arXiv subjects

Isobel M. Romero-Shaw

Publications and source records attributed to Isobel M. Romero-Shaw.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Four eccentric mergers increase the evidence that LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA's binary black holes form dynamically

The growing population of compact binary mergers detected with gravitational waves contains multiple events that are challenging to explain through isolated binary evolution. Such events have higher masses than are expected in isolated binaries, component spin-tilt angles that are misaligned, and/or non-negligible orbital eccentricities. We investigate the orbital eccentricities of 62 binary black hole candidates from the third gravitational-wave transient catalogue of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration with an aligned-spin, moderate-eccentricity waveform model. Within this framework, we find that at least four of these events show significant support for eccentricity $e_{10} \geq 0.1$ at a gravitational-wave frequency of $10$~Hz ($> 60\%$ credibility, under a log-uniform eccentricity prior that spans the range $10^{-4} < e_{10} < 0.2$). Two of these events are new additions to the population: GW191109 and GW200208\_22. If the four eccentric candidates are truly eccentric, our results suggest that densely-populated star clusters may produce 100\% of the observed mergers. However, it remains likely that other formation environments with higher yields of eccentric mergers -- for example, active galactic nuclei -- also contribute. We estimate that we will be able to confidently distinguish which formation channel dominates the eccentric merger rate after $\gtrsim 80$ detections of events with $e_{10} \geq 0.05$ at LIGO--Virgo sensitivity, with only $\sim 5$ detectably-eccentric events required to distinguish formation channels with third-generation gravitational-wave detectors.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

A Rosetta Stone for eccentric gravitational waveform models

Orbital eccentricity is a key signature of dynamical binary black hole formation. The gravitational waves from a coalescing binary contain information about its orbital eccentricity, which may be measured if the binary retains sufficient eccentricity near merger. Dedicated waveforms are required to measure eccentricity. Several models have been put forward, and show good agreement with numerical relativity at the level of a few percent or better. However, there are multiple ways to define eccentricity for inspiralling systems, and different models internally use different definitions of eccentricity, making it difficult to directly compare eccentricity measurements. In this work, we systematically compare two eccentric waveform models, $\texttt{SEOBNRE}$ and $\texttt{TEOBResumS}$, by developing a framework to translate between different definitions of eccentricity. This mapping is constructed by minimizing the relative mismatch between the two models over eccentricity and reference frequency, before evolving the eccentricity of one model to the same reference frequency as the other model. We show that for a given value of eccentricity passed to $\texttt{SEOBNRE}$, one must input a $20$-$50\%$ smaller value of eccentricity to $\texttt{TEOBResumS}$ in order to obtain a waveform with the same empirical eccentricity. We verify this mapping by repeating our analysis for eccentric numerical relativity simulations, demonstrating that $\texttt{TEOBResumS}$ reports a correspondingly smaller value of eccentricity than $\texttt{SEOBNRE}$.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

When models fail: an introduction to posterior predictive checks and model misspecification in gravitational-wave astronomy

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool in gravitational-wave astronomy. It enables us to deduce the properties of merging compact-object binaries and to determine how these mergers are distributed as a population according to mass, spin, and redshift. As key results are increasingly derived using Bayesian inference, there is increasing scrutiny on Bayesian methods. In this review, we discuss the phenomenon of \textit{model misspecification}, in which results obtained with Bayesian inference are misleading because of deficiencies in the assumed model(s). Such deficiencies can impede our inferences of the true parameters describing physical systems. They can also reduce our ability to distinguish the "best fitting" model: it can be misleading to say that Model~A is preferred over Model~B if both models are manifestly poor descriptions of reality. Broadly speaking, there are two ways in which models fail: models that fail to adequately describe the data (either the signal or the noise) have misspecified likelihoods. Population models -- designed, for example, to describe the distribution of black hole masses -- may fail to adequately describe the true population due to a misspecified prior. We recommend tests and checks that are useful for spotting misspecified models using examples inspired by gravitational-wave astronomy. We include companion python notebooks to illustrate essential concepts.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Implications of Eccentric Observations on Binary Black Hole Formation Channels

Orbital eccentricity is one of the most robust discriminators for distinguishing between dynamical and isolated formation scenarios of binary black hole mergers using gravitational-wave observatories such as LIGO and Virgo. Using state-of-the-art cluster models, we show how selection effects impact the detectable distribution of eccentric mergers from clusters. We show that the observation (or lack thereof) of eccentric binary black hole mergers can significantly constrain the fraction of detectable systems that originate from dynamical environments, such as dense star clusters. After roughly 150 observations, observing no eccentric binary signals would indicate that clusters cannot make up the majority of the merging binary black hole population in the local universe (95% credibility). However, if dense star clusters dominate the rate of eccentric mergers and a single system is confirmed to be measurably eccentric in the first and second gravitational-wave transient catalogs, clusters must account for at least 14% of detectable binary black hole mergers. The constraints on the fraction of detectable systems from dense star clusters become significantly tighter as the number of eccentric observations grows and will be constrained to within 0.5 dex once 10 eccentric binary black holes are observed.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Signs of eccentricity in two gravitational-wave signals may indicate a sub-population of dynamically assembled binary black holes

