arXiv subjects

Ira B. Schwartz

Publications and source records attributed to Ira B. Schwartz.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Hamiltonian analysis of subcritical stochastic epidemic dynamics

We extend a technique of approximation of the long-term behavior of a supercritical stochastic epidemic model, using the WKB approximation and a Hamiltonian phase space, to the subcritical case. The limiting behavior of the model and approximation are qualitatively different in the subcritical case, requiring a novel analysis of the limiting behavior of the Hamiltonian system away from its deterministic subsystem. This yields a novel, general technique of approximation of the quasistationary distribution of stochastic epidemic and birth-death models, and may lead to techniques for analysis of these models beyond the quasistationary distribution. For a classic SIS model, the approximation found for the quasistationary distribution is very similar to published approximations but not identical. For a birth-death process without depletion of susceptibles, the approximation is exact. Dynamics on the phase plane similar to those predicted by the Hamiltonian analysis are demonstrated in cross-sectional data from trachoma treatment trials in Ethiopia, in which declining prevalences are consistent with subcritical epidemic dynamics.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

Epidemic Extinction Paths in Complex Networks

We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable, or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte-Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Epidemic extinction and control in heterogeneous networks

We consider epidemic extinction in finite networks with broad variation in local connectivity. Generalizing the theory of large fluctuations to random networks with a given degree distribution, we are able to predict the most probable, or optimal, paths to extinction in various configurations, including truncated power-laws. We find that paths for heterogeneous networks follow a limiting form in which infection first decreases in low-degree nodes, which triggers a rapid extinction in high- degree nodes, and finishes with a residual low-degree extinction. The usefulness of the approach is further demonstrated through optimal control strategies that leverage finite-size fluctuations. Interestingly, we find that the optimal control is a mix of treating both high and low-degree nodes based on large-fluctuation theoretical predictions.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2016

Hybrid dynamics in delay-coupled swarms with "mothership" networks

Swarming behavior continues to be a subject of immense interest because of its centrality in many naturally occurring systems in physics and biology, as well as its importance in applications such as robotics. Here we examine the effects on swarm pattern formation from delayed communication and topological heterogeneity, and in particular, the inclusion of a relatively small number of highly connected nodes, or "motherships", in a swarm's communication network. We find generalized forms of basic patterns for networks with general degree distributions, and a variety of new behaviors including new parameter regions with multi-stability and hybrid motions in bimodal networks. The latter is an interesting example of how heterogeneous networks can have dynamics that is a mix of different states in homogeneous networks, where high and low-degree nodes have simultaneously distinct behavior.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2016

Collective motion patterns of swarms with delay coupling: theory and experiment

The formation of coherent patterns in swarms of interacting self-propelled autonomous agents is a subject of great interest in a wide range of application areas, ranging from engineering and physics to biology. In this paper, we model and experimentally realize a mixed-reality large-scale swarm of delay-coupled agents. The coupling term is modeled as a delayed communication relay of position. Our analyses, assuming agents communicating over an Erdos-Renyi network, demonstrate the existence of stable coherent patterns that can only be achieved with delay coupling and that are robust to decreasing network connectivity and heterogeneity in agent dynamics. We also show how the bifurcation structure for emergence of different patterns changes with heterogeneity in agent acceleration capabilities and limited connectivity in the network as a function of coupling strength and delay. Our results are verified through simulation as well as preliminary experimental results of delay-induced pattern formation in a mixed-reality swarm.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2015

Pattern-Acquisition in Finite, Heterogenous, Delay-Coupled Swarms

The self-organizing behavior of swarms of inter- acting particles or agents is a topic of intense research in fields extending from biology to physics and robotics. In this paper, we carry out a systematic study of how the stable spatio-temporal patterns of a swarm depend on the number of agents, in the presence of time-delayed interaction and agent heterogeneity. We show how a coherent pattern is modified as the number of agents varies, including the time required to converge to it starting from random initial conditions. We discuss the implications of our results for curve-tracking using autonomous robotic systems.

