arXiv subjects

Guohao Shen

Publications and source records attributed to Guohao Shen.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Non-Crossing Deep Quantile Regression for Distributional Survival Prediction

In survival analysis the way covariates act on the risk of an event often differs between early and late failure times, yet hazard- and mean-based summaries collapse this variation into a single number. Quantile-based modeling instead describes the full conditional distribution on the original time scale, but existing censored-data methods are either inflexible or produce logically inconsistent crossing quantile curves. We propose a Censored Non-crossing Quantile (CNQ) framework for right-censored data that jointly estimates several conditional survival quantiles and guarantees valid ordering by construction, with flexibility supplied by Kolmogorov-Arnold and Transformer backbones, and we establish a finite-sample excess-risk bound holding jointly across all fitted quantile levels. Across 27 simulation settings and six cohorts the framework attains lower pinball loss than quantile-, hazard- and tree-based competitors whenever the conditional distribution is asymmetric, with interval coverage closer to nominal on all six. In two clinical case studies (METABRIC, breast cancer; FLCHAIN, population mortality) it recovers covariate effects that vary across the survival distribution and would be hidden by a single hazard ratio, and yields coherent individualized quantile milestones. Code: https://github.com/BIG-S2/deepcnq

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Universal scaling of many-body effects in quantum tunneling

Quantum tunneling is fundamental to diverse phenomena and underpins a wide range of modern technologies. In the study of superconducting quantum computation and high-temperature superconducting materials, tunneling on multi-particle scale is central. Recently, several cold atom experiments successfully simulated the tunneling process in a many-particle ensemble. However, the many-body nature remains largely unexplored. Here, we observe the universal scaling of many-body effects in quantum tunneling process, using a hexagonal-triangular quantum simulator with independent control of barrier, temperature and interaction. In the weak-interaction regime, the critical tunneling coefficient scales parabolically with temperature under various conditions, in contrast to the linear scaling of single-particle tunneling. By further increasing the interactions beyond the mean-field regime, the scaling exponent decreases, consistent with quantum field theory predictions. Our results address the fundamental question of how many-body effects renormalize quantum tunneling, with direct implications for correlated quantum matter and devices.

cond-mat.quant-gas↗

arXiv2026

Balancing Multimodal Domain Generalization via Gradient Modulation and Projection

Multimodal Domain Generalization (MMDG) leverages the complementary strengths of multiple modalities to enhance model generalization on unseen domains. A central challenge in multimodal learning is optimization imbalance, where modalities converge at different speeds during training. This imbalance leads to unequal gradient contributions, allowing some modalities to dominate the learning process while others lag behind. Existing balancing strategies typically regulate each modality's gradient contribution based on its classification performance on the source domain to alleviate this issue. However, relying solely on source-domain accuracy neglects a key insight in MMDG: modalities that excel on the source domain may generalize poorly to unseen domains, limiting cross-domain gains. To overcome this limitation, we propose Gradient Modulation Projection (GMP), a unified strategy that promotes balanced optimization in MMDG. GMP first decouples gradients associated with classification and domain-invariance objectives. It then modulates each modality's gradient based on semantic and domain confidence. Moreover, GMP dynamically adjusts gradient projections by tracking the relative strength of each task, mitigating conflicts between classification and domain-invariant learning within modality-specific encoders. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GMP achieves state-of-the-art performance and integrates flexibly with diverse MMDG methods, significantly improving generalization across multiple benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Conditional Stochastic Interpolation for Generative Learning

We propose a conditional stochastic interpolation (CSI) method for learning conditional distributions. CSI is based on estimating probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations that transport a reference distribution to the target conditional distribution. This is achieved by first learning the conditional drift and score functions based on CSI, which are then used to construct a deterministic process governed by an ordinary differential equation or a diffusion process for conditional sampling. In our proposed approach, we incorporate an adaptive diffusion term to address the instability issues arising in the diffusion process. We derive explicit expressions of the conditional drift and score functions in terms of conditional expectations, which naturally lead to an nonparametric regression approach to estimating these functions. Furthermore, we establish nonasymptotic error bounds for learning the target conditional distribution. We illustrate the application of CSI on image generation using a benchmark image dataset.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Conformal Set-based Human-AI Complementarity with Multiple Experts

