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J. Doyne Farmer

Publications and source records attributed to J. Doyne Farmer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Learning to Manage Investment Portfolios beyond Simple Utility Functions

While investment funds publicly disclose their objectives in broad terms, their managers optimize for complex combinations of competing goals that go beyond simple risk-return trade-offs. Traditional approaches attempt to model this through multi-objective utility functions, but face fundamental challenges in specification and parameterization. We propose a generative framework that learns latent representations of fund manager strategies without requiring explicit utility specification. Our approach directly models the conditional probability of a fund's portfolio weights, given stock characteristics, historical returns, previous weights, and a latent variable representing the fund's strategy. Unlike methods based on reinforcement learning or imitation learning, which require specified rewards or labeled expert objectives, our GAN-based architecture learns directly from the joint distribution of observed holdings and market data. We validate our framework on a dataset of 1436 U.S. equity mutual funds. The learned representations successfully capture known investment styles, such as "growth" and "value," while also revealing implicit manager objectives. For instance, we find that while many funds exhibit characteristics of Markowitz-like optimization, they do so with heterogeneous realizations for turnover, concentration, and latent factors. To analyze and interpret the end-to-end model, we develop a series of tests that explain the model, and we show that the benchmark's expert labeling are contained in our model's encoding in a linear interpretable way. Our framework provides a data-driven approach for characterizing investment strategies for applications in market simulation, strategy attribution, and regulatory oversight.

q-fin.PM↗

Skill and spatial mismatches for sustainable development in Brazil

Structural change is necessary for all countries transitioning to a more environmentally sustainable economy, but what are the likely impacts on workers? Studies often find that green transition scenarios result in net positive job creation numbers overall but rarely provide insights into the more granular dynamics of the labour market. This paper combines a dynamic labour market simulation model with development scenarios focused on agriculture and green manufacturing. We study how, within the context of a green transition, productivity shifts in different sectors and regions, with differing environmental impacts, may affect and be constrained by the labour market in Brazil. By accounting for labour market frictions associated with skill and spatial mismatches, we find that productivity shocks, if not well managed, can exacerbate inequality. Agricultural workers tend to be the most negatively affected as they are less occupationally and geographically mobile. Our results highlight the importance of well-targeted labour market policies to ensure the green transition is just and equitable.

econ.GN↗

Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics using a Calibrated Data-Driven Agent-based Model

In the last few years, economic agent-based models have made the transition from qualitative models calibrated to match stylised facts to quantitative models for time series forecasting, and in some cases, their predictions have performed as well or better than those of standard models (see, e.g. Poledna et al. (2023a); Hommes et al. (2022); Pichler et al. (2022)). Here, we build on the model of Poledna et al., adding several new features such as housing markets, realistic synthetic populations of individuals with income, wealth and consumption heterogeneity, enhanced behavioural rules and market mechanisms, and an enhanced credit market. We calibrate our model for all 38 OECD member countries using state-of-the-art approximate Bayesian inference methods and test it by making out-of-sample forecasts. It outperforms both the Poledna and AR(1) time series models by a highly statistically significant margin. Our model is built within a platform we have developed, making it easy to build, run, and evaluate alternative models, which we hope will encourage future work in this area.

econ.GN↗

Discounting the distant future: What do historical bond prices imply about the long term discount rate?

We present a thorough empirical study on real interest rates by also including risk aversion through the introduction of the market price of risk. With the view of complex systems science and its multidisciplinary approach, we use the theory of bond pricing to study the long term discount rate. Century-long historical records of 3 month bonds, 10 year bonds, and inflation allow us to estimate real interest rates for the UK and the US. Real interest rates are negative about a third of the time and the real yield curves are inverted more than a third of the time, sometimes by substantial amounts. This rules out most of the standard bond pricing models, which are designed for nominal rates that are assumed to be positive. We therefore use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model which allows negative rates and gives a good match to inversions of the yield curve. We derive the discount function using the method of Fourier transforms and fit it to the historical data. The estimated long term discount rate is $1.7$ \% for the UK and $2.2$ \% for the US. The value of $1.4$ \% used by Stern is less than a standard deviation from our estimated long run return rate for the UK, and less than two standard deviations of the estimated value for the US. All of this once more reinforces the support for immediate and substantial spending to combat climate change.