The orbital eccentricity of a merging binary black hole leaves an imprint on the associated gravitational-wave signal that can reveal whether the binary formed in isolation or in a dynamical environment, such as the core of a dense star cluster. We present measurements of the eccentricity of 26 binary black hole mergers in the second LIGO--Virgo gravitational-wave transient catalog, updating the total number of binary black holes analysed for orbital eccentricity to 36. Using the \texttt{SEOBNRE} waveform, we find the data for GW190620A is poorly explained by the zero-eccentricity hypothesis (frequentist $p$-value $\lesssim 0.1\%$). Using a log-uniform prior on eccentricity, the eccentricity at $\unit[10]{Hz}$ for GW190620A is constrained to $e_{10}\geq0.05$ ($0.1$) at $74\%$ ($65\%$) credibility. With this log-uniform prior, we obtain a $90\%$ credible lower eccentricity limit of $0.001$, while assuming a uniform prior leads the data to prefer $e_{10} \geq 0.11$ at $90\%$ credibility. This is the second measurement of a binary black hole system with statistical support for non-zero eccentricity; the intermediate-mass black hole merger GW190521 was the first. Interpretation of these two events is currently complicated by waveform systematics; we are unable to simultaneously model the effects of relativistic precession and eccentricity. However, if these two events are, in fact, eccentric mergers, then there are potentially many more dynamically assembled mergers in the LIGO--Virgo catalog without measurable eccentricity; $\gtrsim 27\%$ of the observed LIGO--Virgo binaries may have been assembled dynamically in dense stellar environments ($95\%$ credibility).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Gravitational Waves as a Probe of Globular Cluster Formation and Evolution

Globular clusters are considered to be likely breeding grounds for compact binary mergers. In this paper, we demonstrate how the gravitational-wave signals produced by compact object mergers can act as tracers of globular cluster formation and evolution. Globular cluster formation is a long-standing mystery in astrophysics, with multiple competing theories describing when and how globular clusters formed. The limited sensitivity of electromagnetic telescopes inhibits our ability to directly observe globular cluster formation. However, with future audio-band detectors sensitive out to redshifts of $z \approx 50$ for GW150914-like signals, gravitational-wave astronomy will enable us to probe the Universe when the first globular clusters formed. We simulate a population of binary black hole mergers from theoretically-motivated globular cluster formation models, and construct redshift measurements consistent with the predicted accuracy of third-generation detectors. We show that we can locate the peak time of a cluster formation epoch during reionisation to within 0.05Gyr after one year of observations. The peak of a formation epoch that coincides with the Universal star formation rate can be measured to within 0.4Gyr-10.5Gyr after one year of observations, depending on the relative weighting of the model components.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

GW190521: orbital eccentricity and signatures of dynamical formation in a binary black hole merger signal

Pair instability supernovae are thought to restrict the formation of black holes in the mass range ~50 - 135 solar masses. However, black holes with masses within this "high mass gap" are expected to form as the remnants of binary black hole mergers. These remnants can merge again dynamically in densely populated environments such as globular clusters. The hypothesis that the binary black hole merger GW190521 formed dynamically is supported by its high mass. Orbital eccentricity can also be a signature of dynamical formation, since a binary that merges quickly after becoming bound may not circularize before merger. In this work, we measure the orbital eccentricity of GW190521. We find that the data prefer a signal with eccentricity $e \geq 0.1$ at 10 Hz to a non-precessing, quasi-circular signal, with a log Bayes factor $\ln{\cal B}=5.0$. When compared to precessing, quasi-circular analyses, the data prefer a non-precessing, $e \geq 0.1$ signal, with log Bayes factors $\ln{\cal B}\approx2$. Using injection studies, we find that a non-spinning, moderately eccentric ($e = 0.13$) GW190521-like binary can be mistaken for a quasi-circular, precessing binary. Conversely, a quasi-circular binary with spin-induced precession may be mistaken for an eccentric binary. We therefore cannot confidently determine whether GW190521 was precessing or eccentric. Nevertheless, since both of these properties support the dynamical formation hypothesis, our findings support the hypothesis that GW190521 formed dynamically.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Searching for Eccentricity: Signatures of Dynamical Formation in the First Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogue of LIGO and Virgo

Binary black holes are thought to form primarily via two channels: isolated evolution and dynamical formation. The component masses, spins, and eccentricity of a binary black hole system provide clues to its formation history. We focus on eccentricity, which can be a signature of dynamical formation. Employing the spin-aligned eccentric waveform model SEOBNRE, we perform Bayesian inference to measure the eccentricity of binary black hole merger events in the first Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogue of LIGO and Virgo. We find that all of these events are consistent with zero eccentricity. We set upper limits on eccentricity ranging from 0.02 to 0.05 with 90% confidence at a reference frequency of 10 Hz. These upper limits do not significantly constrain the fraction of LIGO-Virgo events formed dynamically in globular clusters, because only ~ 5% are expected to merge with measurable eccentricity. However, with the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogue set to expand dramatically over the coming months, it may soon be possible to significantly constrain the fraction of mergers taking place in globular clusters using eccentricity measurements.

astro-ph.HE↗