we demonstrate that each of the measures but one achieves the highest accuracy relative to others on at least one dataset, supporting the value of developing a suite of multivariate similarity and distance measures. We also demonstrate that there are datasets for which either the dependent versions of all measures are more accurate than their independent counterparts or vice versa. In addition, we also construct a nearest neighbor-based ensemble of the measures and show that it is competitive to other state-of-the-art single-strategy multivariate time series classifiers.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Computing Divergences between Discrete Decomposable Models

There are many applications that benefit from computing the exact divergence between 2 discrete probability measures, including machine learning. Unfortunately, in the absence of any assumptions on the structure or independencies within these distributions, computing the divergence between them is an intractable problem in high dimensions. We show that we are able to compute a wide family of functionals and divergences, such as the alpha-beta divergence, between two decomposable models, i.e. chordal Markov networks, in time exponential to the treewidth of these models. The alpha-beta divergence is a family of divergences that include popular divergences such as the Kullback-Leibler divergence, the Hellinger distance, and the chi-squared divergence. Thus, we can accurately compute the exact values of any of this broad class of divergences to the extent to which we can accurately model the two distributions using decomposable models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

SETAR-Tree: A Novel and Accurate Tree Algorithm for Global Time Series Forecasting

Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models have been widely used by statisticians for non-linear time series forecasting during the past few decades, due to their simplicity and mathematical properties. On the other hand, in the forecasting community, general-purpose tree-based regression algorithms (forests, gradient-boosting) have become popular recently due to their ease of use and accuracy. In this paper, we explore the close connections between TAR models and regression trees. These enable us to use the rich methodology from the literature on TAR models to define a hierarchical TAR model as a regression tree that trains globally across series, which we call SETAR-Tree. In contrast to the general-purpose tree-based models that do not primarily focus on forecasting, and calculate averages at the leaf nodes, we introduce a new forecasting-specific tree algorithm that trains global Pooled Regression (PR) models in the leaves allowing the models to learn cross-series information and also uses some time-series-specific splitting and stopping procedures. The depth of the tree is controlled by conducting a statistical linearity test commonly employed in TAR models, as well as measuring the error reduction percentage at each node split. Thus, the proposed tree model requires minimal external hyperparameter tuning and provides competitive results under its default configuration. We also use this tree algorithm to develop a forest where the forecasts provided by a collection of diverse SETAR-Trees are combined during the forecasting process. In our evaluation on eight publicly available datasets, the proposed tree and forest models are able to achieve significantly higher accuracy than a set of state-of-the-art tree-based algorithms and forecasting benchmarks across four evaluation metrics.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

HYDRA: Competing convolutional kernels for fast and accurate time series classification

We demonstrate a simple connection between dictionary methods for time series classification, which involve extracting and counting symbolic patterns in time series, and methods based on transforming input time series using convolutional kernels, namely ROCKET and its variants. We show that by adjusting a single hyperparameter it is possible to move by degrees between models resembling dictionary methods and models resembling ROCKET. We present HYDRA, a simple, fast, and accurate dictionary method for time series classification using competing convolutional kernels, combining key aspects of both ROCKET and conventional dictionary methods. HYDRA is faster and more accurate than the most accurate existing dictionary methods, and can be combined with ROCKET and its variants to further improve the accuracy of these methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

MultiRocket: Multiple pooling operators and transformations for fast and effective time series classification

We propose MultiRocket, a fast time series classification (TSC) algorithm that achieves state-of-the-art performance with a tiny fraction of the time and without the complex ensembling structure of many state-of-the-art methods. MultiRocket improves on MiniRocket, one of the fastest TSC algorithms to date, by adding multiple pooling operators and transformations to improve the diversity of the features generated. In addition to processing the raw input series, MultiRocket also applies first order differences to transform the original series. Convolutions are applied to both representations, and four pooling operators are applied to the convolution outputs. When benchmarked using the University of California Riverside TSC benchmark datasets, MultiRocket is significantly more accurate than MiniRocket, and competitive with the best ranked current method in terms of accuracy, HIVE-COTE 2.0, while being orders of magnitude faster.

cs.LG↗