arXiv subjects

Hajo Holzmann

Publications and source records attributed to Hajo Holzmann.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Local polynomial density ratio estimation

We propose a novel local-polynomial estimator of the ratio $r=f/g$ of two $d$-dimensional densities $f$ and $g$, from which independent samples are available. The estimator is shown to achieve pointwise minimax optimal rates over Hölder classes of arbitrary smoothness index without additional logarithmic factors, and with smoothness being only assumed of $r$ but not of $f$ nor $g$. Our analysis remains valid for points on the boundary of the support of the distribution associated to $g$ under a mild geometric assumption on the (unknown) boundary. We also derive a concentration inequality for the estimator, which can be useful in applications to classification, and give a rate in the supremum norm, where the supremum is also taken over boundary support points. The smoothness class over which the rate is obtained is sufficiently large that the individual densities $f$ and $g$ cannot be consistently estimated uniformly over this class. Direct estimators of the partial derivatives of $r$ together with rates of convergence are also provided. We also obtain asymptotic normality of the estimators under quite general assumptions and again including boundary points, with a consistent variance estimator allowing for data-driven studentization. Moreover, we show how our estimator can be used to estimate the Kullback-Leibler information, in a construction which additionally uses debiasing. We provide the parametric rate together with asymptotic normality under sufficient smoothness of $r$ relative to the dimension $d$.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Robust performance metrics for imbalanced classification problems

We show that established performance metrics in binary classification, such as Matthews' correlation coefficient (MCC), Cohen's $κ$, the F-score or the Jaccard similarity coefficient are not robust to class imbalance in the sense that if the proportion of the minority class tends to $0$, the true positive rate (TPR) of the Bayes classifier under these metrics tends to $0$ as well. Thus, in imbalanced classification problems, these metrics favour classifiers which ignore the minority class. To alleviate this issue we introduce robustified modifications of the MCC, of Cohen's $κ$ and of the F-score with an additional tuning parameter which allows to adapt the amount of robustness against class imbalance. As theoretical guarantee we show that the Bayes-optimal classifier for these robustified performance metrics, when expressed in terms of the density ratio $f_1/f_0$ of the class-conditional densities $f_i$, has a threshold parameter which is upper-bounded in terms of the tuning parameters. Therefore, even in strongly imbalanced settings, the TPR associated to this classifier will be bounded away from $0$. We numerically illustrate the behaviour of the various performance metrics and the effect of the tuning parameters in simulations as well as on a credit default data set. We also discuss connections to the receiver operating characteristic and precision-recall curves, which provide an alternative perspective on the proposed notion of robustness, and give recommendations on how to combine their usage with performance metrics.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Transferring supremum-norm rates and weak convergence of covariance kernel estimators to functional principal components

We show that $L_2$-perturbation theory can be used to transfer rates of convergence in the supremum norm as well as weak convergence in the space of continuous functions from covariance kernel estimators to the associated functional principle components (FPCs). As an application we obtain optimal rates of convergence in sup-norm, including minimax-lower bounds, as well as asymptotic normality for estimating the FPCs in a discrete observational model with errors under fixed, synchronous design. The sparse to dense transition which has previously been observed for mean function and covariance kernel estimators also applies to the FPCs. Surprisingly, eigenvalue estimation exhibits a discretization-dominated regime under sparse designs, too. Our results further apply to estimators of cross-covariance and long-run covariance kernels, as well as to covariance kernels of derivative processes. We also present results of numerical experiments in which we use the Nyström method to compute FPCs and eigenvalues, and give an empirical illustration to series of daily temperature curves.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Evaluating HWE and Association in Genome Wide Association Studies: A Unified Procedure

In genome wide association studies (GWASs) based on a case-control design, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are typically evaluated for an association test and a Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) goodness-of-fit test. SNPs are then excluded from analysis based on a HWE cutoff to avoid false positives. In order to avoid cutoffs based on arbitrary threshold values, we propose a conditional genotype--based test that conditions the Pearson $χ^2$-statistic in the 3x2 contingency table on the $χ^2$-statistic for HWE in the control group, and develop the relevant asymptotic distribution theory. We show by simulations that our test in most scenarios is more powerful than two competing retrospective procedures. Another important advantage of the proposed method is a better ranking of SNPs in GWASs as HWE is accounted for in computing p-values of SNP association. We demonstrate this effect on a data set in an alopecia study. In conclusion, our test makes separate HWE testing superfluous by providing a unified framework and strictly improves on the standard procedure in terms of power and interpretability, thereby making replication more cost effective and improving subsequent fine mapping.\par

