arXiv subjects

Gianmarco De Francisci Morales

Publications and source records attributed to Gianmarco De Francisci Morales.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

FreSCo: Mining Frequent Patterns in Simplicial Complexes

Simplicial complexes are a generalization of graphs that model higher-order relations. In this paper, we introduce simplicial patterns -- that we call simplets -- and generalize the task of frequent pattern mining from the realm of graphs to that of simplicial complexes. Our task is particularly challenging due to the enormous search space and the need for higher-order isomorphism. We show that finding the occurrences of simplets in a complex can be reduced to a bipartite graph isomorphism problem, in linear time and at most quadratic space. We then propose an anti-monotonic frequency measure that allows us to start the exploration from small simplets and stop expanding a simplet as soon as its frequency falls below the minimum frequency threshold. Equipped with these ideas and a clever data structure, we develop a memory-conscious algorithm that, by carefully exploiting the relationships among the simplices in the complex and among the simplets, achieves efficiency and scalability for our complex mining task. Our algorithm, FreSCo, comes in two flavors: it can compute the exact frequency of the simplets or, more quickly, it can determine whether a simplet is frequent, without having to compute the exact frequency. Experimental results prove the ability of FreSCo to mine frequent simplets in complexes of various size and dimension, and the significance of the simplets with respect to the traditional graph patterns.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2021

The Evolving Causal Structure of Equity Risk Factors

In recent years, multi-factor strategies have gained increasing popularity in the financial industry, as they allow investors to have a better understanding of the risk drivers underlying their portfolios. Moreover, such strategies promise to promote diversification and thus limit losses in times of financial turmoil. However, recent studies have reported a significant level of redundancy between these factors, which might enhance risk contagion among multi-factor portfolios during financial crises. Therefore, it is of fundamental importance to better understand the relationships among factors. Empowered by recent advances in causal structure learning methods, this paper presents a study of the causal structure of financial risk factors and its evolution over time. In particular, the data we analyze covers 11 risk factors concerning the US equity market, spanning a period of 29 years at daily frequency. Our results show a statistically significant sparsifying trend of the underlying causal structure. However, this trend breaks down during periods of financial stress, in which we can observe a densification of the causal network driven by a growth of the out-degree of the market factor node. Finally, we present a comparison with the analysis of factors cross-correlations, which further confirms the importance of causal analysis for gaining deeper insights in the dynamics of the factor system, particularly during economic downturns. Our findings are especially significant from a risk-management perspective. They link the evolution of the causal structure of equity risk factors with market volatility and a worsening macroeconomic environment, and show that, in times of financial crisis, exposure to different factors boils down to exposure to the market risk factor.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2021

From Reddit to Wall Street: The role of committed minorities in financial collective action

In January 2021, retail investors coordinated on Reddit to target short selling activity by hedge funds on GameStop shares, causing a surge in the share price and triggering significant losses for the funds involved. Such an effective collective action was unprecedented in finance, and its dynamics remain unclear. Here, we analyse Reddit and financial data and rationalise the events based on recent findings describing how a small fraction of committed individuals may trigger behavioural cascades. First, we operationalise the concept of individual commitment in financial discussions. Second, we show that the increase of commitment within Reddit predated the initial surge in price. Third, we reveal that initial committed users occupied a central position in the network of Reddit conversations. Finally, we show that the social identity of the broader Reddit community grew as the collective action unfolded. These findings shed light on financial collective action, as several observers anticipate it will grow in importance.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Clandestino or Rifugiato? Anti-immigration Facebook Ad Targeting in Italy

