arXiv subjects

J. Javaraiah

Publications and source records attributed to J. Javaraiah.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Comparison Between Cycle-to-Cycle Variations in the Coefficient of Joy's Law and Covariance of Rotation Residuals and Meridional Motions of Sunspot Groups

The tilts of bipolar magnetic regions are believed to be caused by the action of Coriolis force on rising magnetic flux tubes. Here we analysed the combined Greenwich and Debrecen observatories sunspot-group data during the period 1874-2017 and the tilt angles of sunspot groups measured at Mt. Wilson Observatory during the period 1917-1986 and Debrecen Observatory during the period 1994-2013. We find that there exists about 8-solar cycle (Gleissberg cycle) trend in the long-term variation of the slope of Joy's law (increase of tilt angle with latitude). There exists a reasonably significant correlation between the slope/coefficient of Joy's law and the slope (namely, residual covariance) of the linear relationship between the rotation residuals and meridional motions of sunspot groups in the northern hemisphere and also in the southern hemisphere during Solar Cycles 16-21. We also find that there exists a good correlation between north--south difference (asymmetry) in the coefficient of Joy's law and that in the residual covariance. We consider the residual covariance represents tentatively the coefficient of angular momentum transport. These results suggest that there exists a relationship between the surface/subsurface poleward/equatorward angular momentum transport and the Joy's law. There is a suggestion of the strength of the Joy's law depends on the strength of the poleward angular momentum transport.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 from the ratio of sunspot number to sunspot-group area, low latitude activity, and 130-year solar cycle

We analysed the combined data of sunspot groups from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and determined the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean whole sphere sunspot-group area (WSGA). We have also analysed the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean version 2 of international sunspot number (SN) during the period 1874-2017. We fitted the annual mean WSGA and SN data during each of Solar Cycles 12-24 separately to the linear and nonlinear (parabola) forms. In the cases of Solar Cycles 14, 17, and 24 the nonlinear fits are found better than the linear fits. We find that there exists a secular decreasing trend in the slope of the WSGA-SN linear relation during Solar Cycles 12-24. A secular decreasing trend is also seen in the coefficient of the first order term of the nonlinear relation. The existence of ~77-year variation is seen in the ratio of the amplitude to WSGA at the maximum epoch of solar cycle. From the pattern of this long-term variation of the ratio we inferred that Solar Cycle 25 will be larger than both Solar Cycles 24 and 26. Using an our earlier method (now slightly revised) we predicted 127 (plus or minus 26) and 141 (plus or minus 19) for the amplitude of Solar Cycle~25. Based on ~130-year periodicity found in the cycle-to-cycle variation of the amplitudes of Solar Cycles 12-24 we find the shape of Solar Cycle 25 would be similar to that of Solar Cycle 13 and predicted for Solar Cycle 25 the amplitude 135 (plus or minus 8), maximum epoch 2024.21 (March 2024) plus or minus 6-month, and end epoch 2032.21 (March 2032) plus or minus 6-month with SN ~4.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Dependence of North--South Difference in the Slope of Joy's Law on Amplitude of Solar Cycle

Study of the tilt angles of solar bipolar magnetic regions is important because the tilt angles have an important role in the solar dynamo. We analysed the data on tilt angles of sunspot groups measured at the Mt. Wilson Observatory (MWOB) during the period 1917-1986 and Kodaikanal Observatory (KOB) during the period 1906-1986. We binned the daily tilt-angle data during each of the Solar Cycles 15-21 into different 5-deg. latitude intervals and calculated the mean value of the tilt angles in each latitude interval and the corresponding standard error. We fitted these binned data to Joy's Law (increase of the tilt angle with latitude), i.e. the linear relationship between tilt angle and latitude of an active region. The linear-least-square fit calculations were done by taking into account the uncertainties in both the abscissa (latitude) and ordinate (mean tilt angle). The calculations were carried out by using both the tilt-angle and area weighted tilt-angle data in the whole sphere, northern hemisphere, and southern hemisphere during the whole period and during each individual solar cycle. We find a significant difference (absolute north--south asymmetry) between the slopes of Joy's Law recovered from northern and southern hemispheres' whole period MWOB data of area-weighted tilt angles. Only the slope obtained from the southern hemisphere's MWOB data of a solar cycle is found to be reasonably well anti-correlated to the amplitude of the solar cycle. In the case of area weighted tilt-angle data, a good correlation is found between the absolute north--south asymmetry in the slope of a solar cycle and the amplitude of the solar cycle. The corresponding best-fit linear equations are found to be statistically significant.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Prediction for the amplitude and second maximum of Solar Cycle 25 and a comparison of the predictions based on strength of polar magnetic field and low latitude sunspot area