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2014

Rare Event Extinction on Stochastic Networks

We consider the problem of extinction processes on random networks with a given structure. For sufficiently large well-mixed populations, the process of extinction of one or more state variable components occurs in the tail of the quasi-stationary probability distribution, thereby making it a rare event. Here we show how to extend the theory of large deviations to random networks to predict extinction times. In particular, we use the theory to find the most probable path leading to extinction. We apply the methodology to epidemic models and discover how mean extinction times scale with epidemiological and network parameters in Erdos-Renyi networks. The results are shown to compare quite well with Monte Carlo simulations of the network in predicting both the most probable paths to extinction and mean extinction times.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2014

Inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic sub-populations using synchronization dynamics

A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations. Primary infective populations in the driven system synchronize to the correct values from the driver system. Most hospital cases of dengue are secondary infections, so this method provides a way to deduce unobserved primary infection levels. We derive center manifold equations that relate the driven system to the driver system and thus motivate the use of synchronization to predict unobserved primary infectives. Synchronization stability between primary and secondary infections is demonstrated through numerical measurements of conditional Lyapunov exponents and through time series simulations.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2014

Noise Induced Switching and Extinction in Systems with Delay

We consider the rates of noise-induced switching between the stable states of dissipative dynamical systems with delay and also the rates of noise-induced extinction, where such systems model population dynamics. We study a class of systems where the evolution depends on the dynamical variables at a preceding time with a fixed time delay, which we call hard delay. For weak noise, the rates of inter-attractor switching and extinction are exponentially small. Finding these rates to logarithmic accuracy is reduced to variational problems. The solutions of the variational problems give the most probable paths followed in switching or extinction. We show that the equations for the most probable paths are acausal and formulate the appropriate boundary conditions. Explicit general results are obtained for small delay compared to the relaxation rate. We also develop a direct variational method to find the rates. We find that the analytical results agree well with the numerical simulations for both switching and extinction rates.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2014

Collective motions of heterogeneous swarms

The emerging collective motions of swarms of interacting agents are a subject of great interest in application areas ranging from biology to physics and robotics. In this paper, we conduct a careful analysis of the collective dynamics of a swarm of self-propelled heterogeneous, delay-coupled agents. We show the emergence of collective motion patterns and segregation of populations of agents with different dynamic properties; both of these behaviors (pattern formation and segregation) emerge naturally in our model, which is based on self-propulsion and attractive pairwise interactions between agents. We derive the bifurcation structure for emergence of different swarming behaviors in the mean field as a function of physical parameters and verify these results through simulation.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2014

Going with the flow: enhancing stochastic switching rates in multi-gyre systems

A control strategy is employed that modifies the stochastic escape times from one basin of attraction to another in a model of a double-gyre flow. The system studied captures the behavior of a large class of fluid flows that circulate and have multiple almost invariant sets. In the presence of noise, a particle in one gyre may randomly switch to an adjacent gyre due to a rare large fluctuation. We show that large fluctuation theory may be applied for controlling autonomous agents in a stochastic environment, in fact leveraging the stochastic- ity to the advantage of switching between regions of interest and concluding that patterns may be broken or held over time as the result of noise. We demonstrate that a controller can effectively manipulate the probability of a large fluctuation, thereby modifying escape times exponentially; this demonstrates the potential of optimal control strategies that work in combination with the endemic stochastic environment. To demonstrate this, stochastic simulations and numerical continuation are employed to tie together experimental findings with predictions.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2014

Capturing pattern bi-stability dynamics in delay-coupled swarms

Swarms of large numbers of agents appear in many biological and engineering fields. Dynamic bi-stability of co-existing spatio-temporal patterns has been observed in many models of large population swarms. However, many reduced models for analysis, such as mean-field (MF), do not capture the bifurcation structure of bi-stable behavior. Here, we develop a new model for the dynamics of a large population swarm with delayed coupling. The additional physics predicts how individual particle dynamics affects the motion of the entire swarm. Specifically, (1) we correct the center of mass propulsion physics accounting for the particles velocity distribution; (2) we show that the model we develop is able to capture the pattern bi-stability displayed by the full swarm model.