Monitoring advertising around controversial issues is an important step in ensuring accountability and transparency of political processes. To that end, we use the Facebook Ads Library to collect 2312 migration-related advertising campaigns in Italy over one year. Our pro- and anti-immigration classifier (F1=0.85) reveals a partisan divide among the major Italian political parties, with anti-immigration ads accounting for nearly 15M impressions. Although composing 47.6% of all migration-related ads, anti-immigration ones receive 65.2% of impressions. We estimate that about two thirds of all captured campaigns use some kind of demographic targeting by location, gender, or age. We find sharp divides by age and gender: for instance, anti-immigration ads from major parties are 17% more likely to be seen by a male user than a female. Unlike pro-migration parties, we find that anti-immigration ones reach a similar demographic to their own voters. However their audience change with topic: an ad from anti-immigration parties is 24% more likely to be seen by a male user when the ad speaks about migration, than if it does not. Furthermore, the viewership of such campaigns tends to follow the volume of mainstream news around immigration, supporting the theory that political advertisers try to "ride the wave" of current news. We conclude with policy implications for political communication: since the Facebook Ads Library does not allow to distinguish between advertisers intentions and algorithmic targeting, we argue that more details should be shared by platforms regarding the targeting configuration of socio-political campaigns.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

STruD: Truss Decomposition of Simplicial Complexes

A simplicial complex is a generalization of a graph: a collection of n-ary relationships (instead of binary as the edges of a graph), named simplices. In this paper, we develop a new tool to study the structure of simplicial complexes: we generalize the graph notion of truss decomposition to complexes, and show that this more powerful representation gives rise to different properties compared to the graph-based one. This power, however, comes with important computational challenges derived from the combinatorial explosion caused by the downward closure property of complexes. Drawing upon ideas from itemset mining and similarity search, we design a memory-aware algorithm, dubbed STruD, which is able to efficiently compute the truss decomposition of a simplicial complex. STruD adapts its behavior to the amount of available memory by storing intermediate data in a compact way. We then devise a variant that computes directly the n simplices of maximum trussness. By applying STruD to several datasets, we prove its scalability, and provide an analysis of their structure. Finally, we show that the truss decomposition can be seen as a filtration, and as such it can be used to study the persistent homology of a dataset, a method for computing topological features at different spatial resolutions, prominent in Topological Data Analysis.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

No Echo in the Chambers of Political Interactions on Reddit

Echo chambers in online social networks, whereby users' beliefs are reinforced by interactions with like-minded peers and insulation from others' points of view, have been decried as a cause of political polarization. Here, we investigate their role in the debate around the 2016 US elections on Reddit, a fundamental platform for the success of Donald Trump. We identify Trump vs Clinton supporters and reconstruct their political interaction network. We observe a preference for cross-cutting political interactions between the two communities rather than within-group interactions, thus contradicting the echo chamber narrative. Furthermore, these interactions are asymmetrical: Clinton supporters are particularly eager to answer comments by Trump supporters. Beside asymmetric heterophily, users show assortative behavior for activity, and disassortative, asymmetric behavior for popularity. Our findings are tested against a null model of random interactions, by using two different approaches: a network rewiring which preserves the activity of nodes, and a logit regression which takes into account possible confounding factors. Finally, we explore possible socio-demographic implications. Users show a tendency for geographical homophily and a small positive correlation between cross-interactions and voter abstention. Our findings shed light on public opinion formation on social media, calling for a better understanding of the social dynamics at play in this context.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Facebook Ads: Politics of Migration in Italy

Targeted online advertising is on the forefront of political communication, allowing hyper-local advertising campaigns around elections and issues. In this study, we employ a new resource for political ad monitoring -- Facebook Ads Library -- to examine advertising concerning the issue of immigration in Italy. A crucial topic in Italian politics, it has recently been a focus of several populist movements, some of which have adopted social media as a powerful tool for voter engagement. Indeed, we find evidence of targeting by the parties both in terms of geography and demographics (age and gender). For instance, Five Star Movement reaches a younger audience when advertising about immigration, while other parties' ads have a more male audience when advertising on this issue. We also notice a marked rise in advertising volume around elections, as well as a shift to more general audience. Thus, we illustrate political advertising targeting that likely has an impact on public opinion on a topic involving potentially vulnerable populations, and urge the research community to include online advertising in the monitoring of public discourse.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Link Prediction via Higher-Order Motif Features