The maximum of a solar cycle contain two or more peaks, known as Gnevyshev peaks. Studies of this property of solar cycles may help for better understanding the solar dynamo mechanism. We analysed the 13-month smoothed monthly mean Version-2 international sunspot number (SN) during the period 1874-2017 and found that there exists a good correlation between the amplitude (value of the main and highest peak) and the value of the second maximum (value of the second highest peak) during the maximum of a solar cycle.Using this relationship and the earlier predicted value 86 (~92) of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25, here we predict a value ~73 (~79) for the second maximum of Solar Cycle 25. The ratio of the predicted second maximum to the amplitude is found to be 0.85, almost the same as that of Solar Cycle 24.The cosine fits to the values of the peaks that occurred first and second during the maxima of Solar Cycles 12-24 suggests that in Solar Cycle 25 the second maximum would occur before the main maximum, the same as in Solar Cycle 24. However, these fits suggest ~106 and ~119 for the second maximum and the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25, respectively. We analysed the polar-fields data measured in Wilcox Observatory during Solar Cycles 20-24 and obtained a value ~125 for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. This is slightly larger-whereas the value ~86 (~92) predicted from the aforementioned relationship is slightly smaller-than the observed amplitude of Solar Cycle~24. This difference is discussed briefly.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Long-term Variations in Solar Activity: Predictions for Amplitude and North--South Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25

We analysed the sunspot group data from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and studied the cycle-to-cycle variations in the values of 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area in whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of maxima of Sunspot Cycles 12-24, and at the epochs of maxima of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24. The cosine fits to the values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA at the maxima of the sunspot number, WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24, and to the values of the corresponding north-south asymmetry, suggest the existence of a ~132-year periodicity in the activity of northern hemisphere, a 54-66-year periodicity in the activity of southern hemisphere, and a 50-66 year periodicity in the north-south asymmetry in activity at all the aforementioned epochs. By extrapolating the best-fit cosine curves we predicted the amplitudes and the corresponding north-south asymmetry of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles. We find that on average Solar Cycle 25 in sunspot-group area would be to some extent smaller than Solar Cycle 24 in sunspot-group area. However, by inputting the predicted amplitudes of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles in the linear relationship between sunspot-group area and sunspot number we find that the amplitude (130 +or- 12) of Sunspot Cycle 25 would be slightly larger than that of reasonably small Sunspot Cycle 24. Still it confirms that the beginning of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle would take place around Solar Cycle 25. We also find that except at the maximum of NSGA Cycle 25 where the strength of activity in northern hemisphere would be dominant, the strength of activity in the southern hemisphere would be dominant at the maximum epochs of the 25th sunspot, WSGA, and SSGA cycles.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

A Study of Variations in Correlation Between Rotation Residual and Meridional Velocity of Sunspot Groups

