Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

J. Javaraiah

Publications and source records attributed to J. Javaraiah.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

The G-O Rule and Waldmeier Effect in the Variations of the Numbers of Large and Small Sunspot Groups

We have analysed the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period of 1874-2011 and determined variations in the annual numbers (counts) of the small, large and big sunspot groups (these classifications are made on the basis of the maximum areas of the sunspot groups). We found that the amplitude of an even-numbered cycle of the number of large groups is smaller than that of its immediately following odd-numbered cycle. This is consistent with the well known Gnevyshev and Ohl rule or G-O rule of solar cycles, generally described by using the Zurich sunspot number (Rz). During cycles 12-21 the G-O rule holds good for the variation in the number of small groups also, but it is violated by cycle pair (22, 23) as in the case of Rz. This behaviour of the variations in the small groups is largely responsible for the anomalous behaviour of Rz in cycle pair (22, 23). It is also found that the amplitude of an odd-numbered cycle of the number of small groups is larger than that of its immediately following even-numbered cycle. This can be called as `reverse G-O rule'. In the case of the number of the big groups, both cycle pairs (12, 13) and (22, 23) violated the G-O rule. In many cycles the positions of the peaks of the small, large, and big groups are different and considerably differ with respect to the corresponding positions of the Rz peaks. In the case of cycle 23, the corresponding cycles of the small and large groups are largely symmetric/less asymmetric (Waldmeier effect is weak/absent) with their maxima taking place two years later than that of Rz. The corresponding cycle of the big groups is more asymmetric (strong Waldmeier effect) with its maximum epoch taking place at the same time as that of Rz.

astro-ph.SR↗

Solar cycle variations in the growth and decay of sunspot groups

We analysed the combined Greenwich (1874-1976) and Solar Optical Observatories Network (1977-2011) data on sunspot groups. The daily rate of change of the area of a spot group is computed using the differences between the epochs of the spot group observation on any two consecutive days during its life-time and between the corrected whole spot areas of the spot group at these epochs. Positive/negative value of the daily rate of change of the area of a spot group represents the growth/decay rate of the spot group. We found that the total amounts of growth and decay of spot groups whose life times > or = 2 days in a given time interval (say one-year) well correlate to the amount of activity in the same interval. We have also found that there exists a reasonably good correlation and an approximate linear relationship between the logarithmic values of the decay rate and area of the spot group at the first day of the corresponding consecutive days, largely suggesting that a large/small area (magnetic flux) decreases in a faster/slower rate. There exists a long-term variation (about 90-year) in the slope of the linear relationship. The solar cycle variation in the decay of spot groups may have a strong relationship with the corresponding variations in solar energetic phenomena such as solar flare activity. The decay of spot groups may also substantially contribute to the coherence relationship between the total solar irradiance and the solar activity variations.

astro-ph.SR↗

Quasi 9 and 30-40 days periodicities in the solar differential rotation

Using the daily Mount Wilson Doppler velocity data during 1986-1994 (solar cycle 22), we studied the short-term variations of the order of a few days to a month time scales in the solar differential rotation coefficients A-bar, B-bar and C-bar. We found that a ~9-day periodicity is statistically highly significant in the variations of C-bar at the maximum of solar cycle 22. A similar periodicity is found in the variations of B-bar during the descending phase of the cycle 22 with significant on > 99.9% confidence level. At this cycle maximum, a 30-40 day periodicity is found to be dominant among the variations in B-bar, and this periodicity is found in A-bar during almost throughout the period 1986-1994.The ~9-day periodicity in the variation of the differential rotation approximately matches with the known quasi 10-day periodicity in the total solar irradiance (TSI) variability. Hence, we speculate that there exists a relationship between the differential rotation and TSI variability. We suggest that the 9-10 day periodicities of the differential rotation and TSI have a relationship with the production and the emergence rates of the large-scale solar magnetic flux.