Link prediction requires predicting which new links are likely to appear in a graph. Being able to predict unseen links with good accuracy has important applications in several domains such as social media, security, transportation, and recommendation systems. A common approach is to use features based on the common neighbors of an unconnected pair of nodes to predict whether the pair will form a link in the future. In this paper, we present an approach for link prediction that relies on higher-order analysis of the graph topology, well beyond common neighbors. We treat the link prediction problem as a supervised classification problem, and we propose a set of features that depend on the patterns or motifs that a pair of nodes occurs in. By using motifs of sizes 3, 4, and 5, our approach captures a high level of detail about the graph topology within the neighborhood of the pair of nodes, which leads to a higher classification accuracy. In addition to proposing the use of motif-based features, we also propose two optimizations related to constructing the classification dataset from the graph. First, to ensure that positive and negative examples are treated equally when extracting features, we propose adding the negative examples to the graph as an alternative to the common approach of removing the positive ones. Second, we show that it is important to control for the shortest-path distance when sampling pairs of nodes to form negative examples, since the difficulty of prediction varies with the shortest-path distance. We experimentally demonstrate that using off-the-shelf classifiers with a well constructed classification dataset results in up to 10 percentage points increase in accuracy over prior topology-based and feature learning methods.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Learning Opinion Dynamics From Social Traces

Opinion dynamics - the research field dealing with how people's opinions form and evolve in a social context - traditionally uses agent-based models to validate the implications of sociological theories. These models encode the causal mechanism that drives the opinion formation process, and have the advantage of being easy to interpret. However, as they do not exploit the availability of data, their predictive power is limited. Moreover, parameter calibration and model selection are manual and difficult tasks. In this work we propose an inference mechanism for fitting a generative, agent-like model of opinion dynamics to real-world social traces. Given a set of observables (e.g., actions and interactions between agents), our model can recover the most-likely latent opinion trajectories that are compatible with the assumptions about the process dynamics. This type of model retains the benefits of agent-based ones (i.e., causal interpretation), while adding the ability to perform model selection and hypothesis testing on real data. We showcase our proposal by translating a classical agent-based model of opinion dynamics into its generative counterpart. We then design an inference algorithm based on online expectation maximization to learn the latent parameters of the model. Such algorithm can recover the latent opinion trajectories from traces generated by the classical agent-based model. In addition, it can identify the most likely set of macro parameters used to generate a data trace, thus allowing testing of sociological hypotheses. Finally, we apply our model to real-world data from Reddit to explore the long-standing question about the impact of backfire effect. Our results suggest a low prominence of the effect in Reddit's political conversation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Roots of Trumpism: Homophily and Social Feedback in Donald Trump Support on Reddit

We study the emergence of support for Donald Trump in Reddit's political discussion. With almost 800k subscribers, "r/The_Donald" is one of the largest communities on Reddit, and one of the main hubs for Trump supporters. It was created in 2015, shortly after Donald Trump began his presidential campaign. By using only data from 2012, we predict the likelihood of being a supporter of Donald Trump in 2016, the year of the last US presidential elections. To characterize the behavior of Trump supporters, we draw from three different sociological hypotheses: homophily, social influence, and social feedback. We operationalize each hypothesis as a set of features for each user, and train classifiers to predict their participation in r/The_Donald. We find that homophily-based and social feedback-based features are the most predictive signals. Conversely, we do not observe a strong impact of social influence mechanisms. We also perform an introspection of the best-performing model to build a "persona" of the typical supporter of Donald Trump on Reddit. We find evidence that the most prominent traits include a predominance of masculine interests, a conservative and libertarian political leaning, and links with politically incorrect and conspiratorial content.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Aion: Better Late than Never in Event-Time Streams