We analyzed the combined 142 years sunspot-group data from Greenwich Photoheliograpic Results (GPR) and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) and determined the yearly mean residual rotation rate and the meridional velocity of sunspot groups in different 5-degree latitude intervals. The residual rotation rate is found to be -120 m/s to 80 m/s. In a large number of solar cycles the rotation is to some extent weaker during maxima than that of during minima. There exist alternate bands of equatorward and poleward merdional motions. The equatorward motion is dominant mostly around the maxima of solar cycles with velocity 8-12 m/s, whereas the poleward motion is dominant mostly around the minima but with a relatively weak velocity, only 4-6 m/s. This analysis suggests the existence of equatorward migrating alternate bands of slower and faster than average rotation within the activity belt and no clear equatorward or poleward migrating bands of meridional motions. A statistically significant anticorrelation exists between the meridional motion and residual rotation. The corresponding linear-least-squares best-fit is found to be reasonably good (slope, -0.028 + or - 0.008, is about 3.5 times larger than its standard deviation). The significant negative value of the slope indicates the existence of a strong angular momentum transport toward equator. The slope leads sunspot number (SN) by about 4 and 9 years. The Morlet wavelet spectrum of the slope suggests the existence of approximate 11-year periodicity in the slope almost throughout the data window, but it was very weak during 1920-1940.Overall the results suggest there exits a strong relationship between the slope and amount of activity during a solar cycle. However, no relationship is found between the slope and strength of activity on a long-time scale (longer than 11-year period).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

North-South Asymmetry in Solar Activity and Solar Cycle Prediction, V: Prediction for the North-South Asymmetry in the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017, and the revised Version-2 of ISSN during the period 1874-2017. We determined the amplitude of the Solar Cycles 12-24 and the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun's whole-sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of the maxima of the Solar Cycles 12-24. Using all these we obtained the relations similar to that found in our earlier analyzes -- i.e., the existence of a high correlation between the sum of the areas of sunspot groups in the southern-hemisphere near-equatorial band during a small interval (7-9 months) just after a maximum epoch of a solar cycle and the amplitude of next solar cycle -- separately for the Sun's whole-sphere and northern- and southern-hemispheres. By using these relations we predicted ~701 msh (millionth of solar hemisphere), ~429 msh, and ~366 msh for the values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA, respectively, at the maximum epoch of the Solar Cycle 25. We predicted 86 + or - 18 for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. The 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area highly correlate with that of ISSN. Using this relation and the predicted values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA we have obtained 68 + or -11 for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25, which is slightly lower than the aforementioned predicted value, and 39 + or - 4 and 31 + or - 6 for the values of northern- and southern-hemispheres' sunspot numbers at the maximum epoch of Solar Cycle 25. Overall, our results suggest that the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 would be 25%-40% smaller, and the corresponding north-south asymmetry would be much smaller, than those of Solar Cycle 24.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Solar-Cycle Characteristics in Kodaikanal Sunspot Area: North--South Asymmetry, Phase Distribution and Gnevyshev Gap

The solar activity is asymmetric in both hemispheres in almost all cycles. This asymmetry is observed both in cycle amplitude and period. We have used about 90~years of sunspot-area data from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory to study the North--South asymmetry in sunspot activity. The monthly mean sunspot-area showed the northern hemisphere dominated in Solar Cycles 16, 19, and 20, and the southern hemisphere dominated in Cycles 18, 22, and 23. The 13-months smoothed data indicated that in Cycle 17 and 21, the northern and southern hemisphere showed equal amplitude. Cumulative sunspot area showed that the northern hemisphere dominated in Cycles 18, 19, 20, and 21, with a large difference between the two hemispheres in Cycles 19 and 20. The northern hemisphere activity led by 12, 15, and 2 months in Cycles 20, 21, and 22, respectively. No significant phase difference is found between the two hemispheres in Cycles 16, 17, 18, 19, and 23. The wavelet technique is used to find Rieger-type periodicities in the sunspot cycles. The cross-wavelet analysis of these data sets showed several statistically significant common periodicities like the Rieger-type periodicities and Quasi-biennial oscillations. The Gnevyshev gap was found in both the hemispheric data in Cycles 16, 18, 21, 22, and 23. These results are consistent with the earlier reported characteristics of North--South asymmetry in sunspot-area data. These results suggest that the Kodaikanal Observatory data complement the existing sunspot data from other observatories to study solar activity over long and short periods.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Long-Term Variations in Solar Differential Rotation and Sunspot Activity, II: Differential Rotation Around the Maxima and Minima of Solar Cycles 12-24

