arXiv subjects

Jürgen Kurths

Publications and source records attributed to Jürgen Kurths.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Symbiosis of an artificial neural network and models of biological neurons: training and testing

In this paper we show the possibility of creating and identifying the features of an artificial neural network (ANN) which consists of mathematical models of biological neurons. The FitzHugh--Nagumo (FHN) system is used as an example of model demonstrating simplified neuron activity. First, in order to reveal how biological neurons can be embedded within an ANN, we train the ANN with nonlinear neurons to solve a a basic image recognition problem with MNIST database; and next, we describe how FHN systems can be introduced into this trained ANN. After all, we show that an ANN with FHN systems inside can be successfully trained and its accuracy becomes larger. What has been done above opens up great opportunities in terms of the direction of analog neural networks, in which artificial neurons can be replaced by biological ones. \end{abstract}

cs.NE↗

arXiv2023

Protecting the Texas power grid from tropical cyclones: Increasing resilience by protecting critical lines

The Texan electric network in the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by Tropical Cyclones (TC) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here, we introduce a new approach of combining a probabilistic line fragility model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the temporal evolution of wind-induced failures of transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical hurricanes. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to a static approach, it provides a significant advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that protecting only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outages by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a tool so far missing to effectively strengthen the power grids against future hurricane risks even under limited knowledge.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Network Sparsification via Degree- and Subgraph-based Edge Sampling

Network (or graph) sparsification compresses a graph by removing inessential edges. By reducing the data volume, it accelerates or even facilitates many downstream analyses. Still, the accuracy of many sparsification methods, with filtering-based edge sampling being the most typical one, heavily relies on an appropriate definition of edge importance. Instead, we propose a different perspective with a generalized local-property-based sampling method, which preserves (scaled) local \emph{node} characteristics. Apart from degrees, these local node characteristics we use are the expected (scaled) number of wedges and triangles a node belongs to. Through such a preservation, main complex structural properties are preserved implicitly. We adapt a game-theoretic framework from uncertain graph sampling by including a threshold for faster convergence (at least $4$ times faster empirically) to approximate solutions. Extensive experimental studies on functional climate networks show the effectiveness of this method in preserving macroscopic to mesoscopic and microscopic network structural properties.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Comparative statistical study of two local clustering coefficient formulations as tropical cyclone markers for climate networks

We introduce a new formulation of local clustering coefficient for weighted correlation networks. This new formulation is based upon a definition introduced previously in the neuroscience context and aimed at compensating for spurious correlations caused by indirect interactions. We modify this definition further by replacing Pearson's pairwise correlation coefficients and three-way partial correlation coefficients by the respective Kendall's rank correlations. This reduces statistical sample size requirements to compute the correlations, which translates into the possibility of using shorter time windows and hence into a shorter response time of the real-time climate network analysis. We construct evolving climate networks of mean sea level pressure fluctuations and analyze anomalies of local clustering coefficient in these networks. We develop a broadly applicable statistical methodology to study association between spatially inhomogeneous georeferenced multivariate time series and binary-valued spatiotemporal data (or other data reducible to this representation) and use it to compare the newly proposed formulation of local clustering coefficient (for weighted correlation networks) to the conventional one (for unweighted graphs) in terms of the association of these measures in climate networks to tropical cyclones. Thus we substantiate the previously made observation that tropical cyclones are associated with anomalously high values of local clustering coefficient, and confirm that the new formulation shows a stronger association.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2022

Identification of single- and double-well coherence-incoherence patterns by the binary distance matrix

The study of chimera states or, more generally, coherence-incoherence patterns has led to the development of several tools for their identification and characterization. In this work, we extend the eigenvalue decomposition method to distinguish between single-well and double-well patterns. By applying our method, we are able to identify the following four types of dynamical patterns in a ring of nonlocally coupled Chua circuits and nonlocally coupled cubic maps: single-well cluster, single-well coherence-incoherence pattern, double-well cluster, and double-well coherence-incoherence. In a ring-star network of Chua circuits, we investigate the influence of adding a central node on the spatio-temporal patterns. Our results show that increasing the coupling with the central node favors the occurrence of single-well coherence-incoherence states. We observe that the boundaries of the attraction basins resemble fractal and riddled structures