Decision support systems are designed to assist human experts in classification tasks by providing conformal prediction sets derived from a pre-trained model. This human-AI collaboration has demonstrated enhanced classification performance compared to using either the model or the expert independently. In this study, we focus on the selection of instance-specific experts from a pool of multiple human experts, contrasting it with existing research that typically focuses on single-expert scenarios. We characterize the conditions under which multiple experts can benefit from the conformal sets. With the insight that only certain experts may be relevant for each instance, we explore the problem of subset selection and introduce a greedy algorithm that utilizes conformal sets to identify the subset of expert predictions that will be used in classifying an instance. This approach is shown to yield better performance compared to naive methods for human subset selection. Based on real expert predictions from the CIFAR-10H and ImageNet-16H datasets, our simulation study indicates that our proposed greedy algorithm achieves near-optimal subsets, resulting in improved classification performance among multiple experts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Learning Guarantee of Reward Modeling Using Deep Neural Networks

In this work, we study the learning theory of reward modeling with pairwise comparison data using deep neural networks. We establish a novel non-asymptotic regret bound for deep reward estimators in a non-parametric setting, which depends explicitly on the network architecture. Furthermore, to underscore the critical importance of clear human beliefs, we introduce a margin-type condition that assumes the conditional winning probability of the optimal action in pairwise comparisons is significantly distanced from 1/2. This condition enables a sharper regret bound, which substantiates the empirical efficiency of Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback and highlights clear human beliefs in its success. Notably, this improvement stems from high-quality pairwise comparison data implied by the margin-type condition, is independent of the specific estimators used, and thus applies to various learning algorithms and models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Deep Distributional Learning with Non-crossing Quantile Network

In this paper, we introduce a non-crossing quantile (NQ) network for conditional distribution learning. By leveraging non-negative activation functions, the NQ network ensures that the learned distributions remain monotonic, effectively addressing the issue of quantile crossing. Furthermore, the NQ network-based deep distributional learning framework is highly adaptable, applicable to a wide range of applications, from classical non-parametric quantile regression to more advanced tasks such as causal effect estimation and distributional reinforcement learning (RL). We also develop a comprehensive theoretical foundation for the deep NQ estimator and its application to distributional RL, providing an in-depth analysis that demonstrates its effectiveness across these domains. Our experimental results further highlight the robustness and versatility of the NQ network.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Deep Neural Newsvendor

We consider a data-driven newsvendor problem, where one has access to past demand data and the associated feature information. We solve the problem by estimating the target quantile function using a deep neural network (DNN). The remarkable representational power of DNN allows our framework to incorporate or approximate various extant data-driven models. We provide theoretical guarantees in terms of excess risk bounds for the DNN solution characterized by the network structure and sample size in a non-asymptotic manner, which justify the applicability of DNNs in the relevant contexts. Specifically, the convergence rate of the excess risk bound with respect to the sample size increases in the smoothness of the target quantile function but decreases in the dimension of feature variables. This rate can be further accelerated when the target function possesses a composite structure. In particular, our theoretical framework can be extended to accommodate the data-dependent scenarios, where the data-generating process could be time-dependent but not necessarily identical over time. Building on our theoretical results, we provide further managerial insights and practical guidance through simulation studies. Finally, we apply the DNN method to a real-world dataset obtained from a food supermarket. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that (1) the DNN method consistently outperforms other alternatives across a wide range of cost parameters, and (2) it exhibits good performance when the sample size is either very large or relatively limited.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Exploring the Complexity of Deep Neural Networks through Functional Equivalence

