arXiv subjects

Jürgen Kurths

Publications and source records attributed to Jürgen Kurths.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Non-invasive analysis of blood-brain barrier permeability based on wavelet and machine learning approaches

The blood-brain barrier plays a decisive role in protecting the brain from toxins and pathogens. The ability to analyze the BBB opening (OBBB) is crucial for the treatment of many brain diseases, but it is very difficult to noninvasively monitor OBBB. In this paper we analyse the EEG series of healthy rats in free behaviour and after music-induced OBBB. The research is performed using two completely different methods based on wavelet analysis and machine learning approach. Both methods enable us to recognize OBBB and are in a good agreement with each other. The comparative analysis was carried out using F-measures and ROC-curves.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2021

Statistical Analysis of Tipping Pathways in Agent-Based Models

Agent-based models are a natural choice for modeling complex social systems. In such models simple stochastic interaction rules for a large population of individuals can lead to emergent dynamics on the macroscopic scale, for instance a sudden shift of majority opinion or behavior. Here, we are concerned with studying noise-induced tipping between relevant subsets of the agent state space representing characteristic configurations. Due to the large number of interacting individuals, agent-based models are high-dimensional, though usually a lower-dimensional structure of the emerging collective behaviour exists. We therefore apply Diffusion Maps, a non-linear dimension reduction technique, to reveal the intrinsic low-dimensional structure. We characterize the tipping behaviour by means of Transition Path Theory, which helps gaining a statistical understanding of the tipping paths such as their distribution, flux and rate. By systematically studying two agent-based models that exhibit a multitude of tipping pathways and cascading effects, we illustrate the practicability of our approach.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Optimization of coupling and global collapse in diffusively coupled socio-ecological resource exploitation networks

Single- and multi-layer complex networks have been proven as a powerful tool to study the dynamics within social, technological,or natural systems. An often observed common goal there is to optimize these systems for specific purposes by minimizing certain costs while maximizing a desired output. Acknowledging that especially real-world systems from the coupled socio-ecological realm are highly intertwined this work exemplifies that in such systems the optimization of a certain subsystem, e.g., to increase the resilience against external pressure in an ecological network, may unexpectedly diminish the stability of the whole coupled system. For this purpose we utilize an adaptation of a previously proposed conceptual bilayer network model composed of an ecological network of diffusively coupled resources co-evolving with a social network of interacting agents that harvest these resources and learn each other's strategies depending on individual success. We derive an optimal coupling strength that prevents a collapse in as many resources as possible if one assumes that the agents' strategies remain constant over time. However, we then show that if agents socially learn and adapt strategies according to their neighbors' success, this optimal coupling strength is revealed to be a critical parameter above which the probability for a global collapse in terms of irreversibly depleted resources is high -- an effect that we denote the tragedy of the optimizer. We thus find that measures which stabilize the dynamics within a certain part of a larger co-evolutionary system may unexpectedly cause the emergence of novel undesired globally stable states. Our results therefore underline the importance of holistic approaches for managing socio-ecological systems because stabilizing effects which focus on single subsystems may be counter-beneficial for the system as a whole.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Quantifying model uncertainty for the observed non-Gaussian data by the Hellinger distance

Mathematical models for complex systems under random fluctuations often certain uncertain parameters. However, quantifying model uncertainty for a stochastic differential equation with an $α$-stable Lévy process is still lacking. Here, we propose an approach to infer all the uncertain non-Gaussian parameters and other system parameters by minimizing the Hellinger distance over the parameter space. The Hellinger distance measures the similarity between an empirical probability density of non-Gaussian observations and a solution (as a probability density) of the associated nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation. Numerical experiments verify that our method is feasible for estimating single and multiple parameters. Meanwhile, we find an optimal estimation interval of the estimated parameters. This method is beneficial for extracting governing dynamical system models under non-Gaussian fluctuations, as in the study of abrupt climate changes in the Dansgaard-Oeschger events.

math.DS↗

arXiv2020

Anticipation-induced social tipping -- Can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?

