arXiv subjects

Gianmarco De Francisci Morales

Publications and source records attributed to Gianmarco De Francisci Morales.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Conspiracy and Environment Communities on Reddit Sort Along Different Demographic Axes

The impact of online platforms in political mobilization is widely documented, yet it remains unclear how it affects different demographic groups. To shed light on this phenomenon, we examine two contrasting cases: engagement with environmental causes on one side, and with conspiracy theories on the other. Both are well represented on Reddit, allowing us to study the different origins of these groups using a network-based method. By inferring age, gender, affluence, and partisanship of Reddit users, we construct stratified transition networks to compare the entry pathways of different demographic groups toward these communities. We find that demographic differentiation operates differently in these two domains. Entry into conspiracy communities is primarily structured by gender and partisanship: masculine users disproportionately arrive through overtly political and alt-right spaces and share right-wing media sources, whereas feminine users more often pass through esoteric and spiritual subreddits before converging on r/conspiracy. In contrast, environmental communities are differentiated mainly by age and affluence. Affluent users tend to approach environmental subreddits via discussions of individual energy management, technology, and finance, while less affluent users arrive through protest-oriented and climate movement spaces. By comparing these two issue domains, the study shows that sociodemographic sorting does not operate uniformly across polarized topics. Instead, distinct demographic groups build their own paths, shaping both the routes through which they engage with political content and the informational ecosystems that sustain their engagement. Our approach, based on the attention-flow graph, refines our understanding of how different groups become embedded in online political communities.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Do Androids Dream of Unseen Puppeteers? Probing for a Conspiracy Tendencies in Large Language Models

We investigate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit conspiratorial tendencies, whether they display socio-demographic biases in this domain, and how easily they can be conditioned into adopting conspiratorial perspectives. Conspiracy beliefs play a central role in the spread of misinformation and in shaping distrust toward institutions, making them an important testbed for assessing the social and psychological fidelity of LLMs and their potential to reproduce or reinforce harmful narratives. Although LLMs are often used as proxies for studying human behavior, it remains unclear whether they reproduce higher-order psychological constructs such as generalized conspiratorial beliefs. To bridge this research gap, we administer validated psychometric surveys measuring conspiratorial mindset to multiple models under different prompting and conditioning strategies. Our findings reveal that LLMs show partial agreement with elements of conspiracy belief, and conditioning with socio-demographic attributes produces uneven effects, exposing latent demographic biases. Moreover, targeted prompts can easily shift model responses toward conspiratorial directions, underscoring both the susceptibility of LLMs to manipulation and the potential risks of their deployment in sensitive contexts. These results highlight the importance of critically evaluating the psychological dimensions embedded in LLMs, both to advance computational social science and to inform possible mitigation strategies against harmful uses.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Beyond the Rabbit Hole: Mapping the Relational Harms of QAnon Radicalization

Large-scale computational research on conspiracy theories has focused exclusively on believers' online behavior, leaving the harm experienced by those closest to them under-examined. This paper bridges this gap by analyzing 12747 stories from r/QAnonCasualties, an online support group for people who have ``lost'' someone to conspiracy beliefs. We design a computational pipeline to extract fine-grained thematic traits from personal narratives and cluster them into six coherent radicalization personas, which we then link to the emotional toll reported by narrators via LLM-assisted emotion detection and regression modeling. We find that personas are meaningful predictors of specific emotional harms: radicalization perceived as a deliberate ideological choice is associated with anger and disgust, while personas marked by personal and cognitive collapse correspond to fear and sadness. This work provides an empirically grounded computational framework for understanding the relational harms of radicalization, opening new avenues for research into its wider social consequences.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Gender-based discrepancies in the algorithmic delivery of political ads on social media

