arXiv subjects

Hans-Georg Müller

Publications and source records attributed to Hans-Georg Müller.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Exceedance and force of centrality for functional data

Exceedance refers to instances where a dynamic process surpasses given thresholds, e.g., the occurrence of a heat wave. We propose a novel exceedance framework for functional data, where each observed random trajectory is transformed into an exceedance function, which quantifies exceedance durations as a function of threshold levels. An inherent relationship between exceedance functions and probability distributions makes it possible to draw on distributional data analysis techniques such as Fréchet regression to study the dependence of exceedances on Euclidean predictors, e.g., calendar year when the exceedances are observed. We use local linear estimators to obtain exceedance functions from discretely observed functional data with noise and study the convergence of the proposed estimators. New concepts of interest include the force of centrality that quantifies the propensity of a system to revert to lower levels when a given threshold has been exceeded, conditional exceedance functions when conditioning on Euclidean covariates, and threshold exceedance functions, which characterize the size of exceedance sets in dependence on covariates for any fixed threshold. We establish consistent estimation with rates of convergence for these targets. The practical merits of the proposed methodology are illustrated through simulations and applications for annual temperature curves and medfly activity profiles.

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arXiv2024

Decomposition-Based Intrinsic Modeling of Shape-Constrained Functional Data

Shape-constrained functional data encompass a wide array of application fields, such as activity profiling, growth curves, healthcare and mortality. Most existing methods for general functional data analysis often ignore that such data are subject to inherent shape constraints, while some specialized techniques rely on strict distributional assumptions. We propose an approach for modeling such data that harnesses the intrinsic geometry of functional trajectories by decomposing them into size and shape components. We focus on the two most prevalent shape constraints, positivity and monotonicity, and develop individual-level estimators for the size and shape components. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of our approach by conducting subsequent analyses involving Fréchet mean and Fréchet regression and establish rates of convergence for the empirical estimators. Illustrative examples include simulations and data applications for activity profiles for Mediterranean fruit flies during their entire lifespan and for data from the Zürich longitudinal growth study.

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arXiv2024

Modeling Time-Varying Random Objects and Dynamic Networks

Samples of dynamic or time-varying networks and other random object data such as time-varying probability distributions are increasingly encountered in modern data analysis. Common methods for time-varying data such as functional data analysis are infeasible when observations are time courses of networks or other complex non-Euclidean random objects that are elements of general metric spaces. In such spaces, only pairwise distances between the data objects are available and a strong limitation is that one cannot carry out arithmetic operations due to the lack of an algebraic structure. We combat this complexity by a generalized notion of mean trajectory taking values in the object space. For this, we adopt pointwise Fréchet means and then construct pointwise distance trajectories between the individual time courses and the estimated Fréchet mean trajectory, thus representing the time-varying objects and networks by functional data. Functional principal component analysis of these distance trajectories can reveal interesting features of dynamic networks and object time courses and is useful for downstream analysis. Our approach also makes it possible to study the empirical dynamics of time-varying objects, including dynamic regression to the mean or explosive behavior over time. We demonstrate desirable asymptotic properties of sample based estimators for suitable population targets under mild assumptions. The utility of the proposed methodology is illustrated with dynamic networks, time-varying distribution data and longitudinal growth data.

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arXiv2024

Dynamic Modeling of Sparse Longitudinal Data and Functional Snippets With Stochastic Differential Equations

Sparse functional/longitudinal data have attracted widespread interest due to the prevalence of such data in social and life sciences. A prominent scenario where such data are routinely encountered are accelerated longitudinal studies, where subjects are enrolled in the study at a random time and are only tracked for a short amount of time relative to the domain of interest. The statistical analysis of such functional snippets is challenging since information for the far-off-diagonal regions of the covariance structure is missing. Our main methodological contribution is to address this challenge by bypassing covariance estimation and instead modeling the underlying process as the solution of a data-adaptive stochastic differential equation. Taking advantage of the interface between Gaussian functional data and stochastic differential equations makes it possible to efficiently reconstruct the target process by estimating its dynamic distribution. The proposed approach allows one to consistently recover forward sample paths from functional snippets at the subject level. We establish the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the proposed data-driven stochastic differential equation and derive rates of convergence for the corresponding estimators. The finite-sample performance is demonstrated with simulation studies and functional snippets arising from a growth study and spinal bone mineral density data.

