arXiv subjects

Isobel M. Romero-Shaw

Publications and source records attributed to Isobel M. Romero-Shaw.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A universal framework to identify eccentric binary mergers: GW200105 case study

Orbital eccentricity in gravitational-wave signals from merging compact object binaries is a powerful indicator of their formation channel. Several binary black hole mergers and a neutron star--black hole merger have been reported to exhibit signs of eccentricity, but which events are identified and the significance of the eccentricity differs between studies. Measurements of eccentricity can change depending on the choice of prior. The choice of prior is subtle: eccentricity is commonly measured at an arbitrary reference frequency, which varies from study to study. We use the candidate eccentric neutron star--black hole merger GW200105_162426 as a case study, employing a range of priors and reference frequencies, and find the results to be strongly prior-driven. We show that the varied results reported across different studies can be partially reconciled by accounting for the evolution of eccentricity with reference frequency. In order to make conclusive statements about eccentricity, we propose a detection statistic that does not depend on reference frequency, and which marginalises over astrophysically-motivated distributions in eccentricity. Using this detection statistic, we find reduced support for the eccentric hypothesis for GW200105_162426: we obtain a natural log Bayes factor ln B $\leq$ 0.9 comparing the eccentric, aligned-spin hypothesis to the quasi-circular, precessing hypothesis. Our results cast doubt on the eccentric interpretation of GW200105_162426 and underscore the importance of modelling the astrophysical distributions of eccentricity in nature.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Biased parameter inference of eccentric, spin-precessing binary black holes

While the majority of gravitational wave (GW) events observed by the LIGO and Virgo detectors are consistent with mergers of binary black holes (BBHs) on quasi-circular orbits, some events are also consistent with non-zero orbital eccentricity, indicating that the binaries could have formed via dynamical interactions. Moreover, there may be GW events which show support for spin-precession, eccentricity, or both. In this work, we study the interplay of spins and eccentricity on the parameter estimation of GW signals from BBH mergers. We inject eccentric signals with no spins, aligned spins, and precessing spins using hybrids, TEOBResumS-DALI, and new Numerical Relativity (NR) simulations, respectively, and study the biases in the posteriors of source parameters when these signals are recovered with a quasi-circular precessing-spin waveform model, as opposed to an aligned-spin eccentric waveform model. We find significant biases in the source parameters, such as chirp mass and spin-precession ($χ_p$), when signals from highly-eccentric BBHs are recovered with a quasi-circular waveform model. Moreover, we find that for signals with both eccentricity and spin-precession effects, Bayes factor calculations confirm that an eccentric, aligned-spin model is preferred over a quasi-circular precessing-spin model. Our study highlights the complex nature of GW signals from eccentric, precessing-spin binaries and the need for readily usable inspiral-merger-ringdown eccentric, spin-precessing waveform models for unbiased parameter estimation.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

Evidence for eccentricity in the population of binary black holes observed by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA

Binary black holes (BBHs) in eccentric orbits produce distinct modulations in gravitational waves (GWs); measuring orbital eccentricity provides evidence for dynamical binary formation channels. We analyze 57 GW events from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) O1-O3 observing runs using a multipolar aligned-spin inspiral-merger-ringdown waveform with two eccentric parameters: eccentricity and relativistic anomaly (assuming a quasi-circular merger-ringdown), made computationally feasible by the machine-learning code \texttt{DINGO}, which accelerates inference by 2-3 orders of magnitude. First, with a uniform eccentricity prior, eccentric vs. quasi-circular aligned-spin $\log_{10}$ Bayes factors are 1.84-4.75 (depending on glitch mitigation) for GW200129, 3.0 for GW190701 and 1.77 for GW200208_22. We infer $e_{\text{gw, 10Hz}}$ $(e_{\text{gw, 20Hz}})$ to be $0.27_{-0.12}^{+0.10}$ ($0.16_{-0.05}^{+0.04}$) to $0.17_{-0.13}^{+0.14}$ ($0.1_{-0.04}^{+0.05}$) for GW200129, $0.54_{-0.30}^{+0.12}$ ($0.31_{-0.13}^{+0.12}$) for GW190701 and $0.39_{-0.23}^{+0.23}$ ($0.21_{-0.08}^{+0.08}$) for GW200208_22. Second, eccentric aligned-spin vs. quasi-circular precessing-spin $\log_{10}$ Bayes factors are 1.43-4.92 for GW200129, 2.61 for GW190701 and 1.23 for GW200208_22. Third, GW190521 shows no evidence for eccentricity ($\log_{10}$ Bayes factor 0.04). Fourth, neglecting spin-precession with an astrophysically-motivated prior on the eccentric BBH rate, the probability of one of the 57 events being eccentric exceeds 99.5\% or $(100-8.4\times10^{-4})$\% (depending on glitch mitigation). Fifth, we study parameter estimation impacts of neglecting eccentricity in quasi-circular models or higher modes in eccentric models. These results underscore the inclusion of eccentric parameters in BBH characterization for upcoming LVK runs and future ground- and space-based detectors probing more diverse BBH populations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

