arXiv subjects

Igor Prünster

Publications and source records attributed to Igor Prünster.

29 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

Conditional formulae for Gibbs-type exchangeable random partitions

Gibbs-type random probability measures and the exchangeable random partitions they induce represent an important framework both from a theoretical and applied point of view. In the present paper, motivated by species sampling problems, we investigate some properties concerning the conditional distribution of the number of blocks with a certain frequency generated by Gibbs-type random partitions. The general results are then specialized to three noteworthy examples yielding completely explicit expressions of their distributions, moments and asymptotic behaviors. Such expressions can be interpreted as Bayesian nonparametric estimators of the rare species variety and their performance is tested on some real genomic data.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling market share dynamics

We propose a flexible stochastic framework for modeling the market share dynamics over time in a multiple markets setting, where firms interact within and between markets. Firms undergo stochastic idiosyncratic shocks, which contract their shares, and compete to consolidate their position by acquiring new ones in both the market where they operate and in new markets. The model parameters can meaningfully account for phenomena such as barriers to entry and exit, fixed and sunk costs, costs of expanding to new sectors with different technologies and competitive advantage among firms. The construction is obtained in a Bayesian framework by means of a collection of nonparametric hierarchical mixtures, which induce the dependence between markets and provide a generalization of the Blackwell-MacQueen Pólya urn scheme, which in turn is used to generate a partially exchangeable dynamical particle system. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is provided for simulating trajectories of the system, by means of which we perform a simulation study for transitions to different economic regimes. Moreover, it is shown that the infinite-dimensional properties of the system, when appropriately transformed and rescaled, are those of a collection of interacting Fleming-Viot diffusions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2012

Asymptotics for a Bayesian nonparametric estimator of species variety

In Bayesian nonparametric inference, random discrete probability measures are commonly used as priors within hierarchical mixture models for density estimation and for inference on the clustering of the data. Recently, it has been shown that they can also be exploited in species sampling problems: indeed they are natural tools for modeling the random proportions of species within a population thus allowing for inference on various quantities of statistical interest. For applications that involve large samples, the exact evaluation of the corresponding estimators becomes impracticable and, therefore, asymptotic approximations are sought. In the present paper, we study the limiting behaviour of the number of new species to be observed from further sampling, conditional on observed data, assuming the observations are exchangeable and directed by a normalized generalized gamma process prior. Such an asymptotic study highlights a connection between the normalized generalized gamma process and the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process that was previously known only in the unconditional case.

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arXiv2012

Exchangeable Hoeffding decompositions over finite sets: a characterization and counterexamples

We study Hoeffding decomposable exchangeable sequences with values in a finite set D. We provide a new combinatorial characterization of Hoeffding decomposability and use this result to show that, if the cardinality of D is strictly greater than 2, then there exists a class of neither Pólya nor i.i.d. D-valued exchangeable sequences that are Hoeffding decomposable. The construction of such sequences is based on some ideas appearing in Hill, Lane and Sudderth [1987] and answers a question left open in El-Dakkak and Peccati [2008].

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

A Conversation with Eugenio Regazzini

Eugenio Regazzini was born on August 12, 1946 in Cremona (Italy), and took his degree in 1969 at the University "L. Bocconi" of Milano. He has held positions at the universities of Torino, Bologna and Milano, and at the University "L. Bocconi" as assistant professor and lecturer from 1974 to 1980, and then professor since 1980. He is currently professor in probability and mathematical statistics at the University of Pavia. In the periods 1989-2001 and 2006-2009 he was head of the Institute for Applications of Mathematics and Computer Science of the Italian National Research Council (C.N.R.) in Milano and head of the Department of Mathematics at the University of Pavia, respectively. For twelve years between 1989 and 2006, he served as a member of the Scientific Board of the Italian Mathematical Union (U.M.I.). In 2007, he was elected Fellow of the IMS and, in 2001, Fellow of the "Istituto Lombardo---Accademia di Scienze e Lettere." His research activity in probability and statistics has covered a wide spectrum of topics, including finitely additive probabilities, foundations of the Bayesian paradigm, exchangeability and partial exchangeability, distribution of functionals of random probability measures, stochastic integration, history of probability and statistics. Overall, he has been one of the most authoritative developers of de Finetti's legacy. In the last five years, he has extended his scientific interests to probabilistic methods in mathematical physics; in particular, he has studied the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of equations, which are of interest for the kinetic theory of gases. The present interview was taken in occasion of his 65th birthday.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2010

