arXiv subjects

Gianmarco De Francisci Morales

Publications and source records attributed to Gianmarco De Francisci Morales.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Causal Modeling of Climate Activism on Reddit

Climate activism is crucial in stimulating collective societal and behavioral change towards sustainable practices through political pressure. Although multiple factors contribute to the participation in activism, their complex relationships and the scarcity of data on their interactions have restricted most prior research to studying them in isolation, thus preventing the development of a quantitative, causal understanding of why people approach activism. In this work, we develop a comprehensive causal model of how and why Reddit users engage with activist communities driving mass climate protests (mainly the 2019 Earth Strike, Fridays for Future, and Extinction Rebellion). Our framework, based on Stochastic Variational Inference applied to Bayesian Networks, learns the causal pathways over multiple time periods. Distinct from previous studies, our approach uses large-scale and fine-grained longitudinal data (2016 to 2022) to jointly model the roles of sociodemographic makeup, experience of extreme weather events, exposure to climate-related news, and social influence through online interactions. We find that among users interested in climate change, participation in online activist communities is indeed influenced by direct interactions with activists and largely by recent exposure to media coverage of climate protests. Among people aware of climate change, left-leaning people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds are particularly represented in online activist groups. Our findings offer empirical validation for theories of media influence and critical mass, and lay the foundations to inform interventions and future studies to foster public participation in collective action.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Higher-order null models as a lens for social systems

Despite the widespread adoption of higher-order mathematical structures such as hypergraphs, methodological tools for their analysis lag behind those for traditional graphs. This work addresses a critical gap in this context by proposing two micro-canonical random null models for directed hypergraphs: the Directed Hypergraph Configuration Model (DHCM) and the Directed Hypergraph JOINT Model (DHJM). These models preserve essential structural properties of directed hypergraphs such as node in- and out-degree sequences and hyperedge head and tail size sequences, or their joint tensor. We also describe two efficient MCMC algorithms, NuDHy-Degs and NuDHy-JOINT, to sample random hypergraphs from these ensembles. To showcase the interdisciplinary applicability of the proposed null models, we present three distinct use cases in sociology, epidemiology, and economics. First, we reveal the oscillatory behavior of increased homophily in opposition parties in the US Congress over a 40-year span, emphasizing the role of higher-order structures in quantifying political group homophily. Second, we investigate non-linear contagion in contact hyper-networks, demonstrating that disparities between simulations and theoretical predictions can be explained by considering higher-order joint degree distributions. Last, we examine the economic complexity of countries in the global trade network, showing that local network properties preserved by NuDHy explain the main structural economic complexity indexes. This work advances the development of null models for directed hypergraphs, addressing the intricate challenges posed by their complex entity relations, and providing a versatile suite of tools for researchers across various domains.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

An impossibility result for Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling from micro-canonical bipartite graph ensembles

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used to sample from graph ensembles. Two graphs are neighbors in the state space if one can be obtained from the other with only a few modifications, e.g., edge rewirings. For many common ensembles, e.g., those preserving the degree sequences of bipartite graphs, rewiring operations involving two edges are sufficient to create a fully-connected state space, and they can be performed efficiently. We show that, for ensembles of bipartite graphs with fixed degree sequences and number of butterflies (k2,2 bi-cliques), there is no universal constant c such that a rewiring of at most c edges at every step is sufficient for any such ensemble to be fully connected. Our proof relies on an explicit construction of a family of pairs of graphs with the same degree sequences and number of butterflies, with each pair indexed by a natural c, and such that any sequence of rewiring operations transforming one graph into the other must include at least one rewiring operation involving at least c edges. Whether rewiring these many edges is sufficient to guarantee the full connectivity of the state space of any such ensemble remains an open question. Our result implies the impossibility of developing efficient, graph-agnostic, MCMC algorithms for these ensembles, as the necessity to rewire an impractically large number of edges may hinder taking a step on the state space.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Moral Judgments in Online Discourse are not Biased by Gender