In the past decades human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby leading to dynamical feedbacks between the social and natural Earth system. Contemporary modelling attempts of Earth system dynamics rarely incorporate such co-evolutions and interactions are mostly studied unidirectionally through direct or remembered past impacts. Acknowledging that societies have the additional capability for foresight, this work proposes a conceptual feedback model of socio-ecological co-evolution with the specific construct of anticipation acting as a mediator between the social and natural system. Our model reproduces results from previous sociological threshold models with bi-stability if one assumes a static environment. Once the environment changes in response to societal behaviour the system instead converges towards a globally stable, but not necessarily desired, attractor. Ultimately, we show that anticipation of future ecological states then leads to metastability of the system where desired states can persist for a long time. We thereby demonstrate that foresight and anticipation form an important mechanism which, once its time horizon becomes large enough, fosters social tipping towards behaviour that can stabilise the environment and prevents potential socio-ecological collapse.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

From lakes and glades to viability algorithms: Automatic classification of system states according to the Topology of Sustainable Management

The framework Topology of Sustainable Management by Heitzig et al. (2016) distinguishes qualitatively different regions in state space of dynamical models representing manageable systems with default dynamics. In this paper, we connect the framework to viability theory by defining its main components based on viability kernels and capture basins. This enables us to use the Saint-Pierre algorithm to visualize the shape and calculate the volume of the main partition of the Topology of Sustainable Management. We present an extension of the algorithm to compute implicitly defined capture basins. To demonstrate the applicability of our approach, we introduce a low-complexity model coupling environmental and socioeconomic dynamics. With this example, we also address two common estimation problems: an unbounded state space and highly varying time scales. We show that appropriate coordinate transformations can solve these problems. It is thus demonstrated how algorithmic approaches from viability theory can be used to get a better understanding of the state space of manageable dynamical systems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Multi-task GANs for Semantic Segmentation and Depth Completion with Cycle Consistency

Semantic segmentation and depth completion are two challenging tasks in scene understanding, and they are widely used in robotics and autonomous driving. Although several works are proposed to jointly train these two tasks using some small modifications, like changing the last layer, the result of one task is not utilized to improve the performance of the other one despite that there are some similarities between these two tasks. In this paper, we propose multi-task generative adversarial networks (Multi-task GANs), which are not only competent in semantic segmentation and depth completion, but also improve the accuracy of depth completion through generated semantic images. In addition, we improve the details of generated semantic images based on CycleGAN by introducing multi-scale spatial pooling blocks and the structural similarity reconstruction loss. Furthermore, considering the inner consistency between semantic and geometric structures, we develop a semantic-guided smoothness loss to improve depth completion results. Extensive experiments on Cityscapes dataset and KITTI depth completion benchmark show that the Multi-task GANs are capable of achieving competitive performance for both semantic segmentation and depth completion tasks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades

Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and their interactions in a conceptual and easily extendable framework: the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Amazon rainforest. In this nonlinear and multistable system, we perform a basin stability analysis to detect its stable states and their associated Earth system resilience. Using this approach, we perform a system-wide and comprehensive robustness analysis with more than 3.5 billion ensemble members. Further, we investigate dynamic regimes where some of the states lose stability and oscillations appear using a newly developed basin bifurcation analysis methodology. Our results reveal that the state of four or five tipped elements has the largest basin volume for large levels of global warming beyond 4 °C above pre-industrial climate conditions. For lower levels of warming, states including disintegrated ice sheets on West Antarctica and Greenland have higher basin volume than other state configurations. Therefore in our model, we find that the large ice sheets are of particular importance for Earth system resilience. We also detect the emergence of limit cycles for 0.6% of all ensemble members at rare parameter combinations. Such limit cycle oscillations mainly occur between the Greenland Ice Sheet and AMOC (86%), due to their negative feedback coupling. These limit cycles point to possibly dangerous internal modes of variability in the climate system that could have played a role in paleoclimatic dynamics such as those unfolding during the Pleistocene ice age cycles.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Rate-dependent bifurcation dodging in a thermoacoustic system driven by colored noise

Tipping in multistable systems occurs usually by varying the input slightly, resulting in the output switching to an often unsatisfactory state. This phenomenon is manifested in thermoacoustic systems. This thermoacoustic instability may lead to the disintegration of rocket engines, gas turbines and aeroengines, so it is necessary to design control measures for its suppression. It was speculated that such unwanted instability states may be dodged by changing quickly enough the bifurcation parameters. Thus, in this work, based on a fundamental mathematical model of thermoacoustic systems driven by colored noise, the corresponding Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation of the amplitude is derived by using a stochastic averaging method. A transient dynamical behavior is identified through a probability density analysis. We find that the rate of change of parameters and the correlation time of the noise are helpful to dodge thermoacoustic instability, while a relatively large noise intensity is a disadvantageous factor. In addition, power-law relationships between the maximum amplitude and the noise parameters are explored, and the probability of successfully dodging a thermoacoustic instability is calculated. These results serve as a guide to the design of engines and to propose an effective control strategy, which is of great significance to aerospace-related fields.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Macroscopic approximation methods for the analysis of adaptive networked agent-based models: The example of a two-sector investment model

