arXiv subjects

Ibrahim Ekren

Publications and source records attributed to Ibrahim Ekren.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Mean-field optimal stopping with endogenous quantile cutoffs

We study a mean-field optimal stopping problem with an endogenous population-level shutdown. All remaining agents stop when the survival mass falls below a prescribed threshold. We recast the discontinuous objective as the singular, nonconvex constraint that the survival mass lie in $\{0\}\cup[\alpha,1]$. We prove the equivalence of strong and weak values via an approximation and the existence of an optimal rule via compactness and penalization. We also prove a dynamic programming principle. The value is continuous away from the critical boundary but may be discontinuous at the boundary itself. Under strict initial feasibility, finite-population values converge to the mean-field value. In the same regime, the laws of near-optimal empirical measures are tight and every mean-field optimizer admits a recovery sequence. At the threshold, however, finite-population convergence may fail.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Kullback-Leibler Mirror-Prox for Measure-Valued Variational Inequalities and Mean-Field Equilibria

We study the computation of static mean-field equilibria on a compact state space by formulating the equilibrium condition as a variational inequality over probability measures. We propose an entropic variant of Korpelevich's extragradient algorithm---the Kullback--Leibler Mirror-Prox method---in which Euclidean projections are replaced by relative-entropy proximal steps. Each half-step is therefore an explicit exponential reweighting of the current measure, implemented on a finite state-space discretization. Under Lasry--Lions monotonicity and continuity assumptions, we prove convergence of mesh-refined ergodic averages and obtain finite-iteration Minty-residual and approximate-equilibrium bounds that jointly quantify iteration and discretization errors. Under strong monotonicity, we derive metric convergence rates for the last, best, and averaged iterates. We also develop a KL-type Tikhonov regularization that selects the equilibrium minimizing relative entropy with respect to a reference measure. The framework applies to potential and nonpotential cost operators and does not require differentiability or convexity of the cost in the individual state.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Quantitative Particle Approximation for Controlled Nonlinear Filtering

We estimate convergence rates of value functions for particle approximations of a controlled nonlinear filtering problem. The state is a McKean--Vlasov diffusion on the flat torus, driven by hidden idiosyncratic noise and observed common noise. The filter---the conditional law of the state given the observations---serves as the state variable of the control problem, and the associated value function solves a second-order Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation on the Wasserstein space. We approximate this problem by a centralized $N$-particle control problem with independent idiosyncratic noises and a common observation noise. The framework accommodates nonseparable rewards and controlled drifts. Since a single control is applied to the entire population, the Hamiltonian is defined by an optimization performed after integration over the population. Under smoothness of the data, uniform ellipticity, and regularity of this Hamiltonian, we establish uniform value-function error bounds of order $N^{-1/6}$ for $d=1$, $N^{-1/6}(\log N)^{1/3}$ for $d=2$, and $N^{-1/(3d)}$ for $d>2$. The proof combines a translation lift in the common-noise direction, Fourier--Wasserstein inf- and sup-convolutions, viscosity comparison, and particle derivative estimates uniform in $N$.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Multidimensional stochastic liquidity in Kyle's model of informed trading

We develop a variational formulation of Kyle's model of informed trading that accommodates stochastic liquidity and multiple traded assets. The main equilibrium result is stated first: under a martingale dual condition, a matrix-valued martingale depth process generates a linear-Gaussian equilibrium with stochastic matrix-valued price impact. We derive this martingale from a primal-dual problem, inspired by causal optimal transport, that characterizes the endogenous speed at which the insider injects private information into prices; in general, this problem admits only local martingale optimizers, and the martingale dual condition is the hypothesis that the optimizer is a true martingale. We interpret informed trading as the optimal liquidation of private information and verify the construction in the scalar and common-eigenbasis cases. The fully general matrix-valued case reduces to a coupled matrix FBSDE, which we isolate as the remaining obstruction. Along the way, we establish an independently interesting Doob-Meyer decomposition for general (not necessarily symmetric) matrix-valued submartingales.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2026

Quantitative homogenization of convex Hamilton-Jacobi equations in the Wasserstein space

We study a homogenization problem for first-order Hamilton-Jacobi equations in the Wasserstein space with a convex Hamiltonian. We show that the solution $U^\varepsilon$, which is the value function of a mean field control problem, converges uniformly as $\varepsilon \to 0$ to the solution of a limiting Hamilton-Jacobi equation whose Hamiltonian is obtained through a suitable cell problem. Furthermore, we establish quantitative rates of convergence. Under general assumptions with multiscale dependence, we prove that the rate of convergence is $O(\sqrt{\varepsilon})$. When the Hamiltonian depends only on the fast variable and the momentum, we establish the sharp convergence rate $O(\varepsilon)$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first quantitative convergence result extending the optimal rate for first-order Hamilton-Jacobi equations in finite dimensions to the Wasserstein space. Finally, we show that our analysis extends to dynamic optimal transport problems, where the terminal condition imposes a constraint on the final distribution.

