arXiv subjects

Huyên Pham

Publications and source records attributed to Huyên Pham.

86 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

A numerical algorithm for fully nonlinear HJB equations: an approach by control randomization

We propose a probabilistic numerical algorithm to solve Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) with nonnegative jumps, a class of BSDEs introduced in [9] for representing fully nonlinear HJB equations. In particular, this allows us to numerically solve stochastic control problems with controlled volatility, possibly degenerate. Our backward scheme, based on least-squares regressions, takes advantage of high-dimensional properties of Monte-Carlo methods, and also provides a parametric estimate in feedback form for the optimal control. A partial analysis of the error of the scheme is provided, as well as numerical tests on the problem of superreplication of option with uncertain volatilities and/or correlations, including a detailed comparison with the numerical results from the alternative scheme proposed in [7].

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Dual and backward SDE representation for optimal control of non-Markovian SDEs

We study optimal stochastic control problem for non-Markovian stochastic differential equations (SDEs) where the drift, diffusion coefficients, and gain functionals are path-dependent, and importantly we do not make any ellipticity assumption on the SDE. We develop a controls randomization approach, and prove that the value function can be reformulated under a family of dominated measures on an enlarged filtered probability space. This value function is then characterized by a backward SDE with nonpositive jumps under a single probability measure, which can be viewed as a path-dependent version of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, and an extension to $G$ expectation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Semi Markov model for market microstructure

We introduce a new model for describing the fluctuations of a tick-by-tick single asset price. Our model is based on Markov renewal processes. We consider a point process associated to the timestamps of the price jumps, and marks associated to price increments. By modeling the marks with a suitable Markov chain, we can reproduce the strong mean-reversion of price returns known as microstructure noise. Moreover, by using Markov renewal processes, we can model the presence of spikes in intensity of market activity, i.e. the volatility clustering, and consider dependence between price increments and jump times. We also provide simple parametric and nonparametric statistical procedures for the estimation of our model. We obtain closed-form formula for the mean signature plot, and show the diffusive behavior of our model at large scale limit. We illustrate our results by numerical simulations, and that our model is consistent with empirical data on the Euribor future.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2013

Optimal investment under multiple defaults risk: A BSDE-decomposition approach

We study an optimal investment problem under contagion risk in a financial model subject to multiple jumps and defaults. The global market information is formulated as a progressive enlargement of a default-free Brownian filtration, and the dependence of default times is modeled by a conditional density hypothesis. In this Ito-jump process model, we give a decomposition of the corresponding stochastic control problem into stochastic control problems in the default-free filtration, which are determined in a backward induction. The dynamic programming method leads to a backward recursive system of quadratic backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) in Brownian filtration, and our main result proves, under fairly general conditions, the existence and uniqueness of a solution to this system, which characterizes explicitly the value function and optimal strategies to the optimal investment problem. We illustrate our solutions approach with some numerical tests emphasizing the impact of default intensities, loss or gain at defaults and correlation between assets. Beyond the financial problem, our decomposition approach provides a new perspective for solving quadratic BSDEs with a finite number of jumps.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problem and application to investments in electricity generation

In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize the problem, of the size of the local hypercubes involved in the regressions, and of the truncating time horizon. To make the method viable for problems in high dimension and long time horizon, we extend a memory reduction method to the general Euler scheme, so that, when performing the numerical resolution, the storage of the Monte Carlo simulation paths is not needed. Then, we apply this algorithm to a model of optimal investment in power plants. This model takes into account electricity demand, cointegrated fuel prices, carbon price and random outages of power plants. It computes the optimal level of investment in each generation technology, considered as a whole, w.r.t. the electricity spot price. This electricity price is itself built according to a new extended structural model. In particular, it is a function of several factors, among which the installed capacities. The evolution of the optimal generation mix is illustrated on a realistic numerical problem in dimension eight, i.e. with two different technologies and six random factors.

math.NA↗

arXiv2012

Optimal High Frequency Trading in a Pro-Rata Microstructure with Predictive Information