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Beyond average warming: Two-sample inference for dense-sparse functional data reveals changes in intraday temperature patterns

Modern weather stations in Germany record daily temperatures every 10 minutes, whereas measurements from historical reference periods are often only available at much coarser temporal resolutions, typically hourly. This discrepancy must be accounted for when comparing historical and current daily temperature patterns. Motivated by this problem, we develop two-sample inference procedures for functional data under sampling schemes where one sample is densely observed while the other is relatively sparse. Building on recent ideas from transfer learning for functional data, we derive estimators of the difference of the mean functions that attain optimal convergence rates in the supremum norm. We further establish a functional central limit theorem in the space of continuous functions and develop multiplier bootstrap methods for constructing uniform confidence bands. Extensions to functional time series are also discussed. Applying the proposed methodology to daily temperature curves from German weather stations, analyzed separately by month, reveals that climate change has altered not only average temperatures but also intraday temperature patterns. In particular, for stations such as Berlin, warming from morning to early afternoon exceeds the daily average increase, whereas evening and nighttime temperatures exhibit comparatively smaller increases.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Optimal rates for estimating the covariance kernel from synchronously sampled functional data

We obtain minimax-optimal convergence rates in the supremum norm, including information-theoretic lower bounds, for estimating the covariance kernel of a stochastic process which is repeatedly observed at discrete, synchronous design points. We focus on the supremum norm instead of the simpler $L_2$ norm, since it corresponds to the visualization of the estimation error and forms the basis for the construction of uniform confidence bands. For dense design, assuming Hölder-smooth sample paths we obtain the $\sqrt n$-rate of convergence in the supremum norm without additional logarithmic factors which typically occur in the results in the literature. Surprisingly, in the transition from dense to sparse design the rates do not reflect the two-dimensional nature of the covariance kernel but correspond to those for univariate mean function estimation. Our estimation method can make use of higher-order smoothness of the covariance kernel away from the diagonal, and does not require the same smoothness on the diagonal itself. Hence, our results cover covariance kernels of processes with rough, non-differentiable sample paths. Moreover, the estimator does not use mean function estimation to form residuals, and no smoothness assumptions on the mean have to be imposed. In the dense case we also obtain a central limit theorem in the supremum norm, which can be used as the basis for the construction of uniform confidence sets. Extensions to estimating partial derivatives as well as to asynchronous designs are also discussed. Simulations and real-data applications illustrate the practical usefulness of the methods.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Smooth and rough paths in mean derivative estimation for functional data

In this paper, in a multivariate setting we derive near optimal rates of convergence in the minimax sense for estimating partial derivatives of the mean function for functional data observed under a fixed synchronous design over Hölder smoothness classes. We focus on the supremum norm since it corresponds to the visualisation of the estimation error, and is closely related to the construction of uniform confidence bands. In contrast to mean function estimation, for derivative estimation the smoothness of the paths of the processes is crucial for the rates of convergence. On the one hand, if the paths have higher-order smoothness than the order of the partial derivative to be estimated, the parametric $\sqrt n$ rate can be achieved under sufficiently dense design. On the other hand, for processes with rough paths of lower-order smoothness, we show that the rates of convergence are necessarily slower than the parametric rate, and determine a near-optimal rate at which estimation is still possible. We implement a multivariate local polynomial derivative estimator and illustrate its finite-sample performance in a simulation as well as for two real-data sets. To assess the smoothness of the sample paths in the applications we further discuss a method based on comparing restricted estimates of the partial derivatives of the covariance kernel.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Multivariate root-n-consistent smoothing parameter free matching estimators and estimators of inverse density weighted expectations

