arXiv subjects

Huyên Pham

Publications and source records attributed to Huyên Pham.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

A Class of Finite-Dimensional Numerically Solvable McKean-Vlasov Control Problems

We address a class of McKean-Vlasov (MKV) control problems with common noise, called polynomial conditional MKV, and extending the known class of linear quadratic stochastic MKV control problems. We show how this polynomial class can be reduced by suitable Markov embedding to finite-dimensional stochastic control problems, and provide a discussion and comparison of three probabilistic numerical methods for solving the reduced control problem: quantization, regression by control randomization, and regress later methods. Our numerical results are illustrated on various examples from portfolio selection and liquidation under drift uncertainty, and a model of interbank systemic risk with partial observation.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Linear-quadratic McKean-Vlasov stochastic control problems with random coefficients on finite and infinite horizon, and applications

We propose a simple and original approach for solving linear-quadratic mean-field stochastic control problems. We study both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon problems, and allow notably some coefficients to be stochastic. Our method is based on a suitable extension of the martingale formulation for verification theorems in control theory. The optimal control involves the solution to a system of Riccati ordinary differential equations and to a linear mean-field backward stochastic differential equation, existence and uniqueness conditions are provided for such a system. Finally, we illustrate our results through two applications with explicit solutions: the first one deals with a portfolio liquidation problem with trade crowding, and the second one considers an economic model of substitutable production goods.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Robust Markowitz mean-variance portfolio selection under ambiguous covariance matrix *

This paper studies a robust continuous-time Markowitz portfolio selection pro\-blem where the model uncertainty carries on the covariance matrix of multiple risky assets. This problem is formulated into a min-max mean-variance problem over a set of non-dominated probability measures that is solved by a McKean-Vlasov dynamic programming approach, which allows us to characterize the solution in terms of a Bellman-Isaacs equation in the Wasserstein space of probability measures. We provide explicit solutions for the optimal robust portfolio strategies and illustrate our results in the case of uncertain volatilities and ambiguous correlation between two risky assets. We then derive the robust efficient frontier in closed-form, and obtain a lower bound for the Sharpe ratio of any robust efficient portfolio strategy. Finally, we compare the performance of Sharpe ratios for a robust investor and for an investor with a misspecified model. MSC Classification: 91G10, 91G80, 60H30

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2017

BSDEs with diffusion constraint and viscous Hamilton-Jacobi equations with unbounded data

We provide a stochastic representation for a general class of viscous Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) equations, which has convexity and superlinear nonlinearity in its gradient term, via a type of backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) with constraint in the martingale part. We compare our result with the classical representation in terms of (super)quadratic BSDE, and show in particular that existence of a solution to the viscous HJ equation can be obtained under more general growth assumptions on the coefficients, including both unbounded diffusion coefficient and terminal data.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Bellman equation and viscosity solutions for mean-field stochastic control problem

We consider the stochastic optimal control problem of McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equation where the coefficients may depend upon the joint law of the state and control. By using feedback controls, we reformulate the problem into a deterministic control problem with only the marginal distribution of the process as controlled state variable, and prove that dynamic programming principle holds in its general form. Then, by relying on the notion of differentiability with respect to pro\-bability measures recently introduced by P.L. Lions in [32], and a special It{ô} formula for flows of probability measures, we derive the (dynamic programming) Bellman equation for mean-field stochastic control problem, and prove a veri\-fication theorem in our McKean-Vlasov framework. We give explicit solutions to the Bellman equation for the linear quadratic mean-field control problem, with applications to the mean-variance portfolio selection and a systemic risk model. We also consider a notion of lifted visc-sity solutions for the Bellman equation, and show the viscosity property and uniqueness of the value function to the McKean-Vlasov control problem. Finally, we consider the case of McKean-Vlasov control problem with open-loop controls and discuss the associated dynamic programming equation that we compare with the case of closed-loop controls.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Linear quadratic optimal control of conditional McKean-Vlasov equation with random coefficients and applications *

We consider the optimal control problem for a linear conditional McKean-Vlasov equation with quadratic cost functional. The coefficients of the system and the weigh-ting matrices in the cost functional are allowed to be adapted processes with respect to the common noise filtration. Semi closed-loop strategies are introduced, and following the dynamic programming approach in [32], we solve the problem and characterize time-consistent optimal control by means of a system of decoupled backward stochastic Riccati differential equations. We present several financial applications with explicit solutions, and revisit in particular optimal tracking problems with price impact, and the conditional mean-variance portfolio selection in incomplete market model.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Ergodicity of robust switching control and nonlinear system of quasi variational inequalities