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arXiv2024

Functional Principal Component Analysis for Distribution-Valued Processes

We develop statistical models for samples of distribution-valued stochastic processes featuring time-indexed univariate distributions, with emphasis on functional principal component analysis. The proposed model presents an intrinsic rather than transformation-based approach. The starting point is a transport process representation for distribution-valued processes under the Wasserstein metric. Substituting transports for distributions addresses the challenge of centering distribution-valued processes and leads to a useful and interpretable decomposition of each realized process into a process-specific single transport and a real-valued trajectory. This representation makes it possible to utilize a scalar multiplication operation for transports and facilitates not only functional principal component analysis but also to introduce a latent Gaussian process. This Gaussian process proves especially useful for the case where the distribution-valued processes are only observed on a sparse grid of time points, establishing an approach for longitudinal distribution-valued data. We study the convergence of the key components of this novel representation to their population targets and demonstrate the practical utility of the proposed approach through simulations and several data illustrations.

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arXiv2024

Functional linear and single-index models: A unified approach via Gaussian Stein identity

Functional linear and single-index models are core regression methods in functional data analysis and are widely used for performing regression in a wide range of applications when the covariates are random functions coupled with scalar responses. In the existing literature, however, the construction of associated estimators and the study of their theoretical properties is invariably carried out on a case-by-case basis for specific models under consideration. In this work, assuming the predictors are Gaussian processes, we provide a unified methodological and theoretical framework for estimating the index in functional linear, and its direction in single-index models. In the latter case, the proposed approach does not require the specification of the link function. In terms of methodology, we show that the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) based functional linear least-squares estimator, when viewed through the lens of an infinite-dimensional Gaussian Stein's identity, also provides an estimator of the index of the single-index model. Theoretically, we characterize the convergence rates of the proposed estimators for both linear and single-index models. Our analysis has several key advantages: (i) it does not require restrictive commutativity assumptions for the covariance operator of the random covariates and the integral operator associated with the reproducing kernel; and (ii) the true index parameter can lie outside of the chosen RKHS, thereby allowing for index misspecification as well as for quantifying the degree of such index misspecification. Several existing results emerge as special cases of our analysis.

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arXiv2024

Metric Statistics: Exploration and Inference for Random Objects With Distance Profiles

This article provides an overview on the statistical modeling of complex data as increasingly encountered in modern data analysis. It is argued that such data can often be described as elements of a metric space that satisfies certain structural conditions and features a probability measure. We refer to the random elements of such spaces as random objects and to the emerging field that deals with their statistical analysis as metric statistics. Metric statistics provides methodology, theory and visualization tools for the statistical description, quantification of variation, centrality and quantiles, regression and inference for populations of random objects, inferring these quantities from available data and samples. In addition to a brief review of current concepts, we focus on distance profiles as a major tool for object data in conjunction with the pairwise Wasserstein transports of the underlying one-dimensional distance distributions. These pairwise transports lead to the definition of intuitive and interpretable notions of transport ranks and transport quantiles as well as two-sample inference. An associated profile metric complements the original metric of the object space and may reveal important features of the object data in data analysis. We demonstrate these tools for the analysis of complex data through various examples and visualizations.