Social media has become a key channel for political advertising during election campaigns. However, algorithmic biases in the delivery of these ads may distort the public's exposure to political messaging. This can hinder citizens' ability to make informed choices and undermine equal access to political discourse, raising concerns about the integrity of electoral processes. In this study, we examine gender-based discrimination in the delivery of political ads during the 2024 European Parliament elections. Using a large-scale dataset of over 110000 ads from 453 political parties and 968 candidates that generated over 7 billion impressions across 25 EU countries, we find that men were significantly more likely to be shown ads from populist and far-right parties than women -- even after accounting for ad content, platform-level competition, and targeting strategies. All else equal, ads by populist parties reach, on average, a 6 percentage point higher male share. Such imbalances restrict the ability of parties to reach diverse audiences and prevent voters from engaging equally with the full range of political viewpoints. This pattern is particularly concerning given that far-right and populist ads may reinforce political polarization and widen existing gender gaps in political engagement. Our findings underscore the need for platforms and policymakers to audit algorithmic ad delivery in political campaigns on social media and to implement safeguards that ensure fairness and protect democratic processes.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Learning Perspectivist Social Meaning via Demographic-Conditioned Fusion Embeddings

Social meaning in language is inherently perspectival, varying across annotator backgrounds, demographics, and ideological positions. However, most NLP systems collapse this variation into a single ground-truth label, ignoring the diversity of interpretations. In this work, we model social dimensions along a perspectivist spectrum, capturing how interpretations vary across demographic groups on a dataset consisting of 28k human annotations. We benchmark multiple modeling paradigms, including zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuned approaches, and propose fusion embeddings that integrate textual and demographic representations. Our fusion models yield consistent and statistically significant improvements over text-only baselines across all fusion strategies (+5.9-6.5% relative macro PR-AUC), with shuffle ablations confirming that demographic profiles carry genuine predictive signal rather than spurious correlations.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models

In this paper, we present the first systematic comparison of Data Assimilation (DA) and Likelihood-Based Inference (LBI) in the context of an Agent-Based Model (ABM). These models generate observable time series driven by evolving, partially-latent microstates. Latent states must be estimated to align simulations with real-world data, a task traditionally addressed by DA, particularly in continuous and equation-based models used in weather forecasting. However, the nature of ABMs poses challenges for standard DA methods. Solving such issues requires adapting previous DA techniques or using ad hoc alternatives such as LBI. DA approximates the likelihood in a model-agnostic way, making it broadly applicable but potentially less precise. In contrast, LBI provides more accurate state estimation by directly leveraging the model's likelihood, but at the cost of requiring a hand-crafted, model-specific likelihood function, which may be complex or infeasible to derive. We compare the two methods on the Bounded-Confidence Model, a well-known opinion dynamics ABM, where agents are affected only by others holding sufficiently similar opinions. We find that LBI better recovers latent agent-level opinions, even under model mis-specification, leading to improved individual-level forecasts. At the aggregate level, however, both methods perform comparably, and DA remains competitive across levels of aggregation under certain parameter settings. Our findings suggest that DA is well-suited for aggregate predictions, while LBI is preferable for agent-level inference.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Among Us: Language of Conspiracy Theorists on Mainstream Reddit

The interaction between fringe subcultures and mainstream online communities poses significant challenges for understanding discourse on social media. In this work, we investigate whether users active in conspiracy-focused communities exhibit detectable linguistic signatures when participating in general-interest spaces, such as news, humor, or hobbyist forums. We analyze a large-scale longitudinal dataset of over 500 million comments spanning 10 years of Reddit activity, examining the communication patterns of these users across diverse social contexts independent of the topics they discuss. We show that these users exhibit distinctive linguistic patterns that enable machine learning models to reliably distinguish them from the general population within individual communities (averaging 87\% accuracy across more than 20 binary classification tasks). Crucially, no single aggregate model captures these patterns across communities, as community-specific models outperform global classifiers by up to 17 percentage points. This result suggests that while these users are distinct, their linguistic expression is dynamic and highly responsive to the social norms of the environment they inhabit. Our findings suggest the need for tailored interventions in online spaces, as linguistic signals associated with conspiracy and fringe subcultures vary across communities and cannot be effectively addressed by uniform detection or moderation strategies.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Conditional Publics: Shared Events and Divergent Meanings in the European Twitter Debate on the Ukraine War