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2022

Teleconnections among Tipping Elements in the Earth System

Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not fully clear how to assess and quantify the influence of a tipping element and how to explore the teleconnections between different tipping elements. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a climate network approach to quantitatively analyze the global impacts of a prominent tipping element, the Amazon Rainforest Area (ARA). We find that regions, such as, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and West Antarctic ice sheet, are characterized by higher network weighted links and exhibit strong correlations with the ARA. We then identify a teleconnection propagation path between the ARA and the TP. This path is robust under climate change as simulated by various climate models of CMIP5 and CMIP6. In addition, we detect early warning signals for critical transition in the snow cover extent on the Tibetan Plateau by applying critical slowing down indicators, lag-1 autocorrelation and detrended fluctuation analysis. We find that the snow cover of the TP has been losing stability since 2008, revealing that the TP is operating like a tipping element and approaching a potential tipping point. We further uncover that various climate extremes between the ARA and the TP are significantly synchronized under climate change. Our framework provides new insights into how tipping elements are linked to each other and into the potential predictability of cascading tipping dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Linear Response Theory for Renewable Fluctuations in Power Grids with Transmission Losses

We study the spreading of renewable power fluctuations through grids with Ohmic losses on the lines. By formulating a network adapted linear response theory, we find that vulnerability patterns are linked to the left Laplacian eigenvectors of the overdamped eigenmodes. We show that for tree-like networks fluctuations are amplified in the opposite direction of the power flow. This novel mechanism explains vulnerability patterns that were observed in previous numerical simulations of renewable micro-grids. While exact mathematical derivations are only possible for tree like networks with homogeneous response, we show that the mechanisms discovered also explain vulnerability patterns in realistic heterogeneous meshed grids by studying the IEEE RTS-1996 test system.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2022

Dynamic scaling and stochastic fractal in nucleation and growth processes

A class of nucleation and growth models of a stable phase (S-phase) is investigated for various different growth velocities. It is shown that for growth velocities $v\sim s(t)/t$ and $v\sim x/τ(x)$, where $s(t)$ and $τ$ are the mean domain size of the metastable phase (M-phase) and the mean nucleation time respectively, the M-phase decays following a power law. Furthermore, snapshots at different time $t$ are taken to collect data for the distribution function $c(x,t)$ of the domain size $x$ of M-phase are found to obey dynamic scaling. Using the idea of data-collapse we show that each snapshot is a self-similar fractal. However, for $v={\rm const.}$ like in the classical Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (KJMA) model and for $v\sim 1/t$ the decay of the M-phase are exponential and they are not accompanied by dynamic scaling. We find a perfect agreement between numerical simulation and analytical results.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Study of Interaction and Complete Merging of Binary Cyclones Using Complex Networks

Cyclones are amongst the most hazardous extreme weather events on Earth. When two co-rotating cyclones come in close proximity, a possibility of complete merger (CM) arises due to their interactions. However, identifying the transitions in the interaction of binary cyclones and predicting the merger is challenging for weather forecasters. In the present study, we suggest an innovative approach to understand the evolving vortical interactions between the cyclones during two such CM events using time-evolving induced velocity based unweighted directed networks. We find that network-based indicators, namely, in-degree and out-degree, can quantify the changes during the interaction between two cyclones and are better candidates than the traditionally used separation distance to classify the interaction stages before a CM. The network indicators also help to identify the dominating cyclone during the period of interaction and quantify the variation of the strength of the dominating and merged cyclones. Finally, we show that the network measures also provide an early indication of the CM event well before its occurrence.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

PrEF: Percolation-based Evolutionary Framework for the diffusion-source-localization problem in large networks