math.AP↗

arXiv2026

A comparison principle for Wasserstein PDEs with state- and law-dependent common noise

We prove a comparison principle for a class of second-order Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equations on the Wasserstein space whose second-order term is generated by a general common-noise Hessian. The main difficulty is that the relevant second-order direction is induced by a state- and measure-dependent coefficient, so the associated perturbation of the measure is no longer a translation or a fixed state-dependent transformation. We introduce a nonlinear flow of measures and use it to transform the Wasserstein-space equation into an augmented equation on $[0,T]\times \mathcal P_2(\mathbb R)\times\mathbb R$, where the general Hessian becomes an ordinary second derivative in the auxiliary variable. The construction may be viewed as a measure-dependent Lamperti transform: it removes the common-noise direction at the level of the equation, but unlike the classical one-dimensional Lamperti transform it permits degeneracy of the coefficient and dependence on the conditional law. We establish the spatial, measure-derivative, and negative-Sobolev estimates for this flow that are needed in the viscosity argument. Under structural assumptions on the transformed Hamiltonian, these estimates yield a Crandall--Ishii type comparison theorem for semicontinuous viscosity sub- and supersolutions. This gives, to the best of our knowledge, the first viscosity comparison framework of this kind for the filtering-driven equations considered here, and opens a new class of second-order PDEs on spaces of measures with state- and law-dependent common-noise directions. As an application, we identify the value function of a controlled stochastic filtering problem with state- and law-dependent common noise as the unique viscosity solution of its dynamic programming equation. We also explain how the same change-of-variable viewpoint applies to Zakai-type Kolmogorov equations on spaces of finite positive measures.

math.AP↗

arXiv2026

Analytical Approach to Continuous-Time Causal Optimal Transport

We study causal optimal transport in continuous time, with Markovian cost, between a finite-state Markov source and a diffusion target. By replacing the source with its conditional law given the observation of the target, we characterize the value of this transport problem through a fully nonlinear parabolic master equation on an enlarged state space. We further show that this value coincides with those of two equivalent stochastic control problems on the simplex: a control of the Kushner--Stratonovich filtering equation with a zero-mean condition, and a state-constrained stochastic optimal control problem. Both formulations give rise to implementable numerical schemes that approximate the value from above and below.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Principal-agent problems with adverse selection: A stochastic target problem formulation

We study a principal-agent problem with adverse selection, where the principal does not know the agent's true cost but must design a contract to optimize a specific criterion. Unlike standard screening frameworks that allow for self-selection, we assume the principal can only offer a unique contract. We show that the agent's optimization problem can be reformulated as a stochastic target problem. After characterizing the credible domain of this target problem, we show that the principal's objective can be solved as a stochastic optimal control problem with partial information and state constraints. The description of the credible domain also allows us to obtain the value of screening contracts.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2026

Uniform-in-time propagation of chaos for consensus-based minimax algorithm

We study the large-population convergence of a consensus-based algorithm for the saddle point problem proposed by ArXiv: 2212.12334, establishing the uniform-in-time propagation of chaos using a coupling method. Our work shows that the $L^2$-deviation has order $O(N_1^{-1} + N_2^{-1})$ uniformly in time, where $N_1$ and $N_2$ denote the numbers of particles corresponding to the two competing players. It demonstrates the convergence of the particles to some location near a saddle point of the given objective function, which confirms the computational feasibility of the algorithm. The main idea behind the proofs is the exponential decay and the concentration of the variances of the particle system.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Comparison of viscosity solutions for a class of non-linear PDEs on the space of finite nonnegative measures

We establish a comparison principle for viscosity solutions of a class of nonlinear partial differential equations posed on the space of nonnegative finite measures, thereby extending recent results for PDEs defined on the Wasserstein space of probability measures. As an application, we study a controlled branching McKean-Vlasov diffusion and characterize the associated value function as the unique viscosity solution of the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. This yields a PDE-based approach to the optimal control of branching processes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2025

Contracting with discretionary bonuses

We study a continuous time contracting model in which a principal hires a risk averse agent to manage a project over a finite horizon and provides sequential payments whose timing is endogenously determined. The resulting nonzero-sum interaction between the principal and the agent is reformulated as a mixed control and stopping problem. Using numerical simulations, we investigate how factors such as the relative impatience of the parties and the number of bonus payments influence the principal's value and the structure of the optimal bonus payment scheme. A notable finding is that, in some contractual environments, the principal optimally offers a sign-on bonus to front-load incentives.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2025