Processing data streams in near real-time is an increasingly important task. In the case of event-timestamped data, the stream processing system must promptly handle late events that arrive after the corresponding window has been processed. To enable this late processing, the window state must be maintained for a long period of time. However, current systems maintain this state in memory, which either imposes a maximum period of tolerated lateness, or causes the system to degrade performance or even crash when the system memory runs out. In this paper, we propose AION, a comprehensive solution for handling late events in an efficient manner, implemented on top of Flink. In designing AION, we go beyond a naive solution that transfers state between memory and persistent storage on demand. In particular, we introduce a proactive caching scheme, where we leverage the semantics of stream processing to anticipate the need for bringing data to memory. Furthermore, we propose a predictive cleanup scheme to permanently discard window state based on the likelihood of receiving more late events, to prevent storage consumption from growing without bounds. Our evaluation shows that AION is capable of maintaining sustainable levels of memory utilization while still preserving high throughput, low latency, and low staleness.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2020

Echo Chambers on Social Media: A comparative analysis

Recent studies have shown that online users tend to select information adhering to their system of beliefs, ignore information that does not, and join groups - i.e., echo chambers - around a shared narrative. Although a quantitative methodology for their identification is still missing, the phenomenon of echo chambers is widely debated both at scientific and political level. To shed light on this issue, we introduce an operational definition of echo chambers and perform a massive comparative analysis on more than 1B pieces of contents produced by 1M users on four social media platforms: Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, and Gab. We infer the leaning of users about controversial topics - ranging from vaccines to abortion - and reconstruct their interaction networks by analyzing different features, such as shared links domain, followed pages, follower relationship and commented posts. Our method quantifies the existence of echo-chambers along two main dimensions: homophily in the interaction networks and bias in the information diffusion toward likely-minded peers. We find peculiar differences across social media. Indeed, while Facebook and Twitter present clear-cut echo chambers in all the observed dataset, Reddit and Gab do not. Finally, we test the role of the social media platform on news consumption by comparing Reddit and Facebook. Again, we find support for the hypothesis that platforms implementing news feed algorithms like Facebook may elicit the emergence of echo-chambers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Falling into the Echo Chamber: the Italian Vaccination Debate on Twitter

The reappearance of measles in the US and Europe, a disease considered eliminated in early 2000s, has been accompanied by a growing debate on the merits of vaccination on social media. In this study we examine the extent to which the vaccination debate on Twitter is conductive to potential outreach to the vaccination hesitant. We focus on Italy, one of the countries most affected by the latest measles outbreaks. We discover that the vaccination skeptics, as well as the advocates, reside in their own distinct "echo chambers". The structure of these communities differs as well, with skeptics arranged in a tightly connected cluster, and advocates organizing themselves around few authoritative hubs. At the center of these echo chambers we find the ardent supporters, for which we build highly accurate network- and content-based classifiers (attaining 95% cross-validated accuracy). Insights of this study provide several avenues for potential future interventions, including network-guided targeting, accounting for the political context, and monitoring of alternative sources of information.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Predicting the Role of Political Trolls in Social Media

We investigate the political roles of "Internet trolls" in social media. Political trolls, such as the ones linked to the Russian Internet Research Agency (IRA), have recently gained enormous attention for their ability to sway public opinion and even influence elections. Analysis of the online traces of trolls has shown different behavioral patterns, which target different slices of the population. However, this analysis is manual and labor-intensive, thus making it impractical as a first-response tool for newly-discovered troll farms. In this paper, we show how to automate this analysis by using machine learning in a realistic setting. In particular, we show how to classify trolls according to their political role ---left, news feed, right--- by using features extracted from social media, i.e., Twitter, in two scenarios: (i) in a traditional supervised learning scenario, where labels for trolls are available, and (ii) in a distant supervision scenario, where labels for trolls are not available, and we rely on more-commonly-available labels for news outlets mentioned by the trolls. Technically, we leverage the community structure and the text of the messages in the online social network of trolls represented as a graph, from which we extract several types of learned representations, i.e.,~embeddings, for the trolls. Experiments on the "IRA Russian Troll" dataset show that our methodology improves over the state-of-the-art in the first scenario, while providing a compelling case for the second scenario, which has not been explored in the literature thus far.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2018