We investigate the complexity of deep neural networks through the lens of functional equivalence, which posits that different parameterizations can yield the same network function. Leveraging the equivalence property, we present a novel bound on the covering number for deep neural networks, which reveals that the complexity of neural networks can be reduced. Additionally, we demonstrate that functional equivalence benefits optimization, as overparameterized networks tend to be easier to train since increasing network width leads to a diminishing volume of the effective parameter space. These findings can offer valuable insights into the phenomenon of overparameterization and have implications for understanding generalization and optimization in deep learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Differentiable Neural Networks with RePU Activation: with Applications to Score Estimation and Isotonic Regression

We study the properties of differentiable neural networks activated by rectified power unit (RePU) functions. We show that the partial derivatives of RePU neural networks can be represented by RePUs mixed-activated networks and derive upper bounds for the complexity of the function class of derivatives of RePUs networks. We establish error bounds for simultaneously approximating $C^s$ smooth functions and their derivatives using RePU-activated deep neural networks. Furthermore, we derive improved approximation error bounds when data has an approximate low-dimensional support, demonstrating the ability of RePU networks to mitigate the curse of dimensionality. To illustrate the usefulness of our results, we consider a deep score matching estimator (DSME) and propose a penalized deep isotonic regression (PDIR) using RePU networks. We establish non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for DSME and PDIR under the assumption that the target functions belong to a class of $C^s$ smooth functions. We also show that PDIR achieves the minimax optimal convergence rate and has a robustness property in the sense it is consistent with vanishing penalty parameters even when the monotonicity assumption is not satisfied. Furthermore, if the data distribution is supported on an approximate low-dimensional manifold, we show that DSME and PDIR can mitigate the curse of dimensionality.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Wasserstein Generative Regression

In this paper, we propose a new and unified approach for nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning. Our approach simultaneously estimates a regression function and a conditional generator using a generative learning framework, where a conditional generator is a function that can generate samples from a conditional distribution. The main idea is to estimate a conditional generator that satisfies the constraint that it produces a good regression function estimator. We use deep neural networks to model the conditional generator. Our approach can handle problems with multivariate outcomes and covariates, and can be used to construct prediction intervals. We provide theoretical guarantees by deriving non-asymptotic error bounds and the distributional consistency of our approach under suitable assumptions. We also perform numerical experiments with simulated and real data to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our approach over some existing approaches in various scenarios.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Deep Nonparametric Regression on Approximate Manifolds: Non-Asymptotic Error Bounds with Polynomial Prefactors

We study the properties of nonparametric least squares regression using deep neural networks. We derive non-asymptotic upper bounds for the prediction error of the empirical risk minimizer of feedforward deep neural regression. Our error bounds achieve minimax optimal rate and significantly improve over the existing ones in the sense that they depend polynomially on the dimension of the predictor, instead of exponentially on dimension. We show that the neural regression estimator can circumvent the curse of dimensionality under the assumption that the predictor is supported on an approximate low-dimensional manifold or a set with low Minkowski dimension. We also establish the optimal convergence rate under the exact manifold support assumption. We investigate how the prediction error of the neural regression estimator depends on the structure of neural networks and propose a notion of network relative efficiency between two types of neural networks, which provides a quantitative measure for evaluating the relative merits of different network structures. To establish these results, we derive a novel approximation error bound for the Hölder smooth functions with a positive smoothness index using ReLU activated neural networks, which may be of independent interest. Our results are derived under weaker assumptions on the data distribution and the neural network structure than those in the existing literature.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Nonparametric Quantile Regression: Non-Crossing Constraints and Conformal Prediction

We propose a nonparametric quantile regression method using deep neural networks with a rectified linear unit penalty function to avoid quantile crossing. This penalty function is computationally feasible for enforcing non-crossing constraints in multi-dimensional nonparametric quantile regression. We establish non-asymptotic upper bounds for the excess risk of the proposed nonparametric quantile regression function estimators. Our error bounds achieve optimal minimax rate of convergence for the Holder class, and the prefactors of the error bounds depend polynomially on the dimension of the predictor, instead of exponentially. Based on the proposed non-crossing penalized deep quantile regression, we construct conformal prediction intervals that are fully adaptive to heterogeneity. The proposed prediction interval is shown to have good properties in terms of validity and accuracy under reasonable conditions. We also derive non-asymptotic upper bounds for the difference of the lengths between the proposed non-crossing conformal prediction interval and the theoretically oracle prediction interval. Numerical experiments including simulation studies and a real data example are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Estimation of Non-Crossing Quantile Regression Process with Deep ReQU Neural Networks