Contracting a crowd of heterogeneous agents

We study optimal contract design for large populations of heterogeneous agents whose actions generate network spillovers represented by an interaction function. In a linear-quadratic framework, we solve the finite-agent problem and its continuum limit, obtaining explicit optimal contracts and equilibrium efforts. We show that the continuum contract can be evaluated on a large finite sample of agents to obtain admissible contracts that achieve the finite-agent principal's value up to an error of order 1/N. This provides a scalable approximation for settings with many interacting agents. We also prove stability with respect to perturbations of the interaction function and provide comparative statics and numerical examples showing how network position affects effort, incentives, and the principal's value. The results identify how optimal incentives should be targeted toward agents whose actions generate larger spillovers.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2025

Comparison for semi-continuous viscosity solutions for second order PDEs on the Wasserstein space

In this paper, we prove a comparison result for semi-continuous viscosity solutions of a class of second-order PDEs in the Wasserstein space. This allows us to remove the Lipschitz continuity assumption with respect to the Fourier-Wasserstein distance in AriX: 2309.05040 and obtain uniqueness by directly working in the Wasserstein space. In terms of its application, we characterize the value function of a stochastic control problem with partial observation as the unique viscosity solution to its corresponding HJB equation. Additionally, we present an application to a prediction problem under partial monitoring, where we establish an upper bound on the limit of regret using our comparison principle for degenerate dynamics.

math.AP↗

arXiv2025

Uniform-in-time weak propagation of chaos for consensus-based optimization

We study the uniform-in-time weak propagation of chaos for the consensus-based optimization (CBO) method on a bounded searching domain. We apply the methodology for studying long-time behaviors of interacting particle systems developed in the work of Delarue and Tse (ArXiv:2104.14973). Our work shows that the weak error has order $O(N^{-1})$ uniformly in time, where $N$ denotes the number of particles. The main strategy behind the proofs are the decomposition of the weak errors using the linearized Fokker-Planck equations and the exponential decay of their Sobolev norms. Consequently, our result leads to the joint convergence of the empirical distribution of the CBO particle system to the Dirac-delta distribution at the global minimizer in population size and running time in Wasserstein-type metrics.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Solvability of the Gaussian Kyle model with imperfect information and risk aversion

We investigate a Kyle model under Gaussian assumptions where a risk-averse informed trader has imperfect information on the fundamental price of an asset. We show that an equilibrium can be constructed by considering an optimal transport problem that is solved under a measure that renders the utility of the informed trader martingale and a filtering problem under the historical measure.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2025

Viscosity Solutions of Fully second-order HJB Equations in the Wasserstein Space

In this paper, we show that the value functions of mean field control problems with common noise are the unique viscosity solutions to fully second-order Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, in a Crandall-Lions-like framework. We allow the second-order derivative in measure to be state-dependent and thus infinite-dimensional, rather than derived from a finite-dimensional operator, hence the term ''fully''. Our argument leverages the construction of smooth approximations from particle systems developed by Cosso, Gozzi, Kharroubi, Pham, and Rosestolato [Trans. Amer. Math. Soc., 2023], and the compactness argument via penalization of measure moments in Soner and Yan [Appl. Math. Optim., 2024]. Our work addresses unbounded dynamics and state-dependent common noise volatility, and to our knowledge, this is the first result of its kind in the literature.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Consistency of MLE in partially observed diffusion models on a torus

In this paper, we consider a general partially observed diffusion model with periodic coefficients and with non-degenerate diffusion component. The coefficients of such a model depend on an unknown (static and deterministic) parameter which needs to be estimated based on the observed component of the diffusion process. We show that, given enough regularity of the diffusion coefficients, a maximum likelihood estimator of the unknown parameter converges to the true parameter value as the sample size grows to infinity.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Neural Operators Can Play Dynamic Stackelberg Games

Dynamic Stackelberg games are a broad class of two-player games in which the leader acts first, and the follower chooses a response strategy to the leader's strategy. Unfortunately, only stylized Stackelberg games are explicitly solvable since the follower's best-response operator (as a function of the control of the leader) is typically analytically intractable. This paper addresses this issue by showing that the \textit{follower's best-response operator} can be approximately implemented by an \textit{attention-based neural operator}, uniformly on compact subsets of adapted open-loop controls for the leader. We further show that the value of the Stackelberg game where the follower uses the approximate best-response operator approximates the value of the original Stackelberg game. Our main result is obtained using our universal approximation theorem for attention-based neural operators between spaces of square-integrable adapted stochastic processes, as well as stability results for a general class of Stackelberg games.

math.OC↗