The Universal Eccentricity Distribution for Dynamical Gravitational-Wave Merger Channels

We argue that all dynamical astrophysical black hole merger channels are expected to result in a common eccentricity distribution at gravitational wave (GW) frequencies relevant for LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK) in the high eccentricity limit. This follows from the large separation of scales between the GW regime required for creating eccentric mergers in LVK, and the underlying astrophysical formation environment. Our analytical solution shows exceptional agreement with numerical studies. This finding has important implications for both theoretical studies and ongoing searches for eccentric GW sources.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Gravitational-Wave Signatures of Highly Eccentric Stellar-Mass Binary Black Holes in Galactic Nuclei

A significant fraction of compact-object mergers in galactic nuclei are expected to be eccentric in the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) frequency sensitivity range, $10^{-4} - 10^{-1}\ \rm Hz$. Several compact binaries detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration may retain hints of residual eccentricity at $\sim 10$ Hz, suggesting dynamical or triple origins for a significant fraction of the gravitational-wave-observable population. In triple systems, von-Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai oscillations perturb both the eccentricity and the argument of pericentre, $ω$, of the inner black hole binary. The latter could be fully \textit{circulating}, where $ω$ cycles through $2π$, or may \textit{librate}, with $ω$ ranges about a fixed value with small or large variation. We use \texttt{TSUNAMI}, a regularised N-body code with up to 3.5 post-Newtonian (PN) term corrections, to identify four different families of orbits: (i) circulating, (ii) small and (iii) large amplitude librating, and (iv) merging orbits. We develop and demonstrate a new method to construct gravitational waveforms using the quadrupole formula utilising the instantaneous {\it total} acceleration of each binary component in \texttt{TSUNAMI}. We show that the four orbital families have distinct waveform phenomenologies, enabling them to be distinguished if observed in LISA. The orbits are also distinguishable from an isolated binary or from a binary perturbed by a different tertiary orbit, even if the secular timescale is the same. Future burst timing models will be able to distinguish the different orbital configurations. For efficient binary formation, about $\sim 1000$ binaries can have highly eccentric, librating orbits in the Galactic Centre.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Fast and accurate parameter estimation of high-redshift sources with the Einstein Telescope

The Einstein Telescope (ET), along with other third-generation gravitational wave (GW) detectors, will be a key instrument for detecting GWs in the coming decades. However, analyzing the data and estimating source parameters will be challenging, especially given the large number of expected detections-on the order of $10^5$ per year-which makes current methods based on stochastic sampling impractical. In this work, we use Dingo-IS to perform neural posterior estimation (NPE) of high-redshift events detectable with ET in its triangular configuration. NPE is a likelihood-free inference technique that leverages normalizing flows to approximate posterior distributions. After training, inference is fast, requiring only a few minutes per source, and accurate, as corrected through importance sampling and validated against standard Bayesian inference methods. To confirm previous findings on the ability to estimate parameters for high-redshift sources with ET, we compare NPE results with predictions from the Fisher information matrix (FIM) approximation. We find that NPE correctly recovers the eight degenerate sky modes induced by the triangular detector geometry, missed by the FIM analysis, resulting in an underestimation of sky localization uncertainties for most sources. FIM also overestimates the uncertainty in luminosity distance by a factor of $\sim 3$ on average when the injected luminosity distance is $d^{\mathrm{inj}}_{\mathrm{L}} > 10^5~$Mpc, further confirming that ET will be particularly well suited for studying the early Universe.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