How do European publics debate a geopolitical crisis on social media, and do they inhabit a shared informational reality? We analyze over 38 million geolocated tweets from 20 European countries during the first eight months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Using retweet community detection and stance annotation across six issues, we identify 'hawkish' and 'doveish' opinion clusters present within almost every country studied. We find that structural polarization is driven not by radicalization, but by the exit of casual users. Crucially, whether opposing sides orient to the same events depends on the issue. On pragmatist issues, both sides react to the same high-profile events, forming an agonistic public sphere. Instead, on interpretive issues, they operate as affective publics and counterpublics constructing divergent meanings. We propose conditional publics to describe formations whose relational structure, sharing or fracturing a referential frame, depends on the epistemic character of the debated issue.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Effects of Algorithmic Visibility on Conspiracy Communities: Reddit after Epstein's 'Suicide'

Following the death of Jeffrey Epstein, the subreddit r/conspiracy experienced a significant visibility shock that brought mainstream users into direct contact with established conspiracy narratives. In this work, we explore how large-scale surges in public attention reshape participation and discourse within online conspiracy communities. We ask whether a sudden increase in exposure changes who join r/conspiracy, how long they stay, and how they adapt linguistically, compared with users who arrive through organic discovery. Using a computational framework that combines toxicity scores, survival analysis, and lexical and semantic measures over a period of 12 months, we observe that mainstream visibility is is associated with patterns consistent with a selection mechanism rather than a simple amplifier. Users who join the conspiracy community during the arrest-period tend to show higher linguistic similarity to core users, especially regarding linguistic and thematic norms and showing more stable engagement over time. By contrast, users who arrive during the height of public visibility remain semantically distant from core discourse and participate more briefly. Overall, we find that mainstream visibility is connected with changes in audience size, community composition, and linguistic cohesion. However, incidental exposure during attention shocks does not typically produce durable, integrated community members. These results provide a more nuanced understanding of how external events and platform visibility influence the growth and evolution of conspiracy spaces, offering insights for the design of responsible and transparent recommendation systems.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Variational Inference of Parameters in Opinion Dynamics Models

Despite the frequent use of agent-based models (ABMs) for studying social phenomena, parameter estimation remains a challenge, often relying on costly simulation-based heuristics. This work uses variational inference to estimate the parameters of an opinion dynamics ABM, by transforming the estimation problem into an optimization task that can be solved directly. Our proposal relies on probabilistic generative ABMs (PGABMs): we start by synthesizing a probabilistic generative model from the ABM rules. Then, we transform the inference process into an optimization problem suitable for automatic differentiation. In particular, we use the Gumbel-Softmax reparameterization for categorical agent attributes and stochastic variational inference for parameter estimation. Furthermore, we explore the trade-offs of using variational distributions with different complexity: normal distributions and normalizing flows. We validate our method on a bounded confidence model with agent roles (leaders and followers). Our approach estimates both macroscopic (bounded confidence intervals and backfire thresholds) and microscopic ($200$ categorical, agent-level roles) more accurately than simulation-based and MCMC methods. Consequently, our technique enables experts to tune and validate their ABMs against real-world observations, thus providing insights into human behavior in social systems via data-driven analysis.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