Expected values weighted by the inverse of a multivariate density or, equivalently, Lebesgue integrals of regression functions with multivariate regressors occur in various areas of applications, including estimating average treatment effects, nonparametric estimators in random coefficient regression models or deconvolution estimators in Berkson errors-in-variables models. The frequently used nearest-neighbor and matching estimators suffer from bias problems in multiple dimensions. By using polynomial least squares fits on each cell of the $K^{\text{th}}$-order Voronoi tessellation for sufficiently large $K$, we develop novel modifications of nearest-neighbor and matching estimators which again converge at the parametric $\sqrt n $-rate under mild smoothness assumptions on the unknown regression function and without any smoothness conditions on the unknown density of the covariates. We stress that in contrast to competing methods for correcting for the bias of matching estimators, our estimators do not involve nonparametric function estimators and in particular do not rely on sample-size dependent smoothing parameters. We complement the upper bounds with appropriate lower bounds derived from information-theoretic arguments, which show that some smoothness of the regression function is indeed required to achieve the parametric rate. Simulations illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed methods.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Support estimation in high-dimensional heteroscedastic mean regression

A current strand of research in high-dimensional statistics deals with robustifying the available methodology with respect to deviations from the pervasive light-tail assumptions. In this paper we consider a linear mean regression model with random design and potentially heteroscedastic, heavy-tailed errors, and investigate support estimation in this framework. We use a strictly convex, smooth variant of the Huber loss function with tuning parameter depending on the parameters of the problem, as well as the adaptive LASSO penalty for computational efficiency. For the resulting estimator we show sign-consistency and optimal rates of convergence in the $\ell_\infty$ norm as in the homoscedastic, light-tailed setting. In our analysis, we have to deal with the issue that the support of the target parameter in the linear mean regression model and its robustified version may differ substantially even for small values of the tuning parameter of the Huber loss function. Simulations illustrate the favorable numerical performance of the proposed methodology.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

From dense to sparse design: Optimal rates under the supremum norm for estimating the mean function in functional data analysis

We derive optimal rates of convergence in the supremum norm for estimating the Hölder-smooth mean function of a stochastic process which is repeatedly and discretely observed with additional errors at fixed, multivariate, synchronous design points, the typical scenario for machine recorded functional data. Similarly to the optimal rates in $L_2$ obtained in \citet{cai2011optimal}, for sparse design a discretization term dominates, while in the dense case the parametric $\sqrt n$ rate can be achieved as if the $n$ processes were continuously observed without errors. The supremum norm is of practical interest since it corresponds to the visualization of the estimation error, and forms the basis for the construction uniform confidence bands. We show that in contrast to the analysis in $L_2$, there is an intermediate regime between the sparse and dense cases dominated by the contribution of the observation errors. Furthermore, under the supremum norm interpolation estimators which suffice in $L_2$ turn out to be sub-optimal in the dense setting, which helps to explain their poor empirical performance. In contrast to previous contributions involving the supremum norm, we discuss optimality even in the multivariate setting, and for dense design obtain the $\sqrt n$ rate of convergence without additional logarithmic factors. We also obtain a central limit theorem in the supremum norm, and provide simulations and real data applications to illustrate our results.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Lancaster correlation -- a new dependence measure linked to maximum correlation

We suggest novel correlation coefficients which equal the maximum correlation for a class of bivariate Lancaster distributions while being only slightly smaller than maximum correlation for a variety of further bivariate distributions. In contrast to maximum correlation, however, our correlation coefficients allow for rank and moment-based estimators which are simple to compute and have tractable asymptotic distributions. Confidence intervals resulting from these asymptotic approximations and the covariance bootstrap show good finite-sample coverage. In a simulation, the power of asymptotic as well as permutation tests for independence based on our correlation measures compares favorably with competing methods based on distance correlation or rank coefficients for functional dependence, among others. Moreover, for the bivariate normal distribution, our correlation coefficients equal the absolute value of the Pearson correlation, an attractive feature for practitioners which is not shared by various competitors. We illustrate the practical usefulness of our methods in applications to two real data sets.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Bounded support in linear random coefficient models: Identification and variable selection

We consider linear random coefficient regression models, where the regressors are allowed to have a finite support. First, we investigate identifiability, and show that the means and the variances and covariances of the random coefficients are identified from the first two conditional moments of the response given the covariates if the support of the covariates, excluding the intercept, contains a Cartesian product with at least three points in each coordinate. We also discuss ientification of higher-order mixed moments, as well as partial identification in the presence of a binary regressor. Next we show the variable selection consistency of the adaptive LASSO for the variances and covariances of the random coefficients in finite and moderately high dimensions. This implies that the estimated covariance matrix will actually be positive semidefinite and hence a valid covariance matrix, in contrast to the estimate arising from a simple least squares fit. We illustrate the proposed method in a simulation study.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Using Proxies to Improve Forecast Evaluation