We analyzed the sunspot-group daily data that were reported by Greenwich Photoheliogrphic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017. We determined the equatorial rotation rate [A] and the latitude gradient [B] components of the solar differential rotation by fitting the data in each of the 3-year moving time intervals (3-year MTIs) successively shifted by one year during the period 1874-2017 to the standard law of differential rotation. The values of A and B around the years of maxima and minima of Solar Cycles 12-24 are obtained from the 3-year MTIs series of A and B and studied the long-term cycle-to-cycle modulations in these coefficients. Here we have used the epochs of the maxima and minima of Solar Cycles 12-24 that were recently determined from the revised Version-2 international sunspot-number series. We find that there exits a considerably significant secular decreasing-trend in A around the maxima of solar cycles. There exist no secular trends in both A and B around the minima of solar cycles. The secular trend in B around the maxima of solar cycles is also found to be statistically insignificant. We fitted a cosine function to the values of A, and also to those of B, after removing the corresponding linear trends. The cosine-fits suggest that there exist ~54-year (~94-year) and ~82-year (~79-year) periodicities in A (B) around the maxima and minima of solar cycles, respectively. The amplitude of the cosine-profile of A (B) around the minima of solar cycles is about 41% (65%) larger than that of A (B) around the maxima. In addition, the cosine profiles of A and B suggest a large (up to 180 degree) phase difference between the long-term variations of A, and also between those of B, around maxima and minima of solar cycles.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Prime orbits for some smooth flows on $\mathbb{T}^2$

We consider a class of smooth mixing flows $T^{α,γ}$ on $\mathbb{T}^2$ with one degenerated fixed point $x_0\in \mathbb{T}^2$ of power type $γ\in (-1,0)$. We prove that for a $G_δ$ dense set of $α\in \mathbb{T}$, a prime number theorem for $T^{α,γ}$ holds along a full upper density subsequence. In particular it follows that for every $x\in \mathbb{T}^2\setminus\{x_0\}$, the prime orbit $\mathbb{T}^2$. We also show that there exists a class of smooth weakly mixing flows on $\mathbb{T}^2$ for which a prime number theorem holds. In fact we show that there exists a dense set of smooth functions (in the uniform topology) for which prime number theorem holds quantitatively (with an error term $\log^{-A}N$).

math.DS↗

arXiv2020

Long-term Periodicities in North-South Asymmetry of Solar Activity and Alignments of the Giant Planets

The existence of ~12-year and ~51-year periodicities in the north-south asymmetry of solar activity is well known. However, the origin of these as well as the well-known relatively short periodicities in the north-south asymmetry is not yet clear. Here we have analyzed the combined daily data of sunspot groups reported in Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1874-2017 and the data of the orbital positions (ecliptic longitudes) of the giant planets in ten-day intervals during the period 1600-2099. Our analysis suggests that ~12-year and ~51-year periodicities in the north-south asymmetry of solar activity are the manifestations of the differences in the strengths of ~11-year and ~51-year periodicities of activity in the northern- and southern-hemispheres. During the period 1874-2017 the Morlet wavelet power spectra of the north-south asymmetry of sunspot-group area and the mean absolute difference of the orbital positions of the giant planets are found to be similar. Particularly, there is a suggestion that the ~12-year and ~51-year periodicities in the north-south asymmetry of sunspot-group area occurred during approximately the same times as the corresponding periodicities in the mean absolute difference of the orbital positions of the giant planets. Therefore, we suggest that there could be influence of some specific configurations of the giant planets in the origin of the ~12-year and ~50-year periodicities of the north-south asymmetry of solar activity.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

North--South Asymmetry in Solar Activity and Solar Cycle Prediction, IV: Prediction for Lengths of Upcoming Solar Cycles