q-fin.MF↗

Towards Evology: a Market Ecology Agent-Based Model of US Equity Mutual Funds II

Agent-based models (ABMs) are fit to model heterogeneous, interacting systems like financial markets. We present the latest advances in Evology: a heterogeneous, empirically calibrated market ecology agent-based model of the US stock market. Prices emerge endogenously from the interactions of market participants with diverse investment behaviours and their reactions to fundamentals. This approach allows testing trading strategies while accounting for the interactions of this strategy with other market participants and conditions. Those early results encourage a closer association between ABMs and ML algorithms for testing and optimising investment strategies using machine learning algorithms.

cs.MA↗

The unequal effects of the health-economy tradeoff during the COVID-19 pandemic

The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models designed to address this issue are either too aggregate to consider heterogeneous outcomes across socio-economic groups, or, when sufficiently fine-grained, not well grounded by empirical data. To fill this gap, we introduce a data-driven, granular, agent-based model that simulates epidemic and economic outcomes across industries, occupations, and income levels with geographic realism. The key mechanism coupling the epidemic and economic modules is the reduction in consumption demand due to fear of infection. We calibrate the model to the first wave of COVID-19 in the New York metropolitan area, showing that it reproduces key epidemic and economic statistics, and then examine counterfactual scenarios. We find that: (a) both high fear of infection and strict restrictions similarly harm the economy but reduce infections; (b) low-income workers bear the brunt of both the economic and epidemic harm; (c) closing non-customer-facing industries such as manufacturing and construction only marginally reduces the death toll while considerably increasing unemployment; and (d) delaying the start of protective measures does little to help the economy and worsens epidemic outcomes in all scenarios. We anticipate that our model will help designing effective and equitable non-pharmaceutical interventions that minimize disruptions in the face of a novel pandemic.

econ.GN↗

Towards Evology: a Market Ecology Agent-Based Model of US Equity Mutual Funds

The profitability of various investment styles in investment funds depends on macroeconomic conditions. Market ecology, which views financial markets as ecosystems of diverse, interacting and evolving trading strategies, has shown that endogenous interactions between strategies determine market behaviour and styles' performance. We present Evology: a heterogeneous, empirically calibrated multi-agent market ecology agent-based model to quantify endogenous interactions between US equity mutual funds, particularly Value and Growth investment styles. We outline the model design, validation and calibration approach and its potential for optimising investment strategies using machine learning algorithms.

cs.MA↗

Calibrating Agent-based Models to Microdata with Graph Neural Networks

Calibrating agent-based models (ABMs) to data is among the most fundamental requirements to ensure the model fulfils its desired purpose. In recent years, simulation-based inference methods have emerged as powerful tools for performing this task when the model likelihood function is intractable, as is often the case for ABMs. In some real-world use cases of ABMs, both the observed data and the ABM output consist of the agents' states and their interactions over time. In such cases, there is a tension between the desire to make full use of the rich information content of such granular data on the one hand, and the need to reduce the dimensionality of the data to prevent difficulties associated with high-dimensional learning tasks on the other. A possible resolution is to construct lower-dimensional time-series through the use of summary statistics describing the macrostate of the system at each time point. However, a poor choice of summary statistics can result in an unacceptable loss of information from the original dataset, dramatically reducing the quality of the resulting calibration. In this work, we instead propose to learn parameter posteriors associated with granular microdata directly using temporal graph neural networks. We will demonstrate that such an approach offers highly compelling inductive biases for Bayesian inference using the raw ABM microstates as output.

cs.MA↗

Measuring productivity dispersion: a parametric approach using the Lévy alpha-stable distribution

It is well-known that value added per worker is extremely heterogeneous among firms, but relatively little has been done to characterize this heterogeneity more precisely. Here we show that the distribution of value-added per worker exhibits heavy tails, a very large support, and consistently features a proportion of negative values, which prevents log transformation. We propose to model the distribution of value added per worker using the four parameter Lévy stable distribution, a natural candidate deriving from the Generalised Central Limit Theorem, and we show that it is a better fit than key alternatives. Fitting a distribution allows us to capture dispersion through the tail exponent and scale parameters separately. We show that these parametric measures of dispersion are at least as useful as interquantile ratios, through case studies on the evolution of dispersion in recent years and the correlation between dispersion and intangible capital intensity.