The interaction between social norms and gender roles prescribes gender-specific behaviors that influence moral judgments. Here, we study how moral judgments are biased by the gender of the protagonist of a story. Using data from r/AITA, a Reddit community with 17 million members who share first-hand experiences seeking community judgment on their behavior, we employ machine learning techniques to match stories describing similar situations that differ only by the protagonist's gender. We find no direct causal effect of the protagonist's gender on the received moral judgments, except for stories about ``friendship and relationships'', where male protagonists receive more negative judgments. Our findings complement existing correlational studies and suggest that gender roles may exert greater influence in specific social contexts. These results have implications for understanding sociological constructs and highlight potential biases in data used to train large language models.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Systematic discrepancies in the delivery of political ads on Facebook and Instagram

Political advertising on social media has become a central element in election campaigns. However, granular information about political advertising on social media was previously unavailable, thus raising concerns regarding fairness, accountability, and transparency in the electoral process. In this paper, we analyze targeted political advertising on social media via a unique, large-scale dataset of over 80000 political ads from Meta during the 2021 German federal election, with more than 1.1 billion impressions. For each political ad, our dataset records granular information about targeting strategies, spending, and actual impressions. We then study (i) the prevalence of targeted ads across the political spectrum; (ii) the discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences due to algorithmic ad delivery; and (iii) which targeting strategies on social media attain a wide reach at low cost. We find that targeted ads are prevalent across the entire political spectrum. Moreover, there are considerable discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences, and systematic differences in the reach of political ads (in impressions-per-EUR) among parties, where the algorithm favors ads from populists over others.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

What we can learn from TikTok through its Research API

TikTok is a social media platform that has gained immense popularity over the last few years, particularly among younger demographics, due to the viral trends and challenges shared worldwide. The recent release of a free Research API opens the door to collecting data on posted videos, associated comments, and user activities. Our study focuses on evaluating the reliability of the results returned by the Research API, by collecting and analyzing a random sample of TikTok videos posted in a span of 6 years. Our preliminary results are instrumental for future research that aims to study the platform, highlighting caveats on the geographical distribution of videos and on the global prevalence of viral and conspiratorial hashtags.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Hyper-distance Oracles in Hypergraphs

We study point-to-point distance estimation in hypergraphs, where the query is parameterized by a positive integer s, which defines the required level of overlap for two hyperedges to be considered adjacent. To answer s-distance queries, we first explore an oracle based on the line graph of the given hypergraph and discuss its limitations: the main one is that the line graph is typically orders of magnitude larger than the original hypergraph. We then introduce HypED, a landmark-based oracle with a predefined size, built directly on the hypergraph, thus avoiding constructing the line graph. Our framework allows to approximately answer vertex-to-vertex, vertex-to-hyperedge, and hyperedge-to-hyperedge s-distance queries for any value of s. A key observation at the basis of our framework is that, as s increases, the hypergraph becomes more fragmented. We show how this can be exploited to improve the placement of landmarks, by identifying the s-connected components of the hypergraph. For this task, we devise an efficient algorithm based on the union-find technique and a dynamic inverted index. We experimentally evaluate HypED on several real-world hypergraphs and prove its versatility in answering s-distance queries for different values of s. Our framework allows answering such queries in fractions of a millisecond, while allowing fine-grained control of the trade-off between index size and approximation error at creation time. Finally, we prove the usefulness of the s-distance oracle in two applications, namely, hypergraph-based recommendation and the approximation of the s-closeness centrality of vertices and hyper-edges in the context of protein-to-protein interactions.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2024

Extracting the Multiscale Causal Backbone of Brain Dynamics

The bulk of the research effort on brain connectivity revolves around statistical associations among brain regions, which do not directly relate to the causal mechanisms governing brain dynamics. Here we propose the multiscale causal backbone (MCB) of brain dynamics, shared by a set of individuals across multiple temporal scales, and devise a principled methodology to extract it. Our approach leverages recent advances in multiscale causal structure learning and optimizes the trade-off between the model fit and its complexity. Empirical assessment on synthetic data shows the superiority of our methodology over a baseline based on canonical functional connectivity networks. When applied to resting-state fMRI data, we find sparse MCBs for both the left and right brain hemispheres. Thanks to its multiscale nature, our approach shows that at low-frequency bands, causal dynamics are driven by brain regions associated with high-level cognitive functions; at higher frequencies instead, nodes related to sensory processing play a crucial role. Finally, our analysis of individual multiscale causal structures confirms the existence of a causal fingerprint of brain connectivity, thus supporting the existing extensive research in brain connectivity fingerprinting from a causal perspective.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Navigating Multidimensional Ideologies with Reddit's Political Compass: Economic Conflict and Social Affinity

