arXiv subjects

Hisashi Kashima

Publications and source records attributed to Hisashi Kashima.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Disentangling Steering Vectors

Activation steering has emerged as a lightweight, inference-time approach to control the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, traditional steering vectors used to intervene in LLMs' activations, such as those derived from the difference-in-means method, tend to entangle multiple semantic and stylistic concepts into a single composite direction, leading to unpredictable steering effects. Our core objective is to disentangle this composite direction into its constituent concepts. To this end, we propose Steering Vector Dissection, a framework to explicitly isolate individual and semantically consistent features from these composite directions. Specifically, we pair positive and negative activations and take their differences to generate a set of instance-level steering vectors, and train a dedicated Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) directly on them. Quantitative evaluations across two datasets, two models, and two intervention depths show that our method yields a set of semantically consistent basis vectors whose steering effects are mutually distinguishable. Furthermore, we show that this disentanglement enables precise control over model behaviors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CASTANET: Causality-Aware Spatio-Temporal Adversarial Network Using Traffic Incident Effects

Predicting non-periodic traffic congestion caused by sudden incidents (e.g., accidents and road damage) is crucial for advanced intelligent transportation systems. However, incident-driven congestion is difficult to forecast because incidents are extremely sparse, occur at specific times and locations, and have heterogeneous impacts depending on the traffic context. While recent deep learning approaches have significantly improved periodic traffic forecasting, their performance on non-periodic congestion remains limited, partly because incident records are not explicitly incorporated and their occurrence is strongly biased in space and time. To address these challenges, we propose CASTANET, which integrates spatio-temporal graph neural networks and causal treatment effect estimation to utilize incident records while mitigating selection bias. Experiments on real-world traffic data and accident records from Tokyo, which we treat as incidents, show that CASTANET reduces RMSE by 4.0% overall compared to the best baseline and by 10.1% on incident-conditioned evaluation, with gains reaching 14.55% under severe congestion.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Predicting Drafted Deck Strength for "Magic: the Gathering"

Many real-world games do not admit a fixed, compact rule set: instead, their dynamics are defined by interactions among a large and often evolving collection of game pieces, making general-purpose policy learning impractical. Magic: the Gathering (MTG) exemplifies this setting, where the cards themselves define and alter gameplay rules, strategic constraints, and long-term outcomes, while the pool of available cards is ever-changing. We study Draft, a constrained deck-building format of MTG in which eight players make 39-45 sequential selections from semi-random packs to construct a 40-card deck under partial information. By isolating the card selection process from gameplay, Draft provides a tractable yet non-trivial setting for studying decision-making driven by combinatorial card synergies. We propose an encoder-based model that produces set-contextualized card embeddings to encode the draft decision sequence, with a consistent improvement over linear baselines on large-scale real-world data, establishing a first learned benchmark for outcome prediction in MTG Draft. Our code is available at github.com/akulen/MtGDraftEncoder.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Cross-device Collaborative Test-time Adaptation with Zeroth-order Optimization and Model Merging

Test-time adaptation (TTA) mitigates domain shifts by using incoming test data to update a model on the fly. The majority of TTA methods require resource-intensive backpropagation (BP) for model updates, particularly demanding large memory sizes, which makes it infeasible to deploy them on resource-limited devices (e.g., edge devices). To address this issue, we integrate two different techniques, zeroth-order optimization (ZOO) and model merging, under the recently established cross-device collaborative TTA (CDC-TTA) framework, where the system is composed of a mixture of resource-abundant and resource-limited devices, and the model information (e.g., model weights obtained on each device) is shared across the devices. Our method is executable on resource-limited devices by introducing ZOO, which requires only forward processing and bypasses the resource-intensive BP optimization. Concurrently, to mitigate the high-dimensional optimization difficulty caused by the side effect of ZOO, we incorporate model merging of the shared multiple models and set the merge coefficients as the optimization objective, which successfully reduces the optimization dimension. In addition, to enhance the synergistic combination of ZOO and model merging, we propose a unique preprocessing strategy that trims intra-model non-influential weights and reduces the inter-model information redundancy. We empirically confirmed the effectiveness of our method using common corruption and style-transferred image benchmarks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Treatment Effect Estimation with Differentiated Networked Effect on Graph Data

