WP-MIP: An Artificial Intelligence, Hybrid, and Physically Based Model Intercomparison Project for Weather Prediction

Abstract

Rapid progress in the field of machine-learning for weather prediction has led to the emergence of algorithms whose forecasting skill can exceed that of traditional physically based models. This development represents an opportunity to improve the quality of forecasting services provided by operational centers, particularly given the speed at which machine-learning based models generate predictions. Despite the clear promise of these systems, questions remain about the ability of the current generation of machine-learning models to generate physically consistent predictions of the full suite of required forecast fields under all conditions. Answering these questions will require careful comparisons between the well-understood physically based models, current state-of-the-art machine-learning models, and the hybrid models that combine elements of these two archetypes. The Weather Prediction Model Intercomparison Project (WP-MIP) is a World Meteorological Organization-supported initiative whose initial goal is to create a centralized database of physically based, machine-learning, and hybrid model forecasts to enable a distributed assessment and evaluation effort. The first instance of WP-MIP focuses on global deterministic predictions using both center-specific and common initializations to facilitate sensitivity studies. Forecasts contributed by institutions across six continents will be used to develop AI-ready verification techniques that highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each class of prediction system, with the goal of establishing best-practice guidance to model developers and national weather centers. The broad engagement of the operational and forecast-evaluation communities in WP-MIP will ensure that the project results are highly relevant to the development and deployment of next-generation weather prediction systems.