The prevalent perspective in quantitative research on opinion dynamics flattens the landscape of the online political discourse into a traditional left--right dichotomy. While this approach helps simplify the analysis and modeling effort, it also neglects the intrinsic multidimensional richness of ideologies. In this study, we analyze social interactions on Reddit, under the lens of a multi-dimensional ideological framework: the political compass. We examine over 8 million comments posted on the subreddits /r/PoliticalCompass and /r/PoliticalCompassMemes during 2020--2022. By leveraging their self-declarations, we disentangle the ideological dimensions of users into economic (left--right) and social (libertarian--authoritarian) axes. In addition, we characterize users by their demographic attributes (age, gender, and affluence). We find significant homophily for interactions along the social axis of the political compass and demographic attributes. Compared to a null model, interactions among individuals of similar ideology surpass expectations by 6%. In contrast, we uncover a significant heterophily along the economic axis: left/right interactions exceed expectations by 10%. Furthermore, heterophilic interactions are characterized by a higher language toxicity than homophilic interactions, which hints at a conflictual discourse between every opposite ideology. Our results help reconcile apparent contradictions in recent literature, which found a superposition of homophilic and heterophilic interactions in online political discussions. By disentangling such interactions into the economic and social axes we pave the way for a deeper understanding of opinion dynamics on social media.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Learning Multiscale Non-stationary Causal Structures

This paper addresses a gap in the current state of the art by providing a solution for modeling causal relationships that evolve over time and occur at different time scales. Specifically, we introduce the multiscale non-stationary directed acyclic graph (MN-DAG), a framework for modeling multivariate time series data. Our contribution is twofold. Firstly, we expose a probabilistic generative model by leveraging results from spectral and causality theories. Our model allows sampling an MN-DAG according to user-specified priors on the time-dependence and multiscale properties of the causal graph. Secondly, we devise a Bayesian method named Multiscale Non-stationary Causal Structure Learner (MN-CASTLE) that uses stochastic variational inference to estimate MN-DAGs. The method also exploits information from the local partial correlation between time series over different time resolutions. The data generated from an MN-DAG reproduces well-known features of time series in different domains, such as volatility clustering and serial correlation. Additionally, we show the superior performance of MN-CASTLE on synthetic data with different multiscale and non-stationary properties compared to baseline models. Finally, we apply MN-CASTLE to identify the drivers of the natural gas prices in the US market. Causal relationships have strengthened during the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a fact that baseline methods fail to capture. MN-CASTLE identifies the causal impact of critical economic drivers on natural gas prices, such as seasonal factors, economic uncertainty, oil prices, and gas storage deviations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Likelihood-Based Methods Improve Parameter Estimation in Opinion Dynamics Models

We show that a maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation in agent-based models (ABMs) of opinion dynamics outperforms the typical simulation-based approach. Simulation-based approaches simulate the model repeatedly in search of a set of parameters that generates data similar enough to the observed one. In contrast, likelihood-based approaches derive a likelihood function that connects the unknown parameters to the observed data in a statistically principled way. We compare these two approaches on the well-known bounded-confidence model of opinion dynamics. We do so on three realistic scenarios of increasing complexity depending on data availability: (i) fully observed opinions and interactions, (ii) partially observed interactions, (iii) observed interactions with noisy proxies of the opinions. We highlight how identifying observed and latent variables is fundamental for connecting the model to the data. To realize the likelihood-based approach, we first cast the model into a probabilistic generative guise that supports a proper data likelihood. Then, we describe the three scenarios via probabilistic graphical models and show the nuances that go into translating the model. Finally, we implement the resulting probabilistic models in an automatic differentiation framework (PyTorch). This step enables easy and efficient maximum likelihood estimation via gradient descent. Our experimental results show that the maximum likelihood estimates are up to 4x more accurate and require up to 200x less computational time.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Evidence of Demographic rather than Ideological Segregation in News Discussion on Reddit