We assume that the state of a number of nodes in a network could be investigated if necessary, and study what configuration of those nodes could facilitate a better solution for the diffusion-source-localization (DSL) problem. In particular, we formulate a candidate set which contains the diffusion source for sure, and propose the method, Percolation-based Evolutionary Framework (PrEF), to minimize such set. Hence one could further conduct more intensive investigation on only a few nodes to target the source. To achieve that, we first demonstrate that there are some similarities between the DSL problem and the network immunization problem. We find that the minimization of the candidate set is equivalent to the minimization of the order parameter if we view the observer set as the removal node set. Hence, PrEF is developed based on the network percolation and evolutionary algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated on both model and empirical networks in regard to varied circumstances. Our results show that the developed approach could achieve a much smaller candidate set compared to the state of the art in almost all cases. Meanwhile, our approach is also more stable, i.e., it has similar performance irrespective of varied infection probabilities, diffusion models, and outbreak ranges. More importantly, our approach might provide a new framework to tackle the DSL problem in extreme large networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Predicting Basin Stability of Power Grids using Graph Neural Networks

The prediction of dynamical stability of power grids becomes more important and challenging with increasing shares of renewable energy sources due to their decentralized structure, reduced inertia and volatility. We investigate the feasibility of applying graph neural networks (GNN) to predict dynamic stability of synchronisation in complex power grids using the single-node basin stability (SNBS) as a measure. To do so, we generate two synthetic datasets for grids with 20 and 100 nodes respectively and estimate SNBS using Monte-Carlo sampling. Those datasets are used to train and evaluate the performance of eight different GNN-models. All models use the full graph without simplifications as input and predict SNBS in a nodal-regression-setup. We show that SNBS can be predicted in general and the performance significantly changes using different GNN-models. Furthermore, we observe interesting transfer capabilities of our approach: GNN-models trained on smaller grids can directly be applied on larger grids without the need of retraining.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Perspectives on the importance of complex systems in understanding ourclimate and climate change -- The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021

The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 was awarded to Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann, and Giorgio Parisi for their 'groundbreaking contributions to our understanding of complex systems' including major advances in the understanding of our climate and climate change. In this perspective article, we review their key contributions and discuss their relevance in relation to the present understanding of our climate. We conclude by outlining some promising research directions and open questions in climate science.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Rijke tube: A nonlinear oscillator

Dynamical systems theory has emerged as an interdisciplinary area of research to characterize the complex dynamical transitions in real-world systems. Various nonlinear dynamical phenomena and bifurcations have been discovered over the decades using different reduced-order models of oscillators. Different measures and methodologies have been developed theoretically to detect, control, or suppress the nonlinear oscillations. However, obtaining such phenomena experimentally is often challenging, time-consuming, and risky, mainly due to the limited control of certain parameters during experiments. With this review, we aim to introduce a paradigmatic and easily configurable Rijke tube oscillator to the dynamical systems community. The Rijke tube is commonly used by the combustion community as a prototype to investigate the detrimental phenomena of thermoacoustic instability. Recent investigations in such Rijke tubes have utilized various methodologies from dynamical systems theory to better understand the occurrence of thermoacoustic oscillations, their prediction and mitigation, both experimentally and theoretically. The existence of various dynamical behaviors has been reported in single as well as coupled Rijke tube oscillators. These behaviors include bifurcations, routes to chaos, noise-induced transitions, synchronization, and suppression of oscillations. Various early warning measures have been established to predict thermoacoustic instabilities. Therefore, this review paper consolidates the usefulness of a Rijke tube oscillator in terms of experimentally discovering and modeling different nonlinear phenomena observed in physics; thus, transcending the boundaries between the physics and the engineering communities.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2022