A subpopulation of low-mass, spinning black holes: signatures of dynamical assembly

Gravitational-wave observations of massive, rapidly spinning binary black holes mergers provide increasing evidence for the dynamical origin of some mergers. Previous studies have interpreted the mergers with primary mass $\gtrsim45\,M_\odot$ as being dominated by hierarchical, second-generation mergers, with rapidly spinning primaries being the products of previous black hole mergers assembled in dense stellar clusters. In this work, we reveal confident evidence of another subpopulation with rapid and isotropic spins at low mass containing the two exceptional events GW241011 and GW241110, consistent with a hierarchical merger hypothesis. Our result suggests the mass distribution of the second-generation black holes is peaked at low primary masses of $\sim16\,M_\odot$ rather than $\gtrsim45\,M_\odot$ in the pair-instability gap. Such low-mass second-generation black holes must be formed from the merger of even lighter first-generation black holes, implying that dense, metal-rich stellar environments contribute to the binary black hole population. By separating the contamination of higher-generation black holes, our result reveals the primary mass distribution of first-generation black holes formed from stellar collapse, which shows a significant dip between $\sim12\,M_\odot$ to $\sim20\,M_\odot$. This may indicate a dearth of black holes due to variation in the core compactness of the progenitor.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Hierarchical Triples vs. Globular Clusters: Binary black hole merger eccentricity distributions compete and evolve with redshift

The formation mechanisms of merging binary black holes (BBHs) observed by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration remain uncertain. Detectable eccentricity provides a powerful diagnostic for distinguishing between different formation channels, but resolving their eccentricity distributions requires the detection of a large number of eccentric mergers. Future gravitational wave detectors such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer will detect tens of thousands of BBH mergers out to redshifts $z \ge 10$, making it critical to understand the redshift-dependent evolution of eccentricity distributions. We simulate this evolution for two key channels: dynamical assembly in globular clusters (GCs), which leads to rapid, eccentric mergers; and hierarchical triples in the field, where three-body dynamics can induce eccentricity in the inner binary. When considering all BBH mergers, the GC channel dominates overall, consistent with previous studies. However, when focusing on mergers with detectable eccentricity in next-generation detectors, we find that hierarchical triples dominate the eccentric merger rate at $0\le z \le 4$, with GC mergers becoming competitive at higher redshifts. Across all model variations, eccentric mergers in the local Universe ($z\lesssim 1$) have significant contributions from field triples, challenging the common view that such systems primarily form in dense environments. We show that, regardless of cluster and stellar evolution uncertainties, hierarchical triples contribute at least 30 per cent of eccentric mergers across a large range of redshifts.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Gravitational-Wave Signatures of Highly Eccentric Stellar Binary Black-Holes in Galactic Nuclei

A significant fraction of gravitational-wave mergers are expected to be eccentric in the Laser-Interferometer-Space-Antenna (LISA) frequency band, $10^{-4} - 10^{-1}$ Hz. Several LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA events show potential hints of residual eccentricity at 10 Hz, pointing to dynamical or triple origins for part of the population, where von-Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai oscillations can perturb both the eccentricity and the inclination of the binary. Moreover, the argument of pericentre, $ω$ could be fully circulating, or librating, with a limited range for $ω$. We use TSUNAMI, a regularised N-body code with 3.5PN corrections to identify four different orbital families: (i) circulating, (ii) small-amplitude and (iii) large-amplitude librating, and (iv) merging. We develop a new method to construct gravitational-wave waveforms using the quadrupole formula from the instantaneous acceleration in TSUNAMI. The four orbital families have distinct waveform phenomenologies, enabling them to be distinguished if observed in LISA. In particular, the properties of the tertiary companion can be inferred and serve as an independent mass measurement and distinguish field triple dynamics from galactic dynamics.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Inferring Interference: Identifying a Perturbing Tertiary with Eccentric Gravitational Wave Burst Timing