We evaluate homophily and heterophily among ideological and demographic groups in a typical opinion formation context: online discussions of current news. We analyze user interactions across five years in the r/news community on Reddit, one of the most visited websites in the United States. Then, we estimate demographic and ideological attributes of these users. Thanks to a comparison with a carefully-crafted network null model, we establish which pairs of attributes foster interactions and which ones inhibit them. Individuals prefer to engage with the opposite ideological side, which contradicts the echo chamber narrative. Instead, demographic groups are homophilic, as individuals tend to interact within their own group - even in an online setting where such attributes are not directly observable. In particular, we observe age and income segregation consistently across years: users tend to avoid interactions when belonging to different groups. These results persist after controlling for the degree of interest by each demographic group in different news topics. Our findings align with the theory that affective polarization - the difficulty in socializing across political boundaries-is more connected with an increasingly divided society, rather than ideological echo chambers on social media. We publicly release our anonymized data set and all the code to reproduce our results: https://github.com/corradomonti/demographic-homophily

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Authority without Care: Moral Values behind the Mask Mandate Response

Face masks are one of the cheapest and most effective non-pharmaceutical interventions available against airborne diseases such as COVID-19. Unfortunately, they have been met with resistance by a substantial fraction of the populace, especially in the U.S. In this study, we uncover the latent moral values that underpin the response to the mask mandate, and paint them against the country's political backdrop. We monitor the discussion about masks on Twitter, which involves almost 600k users in a time span of 7 months. By using a combination of graph mining, natural language processing, topic modeling, content analysis, and time series analysis, we characterize the responses to the mask mandate of both those in favor and against them. We base our analysis on the theoretical frameworks of Moral Foundation Theory and Hofstede's cultural dimensions. Our results show that, while the anti-mask stance is associated with a conservative political leaning, the moral values expressed by its adherents diverge from the ones typically used by conservatives. In particular, the expected emphasis on the values of authority and purity is accompanied by an atypical dearth of in-group loyalty. We find that after the mandate, both pro- and anti-mask sides decrease their emphasis on care about others, and increase their attention on authority and fairness, further politicizing the issue. In addition, the mask mandate reverses the expression of Individualism-Collectivism between the two sides, with an increase of individualism in the anti-mask narrative, and a decrease in the pro-mask one. We argue that monitoring the dynamics of moral positioning is crucial for designing effective public health campaigns that are sensitive to the underlying values of the target audience.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

The Thin Ideology of Populist Advertising on Facebook during the 2019 EU Elections

Social media has been an important tool in the expansion of the populist message, and it is thought to have contributed to the electoral success of populist parties in the past decade. This study compares how populist parties advertised on Facebook during the 2019 European Parliamentary election. In particular, we examine commonalities and differences in which audiences they reach and on which issues they focus. By using data from Meta (previously Facebook) Ad Library, we analyze 45k ad campaigns by 39 parties, both populist and mainstream, in Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Poland. While populist parties represent just over 20% of the total expenditure on political ads, they account for 40% of the total impressions$\unicode{x2013}$most of which from Eurosceptic and far-right parties$\unicode{x2013}$thus hinting at a competitive advantage for populist parties on Facebook. We further find that ads posted by populist parties are more likely to reach male audiences, and sometimes much older ones. In terms of issues, populist politicians focus on monetary policy, state bureaucracy and reforms, and security, while the focus on EU and Brexit is on par with non-populist, mainstream parties. However, issue preferences are largely country-specific, thus supporting the view in political science that populism is a "thin ideology", that does not have a universal, coherent policy agenda. This study illustrates the usefulness of publicly available advertising data for monitoring the populist outreach to, and engagement with, millions of potential voters, while outlining the limitations of currently available data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

