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Harry Desmond

Publications and source records attributed to Harry Desmond.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Constraining dark matter halo profiles with symbolic regression

Dark matter haloes are typically characterised by radial density profiles with fixed forms motivated by simulations (e.g. NFW). However, simulation predictions depend on uncertain dark matter physics and baryonic modelling. Here, we present a method to constrain halo density profiles directly from observations using Exhaustive Symbolic Regression (ESR), a technique that searches the space of analytic expressions for the function that best balances accuracy and simplicity for a given dataset. We test the approach on mock weak lensing excess surface density (ESD) data of synthetic clusters with NFW profiles. Motivated by real data, we assign each ESD data point a constant fractional uncertainty and vary this uncertainty and the number of clusters to probe how data precision and sample size affect model selection. For fractional errors around 5%, ESR recovers the NFW profile even from samples as small as 20 clusters. At higher uncertainties representative of current surveys, simpler functions are favoured over NFW, though it remains competitive. This preference arises because weak lensing errors are smallest in the outskirts, causing the fits to be dominated by the outer profile. ESR therefore provides a robust, simulation-independent framework both for testing mass models and determining which features of a halo's density profile are genuinely constrained by the data.

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The Velocity Field Olympics: Assessing velocity field reconstructions with direct distance tracers

The peculiar velocity field of the local Universe provides direct insights into its matter distribution and the underlying theory of gravity, and is essential in cosmological analyses for modelling deviations from the Hubble flow. Numerous methods have been developed to reconstruct the density and velocity fields at $z \lesssim 0.05$, typically constrained by redshift-space galaxy positions or by direct distance tracers such as the Tully-Fisher relation, the fundamental plane, or Type Ia supernovae. We introduce a validation framework to evaluate the accuracy of these reconstructions against catalogues of direct distance tracers. Our framework assesses the goodness-of-fit of each reconstruction using Bayesian evidence, residual redshift discrepancies, velocity scaling, and the need for external bulk flows. Applying this framework to a suite of reconstructions -- including those derived from the Bayesian Origin Reconstruction from Galaxies (BORG) algorithm and from linear theory -- we find that the non-linear BORG reconstruction consistently outperforms others. We highlight the utility of such a comparative approach for supernova or gravitational wave cosmological studies, where selecting an optimal peculiar velocity model is essential. Additionally, we present calibrated bulk flow curves predicted by the reconstructions and perform a density--velocity cross-correlation using a linear theory reconstruction to constrain the growth factor, yielding $S_8 = 0.793 \pm 0.035$. The result is in good agreement with both weak lensing and Planck, but is in strong disagreement with some peculiar velocity studies.

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No evidence for local $H_0$ anisotropy from Tully--Fisher or supernova distances

Claims of local ($z \lesssim 0.05$) anisotropy in the Hubble constant have been made based on direct distance tracers such as Tully-Fisher galaxies and Type Ia supernovae. We revisit these using the CosmicFlows-4 Tully-Fisher W1 subsample, 2MTF and SFI++ Tully-Fisher catalogues, and the Pantheon+ supernova compilation (all restricted to $z < 0.05$), including a dipole in either the Tully-Fisher zero-point or the standardised supernova absolute magnitude. Our forward-modelling framework jointly calibrates the distance relation, marginalises over distances, and accounts for peculiar velocities using a linear-theory reconstruction. We compare the anisotropic and isotropic model using the Bayesian evidence. In the CosmicFlows-4 sample, we infer a zero-point dipole of amplitude $0.087 \pm 0.019$ mag, or $4.1\pm0.9$ per cent when expressed as a dipole in the Hubble parameter. This is consistent with previous estimates but at higher significance: model comparison yields odds of $877:1$ in favour of including the zero-point dipole. In Pantheon+ we infer zero-point dipole amplitude of $0.049 \pm 0.013$ mag, or $2.3\pm 0.6$ per cent when expressed as a dipole in the Hubble parameter. However, by allowing for a radially varying velocity dipole, we show that the anisotropic zero-point model captures local flow features (or possibly systematics) in the data rather than an actual linearly growing effective bulk flow caused by anisotropy in the zero-point or expansion rate. Crucially, inferring a more general bulk flow curve we find results fully consistent with expectations from the standard cosmological model.