Mining Frequent Patterns in Evolving Graphs

Given a labeled graph, the frequent-subgraph mining (FSM) problem asks to find all the $k$-vertex subgraphs that appear with frequency greater than a given threshold. FSM has numerous applications ranging from biology to network science, as it provides a compact summary of the characteristics of the graph. However, the task is challenging, even more so for evolving graphs due to the streaming nature of the input and the exponential time complexity of the problem. In this paper, we initiate the study of the approximate FSM problem in both incremental and fully-dynamic streaming settings, where arbitrary edges can be added or removed from the graph. For each streaming setting, we propose algorithms that can extract a high-quality approximation of the frequent $k$-vertex subgraphs for a given threshold, at any given time instance, with high probability. In contrast to the existing state-of-the-art solutions that require iterating over the entire set of subgraphs for any update, our algorithms operate by maintaining a uniform sample of $k$-vertex subgraphs with optimized neighborhood-exploration procedures local to the updates. We provide theoretical analysis of the proposed algorithms and empirically demonstrate that the proposed algorithms generate high-quality results compared to baselines.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2018

Large-Scale Learning from Data Streams with Apache SAMOA

Apache SAMOA (Scalable Advanced Massive Online Analysis) is an open-source platform for mining big data streams. Big data is defined as datasets whose size is beyond the ability of typical software tools to capture, store, manage, and analyze, due to the time and memory complexity. Apache SAMOA provides a collection of distributed streaming algorithms for the most common data mining and machine learning tasks such as classification, clustering, and regression, as well as programming abstractions to develop new algorithms. It features a pluggable architecture that allows it to run on several distributed stream processing engines such as Apache Flink, Apache Storm, and Apache Samza. Apache SAMOA is written in Java and is available at https://samoa.incubator.apache.org under the Apache Software License version 2.0.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2018

Reducing Controversy by Connecting Opposing Views

Society is often polarized by controversial issues, that split the population into groups of opposing views. When such issues emerge on social media, we often observe the creation of 'echo chambers', i.e., situations where like-minded people reinforce each other's opinion, but do not get exposed to the views of the opposing side. In this paper we study algorithmic techniques for bridging these chambers, and thus, reducing controversy. Specifically, we represent the discussion on a controversial issue with an endorsement graph, and cast our problem as an edge-recommendation problem on this graph. The goal of the recommendation is to reduce the controversy score of the graph, which is measured by a recently-developed metric based on random walks. At the same time, we take into account the acceptance probability of the recommended edge, which represents how likely the edge is to materialize in the endorsement graph. We propose a simple model based on a recently-developed user-level controversy score, that is competitive with state-of- the-art link-prediction algorithms. We thus aim at finding the edges that produce the largest reduction in the controversy score, in expectation. To solve this problem, we propose an efficient algorithm, which considers only a fraction of all the combinations of possible edges. Experimental results show that our algorithm is more efficient than a simple greedy heuristic, while producing comparable score reduction. Finally, a comparison with other state-of-the-art edge-addition algorithms shows that this problem is fundamentally different from what has been studied in the literature.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Political Discourse on Social Media: Echo Chambers, Gatekeepers, and the Price of Bipartisanship

Echo chambers, i.e., situations where one is exposed only to opinions that agree with their own, are an increasing concern for the political discourse in many democratic countries. This paper studies the phenomenon of political echo chambers on social media. We identify the two components in the phenomenon: the opinion that is shared ('echo'), and the place that allows its exposure ('chamber' --- the social network), and examine closely at how these two components interact. We define a production and consumption measure for social-media users, which captures the political leaning of the content shared and received by them. By comparing the two, we find that Twitter users are, to a large degree, exposed to political opinions that agree with their own. We also find that users who try to bridge the echo chambers, by sharing content with diverse leaning, have to pay a 'price of bipartisanship' in terms of their network centrality and content appreciation. In addition, we study the role of 'gatekeepers', users who consume content with diverse leaning but produce partisan content (with a single-sided leaning), in the formation of echo chambers. Finally, we apply these findings to the task of predicting partisans and gatekeepers from social and content features. While partisan users turn out relatively easy to identify, gatekeepers prove to be more challenging.

cs.SI↗