We analyze the asymptotic behavior for a system of fully nonlinear parabolic and elliptic quasi variational inequalities. These equations are related to robust switching control problems introduced in [3]. We prove that, as time horizon goes to infinity (resp. discount factor goes to zero) the long run average solution to the parabolic system (resp. the limiting discounted solution to the elliptic system) is characterized by a solution of a nonlinear system of ergodic variational inequalities. Our results hold under a dissipativity condition and without any non degeneracy assumption on the diffusion term. Our approach uses mainly probabilistic arguments and in particular a dual randomized game representation for the solution to the system of variational inequalities.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Dynamic programming for optimal control of stochastic McKean-Vlasov dynamics

We study the optimal control of general stochastic McKean-Vlasov equation. Such problem is motivated originally from the asymptotic formulation of cooperative equilibrium for a large population of particles (players) in mean-field interaction under common noise. Our first main result is to state a dynamic programming principle for the value function in the Wasserstein space of probability measures, which is proved from a flow property of the conditional law of the controlled state process. Next, by relying on the notion of differentiability with respect to probability measures due to P.L. Lions [32], and It{ô}'s formula along a flow of conditional measures, we derive the dynamic programming Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, and prove the viscosity property together with a uniqueness result for the value function. Finally, we solve explicitly the linear-quadratic stochastic McKean-Vlasov control problem and give an application to an interbank systemic risk model with common noise.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Randomized dynamic programming principle and Feynman-Kac representation for optimal control of McKean-Vlasov dynamics

We analyze a stochastic optimal control problem, where the state process follows a McKean-Vlasov dynamics and the diffusion coefficient can be degenerate. We prove that its value function V admits a nonlinear Feynman-Kac representation in terms of a class of forward-backward stochastic differential equations, with an autonomous forward process. We exploit this probabilistic representation to rigorously prove the dynamic programming principle (DPP) for V. The Feynman-Kac representation we obtain has an important role beyond its intermediary role in obtaining our main result: in fact it would be useful in developing probabilistic numerical schemes for V. The DPP is important in obtaining a characterization of the value function as a solution of a non-linear partial differential equation (the so-called Hamilton-Jacobi-Belman equation), in this case on the Wasserstein space of measures. We should note that the usual way of solving these equations is through the Pontryagin maximum principle, which requires some convexity assumptions. There were attempts in using the dynamic programming approach before, but these works assumed a priori that the controls were of Markovian feedback type, which helps write the problem only in terms of the distribution of the state process (and the control problem becomes a deterministic problem). In this paper, we will consider open-loop controls and derive the dynamic programming principle in this most general case. In order to obtain the Feynman-Kac representation and the randomized dynamic programming principle, we implement the so-called randomization method, which consists in formulating a new McKean-Vlasov control problem, expressed in weak form taking the supremum over a family of equivalent probability measures. One of the main results of the paper is the proof that this latter control problem has the same value function V of the original control problem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Randomization method and backward SDEs for optimal control of partially observed path-dependent stochastic systems

We consider a unifying framework for stochastic control problem including the following features: partial observation, path-dependence (both with respect to the state and the control), and without any non-degeneracy condition on the stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the controlled state process, driven by a Wiener process. In this context, we develop a general methodology, refereed to as the randomization method, studied in [23] for classical Markovian control under full observation, and consisting basically in replacing the control by an exogenous process independent of the driving noise of the SDE. Our first main result is to prove the equivalence between the primal control problem and the randomized control problem where optimization is performed over change of equivalent probability measures affecting the characteristics of the exogenous process. The randomized problem turns out to be associated by duality and separation argument to a backward SDE, which leads to the so-called randomized dynamic programming principle and randomized equation in terms of the path-dependent filter, and then characterizes the value function of the primal problem. In particular, classical optimal control problems with partial observation affected by non-degenerate Gaussian noise fall within the scope of our framework, and are treated by means of an associated backward SDE.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Randomized filtering and Bellman equation in Wasserstein space for partial observation control problem

We study a stochastic optimal control problem for a partially observed diffusion. By using the control randomization method in [4], we prove a corresponding randomized dynamic programming principle (DPP) for the value function, which is obtained from a flow property of an associated filter process. This DPP is the key step towards our main result: a characterization of the value function of the partial observation control problem as the unique viscosity solution to the corresponding dynamic programming Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. The latter is formulated as a new, fully non linear partial differential equation on the Wasserstein space of probability measures. An important feature of our approach is that it does not require any non-degeneracy condition on the diffusion coefficient, and no condition is imposed to guarantee existence of a density for the filter process solution to the controlled Zakai equation, as usually done for the separated problem. Finally, we give an explicit solution to our HJB equation in the case of a partially observed non Gaussian linear quadratic model.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Discrete time McKean-Vlasov control problem: a dynamic programming approach