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Testing the local supervoid solution to the Hubble tension with direct distance tracers

Several observational studies suggest that the local few hundred Mpc around the Local Group are significantly underdense based on source number counts in redshift space across much of the electromagnetic spectrum, particularly in near-infrared galaxy counts. This ``Keenan--Barger--Cowie (KBC) void'', ``Local Hole'', or ``local supervoid'', would have significant ramifications for the Hubble tension by generating outflows that masquerade as an enhanced local expansion rate. We evaluate models for the KBC void capable of resolving the Hubble tension with a background Planck cosmology. We fit these models to direct distances from the Tully--Fisher catalogue of the CosmicFlows-4 compilation using a field-level forward model. Depending on the adopted void density profile, we find the derived velocity fields to prefer a void size of less than 70 Mpc, which is less than 10 per cent of the fiducial size found by Haslbauer et al. based on the KBC luminosity density data. The predicted local Hubble constant is $72.1^{+0.9}_{-0.8}$, $70.4^{+0.4}_{-0.4}$, or $70.2^{+0.5}_{-0.4}$ km/s/Mpc for an initial underdensity profile that is exponential, Gaussian, or Maxwell-Boltzmann, respectively. The latter two ameliorate the Hubble tension to within $3σ$ of the 4-anchor distance ladder approach of Breuval et al. giving $73.2 \pm 0.9$ km/s/Mpc. The exponential profile does achieve consistency with this measurement at just over $1σ$, but it is disfavoured by the Bayesian evidence. The preferred models produce bulk flow curves that disagree with recent estimates from CosmicFlows-4, despite the void models being flexible enough to match such estimates.

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On the consistency of rotation curves and spatially integrated HI flux profiles

Resolved rotation curves (RCs) are the gold-standard measurements for inferring dark matter distributions in $Λ$CDM and testing alternative theories of dynamics in galaxies. However they are expensive to obtain, making them prohibitive for large galaxy samples and at higher redshift. Spatially integrated HI flux profiles are more accessible and present the information in a different form, but -- except in a highly compressed form, as linewidths -- have not so far been compared in detail with RCs or employed for dynamical inferences. Here we study the consistency of RCs and HI surface density profiles from SPARC with spatially integrated HI flux profiles from ALFALFA, by combining the resolved properties in a forward model for the flux profile. We define a new metric for asymmetry in the flux profiles, enabling us to cleanly identify those unsuitable for our axisymmetric method. Among all SPARC galaxies the agreement between RCs and flux profiles is satisfactory within the limitations of the data -- with most galaxies having an uncertainty normalised mean squared error (MSE) below 10 -- while no galaxy deemed symmetric has a MSE above 1.2. Most cases of good agreement prefer a HI gas dispersion $σ_{\mathrm{HI}}$ of ~13 km/s, consistent with resolved studies of gas dispersion from the literature. These results open the door for spatially integrated HI flux profiles to be used as proxies for spatially resolved dynamics, including a robust appraisal of the degree of asymmetry.

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(Exhaustive) Symbolic Regression and model selection by minimum description length

Symbolic regression is the machine learning method for learning functions from data. After a brief overview of the symbolic regression landscape, I will describe the two main challenges that traditional algorithms face: they have an unknown (and likely significant) probability of failing to find any given good function, and they suffer from ambiguity and poorly-justified assumptions in their function-selection procedure. To address these I propose an exhaustive search and model selection by the minimum description length principle, which allows accuracy and complexity to be directly traded off by measuring each in units of information. I showcase the resulting publicly available Exhaustive Symbolic Regression algorithm on three open problems in astrophysics: the expansion history of the universe, the effective behaviour of gravity in galaxies and the potential of the inflaton field. In each case the algorithm identifies many functions superior to the literature standards. This general purpose methodology should find widespread utility in science and beyond.

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MIGHTEE-HI: The radial acceleration relation with resolved stellar mass measurements

The radial acceleration relation (RAR) is a fundamental relation linking baryonic and dark matter in galaxies by relating the observed acceleration derived from dynamics to the one estimated from the baryonic mass. This relation exhibits small scatter, thus providing key constraints for models of galaxy formation and evolution -- allowing us to map the distribution of dark matter in galaxies -- as well as models of modified dynamics. However, it has only been extensively studied in the very local Universe with largely heterogeneous samples. We present a new measurement of the RAR, utilising a homogeneous sample of 19 HI-selected galaxies out to $z=0.08$. We introduce a novel approach of measuring resolved stellar masses using spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting across 10 photometric bands to determine the resolved mass-to-light ratio, which we show is essential for measuring the acceleration due to baryons in the low-acceleration regime. Our results reveal a tight RAR with a low-acceleration power-law slope of $\sim 0.5$, consistent with previous studies. Adopting a spatially varying mass-to-light ratio yields the tightest RAR with an intrinsic scatter of only $0.045 \pm 0.022$ dex, highlighting the importance of resolved stellar mass measurements in accurately characterising the gravitational contribution of the baryons in low-mass, gas-rich galaxies. We also find the first tentative evidence for redshift evolution in the acceleration scale, but more data will be required to confirm this. Adopting a more general MOND interpolating function, we find that our results ameliorate the tension between previous RAR analyses, the Solar System quadrupole and wide-binary test.