We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017 and studied North-South asymmetry in the maxima and minima of the Solar Cycles 12-24. We derived the time series of the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected whole-spot areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun's whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA). From these smoothed time series we obtained the values of the maxima and minima, and the corresponding epochs, of the WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24. We find that there exists a 44-66 years periodicity in the North-South asymmetry of the minimum. A long periodicity (130-140 years) may exist in the asymmetry of the maximum. A statistically significant correlation exists between the maximum of SSGA Cycle n and the rise time of WSGA Cycle n + 2. A reasonably significant correlation also exists between the maximum of WSGA Cycle n and the decline time of WSGA Cycle n + 2. These relations suggest that the solar dynamo carries memory over at least three solar cycles. Using these relations we obtained the values 11.7 + or - 0.15 years, 11.2 + or - 0.2 years, and 11.45 + or - 0.3 years for the lengths of WSGA Cycles 24, 25, and 26, respectively, and hence, July 2020, October 2031, and March 2043 for the minimum epochs (start dates) of WSGA Cycles 25, 26, and 27, respectively. We also obtained May 2025 and March 2036 for the maximum epochs of WSGA Cycles 25 and 26, respectively. It seems during the late Maunder minimum sunspot activity was absent around the epochs of the maxima of the NSGA-cycles and the minima of the SSGA-cycles, and some activity was present at the epochs of the maxima of some SSGA-cycles and the minima of some NSGA-cycles.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24 ?

The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1-24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610-2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600-2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30-40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Short-Term Variations in the Equatorial Rotation Rate of Sunspot Groups

We have detected several periodicities in the solar equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups in the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1931-1976, the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) during the period 1977-2014, and the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1974-2014. Our results suggest a ~250-day period in the equatorial rotation rate determined from both the Mt. Wilson Doppler-velocity data and the sunspot-group data during 1986-2007. However, a wavelet analysis reveals that this periodicity appears mostly around 1991 in the velocity data, while it is present in most of the solar cycles covered by the sunspot-group data, mainly near the minimum epochs of the solar cycles. We also found the signature of a period of ~1.4 years period in the velocity data during 1990-1995, and in the equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups mostly around the year 1956. The equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups reveals a strong ~1.6-year periodicity around 1933 and 1955 and a weaker one around 1976, and a strong ~1.8-year periodicity around 1943. Our analysis also suggests periodicities of ~5 years, ~7 years, and ~17 years as well as some other short-term periodicities. However, short-term periodicities are mostly present at the time of solar minima. Hence, short-term periodicities cannot be confirmed because of the larger uncertainty in the data.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

North-south asymmetry in small and large sunspot group activity and violation of even-odd solar cycle rule

According to Gnevyshev-Ohl (G-O) rule an odd-numbered cycle is stronger than its preceding even-numbered cycle. In the modern time the cycle pair (22, 23) violated this rule. By using the combined Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period 1874-2015, and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) of sunspot groups during the period 1974-2015, here we have found that the solar cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule because, besides during cycle 23 a large deficiency of small sunspot groups in both the northern and the southern hemispheres, during cycle 22 a large abundance of small sunspot groups in the southern hemisphere. In the case of large and small sunspot groups the cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, suggesting the north-south asymmetry in solar activity has a significant contribution in the violation of G-O rule. The amplitude of solar cycle 24 is smaller than that of solar cycle 23. However, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) rate in the rising phases of the cycles 23 and 24 are almost same (even slightly large in cycle 24). From both the SOON and the DPD sunspot group data here we have also found that on the average the ratio of the number (counts) of large sunspot groups to the number of small sunspot groups is larger in the rising phase of cycle 24 than that in the corresponding phase of cycle 23. We suggest this could be a potential reason for the aforesaid discrepancy in the CME rates during the rising phases of cycles 23 and 24. These results have significant implication on solar cycle mechanism

