arXiv subjects

Geoffrey I. Webb

Publications and source records attributed to Geoffrey I. Webb.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Amercing: An Intuitive, Elegant and Effective Constraint for Dynamic Time Warping

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), and its constrained (CDTW) and weighted (WDTW) variants, are time series distances with a wide range of applications. They minimize the cost of non-linear alignments between series. CDTW and WDTW have been introduced because DTW is too permissive in its alignments. However, CDTW uses a crude step function, allowing unconstrained flexibility within the window, and none beyond it. WDTW's multiplicative weight is relative to the distances between aligned points along a warped path, rather than being a direct function of the amount of warping that is introduced. In this paper, we introduce Amerced Dynamic Time Warping (ADTW), a new, intuitive, DTW variant that penalizes the act of warping by a fixed additive cost. Like CDTW and WDTW, ADTW constrains the amount of warping. However, it avoids both abrupt discontinuities in the amount of warping allowed and the limitations of a multiplicative penalty. We formally introduce ADTW, prove some of its properties, and discuss its parameterization. We show on a simple example how it can be parameterized to achieve an intuitive outcome, and demonstrate its usefulness on a standard time series classification benchmark. We provide a demonstration application in C++.

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arXiv2021

Ensembles of Localised Models for Time Series Forecasting

With large quantities of data typically available nowadays, forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), are regularly outperforming traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. As GFMs usually share the same set of parameters across all time series, they often have the problem of not being localised enough to a particular series, especially in situations where datasets are heterogeneous. We study how ensembling techniques can be used with generic GFMs and univariate models to solve this issue. Our work systematises and compares relevant current approaches, namely clustering series and training separate submodels per cluster, the so-called ensemble of specialists approach, and building heterogeneous ensembles of global and local models. We fill some gaps in the existing GFM localisation approaches, in particular by incorporating varied clustering techniques such as feature-based clustering, distance-based clustering and random clustering, and generalise them to use different underlying GFM model types. We then propose a new methodology of clustered ensembles where we train multiple GFMs on different clusters of series, obtained by changing the number of clusters and cluster seeds. Using Feed-forward Neural Networks, Recurrent Neural Networks, and Pooled Regression models as the underlying GFMs, in our evaluation on eight publicly available datasets, the proposed models are able to achieve significantly higher accuracy than baseline GFM models and univariate forecasting methods.

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arXiv2021

MINIROCKET: A Very Fast (Almost) Deterministic Transform for Time Series Classification

Until recently, the most accurate methods for time series classification were limited by high computational complexity. ROCKET achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with a fraction of the computational expense of most existing methods by transforming input time series using random convolutional kernels, and using the transformed features to train a linear classifier. We reformulate ROCKET into a new method, MINIROCKET, making it up to 75 times faster on larger datasets, and making it almost deterministic (and optionally, with additional computational expense, fully deterministic), while maintaining essentially the same accuracy. Using this method, it is possible to train and test a classifier on all of 109 datasets from the UCR archive to state-of-the-art accuracy in less than 10 minutes. MINIROCKET is significantly faster than any other method of comparable accuracy (including ROCKET), and significantly more accurate than any other method of even roughly-similar computational expense. As such, we suggest that MINIROCKET should now be considered and used as the default variant of ROCKET.

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arXiv2021

Early Abandoning and Pruning for Elastic Distances including Dynamic Time Warping

Nearest neighbor search under elastic distances is a key tool for time series analysis, supporting many applications. However, straightforward implementations of distances require $O(n^2)$ space and time complexities, preventing these applications from scaling to long series. Much work has been devoted to speeding up the NN search process, mostly with the development of lower bounds, allowing to avoid costly distance computations when a given threshold is exceeded. This threshold, provided by the similarity search process, also allows to early abandon the computation of a distance itself. Another approach, is to prune parts of the computation. All these techniques are othogonal to each other. In this work, we develop a new generic strategy, "EAPruned", that tightly integrates pruning with early abandoning. We apply it to six elastic distance measures: DTW, CDTW, WDTW, ERP, MSM and TWE, showing substantial speedup in NN search applications. Pruning alone also shows substantial speedup for some distances, benefiting applications beyond the scope of NN search (e.g. requiring all pairwise distances), and hence where early abandoning is not applicable. We~release our implementation as part of a new C++ library for time series classification, along with easy to use Python/Numpy bindings.