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Consistencies and inconsistencies in redshift-independent distances

Redshift-independent distances underpin much of astrophysics, and there exists a plethora of methods to estimate them. However, the extent to which the distances they imply are consistent, while crucial for the integrity of the distance ladder, has been little explored. We construct a statistical framework to assess both internal (between measurements with the same method) and external (between-method) consistency by comparing differences between distances to their quoted statistical uncertainties in the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database of Distances (NED-D). 66 of the 76 indicators in NED-D are amenable to a consistency test by having at least two measurements to the same galaxy or at least one measurement to a galaxy also measured by another method. We find that only 12 of these methods produce self-consistent distances across literature determinations, of which 7 are also consistent with distances to the same galaxies measured by all other methods. The most consistent 6 methods (M-stars luminosity, Novae, Masers, Globular Cluster Fundamental Plane, O- and B-type Supergiants and BL Lac Luminosity) also give similar average distances to the mean of all indicators, while the 7th (Proper Motion) underestimates distances relative to the mean by 17.1%. We also investigate consistency of Cepheid distances in the SH0ES 2022 catalogue, finding no evidence for unaccounted-for systematics. Our NED-D results imply that considerable work remains to obtain reliable distances by a multitude of methods, a crucial endeavour for constructing a multiply cross-checked and fully robust distance ladder. We make our code publicly available.

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syren-baryon: Analytic emulators for the impact of baryons on the matter power spectrum

Baryonic physics has a considerable impact on the distribution of matter in our Universe on scales probed by current and future cosmological surveys, acting as a key systematic in such analyses. We seek simple symbolic parametrisations for the impact of baryonic physics on the matter power spectrum for a range of physically motivated models, as a function of wavenumber, redshift, cosmology, and parameters controlling the baryonic feedback. We use symbolic regression to construct analytic approximations for the ratio of the matter power spectrum in the presence of baryons to that without such effects. We obtain separate functions of each of four distinct sub-grid prescriptions of baryonic physics from the CAMELS suite of hydrodynamical simulations (Astrid, IllustrisTNG, SIMBA and Swift-EAGLE) as well as for a baryonification algorithm. We also provide functions which describe the uncertainty on these predictions, due to both the stochastic nature of baryonic physics and the errors on our fits. The error on our approximations to the hydrodynamical simulations is comparable to the sample variance estimated through varying initial conditions, and our baryonification expression has a root mean squared error of better than one percent, although this increases on small scales. These errors are comparable to those of previous numerical emulators for these models. Our expressions are enforced to have the physically correct behaviour on large scales and at high redshift. Due to their analytic form, we are able to directly interpret the impact of varying cosmology and feedback parameters, and we can identify parameters which have little to no effect. Each function is based on a different implementation of baryonic physics, and can therefore be used to discriminate between these models when applied to real data. We provide publicly available code for all symbolic approximations found.

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Modified Newtonian Dynamics: Observational Successes and Failures

Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) is an alternative to the dark matter hypothesis that attempts to explain the "missing gravity" problem in astrophysics and cosmology through a modification to objects' dynamics. Since its conception in 1983, MOND has had a chequered history. Some phenomena difficult to understand in standard cosmology MOND explains remarkably well, most notably galaxies' radial dynamics encapsulated in the Radial Acceleration Relation. But for others it falls flat -- mass discrepancies in clusters are not fully accounted for, the Solar System imposes a constraint on the shape of the MOND modification seemingly incompatible with that from galaxies, and non-radial motions are poorly predicted. An experiment that promised to be decisive -- the wide binary test -- has produced mainly confusion. This article summarises the good, the bad and the ugly of MOND's observational existence. I argue that despite its imperfections it does possess ongoing relevance: there may yet be crucial insight to be gleaned from it.