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arXiv2023

Geodesic Optimal Transport Regression

Classical regression models do not cover non-Euclidean data that reside in a general metric space, while the current literature on non-Euclidean regression by and large has focused on scenarios where either predictors or responses are random objects, i.e., non-Euclidean, but not both. In this paper we propose geodesic optimal transport regression models for the case where both predictors and responses lie in a common geodesic metric space and predictors may include not only one but also several random objects. This provides an extension of classical multiple regression to the case where both predictors and responses reside in non-Euclidean metric spaces, a scenario that has not been considered before. It is based on the concept of optimal geodesic transports, which we define as an extension of the notion of optimal transports in distribution spaces to more general geodesic metric spaces, where we characterize optimal transports as transports along geodesics. The proposed regression models cover the relation between non-Euclidean responses and vectors of non-Euclidean predictors in many spaces of practical statistical interest. These include one-dimensional distributions viewed as elements of the 2-Wasserstein space and multidimensional distributions with the Fisher-Rao metric that are represented as data on the Hilbert sphere. Also included are data on finite-dimensional Riemannian manifolds, with an emphasis on spheres, covering directional and compositional data, as well as data that consist of symmetric positive definite matrices. We illustrate the utility of geodesic optimal transport regression with data on summer temperature distributions and human mortality.

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arXiv2023

Wasserstein Regression with Empirical Measures and Density Estimation for Sparse Data

The problem of modeling the relationship between univariate distributions and one or more explanatory variables has found increasing interest. Traditional functional data methods cannot be applied directly to distributional data because of their inherent constraints. Modeling distributions as elements of the Wasserstein space, a geodesic metric space equipped with the Wasserstein metric that is related to optimal transport, is attractive for statistical applications. Existing approaches proceed by substituting proxy estimated distributions for the typically unknown response distributions. These estimates are obtained from available data but are problematic when for some of the distributions only few data are available. Such situations are common in practice and cannot be addressed with available approaches, especially when one aims at density estimates. We show how this and other problems associated with density estimation such as tuning parameter selection and bias issues can be side-stepped when covariates are available. We also introduce a novel version of distribution-response regression that is based on empirical measures. By avoiding the preprocessing step of recovering complete individual response distributions, the proposed approach is applicable when the sample size available for some of the distributions is small. In this case, one can still obtain consistent distribution estimates even for distributions with only few data by gaining strength across the entire sample of distributions, while traditional approaches where distributions or densities are estimated individually fail, since sparsely sampled densities cannot be consistently estimated. The proposed model is demonstrated to outperform existing approaches through simulations. Its efficacy is corroborated in two case studies on Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) data and eBay auction data.

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arXiv2023

Single Index Fréchet Regression

Single index models provide an effective dimension reduction tool in regression, especially for high dimensional data, by projecting a general multivariate predictor onto a direction vector. We propose a novel single-index model for regression models where metric space-valued random object responses are coupled with multivariate Euclidean predictors. The responses in this regression model include complex, non-Euclidean data that lie in abstract metric spaces, including covariance matrices, graph Laplacians of networks, and univariate probability distribution functions. While Fréchet regression has proved useful for modeling the conditional mean of such random objects given multivariate Euclidean vectors, it does not provide for regression parameters such as slopes or intercepts, since the metric space-valued responses are not amenable to linear operations. As a consequence, distributional results for Fréchet regression have been elusive. We show here that for the case of multivariate Euclidean predictors, the parameters that define a single index and projection vector can be used to substitute for the inherent absence of parameters in Fréchet regression. Specifically, we derive the asymptotic distribution of suitable estimates of these parameters, which then can be utilized to test linear hypotheses for the parameters, subject to an identifiability condition. We demonstrate the finite sample performance of estimation and inference for the proposed single index Fréchet regression model through simulation studies. The method is illustrated for resting-state functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data from the ADNI study.

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arXiv2023

Geodesic Mixed Effects Models for Repeatedly Observed/Longitudinal Random Objects

Mixed effect modeling for longitudinal data is challenging when the observed data are random objects, which are complex data taking values in a general metric space without linear structure. In such settings the classical additive error model and distributional assumptions are unattainable. Due to the rapid advancement of technology, longitudinal data containing complex random objects, such as covariance matrices, data on Riemannian manifolds, and probability distributions are becoming more common. Addressing this challenge, we develop a mixed-effects regression for data in geodesic spaces, where the underlying mean response trajectories are geodesics in the metric space and the deviations of the observations from the model are quantified by perturbation maps or transports. A key finding is that the geodesic trajectories assumption for the case of random objects is a natural extension of the linearity assumption in the standard Euclidean scenario. Further, geodesics can be recovered from noisy observations by exploiting a connection between the geodesic path and the path obtained by global Fréchet regression for random objects. The effect of baseline Euclidean covariates on the geodesic paths is modeled by another Fréchet regression step. We study the asymptotic convergence of the proposed estimates and provide illustrations through simulations and real-data applications.