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arXiv2021

Monash Time Series Forecasting Archive

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

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arXiv2021

A Bayesian-inspired, deep learning-based, semi-supervised domain adaptation technique for land cover mapping

Land cover maps are a vital input variable to many types of environmental research and management. While they can be produced automatically by machine learning techniques, these techniques require substantial training data to achieve high levels of accuracy, which are not always available. One technique researchers use when labelled training data are scarce is domain adaptation (DA) -- where data from an alternate region, known as the source domain, are used to train a classifier and this model is adapted to map the study region, or target domain. The scenario we address in this paper is known as semi-supervised DA, where some labelled samples are available in the target domain. In this paper we present Sourcerer, a Bayesian-inspired, deep learning-based, semi-supervised DA technique for producing land cover maps from SITS data. The technique takes a convolutional neural network trained on a source domain and then trains further on the available target domain with a novel regularizer applied to the model weights. The regularizer adjusts the degree to which the model is modified to fit the target data, limiting the degree of change when the target data are few in number and increasing it as target data quantity increases. Our experiments on Sentinel-2 time series images compare Sourcerer with two state-of-the-art semi-supervised domain adaptation techniques and four baseline models. We show that on two different source-target domain pairings Sourcerer outperforms all other methods for any quantity of labelled target data available. In fact, the results on the more difficult target domain show that the starting accuracy of Sourcerer (when no labelled target data are available), 74.2%, is greater than the next-best state-of-the-art method trained on 20,000 labelled target instances.

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arXiv2021

Tight lower bounds for Dynamic Time Warping

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is a popular similarity measure for aligning and comparing time series. Due to DTW's high computation time, lower bounds are often employed to screen poor matches. Many alternative lower bounds have been proposed, providing a range of different trade-offs between tightness and computational efficiency. LB Keogh provides a useful trade-off in many applications. Two recent lower bounds, LB Improved and LB Enhanced, are substantially tighter than LB Keogh. All three have the same worst case computational complexity - linear with respect to series length and constant with respect to window size. We present four new DTW lower bounds in the same complexity class. LB Petitjean is substantially tighter than LB Improved, with only modest additional computational overhead. LB Webb is more efficient than LB Improved, while often providing a tighter bound. LB Webb is always tighter than LB Keogh. The parameter free LB Webb is usually tighter than LB Enhanced. A parameterized variant, LB Webb Enhanced, is always tighter than LB Enhanced. A further variant, LB Webb*, is useful for some constrained distance functions. In extensive experiments, LB Webb proves to be very effective for nearest neighbor search.

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arXiv2021

Time Series Extrinsic Regression

This paper studies Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER): a regression task of which the aim is to learn the relationship between a time series and a continuous scalar variable; a task closely related to time series classification (TSC), which aims to learn the relationship between a time series and a categorical class label. This task generalizes time series forecasting (TSF), relaxing the requirement that the value predicted be a future value of the input series or primarily depend on more recent values. In this paper, we motivate and study this task, and benchmark existing solutions and adaptations of TSC algorithms on a novel archive of 19 TSER datasets which we have assembled. Our results show that the state-of-the-art TSC algorithm Rocket, when adapted for regression, achieves the highest overall accuracy compared to adaptations of other TSC algorithms and state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) algorithms such as XGBoost, Random Forest and Support Vector Regression. More importantly, we show that much research is needed in this field to improve the accuracy of ML models. We also find evidence that further research has excellent prospects of improving upon these straightforward baselines.

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arXiv2020

InceptionTime: Finding AlexNet for Time Series Classification

This paper brings deep learning at the forefront of research into Time Series Classification (TSC). TSC is the area of machine learning tasked with the categorization (or labelling) of time series. The last few decades of work in this area have led to significant progress in the accuracy of classifiers, with the state of the art now represented by the HIVE-COTE algorithm. While extremely accurate, HIVE-COTE cannot be applied to many real-world datasets because of its high training time complexity in O(N2 * T4) for a dataset with N time series of length T. For example, it takes HIVE-COTE more than 8 days to learn from a small dataset with N = 1500 time series of short length T = 46. Meanwhile deep learning has received enormous attention because of its high accuracy and scalability. Recent approaches to deep learning for TSC have been scalable, but less accurate than HIVE-COTE. We introduce InceptionTime - an ensemble of deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models, inspired by the Inception-v4 architecture. Our experiments show that InceptionTime is on par with HIVE-COTE in terms of accuracy while being much more scalable: not only can it learn from 1,500 time series in one hour but it can also learn from 8M time series in 13 hours, a quantity of data that is fully out of reach of HIVE-COTE.

