arXiv subjects

Hardi Veermäe

Publications and source records attributed to Hardi Veermäe.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Heavy Tailed Non-Gaussianity of the Supermassive Black Hole Gravitational Wave Background

We study the non-Gaussian features of the gravitational wave (GW) background generated by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries. We show that the SMBH GW amplitude distribution (GWAD) features a universal heavy power-law tail $\propto A^{-4}$, while the low-amplitude tail depends on the SMBH merger rate and the energy-loss mechanisms of the binaries. The distribution of the induced timing residuals inherits this heavy tail. As a result, the ensemble averaged statistical moments of order three and higher diverge, limiting their usefulness as measures of non-Gaussianity, and the GW background from SMBH binaries exhibits the single loud source principle, according to which the strongest signals are more likely to be caused by a small number of loud sources. We confirm that the variance-averaged Gaussian approximation accurately describes the timing residual statistics. This approximation justifies a factored likelihood structure that combines standard Gaussian-process PTA posteriors with the non-Gaussian population prior, enabling consistent incorporation of non-Gaussian effects into SMBH model inference. We provide a fast and flexible Python implementation to compute the distribution of timing residuals from a given SMBH merger rate or GWAD.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The Loud Tail of the Supermassive Black Hole Binary Population: Multimessenger Candidates and Prospects for SKAO

We assess whether electromagnetically identified supermassive black hole (SMBH) binary candidates populate the rare, high-amplitude tail of the gravitational wave (GW) amplitude distribution. Using an SMBH binary population model fitted to the NANOGrav 15-year data, we find that 3C~66B and Mrk~501 are likely to stand out from the GW background, making them promising targets for individual-source searches. Furthermore, we show that individual detections can probe the binary hardening mechanism, as models with strong environmental hardening predict a higher abundance of individually resolvable binaries than purely GW-driven models. Applying the same population fits and accounting for the confusion noise from the unresolved population, we forecast that the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO) will resolve tens of individual binaries, with 3C~66B robustly detectable.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

A non-perturbative framework for N-point functions of locally non-Gaussian fields

We present a non-perturbative approach to correlation functions and polyspectra of locally non-Gaussian fields and develop a semi-perturbative framework that does not rely on a local expansion. This enables the computation of $N$-point functions of non-Gaussian fields even when the mapping between the auxiliary Gaussian field $ζ_{\rm G}$ and the non-Gaussian field $ζ({\bf x}) = F(ζ_{\rm G}({\bf x}))$ is non-analytic. As an example, we consider non-Gaussian fields with exponentially tailed distributions, which can arise, for instance, in ultra-slow-roll models of inflation, and derive some exact analytic results in the strongly non-Gaussian regime.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Primordial black holes: constraints, potential evidence and prospects

Primordial black holes (PBHs) may have formed in the early Universe and may account for all or part of the dark matter. In this review, we summarize the current observational constraints on PBHs across the full mass range, highlight potential evidence for their existence, and outline the prospects for future searches, particularly with gravitational-wave observatories. We also discuss different PBH formation scenarios, identify the corresponding mass functions, and present the observational constraints in each case.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The impact of non-Gaussianity when searching for Primordial Black Holes with LISA

LISA can observe cosmological millihertz (mHz) gravitational wave (GW) backgrounds that may offer a decisive test for asteroid-mass primordial black hole (PBH) dark matter (DM). In standard scenarios, failing to detect a scalar-induced gravitational wave (SIGW) background would exclude the last viable window for PBH DM formed through critical collapse. We show that this conclusion becomes much weaker in the presence of astrophysical foregrounds and strongly non-Gaussian primordial density perturbations, by studying how these phenomena affect the link between SIGWs and PBHs, and reevaluate LISA's sensitivity to asteroid-mass PBHs. In addition, we analyse the interplay between PBHs and SIGWs to gain further insights into the nature of primordial non-Gaussianity. We find that uncertainties in $f_{\rm NL}$ can induce substantial uncertainties in the PBH abundance, which ultimately limits LISA's capacity to fully probe the asteroid-mass PBH DM window.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Beware of the running $n_s$ when producing heavy primordial black holes

We examine single-field inflationary models for the formation of primordial black holes (PBHs). By analyzing the latest observations from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT)~\cite{ACT:2025fju, ACT:2025tim}, we demonstrate that the observed preference for positive running ($α_s$) of the scalar spectral index $n_s$ imposes significant restrictions on the parameter space for a large class of ultra-slow-roll (USR) models. This tension becomes progressively pronounced for more massive PBHs, posing substantial challenges for USR models to yield a detectable PBH abundance, especially in the mass range probed by ongoing and future gravitational-wave experiments such as LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA and the Einstein Telescope. However, this discrepancy is minimal for asteroid-mass PBHs, which are still capable of feasibly constituting the entirety of dark matter. To numerically probe the six-dimensional parameter space of the models, we adapted a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to efficiently scan over the viable configurations. Our results further indicate that, in non-minimally coupled polynomial inflation, a viable cosmic microwave background (CMB) spectrum is best obtained at an inflection point for which second-order slow-roll approximation is necessary for precise CMB predictions.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Quintessence and phantoms in light of DESI 2025