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arXiv2023

Autoregressive Optimal Transport Models

Series of univariate distributions indexed by equally spaced time points are ubiquitous in applications and their analysis constitutes one of the challenges of the emerging field of distributional data analysis. To quantify such distributional time series, we propose a class of intrinsic autoregressive models that operate in the space of optimal transport maps. The autoregressive transport models that we introduce here are based on regressing optimal transport maps on each other, where predictors can be transport maps from an overall barycenter to a current distribution or transport maps between past consecutive distributions of the distributional time series. Autoregressive transport models and their associated distributional regression models specify the link between predictor and response transport maps by moving along geodesics in Wasserstein space. These models emerge as natural extensions of the classical autoregressive models in Euclidean space. Unique stationary solutions of autoregressive transport models are shown to exist under a geometric moment contraction condition of Wu and Shao (2004), using properties of iterated random functions. We also discuss an extension to a varying coefficient model for first order autoregressive transport models. In addition to simulations, the proposed models are illustrated with distributional time series of house prices across U.S. counties and annual summer temperature distributions.

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arXiv2023

Latent Deformation Models for Multivariate Functional Data and Time Warping Separability

Multivariate functional data present theoretical and practical complications which are not found in univariate functional data. One of these is a situation where the component functions of multivariate functional data are positive and are subject to mutual time warping. That is, the component processes exhibit a common shape but are subject to systematic phase variation across their domains in addition to subject-specific time warping, where each subject has its own internal clock. This motivates a novel model for multivariate functional data that connects such mutual time warping to a latent deformation-based framework by exploiting a novel time warping separability assumption. This separability assumption allows for meaningful interpretation and dimension reduction. The resulting Latent Deformation Model is shown to be well suited to represent commonly encountered functional vector data. The proposed approach combines a random amplitude factor for each component with population based registration across the components of a multivariate functional data vector and includes a latent population function, which corresponds to a common underlying trajectory. We propose estimators for all components of the model, enabling implementation of the proposed data-based representation for multivariate functional data and downstream analyses such as Fréchet regression. Rates of convergence are established when curves are fully observed or observed with measurement error. The usefulness of the model, interpretations, and practical aspects are illustrated in simulations and with application to multivariate human growth curves and multivariate environmental pollution data.

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arXiv2022

Network Regression with Graph Laplacians

Network data are increasingly available in various research fields, motivating statistical analysis for populations of networks where a network as a whole is viewed as a data point. Due to the non-Euclidean nature of networks, basic statistical tools available for scalar and vector data are no longer applicable when one aims to relate networks as outcomes to Euclidean covariates, while the study of how a network changes in dependence on covariates is often of paramount interest. This motivates to extend the notion of regression to the case of responses that are network data. Here we propose to adopt conditional Fréchet means implemented with both global least squares regression and local weighted least squares smoothing, extending the Fréchet regression concept to networks that are quantified by their graph Laplacians. The challenge is to characterize the space of graph Laplacians so as to justify the application of Fréchet regression. This characterization then leads to asymptotic rates of convergence for the corresponding M-estimators by applying empirical process methods. We demonstrate the usefulness and good practical performance of the proposed framework with simulations and with network data arising from resting-state fMRI in neuroimaging, as well as New York taxi records.