On the posterior distribution of classes of random means

The study of properties of mean functionals of random probability measures is an important area of research in the theory of Bayesian nonparametric statistics. Many results are now known for random Dirichlet means, but little is known, especially in terms of posterior distributions, for classes of priors beyond the Dirichlet process. In this paper, we consider normalized random measures with independent increments (NRMI's) and mixtures of NRMI. In both cases, we are able to provide exact expressions for the posterior distribution of their means. These general results are then specialized, leading to distributional results for means of two important particular cases of NRMI's and also of the two-parameter Poisson--Dirichlet process.

math.ST↗

arXiv2009

Asymptotics for posterior hazards

An important issue in survival analysis is the investigation and the modeling of hazard rates. Within a Bayesian nonparametric framework, a natural and popular approach is to model hazard rates as kernel mixtures with respect to a completely random measure. In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the asymptotic behavior of such models. We investigate consistency of the posterior distribution and derive fixed sample size central limit theorems for both linear and quadratic functionals of the posterior hazard rate. The general results are then specialized to various specific kernels and mixing measures yielding consistency under minimal conditions and neat central limit theorems for the distribution of functionals.

math.ST↗

arXiv2008

Bayesian nonparametric estimators derived from conditional Gibbs structures

We consider discrete nonparametric priors which induce Gibbs-type exchangeable random partitions and investigate their posterior behavior in detail. In particular, we deduce conditional distributions and the corresponding Bayesian nonparametric estimators, which can be readily exploited for predicting various features of additional samples. The results provide useful tools for genomic applications where prediction of future outcomes is required.

math.PR↗

arXiv2008

Distributions of linear functionals of two parameter Poisson--Dirichlet random measures

The present paper provides exact expressions for the probability distributions of linear functionals of the two-parameter Poisson--Dirichlet process $\operatorname {PD}(α,θ)$. We obtain distributional results yielding exact forms for density functions of these functionals. Moreover, several interesting integral identities are obtained by exploiting a correspondence between the mean of a Poisson--Dirichlet process and the mean of a suitable Dirichlet process. Finally, some distributional characterizations in terms of mixture representations are proved. The usefulness of the results contained in the paper is demonstrated by means of some illustrative examples. Indeed, our formulae are relevant to occupation time phenomena connected with Brownian motion and more general Bessel processes, as well as to models arising in Bayesian nonparametric statistics.

math.PR↗

arXiv2007

On rates of convergence for posterior distributions in infinite-dimensional models

This paper introduces a new approach to the study of rates of convergence for posterior distributions. It is a natural extension of a recent approach to the study of Bayesian consistency. In particular, we improve on current rates of convergence for models including the mixture of Dirichlet process model and the random Bernstein polynomial model.

math.ST↗

arXiv2006

Linear and quadratic functionals of random hazard rates: an asymptotic analysis

A popular Bayesian nonparametric approach to survival analysis consists in modeling hazard rates as kernel mixtures driven by a completely random measure. In this paper we derive asymptotic results for linear and quadratic functionals of such random hazard rates. In particular, we prove central limit theorems for the cumulative hazard function and for the path-second moment and path-variance of the hazard rate. Our techniques are based on recently established criteria for the weak convergence of single and double stochastic integrals with respect to Poisson random measures. We illustrate our results by considering specific models involving kernels and random measures commonly exploited in practice.

math.PR↗