We analyse DESI BAO, CMB, and supernova data to explore the physical origin of the DESI indication for dynamical dark energy. Beyond the standard CPL parametrization, we explore truncated alternatives and quintessence models. We conclude that there is compelling evidence for dark energy to be decaying in the late universe, but the evidence for a phantom behaviour is less significant. Models without phantom behaviour are compatible with the data at the $2σ$ CL. Furthermore, we examine a concrete quintessence scenario with a Higgs-like potential, allowing for a direct comparison with parametrized approaches and testing its consistency with current observations. This framework enables a broader investigation of late-time cosmic evolution and reveals a $93.8\%$ preference for a future transition into an anti-de Sitter space, which may ultimately lead to a cosmological collapse of our Universe.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

How deep is the dip and how tall are the wiggles in inflationary power spectra?

We study linear scalar perturbations in single-field models of inflation featuring a non-attractor phase. These models lead to a peak in the curvature power spectrum that may result in the formation of primordial black holes. We develop a transfer-matrix formalism, analogous to the S-matrix program in quantum-field theory, that maps perturbations throughout the transitory phase. At scales smaller than the peak, the power spectrum features damped oscillations, and the duration of the transition sets the scale at which power-law damping switches to exponential damping. At scales larger than the peak, we demonstrate that a dip appears in the power spectrum if and only if the inflaton's velocity does not flip sign. We show that the amplitude at the dip always scales as the inverse square-rooted amplitude of the peak, and comment on the physical consequences of this universal relationship. We also test the robustness of our results with a few toy models and interpret them with an intuitive mechanical analogy.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Reconstructing Primordial Curvature Perturbations via Scalar-Induced Gravitational Waves with LISA

Many early universe scenarios predict an enhancement of scalar perturbations at scales currently unconstrained by cosmological probes. These perturbations source gravitational waves (GWs) at second order in perturbation theory, leading to a scalar-induced gravitational wave (SIGW) background. The LISA detector, sensitive to mHz GWs, will be able to constrain curvature perturbations in a new window corresponding to scales $k \in [10^{10}, 10^{14}] \,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, difficult to probe otherwise. In this work, we forecast the capabilities of LISA to constrain the source of SIGWs using different approaches: i) agnostic, where the spectrum of curvature perturbations is binned in frequency space; ii) template-based, modeling the curvature power spectrum based on motivated classes of models; iii) ab initio, starting from first-principles model of inflation featuring an ultra-slow roll phase. We compare the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. We also discuss the impact on the SIGW spectrum of non-standard thermal histories affecting the kernels of SIGW emission and non-Gaussianity in the statistics of the curvature perturbations. Finally, we propose simple tests to assess whether the signal is compatible with the SIGW hypothesis. The pipeline used is built into the SIGWAY code.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Interpreting DESI 2024 BAO: late-time dynamical dark energy or a local effect?

We perform fits to DESI, CMB and supernova data to understand the physical origin of the DESI hint for dynamical dark energy. We find that the linear parametrization of the equation of state $w$ may guide to misleading interpretations, such as the hint for a phantom Universe, which are not preferred by the data. Instead, physical quintessence models fit the data well. Model-independently, present observations prefer deviations from the constant dark energy, $w=-1$, only at very low redshifts, $z < \mathcal{O}(0.1)$. We find that this result is driven by low-$z$ supernova data. Therefore, either the fundamental properties of our Universe, characterised by the equation of state $w$ and the Hubble parameter $H$, underwent dramatic changes very recently or, alternatively, we do not fully understand the systematics of our local Universe in a radius of about $300\,h^{-1}\rm Mpc$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Fuzzy dark matter fails to explain the dark matter cores

Ultrafaint dwarf galaxies (UFDs) are ideal for studying dark matter (DM) due to minimal baryonic effects. UFD observations suggest cored DM profiles. We find that the core radius -- stellar mass scaling predicted by fuzzy dark matter (FDM) is at $6.1σ$ tension with UFD observations. Combining observations from 27 UFDs, the required FDM mass $m_a = 3.2_{-0.6}^{+0.8}\times 10^{-21}\,{\rm eV}$ is also in conflict with existing Lyman-$α$ bounds. Our results suggest that FDM cannot provide a consistent explanation for DM cores and imply $m_a > 2.2\times 10^{-21}\,{\rm eV}$ at to $2σ$ CL.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Eccentricity effects on the supermassive black hole gravitational wave background

We studied how eccentricity affects the gravitational wave (GW) spectrum from supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries. We developed a fast and accurate semi-analytic method for computing the GW spectra, the distribution for the spectral fluctuations and the correlations between different frequencies. As GW emission circularizes binaries, the suppression of the signal strength due to eccentricity is relevant for signals from wider binaries emitting at lower frequencies. Such a feature is present in the signal observed at pulsar timing arrays. We found that when orbital decay of the SMBH binaries is driven by GWs only, the shape of the observed signal preferred highly eccentric binaries $\langle e \rangle_{2\,{\rm nHz}} = 0.83^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$. However, when environmental effects were included, the initial eccentricity could be significantly lowered, yet the scenario with purely circular binaries was still mildly disfavored.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Statistics of the supermassive black hole gravitational wave background anisotropy

