arXiv subjects

Inna Polichtchouk

Publications and source records attributed to Inna Polichtchouk.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

WP-MIP: An Artificial Intelligence, Hybrid, and Physically Based Model Intercomparison Project for Weather Prediction

Rapid progress in the field of machine-learning for weather prediction has led to the emergence of algorithms whose forecasting skill can exceed that of traditional physically based models. This development represents an opportunity to improve the quality of forecasting services provided by operational centers, particularly given the speed at which machine-learning based models generate predictions. Despite the clear promise of these systems, questions remain about the ability of the current generation of machine-learning models to generate physically consistent predictions of the full suite of required forecast fields under all conditions. Answering these questions will require careful comparisons between the well-understood physically based models, current state-of-the-art machine-learning models, and the hybrid models that combine elements of these two archetypes. The Weather Prediction Model Intercomparison Project (WP-MIP) is a World Meteorological Organization-supported initiative whose initial goal is to create a centralized database of physically based, machine-learning, and hybrid model forecasts to enable a distributed assessment and evaluation effort. The first instance of WP-MIP focuses on global deterministic predictions using both center-specific and common initializations to facilitate sensitivity studies. Forecasts contributed by institutions across six continents will be used to develop AI-ready verification techniques that highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each class of prediction system, with the goal of establishing best-practice guidance to model developers and national weather centers. The broad engagement of the operational and forecast-evaluation communities in WP-MIP will ensure that the project results are highly relevant to the development and deployment of next-generation weather prediction systems.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Hybrid ensemble forecasting combining physics-based and machine-learning predictions through spectral nudging

We present the first application of spectral nudging in a probabilistic ensemble forecasting framework, combining the physics-based ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System ensemble (IFS-ENS) with forecasts from the probabilistic machine-learned AIFS-ENS ensemble. Large scales of virtual temperature and vorticity are relaxed toward the machine-learned forecasts, while mesoscale structures remain governed by the physics-based model. This hybrid ensemble shows substantial improvements in large-scale forecast skill, with gains in predictive skill extended by up to two days in the tropics and by approximately half a day in the extra-tropics relative to IFS-ENS. Despite nudging being applied only to upper-air fields, improvements are also found in several near-surface parameters. Tropical cyclone track forecasts improve significantly, consistent with improved representation of the large-scale steering flow, without degrading storm intensity or ensemble spread. These results demonstrate that spectral nudging can be successfully extended to ensemble prediction and provide an attractive pathway for combining machine-learned and physics-based weather prediction systems.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Machine learning emulation of gravity wave drag in numerical weather forecasting

We assess the value of machine learning as an accelerator for the parameterisation schemes of operational weather forecasting systems, specifically the parameterisation of non-orographic gravity wave drag. Emulators of this scheme can be trained to produce stable and accurate results up to seasonal forecasting timescales. Generally, more complex networks produce more accurate emulators. By training on an increased complexity version of the existing parameterisation scheme we build emulators that produce more accurate forecasts. {For medium range forecasting we find evidence our emulators are more accurate} than the version of the parametrisation scheme that is used for operational predictions. Using the current operational CPU hardware our emulators have a similar computational cost to the existing scheme, but are heavily limited by data movement. On GPU hardware our emulators perform ten times faster than the existing scheme on a CPU.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2016

Equatorial superrotation in Held & Suarez-like flows with weak equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient

Equatorial superrotation under zonally-symmetric thermal forcing is investigated in a setup close to that of the classic Held & Suarez (1994) setup. In contrast to the behaviour in the classic setup, a transition to equatorial superrotation occurs when the equator-to-pole surface equilibrium entropy gradient is weakened. Two factors contribute to this transition: 1) the reduction of breaking Rossby waves from the mid-latitude that decelerate the equatorial flow and 2) the presence of barotropic instability in the equatorial region, providing stirring to accelerate the equatorial flow. In the latter, Kelvin waves excited by instability near the equator generate and maintain the superrotation. However, the superrotation is unphysically enhanced if simulations are under-resolved and/or over-dissipated.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2013

Intercomparison of General Circulation Models for Hot Extrasolar Planets

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy. Such a broad, detailed intercomparison has not been performed thus far for extrasolar planets study. The models considered all solve the traditional primitive equations, but employ different numerical algorithms or grids (e.g., pseudospectral and finite volume, with the latter separately in longitude-latitude and `cubed-sphere' grids). The test cases are chosen to cleanly address specific aspects of the behaviors typically reported in hot extrasolar planet simulations: 1) steady-state, 2) nonlinearly evolving baroclinic wave, and 3) response to fast timescale thermal relaxation. When initialized with a steady jet, all models maintain the steadiness, as they should -- except MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid. A very good agreement is obtained for a baroclinic wave evolving from an initial instability in pseudospectral models (only). However, exact numerical convergence is still not achieved across the pseudospectral models: amplitudes and phases are observably different. When subject to a typical `hot-Jupiter'-like forcing, all five models show quantitatively different behavior -- although qualitatively similar, time-variable, quadrupole-dominated flows are produced. Hence, as have been advocated in several past studies, specific quantitative predictions (such as the location of large vortices and hot regions) by GCMs should be viewed with caution. Overall, in the tests considered here, pseudospectral models in pressure coordinate (PEBOB and PEQMOD) perform the best and MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid performs the worst.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2012

Baroclinic Instability on Hot Extrasolar Planets

We investigate baroclinic instability in flow conditions relevant to hot extrasolar planets. The instability is important for transporting and mixing heat, as well as for influencing large-scale variability on the planets. Both linear normal mode analysis and non-linear initial value calculations are carried out -- focusing on the freely-evolving, adiabatic situation. Using a high-resolution general circulation model (GCM) which solves the traditional primitive equations, we show that large-scale jets similar to those observed in current GCM simulations of hot extrasolar giant planets are likely to be baroclinically unstable on a timescale of few to few tens of planetary rotations, generating cyclones and anticyclones that drive weather systems. The growth rate and scale of the most unstable mode obtained in the linear analysis are in qualitative, good agreement with the full non-linear calculations. In general, unstable jets evolve differently depending on their signs (eastward or westward), due to the change in sign of the jet curvature. For jets located at or near the equator, instability is strong at the flanks -- but not at the core. Crucially, the instability is either poorly or not at all captured in simulations with low resolution and/or high artificial viscosity. Hence, the instability has not been observed or emphasized in past circulation studies of hot extrasolar planets.

astro-ph.EP↗