In this paper, we propose a statistical aggregation method for agent-based models with heterogeneous agents that interact both locally on a complex adaptive network and globally on a market. The method combines three approaches from statistical physics: (a) moment closure, (b) pair approximation of adaptive network processes, and (c) thermodynamic limit of the resulting stochastic process. As an example of use, we develop a stochastic agent-based model with heterogeneous households that invest in either a fossil-fuel or renewables-based sector while allocating labor on a competitive market. Using the adaptive voter model, the model describes agents as social learners that interact on a dynamic network. We apply the approximation methods to derive a set of ordinary differential equations that approximate the macro-dynamics of the model. A comparison of the reduced analytical model with numerical simulations shows that the approximation fits well for a wide range of parameters. The proposed method makes it possible to use analytical tools to better understand the dynamical properties of models with heterogeneous agents on adaptive networks. We showcase this with a bifurcation analysis that identifies parameter ranges with multi-stabilities. The method can thus help to explain emergent phenomena from network interactions and make them mathematically traceable.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

Iterative learning control in prosumer-based microgrids with hierarchical control

Power systems are subject to fundamental changes due to the increasing infeed of renewable energy sources. Taking the accompanying decentralization of power generation into account, the concept of prosumer-based microgrids gives the opportunity to rethink structuring and operation of power systems from scratch. In a prosumer-based microgrid, each power grid node can feed energy into the grid and draw energy from the grid. The concept allows for spatial aggregation such that also an interaction between microgrids can be represented as a prosumer-based microgrid. The contribution of this work is threefold: (i) we propose a decentralized hierarchical control approach in a network including different time scales, (ii) we use iterative learning control to compensate periodic demand patterns and save lower layer control energy and (iii) we assure asymptotic stability and monotonic convergence in the iteration domain for the linearized dynamics and validate the performance by simulating the nonlinear dynamics.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

When Autonomous Systems Meet Accuracy and Transferability through AI: A Survey

With widespread applications of artificial intelligence (AI), the capabilities of the perception, understanding, decision-making and control for autonomous systems have improved significantly in the past years. When autonomous systems consider the performance of accuracy and transferability, several AI methods, like adversarial learning, reinforcement learning (RL) and meta-learning, show their powerful performance. Here, we review the learning-based approaches in autonomous systems from the perspectives of accuracy and transferability. Accuracy means that a well-trained model shows good results during the testing phase, in which the testing set shares a same task or a data distribution with the training set. Transferability means that when a well-trained model is transferred to other testing domains, the accuracy is still good. Firstly, we introduce some basic concepts of transfer learning and then present some preliminaries of adversarial learning, RL and meta-learning. Secondly, we focus on reviewing the accuracy or transferability or both of them to show the advantages of adversarial learning, like generative adversarial networks (GANs), in typical computer vision tasks in autonomous systems, including image style transfer, image superresolution, image deblurring/dehazing/rain removal, semantic segmentation, depth estimation, pedestrian detection and person re-identification (re-ID). Then, we further review the performance of RL and meta-learning from the aspects of accuracy or transferability or both of them in autonomous systems, involving pedestrian tracking, robot navigation and robotic manipulation. Finally, we discuss several challenges and future topics for using adversarial learning, RL and meta-learning in autonomous systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Universality in spectral condensation

Self-organization is the spontaneous formation of spatial, temporal, or spatiotemporal patterns in complex systems far from equilibrium. During such self-organization, energy distributed in a broadband of frequencies gets condensed into a dominant mode, analogous to a condensation phenomena. We call this phenomenon spectral condensation and study its occurrence in fluid mechanical, optical and electronic systems. We define a set of spectral measures to quantify this condensation spanning several dynamical systems. Further, we uncover an inverse power law behaviour of spectral measures with the power corresponding to the dominant peak in the power spectrum in all the aforementioned systems.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Impact of Network Topology on the Stability of DC Microgrids