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Challenges to a sharp change in $G$ as a solution to the Hubble tension

It has been proposed that the gravitational constant $G$ abruptly decreased around 130 Myr ago, making Type Ia supernovae (SNe) in the Hubble flow intrinsically brighter than those in host galaxies with Cepheid distances. This would make Hubble flow SNe more distant, causing redshifts to rise slower with distance, potentially solving the Hubble tension. We explore a wide range of unattractive consequences of this ``$G$ step model'' (GSM). We find that since the luminosities of Sun-like stars scale as approximately $G^{5.6}$, the Solar luminosity would have dropped substantially 130 Myr ago in this scenario, likely pushing Earth into a planetary glaciation. However, there was no Snowball Earth episode in the last 500 Myr. The GSM also implies that the length of a year would have abruptly increased by about 10%, but the number of days per year has evolved broadly continuously according to geochronometry and cyclostratigraphy. The GSM would considerably alter stellar evolution, causing the Sun to have exhausted about 2/3 of its fuel supply rather than 1/2. This would make the Sun's helioseismic age exceed that of the oldest meteorite samples, but these agree excellently in practice. The expected age of the Universe also agrees well with that of the oldest Galactic stars assuming constant $G$. The GSM however implies these stars are younger, creating a lack of stars from the first 3 Gyr of cosmic history. These arguments pose significant challenges to models seeking to resolve the Hubble tension through a transition in $G$.

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No evidence for anisotropy in galaxy spin directions

Modern cosmology rests on the cosmological principle, that on large enough scales the Universe is both homogeneous and isotropic. A corollary is that galaxies' spin vectors should be isotropically distributed on the sky. This has been challenged by multiple authors for over a decade, with claims to have detected a statistically significant dipole pattern of spins. We collect all publicly available datasets with spin classifications (binary Z-wise/S-wise), and analyse them for large-angle anisotropies ($\ell \le 2$). We perform each inference in both a Bayesian and frequentist fashion, the former establishing posterior probabilities on the multipole parameters and the latter calculating $p$-values for rejection of the null hypothesis of isotropy (i.e. no power at $\ell>0$). All analysis indicate consistency with isotropy to within $3σ$. We similarly identify no evidence for a "hemisphere anisotropy" that neglects the angular dependence of the dipole. We isolate the differences with contrary claims in the ad hoc or biased statistics that they employ. Our code is publicly available.

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Symmetry in Hyper Suprime-Cam galaxy spin directions

We perform a Bayesian analysis of anisotropy in binary galaxy spin directions in the Hyper-Suprime Cam Data Release 3 catalogue, in response to a recent claim that it exhibits a dipole (Shamir 2024). We find no significant evidence for anisotropy, or for a direction-independent spin probability that differs from 0.5. These results are unchanged allowing for a quadrupole or simply searching for a fixed anisotropy between any two hemispheres, and the Bayes factor indicates decisive evidence for the isotropic model. Our principled method contrasts with the statistic employed by Shamir 2024, which lacks a strong theoretical foundation.

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Evaluating the variance of individual halo properties in constrained cosmological simulations

Constrained cosmological simulations play an important role in modelling the local Universe, enabling investigation of the dark matter content of local structures and their formation. We introduce an internal method for quantifying the extent to which the variance of individual halo properties is suppressed by the constraints imposed on the initial conditions. We apply it to the Constrained Simulations in BORG (CSiBORG) suite of $101$ high-resolution realisations across the posterior probability distribution of initial conditions from the Bayesian Origin Reconstruction from Galaxies (BORG) algorithm. The method is based on the overlap of the initial Lagrangian patch of a halo in one simulation with those in another, measuring the degree to which the haloes' particles are initially coincident. This addresses the extent to which the imposed large-scale structure constraints reduce the variance of individual halo properties. We find consistent reconstructions of $M\gtrsim10^{14}~M_\odot / h$ haloes, indicating that the constraints from the BORG algorithm are sufficient to pin down the masses, positions, and peculiar velocities of clusters to high precision, though we do not assess how well they reproduce observations of the local Universe. The effect of the constraints tapers off towards lower mass, and the halo spins and concentrations are largely unconstrained at all masses. We document the advantages of evaluating halo consistency in the initial conditions and describe how the method may be used to quantify our knowledge of the halo field given galaxy survey data analysed through the lens of probabilistic inference machines such as BORG.

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syren-new: Precise formulae for the linear and nonlinear matter power spectra with massive neutrinos and dynamical dark energy

Current and future large scale structure surveys aim to constrain the neutrino mass and the equation of state of dark energy. We aim to construct accurate and interpretable symbolic approximations to the linear and nonlinear matter power spectra as a function of cosmological parameters in extended $Λ$CDM models which contain massive neutrinos and non-constant equations of state for dark energy. This constitutes an extension of the syren-halofit emulators to incorporate these two effects, which we call syren-new (SYmbolic-Regression-ENhanced power spectrum emulator with NEutrinos and $W_0-w_a$). We also obtain a simple approximation to the derived parameter $σ_8$ as a function of the cosmological parameters for these models. Our results for the linear power spectrum are designed to emulate CLASS, whereas for the nonlinear case we aim to match the results of EuclidEmulator2. We compare our results to existing emulators and $N$-body simulations. Our analytic emulators for $σ_8$, the linear and nonlinear power spectra achieve root mean squared errors of 0.1%, 0.3% and 1.3%, respectively, across a wide range of cosmological parameters, redshifts and wavenumbers. We verify that emulator-related discrepancies are subdominant compared to observational errors and other modelling uncertainties when computing shear power spectra for LSST-like surveys. Our expressions have similar accuracy to existing (numerical) emulators, but are at least an order of magnitude faster, both on a CPU and GPU. Our work greatly improves the accuracy, speed and range of applicability of current symbolic approximations to the linear and nonlinear matter power spectra. We provide publicly available code for all symbolic approximations found.