astro-ph.SR↗

Long-Term Variations in the Growth and Decay Rates of Sunspot Groups

Using the combined Greenwich (1874-1976) and Solar Optical Observatories Network (1977-2009) data on sunspot groups, we study the long-term variations in the mean daily rates of growth and decay of sunspot groups. We find that the minimum and the maximum values of the annually averaged daily mean growth rates are ~52% per day and ~183% per day, respectively, whereas the corresponding values of the annually averaged daily mean decay rates are ~21% per day and ~44% per day, respectively. The average value (over the period 1874-2009) of the growth rate is about 70% more than that of the decay rate. The growth and the decay rates vary by about 35% and 13%, respectively, on a 60-year time-scale. From the beginning of Cycle 23 the growth rate is substantially decreased and near the end (2007-2008) the growth rate is lowest in the past about 100 years.

astro-ph.SR↗

Long-term variations in the mean meridional motion of the sunspot groups

We find that the mean meridional motion of the spot groups varies considerably on a time scale of about 5-20 years. The maximum amplitude of the variation is about 10-15 m/s in both the Sun's northern and the southern hemispheres. Variation in the mean motion is considerably different during different solar cycles. At the maximum epoch (year 2000) of the current cycle~23, the mean motion is relatively strong in the past 100 years and northbound in both the northern and the southern hemispheres. The power spectral analyses suggest the existence of approximate 3.2- and 4.3-year periodicities in the mean motion of the spot groups in the southern hemisphere, whereas a 13-16 year periodicity is found to exist in the mean motion of the northern hemisphere. There is strong evidence for a latitude-time dependency in the periodicities of the mean motion. The north-south difference in the mean motion also varies by about 10 m/s. During the recent cycles, the north-south difference is negligibly small. Approximate 12- and 22-year periodicities are found to exist in the north-south difference.

astro-ph.SR↗

Search for Short-Term Periodicities in the Sun's Surface Rotation: A Revisit

The power spectral analyses of the Sun's surface equatorial rotation rate determined from the Mt. Wilson daily Doppler velocity measurements during the period 3 December 1985 to 5 March 2007 suggests the existence of 7.6 year, 2.8 year, 1.47 year, 245 day, 182 day and 158 day periodicities in the surface equatorial rotation rate during the period before 1996. However, there is no variation of any kind in the more accurately measured data during the period after 1995. That is, the aforementioned periodicities in the data during the period before the year 1996 may be artifacts of the uncertainties of those data due to the frequent changes in the instrumentation of the Mt. Wilson spectrograph. On the other hand, the temporal behavior of most of the activity phenomena during cycles 22 (1986-1996) and 23 (after 1997) is considerably different. Therefore, the presence of the aforementioned short-term periodicities during the last cycle and absence of them in the current cycle may, in principle, be real temporal behavior of the solar rotation during these cycles.

astro-ph.SR↗

Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or - 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7 for the amplitude of cycle 24.

astro-ph.SR↗

North-south asymmetry in solar activity: predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle

Using Greenwich and SOON sunspot group data during the period 1874 -- 2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in $0^\circ$ -- $10^\circ$ latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval, minus 1.35 year to plus 2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum--and in the same latitude interval of the southern hemisphere but plus 1.0 year to plus 1.75 year from the time of the maximum--of a sunspot cycle are well correlating with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of its immediate following cycle. Using this relationship it is possible to predict the amplitude of a sunspot cycle by about 9 -- 13 years in advance. We predicted $74 \pm 10$ for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle~24. Variations in solar meridional flows during solar cycles and 9 -- 16 year variations in solar equatorial rotation may be responsible for the aforementioned relationship.

astro-ph↗

Solar differential rotation and properties of magnetic clouds

The most geoeffective solar drivers are magnetic clouds - a subclass of coronal mass ejections (CME's) distinguished by the smooth rotation of the magnetic field inside the structure. The portion of CME's that are magnetic clouds is maximum at sunspot minimum and mimimum at sunspot maximum. This portion is determined by the amount of helicity carried away by CME's which in turn depends on the amount of helicity transferred from the solar interior to the surface, and on the surface differential rotation. The latter can increase or reduce, or even reverse the twist of emerging magnetic flux tubes, thus increasing or reducing the helicity in the corona, or leading to the violation of the hemispheric helicity rule, respectively. We investigate the CME's associated with the major geomagnetic storms in the last solar cycle whose solar sources have been identified, and find that in 10 out of 12 cases of violation of the hemispheric helicity rule or of highly geoeffective CME's with no magnetic field rotation, they originate from regions with "anti-solar" type of surface differential rotation.

astro-ph↗