We probe the stability of Watts-Strogatz DC microgrids, in which droop-controlled producers and constant power load consumers are homogeneously distributed and obey Kirchhoff's circuit laws. The concept of survivability is employed to evaluate the system's response to Dirac delta voltage perturbations at single nodes. A fixed point analysis of the power grid model yields that there is only one relevant attractor. Using a set of simulations with random networks we investigate correlations between survivability and three topological network measures: the share of producers in the network and the degree and the average neighbour degree of the perturbed node. Depending on the imposed voltage and current limits, the stability is optimized for low node degrees or a specific share of producers. Based on our findings, we provide an insight into the local dynamics of the perturbed system and derive explicit guidelines for the design of resilient DC power grids.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits for Forecasting the Amount of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food production and security. Despite the development of sophisticated statistical and dynamical climate models, a long-term and reliable prediction of the ISMR has remained a challenging problem. Towards achieving this goal, here we construct a series of dynamical and physical climate networks based on the global near surface air temperature field. We uncover that some characteristics of the directed and weighted climate networks can serve as efficient long-term predictors for ISMR forecasting. The developed prediction method produces a forecast skill of 0.5 with a 5-month lead-time in advance by using the previous calendar year's data. The skill of our ISMR forecast, is comparable to the current state-of-the-art models, however, with quite a short (i.e., within one month) lead-time. We discuss the underlying mechanism of our predictor and associate it with network-delayed-ENSO and ENSO-monsoon connections. Moreover, our approach allows predicting the all India rainfall, as well as forecasting the different Indian homogeneous regions' rainfall, which is crucial for agriculture in India. We reveal that global warming affects the climate network by enhancing cross-equatorial teleconnections between Southwest Atlantic, Western part of the Indian Ocean, and North Asia-Pacific with significant impacts on the precipitation in India. We find a hotspots area in the mid-latitude South Atlantic, which is the basis for our predictor. Remarkably, the significant warming trend in this area yields an improvement of the prediction skill.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

A multilayer, multi-timescale model approach for economic and frequency control in power grids

Power systems are subject to fundamental changes due to the increasing infeed of decentralised renewable energy sources and storage. The decentralised nature of the new actors in the system requires new concepts for structuring the power grid, and achieving a wide range of control tasks ranging from seconds to days. Here we introduce a multiplex dynamical network model covering all control timescales. Crucially, we combine a decentralised, self-organised low-level control and a smart grid layer of devices that can aggregate information from remote sources. The safety-critical task of frequency control is performed by the former, the economic objective of demand matching dispatch by the latter. Having both aspects present in the same model allows us to study the interaction between the layers. Remarkably, we find that adding communication in the form of aggregation does not improve the performance in the cases considered. Instead, the self-organised state of the system already contains the information required to learn the demand structure in the entire grid. The model introduced here is highly flexible, and can accommodate a wide range of scenarios relevant to future power grids. We expect that it is especially useful in the context of low-energy microgrids with distributed generation.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Multiplex Recurrence Networks

We have introduced a novel multiplex recurrence network (MRN) approach by combining recurrence networks with the multiplex network approach in order to investigate multivariate time series. The potential use of this approach is demonstrated on coupled map lattices and a typical example from palaeobotany research. In both examples, topological changes in the multiplex recurrence networks allow for the detection of regime changes in their dynamics. The method goes beyond classical interpretation of pollen records by considering the vegetation as a whole and using the intrinsic similarity in the dynamics of the different regional vegetation elements. We find that the different vegetation types behave more similar when one environmental factor acts as the dominant driving force.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2020

Rate-dependent tipping-delay phenomenon in a thermoacoustic system with colored noise

Tipping is a phenomenon in multistable systems where small changes in inputs cause huge changes in outputs. When the parameter varies within a certain time scale, the rate will affect the tipping behaviors. These behaviors are undesirable in thermoacoustic systems, which are widely used in aviation, power generation and other industries. Thus, this paper aims at considering the tipping behaviors of the thermoacoustic system with the time-varying parameters and the combined excitations of additive and multiplicative colored noises. Transient dynamical behaviors for the proposed thermoacoustic model are implemented through the reduced Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation derived by a standard stochastic averaging method. Then, the tipping problems of the rate-dependent thermoacoustic systems with random fluctuations are studied by virtue of the obtained probability density functions. Our results show that the rate delays the value of the tipping parameter compared to the one with the quasi-steady assumption, which is called as a rate-dependent tipping-delay phenomenon. Besides, the influences of the initial values, the rate, the changing time of the parameters, and the correlation time of the noises on the rate-dependent tipping-delay phenomenon are analyzed in detail. These results are of great significance for research in related fields such as aviation and land gas turbines.

nlin.AO↗