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Testing screened modified gravity with SDSS-IV-MaNGA

Fifth forces are ubiquitous in modified gravity theories, and must be screened to evade stringent local tests. This can introduce unusual behaviour in galaxy phenomenology by affecting galaxies' components differently. Here we use the SDSS-IV-MaNGA dataset to search for a systematic excess of gas circular velocity over stellar circular velocity, expected in thin-shell-screened theories in the partially screened regime. Accounting for asymmetric drift and calibrating our model on screened subsamples, we find no significant evidence for a screened fifth force. We bound the fifth-force strength to $ΔG/G_\text{N} < 0.1$ for all astrophysical ranges, strengthening to $\sim$0.01 at Compton wavelength of 3 Mpc for the Hu-Sawicki model, for instance. This implies a stringent constraint on scalar-tensor theories, for example $f_{\mathcal{R}0} \lesssim 10^{-8}$ in Hu-Sawicki $f(\mathcal{R})$ gravity.

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Dark matter halo properties from spatially integrated HI flux profiles

Resolved rotation curves (RCs) are our best probe of the dark matter distribution around individual galaxies. However their acquisition is resource-intensive, rendering them impractical for large-scale surveys and studies at higher redshift. Spatially integrated HI flux profiles on the other hand are observationally abundant and also probe dynamics across the whole HI disc. Despite this, they are typically only studied using the highly compressed linewidth summary statistic, discarding much of the available information. Here we construct a Bayesian model to infer halo properties from the full shape of the spatially integrated 21-cm line profile of a galaxy, utilising all the available information. We validate our model by assessing the consistency of halo parameters obtained from the flux profile with those obtained from RC fits for galaxies where both are available, finding good agreement provided the profile is not strongly asymmetric. We study the relative constraining power (quantified using the Kullback--Leibler divergence of the posterior from the prior), finding the flux profile inference recovers posteriors on generalised Navarro--Frenk--White halo parameters on average three times tighter than those from the linewidth, and in some cases as tight as those from resolved RCs. Finally we introduce and validate a probabilistic empirical model for the spatial distribution of HI, enabling our model to be applied to datasets for which no spatially resolved HI information is available. As the next-generation of HI observatories comes online, our framework will enable mass modelling in new regimes, with particular utility for constraining the dark matter content of galaxies across cosmic time.

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A precise symbolic emulator of the linear matter power spectrum

Computing the matter power spectrum, $P(k)$, as a function of cosmological parameters can be prohibitively slow in cosmological analyses, hence emulating this calculation is desirable. Previous analytic approximations are insufficiently accurate for modern applications, so black-box, uninterpretable emulators are often used. We utilise an efficient genetic programming based symbolic regression framework to explore the space of potential mathematical expressions which can approximate the power spectrum and $σ_8$. We learn the ratio between an existing low-accuracy fitting function for $P(k)$ and that obtained by solving the Boltzmann equations and thus still incorporate the physics which motivated this earlier approximation. We obtain an analytic approximation to the linear power spectrum with a root mean squared fractional error of 0.2% between $k = 9\times10^{-3} - 9 \, h{\rm \, Mpc^{-1}}$ and across a wide range of cosmological parameters, and we provide physical interpretations for various terms in the expression. Our analytic approximation is 950 times faster to evaluate than camb and 36 times faster than the neural network based matter power spectrum emulator BACCO. We also provide a simple analytic approximation for $σ_8$ with a similar accuracy, with a root mean squared fractional error of just 0.1% when evaluated across the same range of cosmologies. This function is easily invertible to obtain $A_{\rm s}$ as a function of $σ_8$ and the other cosmological parameters, if preferred. It is possible to obtain symbolic approximations to a seemingly complex function at a precision required for current and future cosmological analyses without resorting to deep-learning techniques, thus avoiding their black-box nature and large number of parameters. Our emulator will be usable long after the codes on which numerical approximations are built become outdated.

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