DSP: A Statistically-Principled Structural Polarization Measure

Social and information networks may become polarized, leading to echo chambers and political gridlock. Accurately measuring this phenomenon is a critical challenge. Existing measures often conflate genuine structural division with random topological features, yielding misleadingly high polarization scores on random networks, and failing to distinguish real-world networks from randomized null models. We introduce DSP, a Diffusion-based Structural Polarization measure designed from first principles to correct for such biases. DSP removes the arbitrary concept of 'influencers' used by the popular Random Walk Controversy (RWC) score, instead treating every node as a potential origin for a random walk. To validate our approach, we introduce a set of desirable properties for polarization measures, expressed through reference topologies with known structural properties. We show that DSP satisfies these desiderata, being near-zero for non-polarized structures such as cliques and random networks, while correctly capturing the expected polarization of reference topologies such as monochromatic-splittable networks. Our method applied to U.S. Congress datasets uncovers trends of increasing polarization in recent years. By integrating a null model into its core definition, DSP provides a reliable and interpretable diagnostic tool, highlighting the necessity of statistically-grounded metrics to analyze societal fragmentation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Uncovering the Sociodemographic Fabric of Reddit

Understanding the sociodemographic composition of online platforms is essential for accurately interpreting digital behavior and its societal implications. Yet, current methods often lack the transparency and reliability required, risking misrepresenting social identities and distorting our understanding of digital society. Here, we introduce a principled framework for sociodemographic inference on Reddit that leverages over 850,000 user self-declarations of age, gender, and partisan affiliation. By training models on sparse user activity signals from this extensive, self-disclosed dataset, we demonstrate that simple probabilistic models, such as Naive Bayes, outperform more complex embedding-based alternatives. Our approach improves classification performance over the state of the art by up to 19% in ROC AUC and maintains quantification error below 15%. The models produce well-calibrated and interpretable outputs, enabling uncertainty estimation and subreddit-level feature importance analysis. More broadly, this work advocates for a shift toward more ethical and transparent computational social science by grounding sociodemographic analysis in user-provided data rather than researcher assumptions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Bias and Identifiability in the Bounded Confidence Model

Opinion dynamics models such as the bounded confidence models (BCMs) describe how a population can reach consensus, fragmentation, or polarization, depending on a few parameters. Connecting such models to real-world data could help understanding such phenomena, testing model assumptions. To this end, estimation of model parameters is a key aspect, and maximum likelihood estimation provides a principled way to tackle it. Here, our goal is to outline the properties of statistical estimators of the two key BCM parameters: the confidence bound and the convergence rate. We find that their maximum likelihood estimators present different characteristics: the one for the confidence bound presents a small-sample bias but is consistent, while the estimator of the convergence rate shows a persistent bias. Moreover, the joint parameter estimation is affected by identifiability issues for specific regions of the parameter space, as several local maxima are present in the likelihood function. Our results show how the analysis of the likelihood function is a fruitful approach for better understanding the pitfalls and possibilities of estimating the parameters of opinion dynamics models, and more in general, agent-based models, and for offering formal guarantees for their calibration.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Alice and the Caterpillar: A more descriptive null model for assessing data mining results

We introduce novel null models for assessing the results obtained from observed binary transactional and sequence datasets, using statistical hypothesis testing. Our null models maintain more properties of the observed dataset than existing ones. Specifically, they preserve the Bipartite Joint Degree Matrix of the bipartite (multi-)graph corresponding to the dataset, which ensures that the number of caterpillars, i.e., paths of length three, is preserved, in addition to other properties considered by other models. We describe Alice, a suite of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for sampling datasets from our null models, based on a carefully defined set of states and efficient operations to move between them. The results of our experimental evaluation show that Alice mixes fast and scales well, and that our null model finds different significant results than ones previously considered in the literature.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Conspiracy theories and where to find them on TikTok

TikTok has skyrocketed in popularity over recent years, especially among younger audiences. However, there are public concerns about the potential of this platform to promote and amplify harmful content. This study presents the first systematic analysis of conspiracy theories on TikTok. By leveraging the official TikTok Research API we collect a longitudinal dataset of 1.5M videos shared in the U.S. over three years. We estimate a lower bound on the prevalence of conspiratorial videos (up to 1000 new videos per month) and evaluate the effects of TikTok's Creativity Program for monetization, observing an overall increase in video duration regardless of content. Lastly, we evaluate the capabilities of state-of-the-art open-weight Large Language Models to identify conspiracy theories from audio transcriptions of videos. While these models achieve high precision in detecting harmful content (up to 96%), their overall performance remains comparable to fine-tuned traditional models such as RoBERTa. Our findings suggest that Large Language Models can serve as an effective tool for supporting content moderation strategies aimed at reducing the spread of harmful content on TikTok.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Risk-aware Trading Portfolio Optimization