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating $C^s$ smooth functions with $s >0$ and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Deep Quantile Regression: Mitigating the Curse of Dimensionality Through Composition

This paper considers the problem of nonparametric quantile regression under the assumption that the target conditional quantile function is a composition of a sequence of low-dimensional functions. We study the nonparametric quantile regression estimator using deep neural networks to approximate the target conditional quantile function. For convenience, we shall refer to such an estimator as a deep quantile regression (DQR) estimator. We show that the DQR estimator achieves the nonparametric optimal convergence rate up to a logarithmic factor determined by the intrinsic dimension of the underlying compositional structure of the conditional quantile function, not the ambient dimension of the predictor. Therefore, DQR is able to mitigate the curse of dimensionality under the assumption that the conditional quantile function has a compositional structure. To establish these results, we analyze the approximation error of a composite function by neural networks and show that the error rate only depends on the dimensions of the component functions. We apply our general results to several important statistical models often used in mitigating the curse of dimensionality, including the single index, the additive, the projection pursuit, the univariate composite, and the generalized hierarchical interaction models. We explicitly describe the prefactors in the error bounds in terms of the dimensionality of the data and show that the prefactors depends on the dimensionality linearly or quadratically in these models. We also conduct extensive numerical experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of DQR and demonstrate that it outperforms a kernel-based method for nonparametric quantile regression.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Robust Nonparametric Regression with Deep Neural Networks

In this paper, we study the properties of robust nonparametric estimation using deep neural networks for regression models with heavy tailed error distributions. We establish the non-asymptotic error bounds for a class of robust nonparametric regression estimators using deep neural networks with ReLU activation under suitable smoothness conditions on the regression function and mild conditions on the error term. In particular, we only assume that the error distribution has a finite p-th moment with p greater than one. We also show that the deep robust regression estimators are able to circumvent the curse of dimensionality when the distribution of the predictor is supported on an approximate lower-dimensional set. An important feature of our error bound is that, for ReLU neural networks with network width and network size (number of parameters) no more than the order of the square of the dimensionality d of the predictor, our excess risk bounds depend sub-linearly on d. Our assumption relaxes the exact manifold support assumption, which could be restrictive and unrealistic in practice. We also relax several crucial assumptions on the data distribution, the target regression function and the neural networks required in the recent literature. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the robust methods can significantly outperform the least squares method when the errors have heavy-tailed distributions and illustrate that the choice of loss function is important in the context of deep nonparametric regression.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Non-asymptotic Excess Risk Bounds for Classification with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

In this paper, we consider the problem of binary classification with a class of general deep convolutional neural networks, which includes fully-connected neural networks and fully convolutional neural networks as special cases. We establish non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for a class of convex surrogate losses and target functions with different modulus of continuity. An important feature of our results is that we clearly define the prefactors of the risk bounds in terms of the input data dimension and other model parameters and show that they depend polynomially on the dimensionality in some important models. We also show that the classification methods with CNNs can circumvent the curse of dimensionality if the input data is supported on an approximate low-dimensional manifold. To establish these results, we derive an upper bound for the covering number for the class of general convolutional neural networks with a bias term in each convolutional layer, and derive new results on the approximation power of CNNs for any uniformly-continuous target functions. These results provide further insights into the complexity and the approximation power of general convolutional neural networks, which are of independent interest and may have other applications. Finally, we apply our general results to analyze the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for four widely used methods with different loss functions using CNNs, including the least squares, the logistic, the exponential and the SVM hinge losses.

cs.LG↗