econ.GN↗

Estimating initial conditions for dynamical systems with incomplete information

In this paper we study the problem of inferring the initial conditions of a dynamical system under incomplete information. Studying several model systems, we infer the latent microstates that best reproduce an observed time series when the observations are sparse,noisy and aggregated under a (possibly) nonlinear observation operator. This is done by minimizing the least-squares distance between the observed time series and a model-simulated time series using gradient-based methods. We validate this method for the Lorenz and Mackey-Glass systems by making out-of-sample predictions. Finally, we analyze the predicting power of our method as a function of the number of observations available. We find a critical transition for the Mackey-Glass system, beyond which it can be initialized with arbitrary precision.

math.DS↗

Black-box Bayesian inference for economic agent-based models

Simulation models, in particular agent-based models, are gaining popularity in economics. The considerable flexibility they offer, as well as their capacity to reproduce a variety of empirically observed behaviours of complex systems, give them broad appeal, and the increasing availability of cheap computing power has made their use feasible. Yet a widespread adoption in real-world modelling and decision-making scenarios has been hindered by the difficulty of performing parameter estimation for such models. In general, simulation models lack a tractable likelihood function, which precludes a straightforward application of standard statistical inference techniques. Several recent works have sought to address this problem through the application of likelihood-free inference techniques, in which parameter estimates are determined by performing some form of comparison between the observed data and simulation output. However, these approaches are (a) founded on restrictive assumptions, and/or (b) typically require many hundreds of thousands of simulations. These qualities make them unsuitable for large-scale simulations in economics and can cast doubt on the validity of these inference methods in such scenarios. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of two classes of black-box approximate Bayesian inference methods that have recently drawn significant attention within the probabilistic machine learning community: neural posterior estimation and neural density ratio estimation. We present benchmarking experiments in which we demonstrate that neural network based black-box methods provide state of the art parameter inference for economic simulation models, and crucially are compatible with generic multivariate time-series data. In addition, we suggest appropriate assessment criteria for future benchmarking of approximate Bayesian inference procedures for economic simulation models.

econ.EM↗

How production networks amplify economic growth

Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other goods, selling the product to households or other producers. We show how this network amplifies the effects of technological improvements as they propagate along chains of production. Longer production chains for an industry bias it towards faster price reduction, and longer production chains for a country bias it towards faster GDP growth. These predictions are in good agreement with data and improve with the passage of time, demonstrating a key influence of production chains in price change and output growth over the long term.

q-fin.GN↗

Simultaneous supply and demand constraints in input-output networks: The case of Covid-19 in Germany, Italy, and Spain

Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries. These direct shocks to supply and demand will propagate downstream and upstream through production networks. Given the exogenous shocks, we derive a lower bound on total shock propagation. We find that even in this best case scenario network effects substantially amplify the initial shocks. To obtain more realistic model predictions, we study the propagation of shocks bottom-up by imposing different rationing rules on industries if they are not able to satisfy incoming demand. Our results show that economic impacts depend strongly on the emergence of input bottlenecks, making the rationing assumption a key variable in predicting adverse economic impacts. We further establish that the magnitude of initial shocks and network density heavily influence model predictions.

econ.GN↗

In and out of lockdown: Propagation of supply and demand shocks in a dynamic input-output model

Economic shocks due to Covid-19 were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. To study the upstream and downstream propagation of these industry-specific demand and supply shocks, we build a dynamic input-output model inspired by previous work on the economic response to natural disasters. We argue that standard production functions, at least in their most parsimonious parametrizations, are not adequate to model input substitutability in the context of Covid-19 shocks. We use a survey of industry analysts to evaluate, for each industry, which inputs were absolutely necessary for production over a short time period. We calibrate our model on the UK economy and study the economic effects of the lockdown that was imposed at the end of March and gradually released in May. Looking back at predictions that we released in May, we show that the model predicted aggregate dynamics very well, and sectoral dynamics to a large extent. We discuss the relative extent to which the model's dynamics and performance was due to the choice of the production function or the choice of an exogenous shock scenario. To further explore the behavior of the model, we use simpler scenarios with only demand or supply shocks, and find that popular metrics used to predict a priori the impact of shocks, such as output multipliers, are only mildly useful.