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2013

Stochastic switching in slow-fast systems: a large fluctuation approach

In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we model rare event occurrences due to large fluctuations probabilistically and employ a WKB ansatz to approximate their rate of occurrence. This results in the generation of a two-point boundary value problem that models the interaction of the state variables and the most likely noise force required to induce a rare event. The resulting equations of motion of describing the phenomenon are shown to be singularly perturbed. Vastly different time scales among the variables are leveraged to reduce the dimension and predict the dynamics on the slow manifold in a deterministic setting. The resulting constrained equations of motion may be used to directly compute an exponent that determines the probability of rare events. To verify the theory, a stochastic damped Duffing oscillator with three equilibrium points (two sinks separated by a saddle) is analyzed. The predicted switching time between states is computed using the optimal path that resides in an expanded phase space. We show that the exponential scaling of the switching rate as a function of system parameters agrees well with numerical simulations. Moreover, the dynamics of the original system and the reduced system via center manifolds are shown to agree in an exponentially scaling sense.

math.DS↗

arXiv2013

Distributed allocation of mobile sensing swarms in gyre flows

We address the synthesis of distributed control policies to enable a swarm of homogeneous mobile sensors to maintain a desired spatial distribution in a geophysical flow environment, or workspace. In this article, we assume the mobile sensors (or robots) have a "map" of the environment denoting the locations of the Lagrangian coherent structures or LCS boundaries. Based on this information, we design agent-level hybrid control policies that leverage the surrounding fluid dynamics and inherent environmental noise to enable the team to maintain a desired distribution in the workspace. We establish the stability properties of the ensemble dynamics of the distributed control policies. Since realistic quasi-geostrophic ocean models predict double-gyre flow solutions, we use a wind-driven multi-gyre flow model to verify the feasibility of the proposed distributed control strategy and compare the proposed control strategy with a baseline deterministic allocation strategy. Lastly, we validate the control strategy using actual flow data obtained by our coherent structure experimental testbed.

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2013

Predicting unobserved exposures from seasonal epidemic data

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the lower dimensional manifold on which the deterministic and stochastic dynamics correctly interact. Our method produces a low dimensional stochastic model that captures the same timing of disease outbreak and the same amplitude and phase of recurrent behavior seen in the high dimensional model. Given seasonal epidemic data consisting of the number of infectious individuals, our method enables a data-based model prediction of the number of unobserved exposed individuals over very long times.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2013

Intervention-Based Stochastic Disease Eradication

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Although diseases may go extinct due to random loss of effective contacts where the infection is transmitted to new susceptible individuals, the time to extinction in the absence of control may be prohibitively long. Thus intervention controls, such as vaccination of susceptible individuals and/or treatment of infectives, are typically based on a deterministic schedule, such as periodically vaccinating susceptible children based on school calendars. In reality, however, such policies are administered as a random process, while still possessing a mean period. Here, we consider the effect of randomly distributed intervention as disease control on large finite populations. We show explicitly how intervention control, based on mean period and treatment fraction, modulates the average extinction times as a function of population size and rate of infection spread. In particular, our results show an exponential improvement in extinction times even though the controls are implemented using a random Poisson distribution. Finally, we discover those parameter regimes where random treatment yields an exponential improvement in extinction times over the application of strictly periodic intervention. The implication of our results is discussed in light of the availability of limited resources for control.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2012

An iterative action minimizing method for computing optimal paths in stochastic dynamical systems

We present a numerical method for computing optimal transition pathways and transition rates in systems of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In particular, we compute the most probable transition path of stochastic equations by minimizing the effective action in a corresponding deterministic Hamiltonian system. The numerical method presented here involves using an iterative scheme for solving a two-point boundary value problem for the Hamiltonian system. We validate our method by applying it to both continuous stochastic systems, such as nonlinear oscillators governed by the Duffing equation, and finite discrete systems, such as epidemic problems, which are governed by a set of master equations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this method is capable of dealing with stochastic systems of delay differential equations.

math.DS↗

arXiv2012

Noise Induced Pattern Switching in Randomly Distributed Delayed Swarm Patterns

We study the effects of noise on the dynamics of a system of coupled self-propelling particles in the case where the coupling is time-delayed, and the delays are discrete and randomly generated. Previous work has demonstrated that the stability of a class of emerging patterns depends upon all moments of the time delay distribution, and predicts their bifurcation parameter ranges. Near the bifurcations of these patterns, noise may induce a transition from one type of pattern to another. We study the onset of these noise-induced swarm re-organizations by numerically simulating the system over a range of noise intensities and for various distributions of the delays. Interestingly, there is a critical noise threshold above which the system is forced to transition from a less organized state to a more organized one. We explore this phenomenon by quantifying this critical noise threshold, and note that transition time between states varies as a function of both the noise intensity and delay distribution.

nlin.PS↗