On learning agent-based models from data

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are used in several fields to study the evolution of complex systems from micro-level assumptions. However, ABMs typically can not estimate agent-specific (or "micro") variables: this is a major limitation which prevents ABMs from harnessing micro-level data availability and which greatly limits their predictive power. In this paper, we propose a protocol to learn the latent micro-variables of an ABM from data. The first step of our protocol is to reduce an ABM to a probabilistic model, characterized by a computationally tractable likelihood. This reduction follows two general design principles: balance of stochasticity and data availability, and replacement of unobservable discrete choices with differentiable approximations. Then, our protocol proceeds by maximizing the likelihood of the latent variables via a gradient-based expectation maximization algorithm. We demonstrate our protocol by applying it to an ABM of the housing market, in which agents with different incomes bid higher prices to live in high-income neighborhoods. We demonstrate that the obtained model allows accurate estimates of the latent variables, while preserving the general behavior of the ABM. We also show that our estimates can be used for out-of-sample forecasting. Our protocol can be seen as an alternative to black-box data assimilation methods, that forces the modeler to lay bare the assumptions of the model, to think about the inferential process, and to spot potential identification problems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

The language of opinion change on social media under the lens of communicative action

Which messages are more effective at inducing a change of opinion in the listener? We approach this question within the frame of Habermas' theory of communicative action, which posits that the illocutionary intent of the message (its pragmatic meaning) is the key. Thanks to recent advances in natural language processing, we are able to operationalize this theory by extracting the latent social dimensions of a message, namely archetypes of social intent of language, that come from social exchange theory. We identify key ingredients to opinion change by looking at more than 46k posts and more than 3.5M comments on Reddit's r/ChangeMyView, a debate forum where people try to change each other's opinion and explicitly mark opinion-changing comments with a special flag called "delta". Comments that express no intent are about 77% less likely to change the mind of the recipient, compared to comments that convey at least one social dimension. Among the various social dimensions, the ones that are most likely to produce an opinion change are knowledge, similarity, and trust, which resonates with Habermas' theory of communicative action. We also find other new important dimensions, such as appeals to power or empathetic expressions of support. Finally, in line with theories of constructive conflict, yet contrary to the popular characterization of conflict as the bane of modern social media, our findings show that voicing conflict in the context of a structured public debate can promote integration, especially when it is used to counter another conflictive stance. By leveraging recent advances in natural language processing, our work provides an empirical framework for Habermas' theory, finds concrete examples of its effects in the wild, and suggests its possible extension with a more faceted understanding of intent interpreted as social dimensions of language.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

On the Relation Between Opinion Change and Information Consumption on Reddit

While much attention has been devoted to the causes of opinion change, little is known about its consequences. Our study sheds a light on the relationship between one user's opinion change episode and subsequent behavioral change on an online social media, Reddit. In particular, we look at r/ChangeMyView, an online community dedicated to debating one's own opinions. Interestingly, this forum adopts a well-codified schema for explicitly self-reporting opinion change. Starting from this ground truth, we analyze changes in future online information consumption behavior that arise after a self-reported opinion change on sociopolitical topics; and in particular, operationalized in this work as the participation to sociopolitical subreddits. Such participation profile is important as it represents one's information diet, and is a reliable proxy for, e.g., political affiliation or health choices. We find that people who report an opinion change are significantly more likely to change their future participation in a specific subset of online communities. We characterize which communities are more likely to be abandoned after opinion change, and find a significant association (r=0.46) between propaganda-like language used in a community and the increase in chances of leaving it. We find comparable results (r=0.39) for the opposite direction, i.e., joining a community. This finding suggests how propagandistic communities act as a first gateway to internalize a shift in one's sociopolitical opinion. Finally, we show that the textual content of the discussion associated with opinion change is indicative of which communities are going to be subject to a participation change. In fact, a predictive model based only on the opinion change post is able to pinpoint these communities with an AP@5 of 0.20, similar to what can be reached by using all the past history of participation in communities.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Modeling Political Activism around Gun Debate via Social Media

The United States have some of the highest rates of gun violence among developed countries. Yet, there is a disagreement about the extent to which firearms should be regulated. In this study, we employ social media signals to examine the predictors of offline political activism, at both population and individual level. We show that it is possible to classify the stance of users on the gun issue, especially accurately when network information is available. Alongside socioeconomic variables, network information such as the relative size of the two sides of the debate is also predictive of state-level gun policy. On individual level, we build a statistical model using network, content, and psycho-linguistic features that predicts real-life political action, and explore the most predictive linguistic features. Thus, we argue that, alongside demographics and socioeconomic indicators, social media provides useful signals in the holistic modeling of political engagement around the gun debate.

cs.SI↗