We consider the stochastic optimal control problem of nonlinear mean-field systems in discrete time. We reformulate the problem into a deterministic control problem with marginal distribution as controlled state variable, and prove that dynamic programming principle holds in its general form. We apply our method for solving explicitly the mean-variance portfolio selection and the multivariate linear-quadratic McKean-Vlasov control problem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Feynman-Kac representation for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman IPDE

We aim to provide a Feynman-Kac type representation for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, in terms of forward backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE) with a simulatable forward process. For this purpose, we introduce a class of BSDE where the jumps component of the solution is subject to a partial nonpositive constraint. Existence and approximation of a unique minimal solution is proved by a penalization method under mild assumptions. We then show how minimal solution to this BSDE class provides a new probabilistic representation for nonlinear integro-partial differential equations (IPDEs) of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) type, when considering a regime switching forward SDE in a Markovian framework, and importantly we do not make any ellipticity condition. Moreover, we state a dual formula of this BSDE minimal solution involving equivalent change of probability measures. This gives in particular an original representation for value functions of stochastic control problems including controlled diffusion coefficient.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Non-Markovian optimal stopping problems and constrained BSDEs with jump

We consider a non-Markovian optimal stopping problem on finite horizon. We prove that the value process can be represented by means of a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE), defined on an enlarged probability space, containing a stochastic integral having a one-jump point process as integrator and an (unknown) process with a sign constraint as integrand. This provides an alternative representation with respect to the classical one given by a reflected BSDE. The connection between the two BSDEs is also clarified. Finally, we prove that the value of the optimal stopping problem is the same as the value of an auxiliary optimization problem where the intensity of the point process is controlled.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

An optimal trading problem in intraday electricity markets

We consider the problem of optimal trading for a power producer in the context of intraday electricity markets. The aim is to minimize the imbalance cost induced by the random residual demand in electricity, i.e. the consumption from the clients minus the production from renewable energy. For a simple linear price impact model and a quadratic criterion, we explicitly obtain approximate optimal strategies in the intraday market and thermal power generation, and exhibit some remarkable properties of the trading rate. Furthermore, we study the case when there are jumps on the demand forecast and on the intraday price, typically due to error in the prediction of wind power generation. Finally, we solve the problem when taking into account delay constraints in thermal power production.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2015

High frequency trading and asymptotics for small risk aversion in a Markov renewal model

We study a an optimal high frequency trading problem within a market microstructure model designed to be a good compromise between accuracy and tractability. The stock price is driven by a Markov Renewal Process (MRP), while market orders arrive in the limit order book via a point process correlated with the stock price itself. In this framework, we can reproduce the adverse selection risk, appearing in two different forms: the usual one due to big market orders impacting the stock price and penalizing the agent, and the weak one due to small market orders and reducing the probability of a profitable execution. We solve the market making problem by stochastic control techniques in this semi-Markov model. In the no risk-aversion case, we provide explicit formula for the optimal controls and characterize the value function as a simple linear PDE. In the general case, we derive the optimal controls and the value function in terms of the previous result, and illustrate how the risk aversion influences the trader strategy and her expected gain. Finally, by using a perturbation method, approximate optimal controls for small risk aversions are explicitly computed in terms of two simple PDE's, reducing drastically the computational cost and enlightening the financial interpretation of the results.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2014

Explicit investment rules with time-to-build and uncertainty

We establish explicit socially optimal rules for an irreversible investment deci- sion with time-to-build and uncertainty. Assuming a price sensitive demand function with a random intercept, we provide comparative statics and economic interpreta- tions for three models of demand (arithmetic Brownian, geometric Brownian, and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross). Committed capacity, that is, the installed capacity plus the in- vestment in the pipeline, must never drop below the best predictor of future demand, minus two biases. The discounting bias takes into account the fact that investment is paid upfront for future use; the precautionary bias multiplies a type of risk aversion index by the local volatility. Relying on the analytical forms, we discuss in detail the economic effects.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2013

Discrete time approximation of fully nonlinear HJB equations via BSDEs with nonpositive jumps

We propose a new probabilistic numerical scheme for fully nonlinear equation of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) type associated to stochastic control problem, which is based on the Feynman-Kac representation in [12] by means of control randomization and backward stochastic differential equation with nonpositive jumps. We study a discrete time approximation for the minimal solution to this class of BSDE when the time step goes to zero, which provides both an approximation for the value function and for an optimal control in feedback form. We obtained a convergence rate without any ellipticity condition on the controlled diffusion coefficient. Explicit implementable scheme based on Monte-Carlo simulations and empirical regressions, associated error analysis, and numerical experiments are performed in the companion paper [13].

math.PR↗