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arXiv2020

Discriminative, Generative and Self-Supervised Approaches for Target-Agnostic Learning

Supervised learning, characterized by both discriminative and generative learning, seeks to predict the values of single (or sometimes multiple) predefined target attributes based on a predefined set of predictor attributes. For applications where the information available and predictions to be made may vary from instance to instance, we propose the task of target-agnostic learning where arbitrary disjoint sets of attributes can be used for each of predictors and targets for each to-be-predicted instance. For this task, we survey a wide range of techniques available for handling missing values, self-supervised training and pseudo-likelihood training, and adapt them to a suite of algorithms that are suitable for the task. We conduct extensive experiments on this suite of algorithms on a large collection of categorical, continuous and discretized datasets, and report their performance in terms of both classification and regression errors. We also report the training and prediction time of these algorithms when handling large-scale datasets. Both generative and self-supervised learning models are shown to perform well at the task, although their characteristics towards the different types of data are quite different. Nevertheless, our derived theorem for the pseudo-likelihood theory also shows that they are related for inferring a joint distribution model based on the pseudo-likelihood training.

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arXiv2020

Monash University, UEA, UCR Time Series Extrinsic Regression Archive

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

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arXiv2020

Early Abandoning PrunedDTW and its application to similarity search

The Dynamic Time Warping ("DTW") distance is widely used in time series analysis, be it for classification, clustering or similarity search. However, its quadratic time complexity prevents it from scaling. Strategies, based on early abandoning DTW or skipping its computation altogether thanks to lower bounds, have been developed for certain use cases such as nearest neighbour search. But vectorization and approximation aside, no advance was made on DTW itself until recently with the introduction of PrunedDTW. This algorithm, able to prune unpromising alignments, was later fitted with early abandoning. We present a new version of PrunedDTW, "EAPrunedDTW", designed with early abandon in mind from the start, and able to early abandon faster than before. We show that EAPrunedDTW significantly improves the computation time of similarity search in the UCR Suite, and renders lower bounds dispensable.

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arXiv2020

TS-CHIEF: A Scalable and Accurate Forest Algorithm for Time Series Classification

Time Series Classification (TSC) has seen enormous progress over the last two decades. HIVE-COTE (Hierarchical Vote Collective of Transformation-based Ensembles) is the current state of the art in terms of classification accuracy. HIVE-COTE recognizes that time series data are a specific data type for which the traditional attribute-value representation, used predominantly in machine learning, fails to provide a relevant representation. HIVE-COTE combines multiple types of classifiers: each extracting information about a specific aspect of a time series, be it in the time domain, frequency domain or summarization of intervals within the series. However, HIVE-COTE (and its predecessor, FLAT-COTE) is often infeasible to run on even modest amounts of data. For instance, training HIVE-COTE on a dataset with only 1,500 time series can require 8 days of CPU time. It has polynomial runtime with respect to the training set size, so this problem compounds as data quantity increases. We propose a novel TSC algorithm, TS-CHIEF (Time Series Combination of Heterogeneous and Integrated Embedding Forest), which rivals HIVE-COTE in accuracy but requires only a fraction of the runtime. TS-CHIEF constructs an ensemble classifier that integrates the most effective embeddings of time series that research has developed in the last decade. It uses tree-structured classifiers to do so efficiently. We assess TS-CHIEF on 85 datasets of the University of California Riverside (UCR) archive, where it achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with scalability and efficiency. We demonstrate that TS-CHIEF can be trained on 130k time series in 2 days, a data quantity that is beyond the reach of any TSC algorithm with comparable accuracy.

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arXiv2019

An Incremental Construction of Deep Neuro Fuzzy System for Continual Learning of Non-stationary Data Streams

Existing FNNs are mostly developed under a shallow network configuration having lower generalization power than those of deep structures. This paper proposes a novel self-organizing deep FNN, namely DEVFNN. Fuzzy rules can be automatically extracted from data streams or removed if they play limited role during their lifespan. The structure of the network can be deepened on demand by stacking additional layers using a drift detection method which not only detects the covariate drift, variations of input space, but also accurately identifies the real drift, dynamic changes of both feature space and target space. DEVFNN is developed under the stacked generalization principle via the feature augmentation concept where a recently developed algorithm, namely gClass, drives the hidden layer. It is equipped by an automatic feature selection method which controls activation and deactivation of input attributes to induce varying subsets of input features. A deep network simplification procedure is put forward using the concept of hidden layer merging to prevent uncontrollable growth of dimensionality of input space due to the nature of feature augmentation approach in building a deep network structure. DEVFNN works in the sample-wise fashion and is compatible for data stream applications. The efficacy of DEVFNN has been thoroughly evaluated using seven datasets with non-stationary properties under the prequential test-then-train protocol. It has been compared with four popular continual learning algorithms and its shallow counterpart where DEVFNN demonstrates improvement of classification accuracy. Moreover, it is also shown that the concept drift detection method is an effective tool to control the depth of network structure while the hidden layer merging scenario is capable of simplifying the network complexity of a deep network with negligible compromise of generalization performance.

