arXiv subjects

Hajo Holzmann

Publications and source records attributed to Hajo Holzmann.

28 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Asymptotic confidence sets for the jump curve in bivariate regression problems

We construct uniform and point-wise asymptotic confidence sets for the single edge in an otherwise smooth image function which are based on rotated differences of two one-sided kernel estimators. Using methods from M-estimation, we show consistency of the estimators of location, slope and height of the edge function and develop a uniform linearization of the contrast process. The uniform confidence bands then rely on a Gaussian approximation of the score process together with anti-concentration results for suprema of Gaussian processes, while point-wise bands are based on asymptotic normality. The finite-sample performance of the point-wise proposed methods is investigated in a simulation study. An illustration to real-world image processing is also given.

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arXiv2018

Nonparametric identification in the dynamic stochastic block model

We show nonparametric identification of the parameters in the dynamic stochastic block model as recently introduced in Matias and Miele (2017) in case of binary, finitely weighted and general edge states. We formulate conditions on the true parameters which guarantee actual point identification instead of mere generic identification, and which also lead to novel conclusions in the static case. In particular, our results justify in terms of identification the applications in Matias and Miele (2017) to finitely weighted edges with three edge states. We also give numerical illustrations via the variational EM algorithm in simulation settings covered by our identification analysis.

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arXiv2017

Weak convergence of quantile and expectile processes under general assumptions

We show weak convergence of quantile and expectile processes to Gaussian limit processes in the space of bounded functions endowed with an appropriate semimetric which is based on the concepts of epi- and hypo convergence as introduced in \citet{buecher2014}. We impose assumptions for which it is known that weak convergence with respect to the supremum norm or the Skorodhod metric generally fails to hold. For expectiles, we only require a distribution with finite second moment but no further smoothness properties of distribution function, for quantiles, the distribution is assumed to be absolutely continuous with a version of its Lebesgue density which is strictly positive and has left- and right-sided limits. We also show consistency of the bootstrap for this mode of convergence.

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arXiv2017

Weighted scoring rules and hypothesis testing

We discuss weighted scoring rules for forecast evaluation and their connection to hypothesis testing. First, a general construction principle for strictly locally proper weighted scoring rules based on conditional densities and scoring rules for probability forecasts is proposed. We show how likelihood-based weighted scoring rules from the literature fit into this framework, and also introduce a weighted version of the Hyvärinen score, which is a local scoring rule in the sense that it only depends on the forecast density and its derivatives at the observation, and does not require evaluation of integrals. Further, we discuss the relation to hypothesis testing. Using a weighted scoring rule introduces a censoring mechanism, in which the form of the density is irrelevant outside the region of interest. For the resulting testing problem with composite null - and alternative hypotheses, we construct optimal tests, and identify the associated weighted scoring rule. As a practical consequence, using a weighted scoring rule allows to decide in favor of a forecast which is superior to a competing forecast on a region of interest, even though it may be inferior outside this region. A simulation study and an application to financial time-series data illustrate these findings.

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arXiv2016

Asymptotics for the expected shortfall

We derive the joint asymptotic distribution of empirical quantiles and expected shortfalls under general conditions on the distribution of the underlying observations. In particular, we do not assume that the distribution function is differentiable at the quantile with strictly positive derivative. Hence the rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution for the quantile can be non-standard, but our results show that the expected shortfall remains asymptotically normal with a $\sqrt{n}$-rate, and we even give the joint distribution in such non-standard cases. In the derivation we use the bivariate scoring functions for quantile and expected shortfall as recently introduced by Fissler and Ziegel (2016). The main technical issue is to deal with the distinct rates for quantile and expected shortfall when applying the argmax-continuity theorem. We also consider spectral risk measures with finitely-supported spectral measures, and illustrate our results in a simulation study.

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arXiv2016

Expectile Asymptotics

We discuss in detail the asymptotic distribution of sample expectiles. First, we show uniform consistency under the assumption of a finite mean. In case of a finite second moment, we show that for expectiles other then the mean, only the additional assumption of continuity of the distribution function at the expectile implies asymptotic normality, otherwise, the limit is non-normal. For a continuous distribution function we show the uniform central limit theorem for the expectile process. If, in contrast, the distribution is heavy-tailed, and contained in the domain of attraction of a stable law with $1 < α< 2$, then we show that the expectile is also asymptotically stable distributed. Our findings are illustrated in a simulation section.