econ.GN↗

How Market Ecology Explains Market Malfunction

Standard approaches to the theory of financial markets are based on equilibrium and efficiency. Here we develop an alternative based on concepts and methods developed by biologists, in which the wealth invested in a financial strategy is like the abundance of a species. We study a toy model of a market consisting of value investors, trend followers and noise traders. We show that the average returns of strategies are strongly density dependent, i.e. they depend on the wealth invested in each strategy at any given time. In the absence of noise the market would slowly evolve toward an efficient equilibrium, but the statistical uncertainty in profitability (which is adjusted to match real markets) makes this noisy and uncertain. Even in the long term, the market spends extended periods of time away from perfect efficiency. We show how core concepts from ecology, such as the community matrix and food webs, give insight into market behavior. The wealth dynamics of the market ecology explain how market inefficiencies spontaneously occur and gives insight into the origins of excess price volatility and deviations of prices from fundamental values.

q-fin.GN↗

Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?

We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role in restricting economic output. Standard models for production functions are not adequate to model the short-term effects of lockdown. A survey of industry analysts conducted by IHS Markit allows us to evaluate which inputs for each industry are absolutely necessary for production over a two month period. Our model also includes inventory dynamics and feedback between unemployment and consumption. We demonstrate that economic outcomes are very sensitive to the choice of production function, show how supply constraints cause strong network effects, and find some counter-intuitive effects, such as that reopening only a few industries can actually lower aggregate output. Occupation-specific data and contact surveys allow us to estimate how different industries affect the transmission rate of the disease. We investigate six different re-opening scenarios, presenting our best estimates for the increase in R0 and the increase in GDP. Our results suggest that there is a reasonable compromise that yields a relatively small increase in R0 and delivers a substantial boost in economic output. This corresponds to a situation in which all non-consumer facing industries reopen, schools are open only for workers who need childcare, and everyone who can work from home continues to work from home.

econ.GN↗

Technological interdependencies predict innovation dynamics

We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the technological domains it relies on. Using data on US patents from 1836 to 2017, we make out-of-sample predictions and find that the predictability of innovation rates can be boosted substantially when network effects are taken into account. In the case where a technology$'$s neighborhood future innovation rates are known, the average predictability gain is 28$\%$ compared to simpler time series model which do not incorporate network effects. Even when nothing is known about the future, we find positive average predictability gains of 20$\%$. The results have important policy implications, suggesting that the effective support of a given technology must take into account the technological ecosystem surrounding the targeted technology.

physics.soc-ph↗

Statistical analysis and stochastic interest rate modelling for valuing the future with implications in climate change mitigation

High future discounting rates favor inaction on present expending while lower rates advise for a more immediate political action. A possible approach to this key issue in global economy is to take historical time series for nominal interest rates and inflation, and to construct then real interest rates and finally obtaining the resulting discount rate according to a specific stochastic model. Extended periods of negative real interest rates, in which inflation dominates over nominal rates, are commonly observed, occurring in many epochs and in all countries. This feature leads us to choose a well-known model in statistical physics, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model, as a basic dynamical tool in which real interest rates randomly fluctuate and can become negative, even if they tend to revert to a positive mean value. By covering 14 countries over hundreds of years we suggest different scenarios and include an error analysis in order to consider the impact of statistical uncertainty in our results. We find that only 4 of the countries have positive long-run discount rates while the other ten countries have negative rates. Even if one rejects the countries where hyperinflation has occurred, our results support the need to consider low discounting rates. The results provided by these fourteen countries significantly increase the priority of confronting global actions such as climate change mitigation. We finally extend the analysis by first allowing for fluctuations of the mean level in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model and secondly by considering modified versions of the Feller and lognormal models. In both cases, results remain basically unchanged thus demonstrating the robustness of the results presented.

q-fin.MF↗