[Abridged] Binary black holes may form and merge dynamically. These binaries are likely to become bound with high eccentricities, resulting in a burst of gravitational radiation at their point of closest approach. When such a binary is perturbed by a third body, the evolution of the orbit is affected, and gravitational-wave burst times are altered. The bursts times therefore encode information about the tertiary. In order to extract this information, we require a prescription for the relationship between the tertiary properties and the gravitational-wave burst times. In this paper, we demonstrate a toy model for the burst times of a secular three-body system. We show how Bayesian inference can be employed to deduce the tertiary properties when the bursts are detected by next-generation ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We study the bursts from an eccentric binary with a total mass of $60$~M$_\odot$ orbiting an $6 \times 10^{8}$~M$_\odot$ supermassive black hole. When we assume no knowledge of the eccentric binary, we are unable to tightly constrain the existence or properties of the tertiary, and we recover biased posterior probability distributions for the parameters of the eccentric binary. However, when the properties of the binary are already well-known -- as is likely if the late inspiral and merger are also detected -- we are able to more accurately infer the mass of the perturber, $m_3$, and its distance from the binary, $R$. When we assume measurement precision on the binary parameters consistent with expectations for next-generation gravitational-wave detectors, we can be greater than $90\%$ confident that the binary is perturbed. [...]

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

A Star Cluster Population of High Mass Black Hole Mergers in Gravitational Wave Data

Stellar evolution theories predict a gap in the black hole birth mass spectrum as the result of pair instability processes in the cores of massive stars.This gap, however, is not seen in the binary black hole masses inferred from gravitational wave data. One explanation is that black holes form dynamically in dense star clusters where smaller black holes merge to form more massive black holes, populating the mass gap. We show that this model predicts a distribution of the effective and precessing spin parameters, $χ_{\rm eff}$ and $χ_{\rm p}$, within the mass gap that is insensitive to assumptions about black hole natal spins and other astrophysical parameters. We analyze the distribution of $χ_{\rm eff}$ as a function of primary mass for the black hole binaries in the third gravitational wave transient catalog. We infer the presence of a high-mass and isotropically spinning population of black holes that is consistent with hierarchical formation in dense star clusters and a pair-instability mass gap with a lower edge at $44^{+6}_{-4} M_\odot$. We compute a Bayes factor $\mathcal{B}>10^4$ relative to models that do not allow for a high-mass population with a distinct $χ_{\rm eff}$ distribution.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Eccentric Signatures of Stellar-Mass Binary Black Holes with Circumbinary Disks in LISA

Stellar-mass binary black holes may have circumbinary disks if formed through common-envelope evolution or within gaseous environments. Disks can drive binaries into wider and more eccentric orbits, while gravitational waves harden and circularise them. We combine cutting-edge evolution prescriptions for disk-driven binaries with well-known equations for gravitational-wave-driven evolution, and study the evolution of stellar-mass binary black holes. We find that binaries are driven by their disk to an equilibrium eccentricity, $0.2\lesssim e_\mathrm{eq} \lesssim0.5$, that dominates their evolution. Once they transition to the GW-dominated regime their eccentricity decreases rapidly; we find that stellar-mass binary black holes with long-lived disks will likely be observed in LISA with detectable eccentricities $\sim 10^{-2}$ at $0.01$ Hz, with the precise value closely correlating with the binary's initial mass ratio. This may lead stellar-mass binary black holes with CBDs observed in LISA to be confused with dynamically-formed binary black holes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Detecting gravitational-wave bursts from black hole binaries in the Galactic Center with LISA