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arXiv2015

Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for hidden Markov model

Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability matrices have full-rank and are ergodic, and if the state-dependent distributions are all distinct, but not necessarily linearly independent. Based on this identification result, we develop nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation theory. First, we show that the asymptotic contrast, the Kullback--Leibler divergence of the hidden Markov model, identifies the true parameter vector nonparametrically as well. Second, for classes of state-dependent densities which are arbitrary mixtures of a parametric family, we show consistency of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator. Here, identification of the mixing distributions need not be assumed. Numerical properties of the estimates as well as of nonparametric goodness of fit tests are investigated in a simulation study.

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arXiv2014

Nonparametric Identification in Panels using Quantiles

This paper considers identification and estimation of ceteris paribus effects of continuous regressors in nonseparable panel models with time homogeneity. The effects of interest are derivatives of the average and quantile structural functions of the model. We find that these derivatives are identified with two time periods for "stayers", i.e. for individuals with the same regressor values in two time periods. We show that the identification results carry over to models that allow location and scale time effects. We propose nonparametric series methods and a weighted bootstrap scheme to estimate and make inference on the identified effects. The bootstrap proposed allows uniform inference for function-valued parameters such as quantile effects uniformly over a region of quantile indices and/or regressor values. An empirical application to Engel curve estimation with panel data illustrates the results.

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arXiv2014

The role of the information set for forecasting - with applications to risk management

Predictions are issued on the basis of certain information. If the forecasting mechanisms are correctly specified, a larger amount of available information should lead to better forecasts. For point forecasts, we show how the effect of increasing the information set can be quantified by using strictly consistent scoring functions, where it results in smaller average scores. Further, we show that the classical Diebold-Mariano test, based on strictly consistent scoring functions and asymptotically ideal forecasts, is a consistent test for the effect of an increase in a sequence of information sets on $h$-step point forecasts. For the value at risk (VaR), we show that the average score, which corresponds to the average quantile risk, directly relates to the expected shortfall. Thus, increasing the information set will result in VaR forecasts which lead on average to smaller expected shortfalls. We illustrate our results in simulations and applications to stock returns for unconditional versus conditional risk management as well as univariate modeling of portfolio returns versus multivariate modeling of individual risk factors. The role of the information set for evaluating probabilistic forecasts by using strictly proper scoring rules is also discussed.

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arXiv2011

Improving PSF calibration in confocal microscopic imaging---estimating and exploiting bilateral symmetry

A method for estimating the axis of reflectional symmetry of an image $f(x,y)$ on the unit disc $D=\{(x,y):x^2+y^2\leq1\}$ is proposed, given that noisy data of $f(x,y)$ are observed on a discrete grid of edge width $Δ$. Our estimation procedure is based on minimizing over $β\in[0,π)$ the $L_2$ distance between empirical versions of $f$ and $τ_βf$, the image of $f$ after reflection at the axis along $(\cosβ,\sinβ)$. Here, $f$ and $τ_βf$ are estimated using truncated radial series of the Zernike type. The inherent symmetry properties of the Zernike functions result in a particularly simple estimation procedure for $β$. It is shown that the estimate $\hatβ$ converges at the parametric rate $Δ^{-1}$ for images $f$ of bounded variation. Further, we establish asymptotic normality of $\hatβ$ if $f$ is Lipschitz continuous. The method is applied to calibrating the point spread function (PSF) for the deconvolution of images from confocal microscopy. For various reasons the PSF characterizing the problem may not be rotationally invariant but rather only reflection symmetric with respect to two orthogonal axes. For an image of a bead acquired by a confocal laser scanning microscope (Leica TCS), these axes are estimated and corresponding confidence intervals are constructed. They turn out to be close to the coordinate axes of the imaging device. As cause for deviation from rotational invariance, this indicates some slight misalignment of the optical system or anisotropy of the immersion medium rather than some irregular shape of the bead. In an extensive simulation study, we show that using a symmetrized version of the observed PSF significantly improves the subsequent reconstruction process of the target image.

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