We investigate portfolio optimization in financial markets from a trading and risk management perspective. We term this task Risk-Aware Trading Portfolio Optimization (RATPO), formulate the corresponding optimization problem, and propose an efficient Risk-Aware Trading Swarm (RATS) algorithm to solve it. The key elements of RATPO are a generic initial portfolio P, a specific set of Unique Eligible Instruments (UEIs), their combination into an Eligible Optimization Strategy (EOS), an objective function, and a set of constraints. RATS searches for an optimal EOS that, added to P, improves the objective function repecting the constraints. RATS is a specialized Particle Swarm Optimization method that leverages the parameterization of P in terms of UEIs, enables parallel computation with a large number of particles, and is fully general with respect to specific choices of the key elements, which can be customized to encode financial knowledge and needs of traders and risk managers. We showcase two RATPO applications involving a real trading portfolio made of hundreds of different financial instruments, an objective function combining both market risk (VaR) and profit&loss measures, constrains on market sensitivities and UEIs trading costs. In the case of small-sized EOS, RATS successfully identifies the optimal solution and demonstrates robustness with respect to hyper-parameters tuning. In the case of large-sized EOS, RATS markedly improves the portfolio objective value, optimizing risk and capital charge while respecting risk limits and preserving expected profits. Our work bridges the gap between the implementation of effective trading strategies and compliance with stringent regulatory and economic capital requirements, allowing a better alignment of business and risk management objectives.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2025

Narratives of War: Ukrainian Memetic Warfare on Twitter

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has seen an intensification in the use of social media by governmental actors in cyber warfare. Wartime communication via memes has been a successful strategy used not only by independent accounts such as @uamemesforces, but also-for the first time in a full-scale interstate war-by official Ukrainian government accounts such as @Ukraine and @DefenceU. We study this prominent example of memetic warfare through the lens of its narratives, and find them to be a key component of success: tweets with a 'victim' narrative garner twice as many retweets. However, malevolent narratives focusing on the enemy resonate more than those about heroism or victims with countries providing more assistance to Ukraine. Our findings present a nuanced examination of Ukraine's influence operations and of the worldwide response to it, thus contributing new insights into the evolution of socio-technical systems in times of war.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Polaris: Sampling from the Multigraph Configuration Model with Prescribed Color Assortativity

We introduce Polaris, a network null model for colored multi-graphs that preserves the Joint Color Matrix. Polaris is specifically designed for studying network polarization, where vertices belong to a side in a debate or a partisan group, represented by a vertex color, and relations have different strengths, represented by an integer-valued edge multiplicity. The key feature of Polaris is preserving the Joint Color Matrix (JCM) of the multigraph, which specifies the number of edges connecting vertices of any two given colors. The JCM is the basic property that determines color assortativity, a fundamental aspect in studying homophily and segregation in polarized networks. By using Polaris, network scientists can test whether a phenomenon is entirely explained by the JCM of the observed network or whether other phenomena might be at play. Technically, our null model is an extension of the configuration model: an ensemble of colored multigraphs characterized by the same degree sequence and the same JCM. To sample from this ensemble, we develop a suite of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, collectively named Polaris-*. It includes Polaris-B, an adaptation of a generic Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, and Polaris-C, a faster, specialized algorithm with higher acceptance probabilities. This new null model and the associated algorithms provide a more nuanced toolset for examining polarization in social networks, thus enabling statistically sound conclusions.

cs.SI↗