Stellar-mass black hole binaries (BHBs) in galactic nuclei are gravitationally perturbed by the central supermassive black hole (SMBH) of the host galaxy, potentially inducing strong eccentricity oscillations through the eccentric Kozai-Lidov (EKL) mechanism. These highly eccentric binaries emit a train of gravitational-wave (GW) bursts detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) -- a planned space-based GW detector -- with signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) up to ${\sim}100$ per burst. In this work, we study the GW signature of BHBs orbiting our galaxy's SMBH, Sgr A$^*$, which are consequently driven to very high eccentricities. We demonstrate that an unmodeled approach using a wavelet decomposition of the data effectively yields the time-frequency properties of each burst, provided that the GW frequency peaks between $10^{-3}\,\,\mathrm{Hz}$--$10^{-1}\,\,\mathrm{Hz}$. The wavelet parameters may be used to infer the eccentricity of the binary, measuring $\log_{10}(1-e)$ within an error of $20\%$. Our proposed search method can thus constrain the parameter space to be sampled by complementary Bayesian inference methods, which use waveform templates or orthogonal wavelets to reconstruct and subtract the signal from LISA data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Blind spots and biases: the dangers of ignoring eccentricity in gravitational-wave signals from binary black holes

Most gravitational wave (GW) events observed by the LIGO and Virgo detectors are consistent with mergers of binary black holes (BBHs) on quasi-circular orbits. However, some events are also consistent with non-zero orbital eccentricity, which can indicate that the binary formed via dynamical interactions. Active GW search pipelines using quasi-circular waveform templates are inefficient for detecting eccentric mergers. Also, analysing eccentric GW signals with waveform models neglecting eccentricity can lead to biases in the recovered parameters. We explore the detectability and characterisation of eccentric signals when searches and analyses rely on quasi-circular waveform models. We find that for a reference eccentric population, the fraction of events having fitting factor (FF) $< 0.95$ can be up to $\approx 2.2\%$ compared to $\approx 0.4\%$ for the baseline population. This leads to the loss in signal recovery fraction for up to $6\%$ for parameter space with non-negligible eccentricity ($e_{10} > 0.01$) and high mass ratio ($q > 3$). We perform parameter estimation (PE) for non-spinning and aligned-spin eccentric GW injections from BBHs with a total mass $M=35 M_\odot$, based on numerical relativity simulations and an EOB based inspiral-merger-ringdown model (TEOBResumS). We recover these injections using both quasi-circular and eccentric waveform models. For cases with $e_{20} \sim 0.1$, quasi-circular models fail to estimate chirp mass within the 90% credible interval accurately. Further, for these low-mass injections, spin-induced precession does not mimic eccentricity. For injections of $e_{20}\sim 0.1$, PE conducted with an inspiral-only eccentric waveform model correctly characterises the injected signal to within 90% confidence, and recovers the injected eccentricities, suggesting that such models are sufficient for characterisation of low-mass eccentric BBH. (abridged)

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Double black hole mergers in nuclear star clusters: eccentricities, spins, masses, and the growth of massive seeds

We investigate the formation of intermediate mass black holes (IMBHs) through hierarchical mergers of stellar origin black holes (BHs), as well as BH mergers formed dynamically in nuclear star clusters. Using a semi-analytical approach which incorporates probabilistic mass-function-dependent double BH (DBH) pairing, binary-single encounters, and a mass-ratio-dependent prescription for energy dissipation in hardening binaries, we find that IMBHs with masses of $O(10^2)$-$O(10^4)\rm M_\odot$ can be formed solely through hierarchical mergers in timescales of a few $100$ Myrs to a few Gyrs. Clusters with escape velocities $\gtrsim400$ km s$^{-1}$ inevitably form high-mass IMBHs. The spin distribution of IMBHs with masses $\gtrsim 10^3$ M$_\odot$ is strongly clustered at $χ\sim 0.15$; while for lower masses, it peaks at $χ\sim 0.7$. Eccentric mergers are more frequent for equal-mass binaries containing first-and/or second-generation BHs. Metal-rich, young, dense clusters can produce up to $20\%$ of their DBH mergers with eccentricity $\geq0.1$ at $10\,\rm Hz$, and $\sim2$-$9\%$ of all in-cluster mergers can form at $>10$ Hz. Nuclear star clusters are therefore promising environments for the formation of highly-eccentric DBH mergers, detectable with current gravitational-wave detectors. Clusters of extreme mass ($\sim10^8$ M$_\odot$) and density ($\sim10^8$ M$_\odot$pc$^{-3}$) can have about half of all of their DBH mergers with primary masses $\geq100$ M$_\odot$. The fraction of in-cluster mergers increases rapidly with increasing cluster escape velocity, being nearly unity for $v_{\rm esc}\gtrsim 200$ km s$^{-1}$. Cosmological merger rate of DBHs from nuclear clusters varies $\lessapprox0.01-1$ Gpc$^{-3}$yr$^{-1}$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Rapid population synthesis of black-hole high-mass X-ray binaries: implications for binary stellar evolution