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Long-term variations in the north-south asymmetry of solar activity and solar cycle prediction, III: prediction for the amplitude of solar cycle 25

The combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during 1874-2013 are analyzed and studied the relatively long-term variations in the annual sums of the areas of sunspot groups in 0-10 deg, 10-20 deg, and 20-30 deg latitude intervals of the Sun's northern and southern hemispheres. The variations in the corresponding north-south differences are also studied. Long periodicities in these parameters are determined from the fast Fourier transform (FFT), maximum entropy method (MEM), and Morlet wavelet analysis. It is found that in the difference between the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude intervals of northern and southern hemispheres, there exist ~9-year periodicity during the high activity period 1940-1980 and ~12-year periodicity during the low activity period 1890-1939. It is also found that there exists a high correlation (85% from 128 data points) between the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere during a Qth year (middle year of 3-year smoothed time series) and the annual mean International Sunspot Number (Rz) of (Q+9)th year. Implication of these results is discussed in the context of solar activity prediction and predicted 50 + or - 10 for the amplitude of solar cycle 25, which is about 31% lower than the amplitude of cycle 24.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

A Comparison of Solar Cycle Variations in the Equatorial Rotation Rates of the Sun's Subsurface, Surface, Corona, and Sunspot Groups

Using the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot-group data for the period 1985-2010, the variations in the annual mean equatorial-rotation rates of the sunspot groups are determined and compared with the known variations in the solar equatorial-rotation rates determined from the following data: i) the plasma rotation rates at 0.94Rsun, 0.95Rsun,...,1.0Rsun measured by Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) during the period 1995-2010, ii) the data on the soft X-ray corona determined from Yohkoh/SXT full disk images for the years 1992-2001, iii) the data on small bright coronal structures (SBCS) which were traced in Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/EIT images during the period 1998-2006, and iv) the Mount Wilson Doppler-velocity measurements during the period 1986-2007. A large portion (up to approximate 30 deg latitude) of the mean differential-rotation profile of the sunspot groups lies between those of the internal differential-rotation rates at 0.94Rsun and 0.98Rsun.The variation in the yearly mean equatorial-rotation rate of the sunspot groups seems to be lagging that of the equatorial-rotation rate determined from the GONG measurements by one to two years.The amplitude of the latter is very small.The solar-cycle variation in the equatorial-rotation rate of the solar corona closely matches that determined from the sunspot-group data.The variation in the equatorial-rotation rate determined from the Mount Wilson Doppler-velocity data closely resembles the corresponding variation in the equatorial-rotation rate determined from the sunspot-group data that included the values of the abnormal angular motions (> 3 deg per day) of the sunspot groups. Implications of these results are pointed out.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

Long-term temporal variations in the areas of sunspot groups

Recently, we analyzed the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period 1874-2011 and studied variations in the annual numbers of small, large and big sunspot groups. Here that analysis is extended and studied variations in the mean maximum sizes (the mean values of maximum areas) of the aforementioned three classes of sunspot groups and also their combination. It is found that there is no significant correlation between the mean maximum size of any class of sunspot groups and the International Sunspot Number (Rz), probably due to in a given time interval small sunspot groups/sunspots outnumber the large ones. A pattern of an approximate 9-year period cycle is seen in the variations of the mean maximum sizes of the large and the big sunspot groups during a solar cycle. On long-time scales it is found that there exists a strong 130 or more years cycle in the variation of the mean size of the small sunspot groups, whereas there is a hint on the existence of approximate 44-year cycles in the variations of the mean maximum sizes of the large and the big sunspot groups. During the decline phase of cycle 23, there was a scarcity in the very small sunspot groups (maximum area AM < or = 37 msh), which may be related to the slow growth of sunspot groups during this period. During the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 may be due to the presence of a number of small sunspot groups whose AM > 37 msh was larger than that of whose AM < or = 37 msh, the relatively large size coronal holes were present at low-latitudes and the total solar irradiance was very low.

astro-ph.SR↗