We propose a framework to study optimal trading policies in a one-tick pro-rata limit order book, as typically arises in short-term interest rate futures contracts. The high-frequency trader has the choice to trade via market orders or limit orders, which are represented respectively by impulse controls and regular controls. We model and discuss the consequences of the two main features of this particular microstructure: first, the limit orders sent by the high frequency trader are only partially executed, and therefore she has no control on the executed quantity. For this purpose, cumulative executed volumes are modelled by compound Poisson processes. Second, the high frequency trader faces the overtrading risk, which is the risk of brutal variations in her inventory. The consequences of this risk are investigated in the context of optimal liquidation. The optimal trading problem is studied by stochastic control and dynamic programming methods, which lead to a characterization of the value function in terms of an integro quasi-variational inequality. We then provide the associated numerical resolution procedure, and convergence of this computational scheme is proved. Next, we examine several situations where we can on one hand simplify the numerical procedure by reducing the number of state variables, and on the other hand focus on specific cases of practical interest. We examine both a market making problem and a best execution problem in the case where the mid-price process is a martingale. We also detail a high frequency trading strategy in the case where a (predictive) directional information on the mid-price is available. Each of the resulting strategies are illustrated by numerical tests.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2012

Investment/consumption problem in illiquid markets with regime-switching

We consider an illiquid financial market with different regimes modeled by a continuous-time finite-state Markov chain. The investor can trade a stock only at the discrete arrival times of a Cox process with intensity depending on the market regime. Moreover, the risky asset price is subject to liquidity shocks, which change its rate of return and volatility, and induce jumps on its dynamics. In this setting, we study the problem of an economic agent optimizing her expected utility from consumption under a non-bankruptcy constraint. By using the dynamic programming method, we provide the characterization of the value function of this stochastic control problem in terms of the unique viscosity solution to a system of integro-partial differential equations. We next focus on the popular case of CRRA utility functions, for which we can prove smoothness $C^2$ results for the value function. As an important byproduct, this allows us to get the existence of optimal investment/consumption strategies characterized in feedback forms. We analyze a convergent numerical scheme for the resolution to our stochastic control problem, and we illustrate finally with some numerical experiments the effects of liquidity regimes in the investor's optimal decision.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2012

Time discretization and quantization methods for optimal multiple switching problem

In this paper, we study probabilistic numerical methods based on optimal quantization algorithms for computing the solution to optimal multiple switching problems with regime-dependent state process. We first consider a discrete-time approximation of the optimal switching problem, and analyze its rate of convergence. Given a time step $h$, the error is in general of order $(h \log(1/h))^{1/2}$, and of order $h^{1/2}$ when the switching costs do not depend on the state process. We next propose quantization numerical schemes for the space discretization of the discrete-time Euler state process. A Markovian quantization approach relying on the optimal quantization of the normal distribution arising in the Euler scheme is analyzed. In the particular case of uncontrolled state process, we describe an alternative marginal quantization method, which extends the recursive algorithm for optimal stopping problems as in Bally-Pagès (2003). A priori $L^p$-error estimates are stated in terms of quantization errors. Finally, some numerical tests are performed for an optimal switching problem with two regimes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2011

Swing Options Valuation: a BSDE with Constrained Jumps Approach

We introduce a new probabilistic method for solving a class of impulse control problems based on their representations as Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs for short) with constrained jumps. As an example, our method is used for pricing Swing options. We deal with the jump constraint by a penalization procedure and apply a discrete-time backward scheme to the resulting penalized BSDE with jumps. We study the convergence of this numerical method, with respect to the main approximation parameters: the jump intensity $λ$, the penalization parameter $p > 0$ and the time step. In particular, we obtain a convergence rate of the error due to penalization of order $(λp)^{α- \frac{1}{2}}, \forall α\in \left(0, \frac{1}{2}\right)$. Combining this approach with Monte Carlo techniques, we then work out the valuation problem of (normalized) Swing options in the Black and Scholes framework. We present numerical tests and compare our results with a classical iteration method.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2010