We study the statistical properties of the anisotropy in the gravitational wave (GW) background originating from supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries. We derive the distribution of the GW anisotropy power spectrum coefficients, $C_{l\geq1}/C_0$, in scenarios including environmental effects and eccentricities of the SMBH binaries. Although the mean of $C_{l\geq1}/C_0$ is the same for all multipoles, we show that their distributions vary, with the low $l$ distributions being the widest. We also find a strong correlation between spectral fluctuations and the anisotropy in the GW signal. We show that the GW anisotropy can break the degeneracy between the scenarios including environmental effects or eccentricity. In particular, we find that existing NANOGrav constraints on GW anisotropy begin to constrain SMBH scenarios with strong environmental effects.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Thermalization effects on the dynamics of growing vacuum bubbles

We study the evolution of growing vacuum bubbles. The bubble walls interact with the surrounding fluid and may, consequently, reach a terminal velocity. If the mean free path of the particles in the fluid is much shorter than the bubble wall thickness, the fluid is locally in thermal equilibrium and the wall's terminal velocity can be determined by entropy conservation. On the other hand, if local thermal equilibrium inside the wall cannot be maintained, the wall velocity can be estimated from the pressure impacted by ballistic particle dynamics at the wall. We find that the latter case leads to slightly slower bubble walls. Expectedly, we find the largest differences in the terminal velocity when the fluid is entirely ballistic. This observation indicates that the non-equilibrium effects inside walls are relevant. To study bubble evolution, we perform hydrodynamic lattice simulations in the case of local thermal equilibrium and $N$-body simulations in the ballistic case to investigate the dynamical effects during expansion. Both simulations show that even if a stationary solution exists in theory it may not be reached depending on the dynamics of the accelerating bubble walls.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2024

Formation of primordial black hole binaries and their merger rates

We review the theory behind the formation of primordial black hole binaries and their merger rates. We consider the binary formation in the early and late Universe, emphasising the former as it gives the dominant contribution of the present primordial black hole merger rate. The binaries formed in the early Universe are highly eccentric so their interactions with other primordial black holes can significantly increase their coalescence times and thereby suppress the merger rate. We discuss in detail how the suppression of the merger rate arising from such interactions can be estimated and how such interactions lead to the formation of another, much harder, binary population that contributes to the present merger rate if more than 10% of dark matter consists of primordial black holes with a relatively narrow mass distribution. When the primordial abundance is below 1%, encounters between primordial black holes are unlikely and their effect on the merger rate becomes negligible.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Consistency of JWST Black Hole Observations with NANOGrav Gravitational Wave Measurements

JWST observations have opened a new chapter in studies of supermassive black holes (SMBHs), stimulating discussion of two puzzles: the abundance of SMBHs in the early Universe and the fraction of dual AGNs. In this paper we argue that the answers to these puzzles may be linked to an interpretation of the data on the nHz gravitational wave (GWs) discovered by NANOGrav and other Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) in terms of SMBH binaries losing energy by interactions with their environments as well as by GW emission. According to this interpretation, the SMBHs in low-$z$ AGNs are the tip of the iceberg of the local SMBH population, which are mainly in inactive galaxies. This interpretation would favour the observability of GW signals from BH binaries in LISA and deciHz GW detectors.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Gravitational Waves from SMBH Binaries in Light of the NANOGrav 15-Year Data

The NANOGrav Collaboration has recently announced evidence for nHz gravitational waves (GWs), in the form of a Hellings-Downs angular correlation in the common-spectrum process that had been observed previously by them and other Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs). We analyze the possibility that these GWs originate from binary supermassive black holes (SMBHs) with total masses $\gtrsim 10^9\, M_{\odot}$. The spectral index of the GW signal differs at 95 % CL from that predicted for binary evolution by GW emission alone, and we find $> 3 σ$ evidence that environmental effects such as dynamical friction with gas, stars, and dark matter may be affecting the binary evolution. We estimate the required magnitude and spectrum of such environmental effects and comment on their possible implications for measurements of GWs at higher frequencies.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

What is the source of the PTA GW signal?

The most conservative interpretation of the nHz stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) discovered by NANOGrav and other Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) Collaborations is astrophysical, namely that it originates from supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries. However, alternative cosmological models have been proposed, including cosmic strings, phase transitions, domain walls, primordial fluctuations and "audible" axions. We perform a multi-model analysis (MMA) to compare how well these different hypotheses fit the NANOGrav data, both in isolation and in combination with SMBH binaries, and address the questions: Which interpretations fit the data best, and which are disfavoured? We also discuss experimental signatures that can help discriminate between different sources of the PTA GW signal, including fluctuations in the signal strength between frequency bins, individual sources and how the PTA signal extends to higher frequencies.

astro-ph.CO↗