Comparative evaluation of forecasts of statistical functionals relies on comparing averaged losses of competing forecasts after the realization of the quantity $Y$, on which the functional is based, has been observed. Motivated by high-frequency finance, in this paper we investigate how proxies $\tilde Y$ for $Y$ - say volatility proxies - which are observed together with $Y$ can be utilized to improve forecast comparisons. We extend previous results on robustness of loss functions for the mean to general moments and ratios of moments, and show in terms of the variance of differences of losses that using proxies will increase the power in comparative forecast tests. These results apply both to testing conditional as well as unconditional dominance. Finally, we numerically illustrate the theoretical results, both for simulated high-frequency data as well as for high-frequency log returns of several cryptocurrencies.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Measurability of functionals and of ideal point forecasts

The ideal probabilistic forecast for a random variable $Y$ based on an information set $\mathcal{F}$ is the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $\mathcal{F}$. In the context of point forecasts aiming to specify a functional $T$ such as the mean, a quantile or a risk measure, the ideal point forecast is the respective functional applied to the conditional distribution. This paper provides a theoretical justification why this ideal forecast is actually a forecast, that is, an $\mathcal{F}$-measurable random variable. To that end, the appropriate notion of measurability of $T$ is clarified and this measurability is established for a large class of practically relevant functionals, including elicitable ones. More generally, the measurability of $T$ implies the measurability of any point forecast which arises by applying $T$ to a probabilistic forecast. Similar measurability results are established for proper scoring rules, the main tool to evaluate the predictive accuracy of probabilistic forecasts.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Simultaneous inference for Berkson errors-in-variables regression under fixed design

In various applications of regression analysis, in addition to errors in the dependent observations also errors in the predictor variables play a substantial role and need to be incorporated in the statistical modeling process. In this paper we consider a nonparametric measurement error model of Berkson type with fixed design regressors and centered random errors, which is in contrast to much existing work in which the predictors are taken as random observations with random noise. Based on an estimator that takes the error in the predictor into account and on a suitable Gaussian approximation, we derive %uniform confidence statements for the function of interest. In particular, we provide finite sample bounds on the coverage error of uniform confidence bands, where we circumvent the use of extreme-value theory and rather rely on recent results on anti-concentration of Gaussian processes. In a simulation study we investigate the performance of the uniform confidence sets for finite samples.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Testing for spherical and elliptical symmetry

We construct new testing procedures for spherical and elliptical symmetry based on the characterization that a random vector $X$ with finite mean has a spherical distribution if and only if $\Ex[u^\top X | v^\top X] = 0$ holds for any two perpendicular vectors $u$ and $v$. Our test is based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, and its rejection region is found via the spherically symmetric bootstrap. We show the consistency of the spherically symmetric bootstrap test using a general Donsker theorem which is of some independent interest. For the case of testing for elliptical symmetry, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic has an asymptotic drift term due to the estimated location and scale parameters. Therefore, an additional standardization is required in the bootstrap procedure. In a simulation study, the size and the power properties of our tests are assessed for several distributions and the performance is compared to that of several competing procedures.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Rate-optimal nonparametric estimation for random coefficient regression models

Random coefficient regression models are a popular tool for analyzing unobserved heterogeneity, and have seen renewed interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we obtain the optimal pointwise convergence rate for estimating the density in the linear random coefficient model over Hölder smoothness classes, and in particular show how the tail behavior of the design density impacts this rate. In contrast to previous suggestions, the estimator that we propose and that achieves the optimal convergence rate does not require dividing by a nonparametric density estimate. The optimal choice of the tuning parameters in the estimator depends on the tail parameter of the design density and on the smoothness level of the Hölder class, and we also study adaptive estimation with respect to both parameters.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Uniform approximation in classical weak convergence theory

A common statistical task lies in showing asymptotic normality of certain statistics. In many of these situations, classical textbook results on weak convergence theory suffice for the problem at hand. However, there are quite some scenarios where stronger results are needed in order to establish an asymptotic normal approximation uniformly over a family of probability measures. In this note we collect some results in this direction. We restrict ourselves to weak convergence in $\mathbb R^d$ with continuous limit measures.

math.PR↗