We conduct binary population synthesis to investigate the formation of wind-fed high-mass X-ray binaries containing black holes (BH-HMXBs). We evolve multiple populations of high-mass binary stars and consider BH-HMXB formation rates, masses, spins and separations. We find that systems similar to Cygnus X-1 likely form after stable Case A mass transfer (MT) from the main sequence progenitors of black holes, provided such MT is characterised by low accretion efficiency, $β\lesssim 0.1$, with modest orbital angular momentum losses from the non-accreted material. Additionally, efficient BH-HMXB formation relies on a new simple treatment for Case A MT that allows donors to retain larger core masses compared to traditional rapid population-synthesis assumptions. At solar metallicity, our Preferred model yields $\mathcal{O}(1)$ observable BH-HMXBs in the Galaxy today, consistent with observations. In this simulation, $8\%$ of BH-HMXBs go on to merge as binary black holes or neutron star-black hole binaries within a Hubble time; however, none of the merging binaries have BH-HMXB progenitors with properties similar to Cygnus X-1. With our preferred settings for core mass growth, mass transfer efficiency and angular momentum loss, accounting for an evolving metallicity, and integrating over the metallicity-specific star formation history of the Universe, we find that BH-HMXBs may have contributed $\approx2$--$5$ BBH merger signals to detections reported in the third gravitational-wave transient catalogue of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration. We also suggest MT efficiency should be higher during stable Case B MT than during Case A MT.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Eccentricity or spin precession? Distinguishing subdominant effects in gravitational-wave data

Eccentricity and spin precession are key observables in gravitational-wave astronomy, encoding precious information about the astrophysical formation of compact binaries together with fine details of the relativistic two-body problem. However, the two effects can mimic each other in the emitted signals, raising issues around their distinguishability. Since inferring the existence of both eccentricity and spin precession simultaneously is -- at present -- not possible, current state-of-the-art analyses assume that either one of the effects may be present in the data. In such a setup, what are the conditions required for a confident identification of either effect? We present simulated parameter inference studies in realistic LIGO/Virgo noise, studying events consistent with either spin precessing or eccentric binary black hole coalescences and recovering under the assumption that either of the two effects may be at play. We quantify how the distinguishability of eccentricity and spin precession increases with the number of visible orbital cycles, confirming that the signal must be sufficiently long for the two effects to be separable. The threshold depends on the injected source, with inclination, eccentricity, and effective spin playing crucial roles. In particular, for injections similar to GW190521, we find that it is impossible to confidently distinguish eccentricity from spin precession.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Gravitational-wave inference for eccentric binaries: the argument of periapsis

Gravitational waves from binary black hole mergers have allowed us to directly observe stellar-mass black hole binaries for the first time, and therefore explore their formation channels. One of the ways to infer how a binary system is assembled is by measuring the system's orbital eccentricity. Current methods of parameter estimation do not include all physical effects of eccentric systems such as spin-induced precession, higher-order modes, and the initial argument of periapsis: an angle describing the orientation of the orbital ellipse. We explore how varying the argument of periapsis changes gravitational waveforms and study its effect on the inference of astrophysical parameters. We use the eccentric spin-aligned waveforms TEOBResumS and SEOBNRE to measure the change in the waveforms as the argument of periapsis is changed. We find that the argument of periapsis could already be impacting analyses performed with TEOBResumS. However, it is likely to be well-resolvable in the foreseeable future only for the loudest events observed by LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA. The systematic error in previous, low-eccentricity analyses that have not considered the argument of periapsis is likely to be small.

gr-qc↗