Ambient Forcing: Sampling Local Perturbations in Constrained Phase Spaces

Ambient Forcing is a novel method to sample random states from manifolds of differential-algebraic equations (DAE). These states can represent local perturbations of nodes in power systems with loads, which introduces constraints into the system. These states must be valid initial conditions to the DAE, meaning that they fulfill the algebraic equations. Additionally, these states should represent perturbations of individual variables in the power grid, such as a perturbation of the voltage at a load. These initial states enable the calculation of probabilistic stability measures of power systems with loads, which was not yet possible, but is important as these measures have become a crucial tool in studying power systems. To verify that these perturbations are network local, i.e. that the initial perturbation only targets a single node in the power grid, a new measure, the spreadability, related to the closeness centrality, is presented. The spreadability is evaluated for an ensemble of typical power grids. The ensemble depicts a set of future power grids where consumers, as well as producers, are connected to the grid via inverters. For this power grid ensemble, we additionally calculate the basin stability as well as the survivability, two probabilistic measures which provide statements about asymptotic and transient stability. We also revisit topological classes, that have been shown to predict the basin stability of grids and explore if they still hold for grids with constraints and voltage dynamics. We find that the degree of the nodes is a better predictor than the topological classes for our ensemble. Finally, ambient forcing is applied to calculate probabilistic stability measures of the IEEE 96 test case.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2021

Probabilistic Behavioral Distance and Tuning - Reducing and aggregating complex systems

Given a complex system with a given interface to the rest of the world, what does it mean for a the system to behave close to a simpler specification describing the behavior at the interface? We give several definitions for useful notions of distances between a complex system and a specification by combining a behavioral and probabilistic perspective. These distances can be used to tune a complex system to a specification. We show that our approach can successfully tune non-linear networked systems to behave like much smaller networks, allowing us to aggregate large sub-networks into one or two effective nodes. Finally, we discuss similarities and differences between our approach and $H_\infty$ model reduction.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

The climatic interdependence of extreme-rainfall events around the globe

The identification of regions of similar climatological behavior can be utilized for the discovery of spatial relationships over long-range scales, including teleconnections. In this regard, the global picture of the interdependence patterns of extreme rainfall events (EREs) still needs to be further explored. To this end, we propose a top-down complex-network-based clustering workflow, with the combination of consensus clustering and mutual correspondences. Consensus clustering provides a reliable community structure under each dataset, while mutual correspondences build a matching relationship between different community structures obtained from different datasets. This approach ensures the robustness of the identified structures when multiple datasets are available. By applying it simultaneously to two satellite-derived precipitation datasets, we identify consistent synchronized structures of EREs around the globe, during boreal summer. Two of them show independent spatiotemporal characteristics, uncovering the primary compositions of different monsoon systems. They explicitly manifest the primary intraseasonal variability in the context of the global monsoon, in particular the `monsoon jump' over both East Asia and West Africa and the mid-summer drought over Central America and southern Mexico. Through a case study related to the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), we verify that the intraseasonal changes of upper-level atmospheric conditions are preserved by significant connections within the global synchronization structure. Our work advances network-based clustering methodology for (i) decoding the spatiotemporal configuration of interdependence patterns of natural variability and for (ii) the intercomparison of these patterns, especially regarding their spatial distributions over different datasets.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods

We propose a comprehensive framework able to address both the predictability of the first and of the second kind for high-dimensional chaotic models. For this purpose, we analyse the properties of a newly introduced multistable climate toy model constructed by coupling the Lorenz '96 model with a zero-dimensional energy balance model. First, the attractors of the system are identified with Monte Carlo Basin Bifurcation Analysis. Additionally, we are able to detect the Melancholia state separating the two attractors. Then, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations are applied in order to predict the future state of the system in both of the identified attractors.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2021

MFDFA: Efficient Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in Python

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) has become a central method to characterise the variability and uncertainty in empiric time series. Extracting the fluctuations on different temporal scales allows quantifying the strength and correlations in the underlying stochastic properties, their scaling behaviour, as well as the level of fractality. Several extensions to the fundamental method have been developed over the years, vastly enhancing the applicability of MFDFA, e.g. empirical mode decomposition for the study of long-range correlations and persistence. In this article we introduce an efficient, easy-to-use python library for MFDFA, incorporating the most common extensions and harnessing the most of multi-threaded processing for very fast calculations.

physics.comp-ph↗