Estimating individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational graph data is crucial for decision-making in the fields such as commerce and medicine. This task is challenging due to interference, where individual outcomes can be influenced by the treatments and covariates of their neighbors. Existing methods attempt to model such interference for accurate ITE estimation. However, a critical issue is often overlooked: differentiated networked effect (DNE), an effect caused by local networks consisting of neighbors with varying importance and scales. Capturing DNE is vital; otherwise, we will end up with imprecise ITE estimation due to an erroneous characterization of interference, which can result in misguided decisions. To address this challenge, we propose a novel interference modeling mechanism that incorporates two partial attention mechanisms and a message amplifier. The partial attention mechanisms automatically estimate the importance of different neighbors in contributing to interference, while the message amplifier adjusts the results of the interference modeling mechanism based on the scale of neighbors, all of which enables the model to capture DNE. Experiments on three real-world graphs demonstrate that our methods outperform existing approaches for ITE estimation from graph data, which corroborates the importance of explicitly capturing DNE.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Estimating Learners' Skill Acquisition Without Temporal Information

Recent research in educational data mining, especially knowledge tracing, has focused on predicting learners' future knowledge states to support adaptive instruction. However, in many real-world educational settings, learning data are often available only as single-time-point assessments without temporal information, making existing time-series-based approaches difficult to apply. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for predicting future skill acquisition using only snapshot data. Specifically, we address the problem of predicting the next skill to be acquired from skill mastery patterns estimated by cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs). In the absence of temporal information, we exploit inclusion relations among learners' skill sets to induce a pseudo-temporal ordering, interpreting expanding skill sets as a proxy for learning progression. To efficiently approximate unobserved acquisition paths, we introduce a neural model that captures latent skill acquisition dynamics through expected skill increments. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms baseline approaches, with particularly strong advantages as the skill space becomes larger. These results indicate that meaningful skill acquisition patterns can be inferred from snapshot data alone, providing a practical framework for adaptive learning support in data-constrained educational environments.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Long-Term Outlier Prediction Through Outlier Score Modeling

This study addresses an important gap in time series outlier detection by proposing a novel problem setting: long-term outlier prediction. Conventional methods primarily focus on immediate detection by identifying deviations from normal patterns. As a result, their applicability is limited when forecasting outlier events far into the future. To overcome this limitation, we propose a simple and unsupervised two-layer method that is independent of specific models. The first layer performs standard outlier detection, and the second layer predicts future outlier scores based on the temporal structure of previously observed outliers. This framework enables not only pointwise detection but also long-term forecasting of outlier likelihoods. Experiments on synthetic datasets show that the proposed method performs well in both detection and prediction tasks. These findings suggest that the method can serve as a strong baseline for future work in outlier detection and forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Discovery of Interpretable Audio Attributes with Multimodal LLMs for Low-Resource Classification

In predictive modeling for low-resource audio classification, extracting high-accuracy and interpretable attributes is critical. Particularly in high-reliability applications, interpretable audio attributes are indispensable. While human-driven attribute discovery is effective, its low throughput becomes a bottleneck. We propose a method for adaptively discovering interpretable audio attributes using Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). By replacing humans in the AdaFlock framework with MLLMs, our method achieves significantly faster attribute discovery. Our method dynamically identifies salient acoustic characteristics via prompting and constructs an attribute-based ensemble classifier. Experimental results across various audio tasks demonstrate that our method outperforms direct MLLM prediction in the majority of evaluated cases. The entire training completes within 11 minutes, proving it a practical, adaptive solution that surpasses conventional human-reliant approaches.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2026

MACC: Multi-Agent Collaborative Competition for Scientific Exploration

Scientific discovery still relies heavily on the manual efforts of individual researchers, leading to limited exploration, redundant trials, and reduced reproducibility. Human-participant data analysis competitions generate diverse approaches, yet fluctuations in participation and the lack of independent repetitions show that parallel exploration alone is insufficient for achieving reliable scientific inquiry. As advanced AI agents based on large language models (LLMs) increasingly perform analytical tasks, relying on a single highly capable agent is unlikely to overcome these structural limitations. Recent work has begun to explore how multiple LLM-based agents can collaborate or compete in scientific workflows-a growing trend we refer to as MA4Science. However, most existing MA4Science studies assume that all agents are controlled by a single organizational entity, limiting their ability to examine how institutional mechanisms-such as incentives, information sharing, and reproducibility-shape collective exploration among independently managed agents. To address this gap, we introduce MACC (Multi-Agent Collaborative Competition), an institutional architecture that integrates a blackboard-style shared scientific workspace with incentive mechanisms designed to encourage transparency, reproducibility, and exploration efficiency. MACC provides a testbed for studying how institutional design influences scalable and reliable multi-agent scientific exploration.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

Evaluating Cross-Modal Reasoning Ability and Problem Characteristics with Multimodal Item Response Theory