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arXiv2022

Spherical Autoregressive Models, With Application to Distributional and Compositional Time Series

We introduce a new class of autoregressive models for spherical time series, where the dimension of the spheres on which the observations of the time series are situated may be finite-dimensional or infinite-dimensional as in the case of a general Hilbert sphere. Spherical time series arise in various settings. We focus here on distributional and compositional time series. Applying a square root transformation to the densities of the observations of a distributional time series maps the distributional observations to the Hilbert sphere, equipped with the Fisher-Rao metric. Likewise, applying a square root transformation to the components of the observations of a compositional time series maps the compositional observations to a finite-dimensional sphere, equipped with the geodesic metric on spheres. The challenge in modeling such time series lies in the intrinsic non-linearity of spheres and Hilbert spheres, where conventional arithmetic operations such as addition or scalar multiplication are no longer available. To address this difficulty, we consider rotation operators to map observations on the sphere. Specifically, we introduce a class of skew-symmetric operator such that the associated exponential operators are rotation operators that for each given pair of points on the sphere map one of the points to the other one. We exploit the fact that the space of skew-symmetric operators is Hilbertian to develop autoregressive modeling of geometric differences that correspond to rotations of spherical and distributional time series. Motivating data for our methods include a time series of yearly observations of bivariate distributions of the minimum/maximum temperatures for a period of 120 days during each summer for the years 1990-2018 at Los Angeles (LAX) and John F. Kennedy (JFK) international airports.

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arXiv2021

Learning delay dynamics for multivariate stochastic processes, with application to the prediction of the growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the United States

Delay differential equations form the underpinning of many complex dynamical systems. The forward problem of solving random differential equations with delay has received increasing attention in recent years. Motivated by the challenge to predict the COVID-19 caseload trajectories for individual states in the U.S., we target here the inverse problem. Given a sample of observed random trajectories obeying an unknown random differential equation model with delay, we use a functional data analysis framework to learn the model parameters that govern the underlying dynamics from the data. We show existence and uniqueness of the analytical solutions of the population delay random differential equation model when one has discrete time delays in the functional concurrent regression model and also for a second scenario where one has a delay continuum or distributed delay. The latter involves a functional linear regression model with history index. The derivative of the process of interest is modeled using the process itself as predictor and also other functional predictors with predictor-specific delayed impacts. This dynamics learning approach is shown to be well suited to model the growth rate of COVID-19 for the states that are part of the U.S., by pooling information from the individual states, using the case process and concurrently observed economic and mobility data as predictors.

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arXiv2021

Cox Point Process Regression

Point processes in time have a wide range of applications that include the claims arrival process in insurance or the analysis of queues in operations research. Due to advances in technology, such samples of point processes are increasingly encountered. A key object of interest is the local intensity function. It has a straightforward interpretation that allows to understand and explore point process data. We consider functional approaches for point processes, where one has a sample of repeated realizations of the point process. This situation is inherently connected with Cox processes, where the intensity functions of the replications are modeled as random functions. Here we study a situation where one records covariates for each replication of the process, such as the daily temperature for bike rentals. For modeling point processes as responses with vector covariates as predictors we propose a novel regression approach for the intensity function that is intrinsically nonparametric. While the intensity function of a point process that is only observed once on a fixed domain cannot be identified, we show how covariates and repeated observations of the process can be utilized to make consistent estimation possible, and we also derive asymptotic rates of convergence without invoking parametric assumptions.

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arXiv2021

Total Variation Regularized Fréchet Regression for Metric-Space Valued Data

Non-Euclidean data that are indexed with a scalar predictor such as time are increasingly encountered in data applications, while statistical methodology and theory for such random objects are not well developed yet. To address the need for new methodology in this area, we develop a total variation regularization technique for nonparametric Fréchet regression, which refers to a regression setting where a response residing in a metric space is paired with a scalar predictor and the target is a conditional Fréchet mean. Specifically, we seek to approximate an unknown metric-space valued function by an estimator that minimizes the Fréchet version of least squares and at the same time has small total variation, appropriately defined for metric-space valued objects. We show that the resulting estimator is representable by a piece-wise constant function and establish the minimax convergence rate of the proposed estimator for metric data objects that reside in Hadamard spaces. We illustrate the numerical performance of the proposed method for both simulated and real data, including metric spaces of symmetric positive-definite matrices with the affine-invariant distance, of probability distributions on the real line with the Wasserstein distance, and of phylogenetic trees with the Billera--Holmes--Vogtmann metric.

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