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arXiv2019

ROCKET: Exceptionally fast and accurate time series classification using random convolutional kernels

Most methods for time series classification that attain state-of-the-art accuracy have high computational complexity, requiring significant training time even for smaller datasets, and are intractable for larger datasets. Additionally, many existing methods focus on a single type of feature such as shape or frequency. Building on the recent success of convolutional neural networks for time series classification, we show that simple linear classifiers using random convolutional kernels achieve state-of-the-art accuracy with a fraction of the computational expense of existing methods.

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arXiv2019

Time series classification for varying length series

Research into time series classification has tended to focus on the case of series of uniform length. However, it is common for real-world time series data to have unequal lengths. Differing time series lengths may arise from a number of fundamentally different mechanisms. In this work, we identify and evaluate two classes of such mechanisms -- variations in sampling rate relative to the relevant signal and variations between the start and end points of one time series relative to one another. We investigate how time series generated by each of these classes of mechanism are best addressed for time series classification. We perform extensive experiments and provide practical recommendations on how variations in length should be handled in time series classification.

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arXiv2019

Elastic bands across the path: A new framework and methods to lower bound DTW

There has been renewed recent interest in developing effective lower bounds for Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance between time series. These have many applications in time series indexing, clustering, forecasting, regression and classification. One of the key time series classification algorithms, the nearest neighbor algorithm with DTW distance (NN-DTW) is very expensive to compute, due to the quadratic complexity of DTW. Lower bound search can speed up NN-DTW substantially. An effective and tight lower bound quickly prunes off unpromising nearest neighbor candidates from the search space and minimises the number of the costly DTW computations. The speed up provided by lower bound search becomes increasingly critical as training set size increases. Different lower bounds provide different trade-offs between computation time and tightness. Most existing lower bounds interact with DTW warping window sizes. They are very tight and effective at smaller warping window sizes, but become looser as the warping window increases, thus reducing the pruning effectiveness for NN-DTW. In this work, we present a new class of lower bounds that are tighter than the popular Keogh lower bound, while requiring similar computation time. Our new lower bounds take advantage of the DTW boundary condition, monotonicity and continuity constraints to create a tighter lower bound. Of particular significance, they remain relatively tight even for large windows. A single parameter to these new lower bounds controls the speed-tightness trade-off. We demonstrate that these new lower bounds provide an exceptional balance between computation time and tightness for the NN-DTW time series classification task, resulting in greatly improved efficiency for NN-DTW lower bound search.

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arXiv2019

Temporal Convolutional Neural Network for the Classification of Satellite Image Time Series

New remote sensing sensors now acquire high spatial and spectral Satellite Image Time Series (SITS) of the world. These series of images are a key component of classification systems that aim at obtaining up-to-date and accurate land cover maps of the Earth's surfaces. More specifically, the combination of the temporal, spectral and spatial resolutions of new SITS makes possible to monitor vegetation dynamics. Although traditional classification algorithms, such as Random Forest (RF), have been successfully applied for SITS classification, these algorithms do not make the most of the temporal domain. Conversely, some approaches that take into account the temporal dimension have recently been tested, especially Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). This paper proposes an exhaustive study of another deep learning approaches, namely Temporal Convolutional Neural Networks (TempCNNs) where convolutions are applied in the temporal dimension. The goal is to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the contribution of TempCNNs for SITS classification. This paper proposes a set of experiments performed on one million time series extracted from 46 Formosat-2 images. The experimental results show that TempCNNs are more accurate than RF and RNNs, that are the current state of the art for SITS classification. We also highlight some differences with results obtained in computer vision, e.g. about pooling layers. Moreover, we provide some general guidelines on the network architecture, common regularization mechanisms, and hyper-parameter values such as batch size. Finally, we assess the visual quality of the land cover maps produced by TempCNNs.

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