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have recently emerged as general architectures capable of reasoning over diverse modalities. Benchmarks for MLLMs should measure their ability for cross-modal integration. However, current benchmarks are filled with shortcut questions, which can be solved using only a single modality, thereby yielding unreliable rankings. For example, in vision-language cases, we can find the correct answer without either the image or the text. These low-quality questions unnecessarily increase the size and computational requirements of benchmarks. We introduce a multi-modal and multidimensional item response theory framework (M3IRT) that extends classical IRT by decomposing both model ability and item difficulty into image-only, text-only, and cross-modal components. M3IRT estimates cross-modal ability of MLLMs and each question's cross-modal difficulty, enabling compact, high-quality subsets that better reflect multimodal reasoning. Across 24 VLMs on three benchmarks, M3IRT prioritizes genuinely cross-modal questions over shortcuts and preserves ranking fidelity even when 50% of items are artificially generated low-quality questions, thereby reducing evaluation cost while improving reliability. M3IRT thus offers a practical tool for assessing cross-modal reasoning and refining multimodal benchmarks.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Probability Bounding: Post-Hoc Calibration via Box-Constrained Softmax

Many studies have observed that modern neural networks achieve high accuracy while producing poorly calibrated probabilities, making calibration a critical practical issue. In this work, we propose probability bounding (PB), a novel post-hoc calibration method that mitigates both underconfidence and overconfidence by learning lower and upper bounds on the output probabilities. To implement PB, we introduce the box-constrained softmax (BCSoftmax) function, a generalization of Softmax that explicitly enforces lower and upper bounds on the output probabilities. While BCSoftmax is formulated as the solution to a box-constrained optimization problem, we develop an exact and efficient algorithm for computing BCSoftmax. We further provide theoretical guarantees for PB and introduce two variants of PB. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods experimentally on four real-world datasets, consistently reducing calibration errors. Our Python implementation is available at https://github.com/neonnnnn/torchbcsoftmax.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Quality-Diversity Trade-offs for Large-Scale Batch Recommendation

A core research question in recommender systems is to propose batches of highly relevant and diverse items, that is, items personalized to the user's preferences, but which also might get the user out of their comfort zone. This diversity might induce properties of serendipidity and novelty which might increase user engagement or revenue. However, many real-life problems arise in that case: e.g., avoiding to recommend distinct but too similar items to reduce the churn risk, and computational cost for large item libraries, up to millions of items. First, we consider the case when the user feedback model is perfectly observed and known in advance, and introduce an efficient algorithm called B-DivRec combining determinantal point processes and a fuzzy denuding procedure to adjust the degree of item diversity. This helps enforcing a quality-diversity trade-off throughout the user history. Second, we propose an approach to adaptively tailor the quality-diversity trade-off to the user, so that diversity in recommendations can be enhanced if it leads to positive feedback, and vice-versa. Finally, we illustrate the performance and versatility of B-DivRec in the two settings on synthetic and real-life data sets on movie recommendation and drug repurposing.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Counterfactual Evaluation for Blind Attack Detection in LLM-based Evaluation Systems

This paper investigates defenses for LLM-based evaluation systems against prompt injection. We formalize a class of threats called blind attacks, where a candidate answer is crafted independently of the true answer to deceive the evaluator. To counter such attacks, we propose a framework that augments Standard Evaluation (SE) with Counterfactual Evaluation (CFE), which re-evaluates the submission against a deliberately false ground-truth answer. An attack is detected if the system validates an answer under both standard and counterfactual conditions. Experiments show that while standard evaluation is highly vulnerable, our SE+CFE framework significantly improves security by boosting attack detection with minimal performance trade-offs.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2025

Robust Anomaly Detection Under Normality Distribution Shift in Dynamic Graphs

Anomaly detection in dynamic graphs is a critical task with broad real-world applications, including social networks, e-commerce, and cybersecurity. Most existing methods assume that normal patterns remain stable over time; however, this assumption often fails in practice due to the phenomenon we refer to as normality distribution shift (NDS), where normal behaviors evolve over time. Ignoring NDS can lead models to misclassify shifted normal instances as anomalies, degrading detection performance. To tackle this issue, we propose WhENDS, a novel unsupervised anomaly detection method that aligns normal edge embeddings across time by estimating distributional statistics and applying whitening transformations. Extensive experiments on four widely-used dynamic graph datasets show that WhENDS consistently outperforms nine strong baselines, achieving state-of-the-art results and underscoring the importance of addressing NDS in dynamic graph anomaly detection.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Unpacking the Implicit Norm Dynamics of Sharpness-Aware Minimization in Tensorized Models

Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) has been proven to be an effective optimization technique for improving generalization in overparameterized models. While prior works have explored the implicit regularization of SAM in simple two-core scale-invariant settings, its behavior in more general tensorized or scale-invariant models remains underexplored. In this work, we leverage scale-invariance to analyze the norm dynamics of SAM in general tensorized models. We introduce the notion of \emph{Norm Deviation} as a global measure of core norm imbalance, and derive its evolution under SAM using gradient flow analysis. We show that SAM's implicit control of Norm Deviation is governed by the covariance between core norms and their gradient magnitudes. Motivated by these findings, we propose a simple yet effective method, \emph{Deviation-Aware Scaling (DAS)}, which explicitly mimics this regularization behavior by scaling core norms in a data-adaptive manner. Our experiments across tensor completion, noisy training, model compression, and parameter-efficient fine-tuning confirm that DAS achieves competitive or improved performance over SAM, while offering reduced computational overhead.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Hierarchical Text Classification Using Black Box Large Language Models

Hierarchical Text Classification (HTC) aims to assign texts to structured label hierarchies; however, it faces challenges due to data scarcity and model complexity. This study explores the feasibility of using black box Large Language Models (LLMs) accessed via APIs for HTC, as an alternative to traditional machine learning methods that require extensive labeled data and computational resources. We evaluate three prompting strategies -- Direct Leaf Label Prediction (DL), Direct Hierarchical Label Prediction (DH), and Top-down Multi-step Hierarchical Label Prediction (TMH) -- in both zero-shot and few-shot settings, comparing the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies. Experiments on two datasets show that a few-shot setting consistently improves classification accuracy compared to a zero-shot setting. While a traditional machine learning model achieves high accuracy on a dataset with a shallow hierarchy, LLMs, especially DH strategy, tend to outperform the machine learning model on a dataset with a deeper hierarchy. API costs increase significantly due to the higher input tokens required for deeper label hierarchies on DH strategy. These results emphasize the trade-off between accuracy improvement and the computational cost of prompt strategy. These findings highlight the potential of black box LLMs for HTC while underscoring the need to carefully select a prompt strategy to balance performance and cost.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Learning Neural Strategy-Proof Matching Mechanism from Examples

Designing two-sided matching mechanisms is challenging when practical demands for matching outcomes are difficult to formalize and the designed mechanism must satisfy theoretical conditions. To address this, prior work has proposed a framework that learns a matching mechanism from examples, using a parameterized family that satisfies properties such as stability. However, despite its usefulness, this framework does not guarantee strategy-proofness (SP), and cannot handle varying numbers of agents or incorporate publicly available contextual information about agents, both of which are crucial in real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a new parametrized family of matching mechanisms that always satisfy strategy-proofness, are applicable for an arbitrary number of agents, and deal with public contextual information of agents, based on the serial dictatorship (SD). This family is represented by NeuralSD, a novel neural network architecture based on SD, where agent rankings in SD are treated as learnable parameters computed from agents' contexts using an attention-based sub-network. To enable learning, we introduce tensor serial dictatorship (TSD), a differentiable relaxation of SD using tensor operations. This allows NeuralSD to be trained end-to-end from example matchings while satisfying SP. We conducted experiments to learn a matching mechanism from matching examples while satisfying SP. We demonstrated that our method outperformed baselines in predicting matchings and on several metrics for goodness of matching outcomes.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

XicorAttention: Time Series Transformer Using Attention with Nonlinear Correlation

Various Transformer-based models have been proposed for time series forecasting. These models leverage the self-attention mechanism to capture long-term temporal or variate dependencies in sequences. Existing methods can be divided into two approaches: (1) reducing computational cost of attention by making the calculations sparse, and (2) reshaping the input data to aggregate temporal features. However, existing attention mechanisms may not adequately capture inherent nonlinear dependencies present in time series data, leaving room for improvement. In this study, we propose a novel attention mechanism based on Chatterjee's rank correlation coefficient, which measures nonlinear dependencies between variables. Specifically, we replace the matrix multiplication in standard attention mechanisms with this rank coefficient to measure the query-key relationship. Since computing Chatterjee's correlation coefficient involves sorting and ranking operations, we introduce a differentiable approximation employing SoftSort and SoftRank. Our proposed mechanism, ``XicorAttention,'' integrates it into several state-of-the-art Transformer models. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that incorporating nonlinear correlation into the attention improves forecasting accuracy by up to approximately 9.1\% compared to existing models.

cs.LG↗