Backward SDEs with constrained jumps and quasi-variational inequalities

We consider a class of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) driven by Brownian motion and Poisson random measure, and subject to constraints on the jump component. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the minimal solution for the BSDEs by using a penalization approach. Moreover, we show that under mild conditions the minimal solutions to these constrained BSDEs can be characterized as the unique viscosity solution of quasi-variational inequalities (QVIs), which leads to a probabilistic representation for solutions to QVIs. Such a representation in particular gives a new stochastic formula for value functions of a class of impulse control problems. As a direct consequence, this suggests a numerical scheme for the solution of such QVIs via the simulation of the penalized BSDEs.

math.PR↗

arXiv2010

Numerical methods for an optimal order execution problem

This paper deals with numerical solutions to an impulse control problem arising from optimal portfolio liquidation with bid-ask spread and market price impact penalizing speedy execution trades. The corresponding dynamic programming (DP) equation is a quasi-variational inequality (QVI) with solvency constraint satisfied by the value function in the sense of constrained viscosity solutions. By taking advantage of the lag variable tracking the time interval between trades, we can provide an explicit backward numerical scheme for the time discretization of the DPQVI. The convergence of this discrete-time scheme is shown by viscosity solutions arguments. An optimal quantization method is used for computing the (conditional) expectations arising in this scheme. Numerical results are presented by examining the behaviour of optimal liquidation strategies, and comparative performance analysis with respect to some benchmark execution strategies. We also illustrate our optimal liquidation algorithm on real data, and observe various interesting patterns of order execution strategies. Finally, we provide some numerical tests of sensitivity with respect to the bid/ask spread and market impact parameters.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2008

Optimal consumption policies in illiquid markets

We investigate optimal consumption policies in the liquidity risk model introduced in Pham and Tankov (2007). Our main result is to derive smoothness results for the value functions of the portfolio/consumption choice problem. As an important consequence, we can prove the existence of the optimal control (portfolio/consumption strategy) which we characterize both in feedback form in terms of the derivatives of the value functions and as the solution of a second-order ODE. Finally, numerical illustrations of the behavior of optimal consumption strategies between two trading dates are given.

math.PR↗

arXiv2008

A mixed singular/switching control problem for a dividend policy with reversible technology investment

We consider a mixed stochastic control problem that arises in Mathematical Finance literature with the study of interactions between dividend policy and investment. This problem combines features of both optimal switching and singular control. We prove that our mixed problem can be decoupled in two pure optimal stopping and singular control problems. Furthermore, we describe the form of the optimal strategy by means of viscosity solution techniques and smooth-fit properties on the corresponding system of variational inequalities. Our results are of a quasi-explicit nature. From a financial viewpoint, we characterize situations where a firm manager decides optimally to postpone dividend distribution in order to invest in a reversible growth opportunity corresponding to a modern technology. In this paper a reversible opportunity means that the firm may disinvest from the modern technology and return back to its old technology by receiving some gain compensation. The results of our analysis take qualitatively different forms depending on the parameters values.

math.PR↗

arXiv2006

Optimal consumption in discrete-time financial models with industrial investment opportunities and nonlinear returns

We consider a general discrete-time financial market with proportional transaction costs as in [Kabanov, Stricker and Rásonyi Finance and Stochastics 7 (2003) 403--411] and [Schachermayer Math. Finance 14 (2004) 19--48]. In addition to the usual investment in financial assets, we assume that the agents can invest part of their wealth in industrial projects that yield a nonlinear random return. We study the problem of maximizing the utility of consumption on a finite time period. The main difficulty comes from the nonlinearity of the nonfinancial assets' return. Our main result is to show that existence holds in the utility maximization problem. As an intermediary step, we prove the closedness of the set $A_T$ of attainable claims under a robust no-arbitrage property similar to the one introduced in [Schachermayer Math. Finance 14 (2004) 19--48] and further discussed in [Kabanov, Stricker and Rásonyi Finance and Stochastics 7 (2003) 403--411]. This allows us to provide a dual formulation for $A_T$.

math.PR↗