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James Woodcock

Publications and source records attributed to James Woodcock.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

Vehicle detection from GSV imagery: Predicting travel behaviour for cycling and motorcycling using Computer Vision

Transportation influence health by shaping exposure to physical activity, air pollution and injury risk. Comparative data on cycling and motorcycling behaviours is scarce, particularly at a global scale. Street view imagery, such as Google Street View (GSV), combined with computer vision, is a valuable resource for efficiently capturing travel behaviour data. This study demonstrates a novel approach using deep learning on street view images to estimate cycling and motorcycling levels across diverse cities worldwide. We utilized data from 185 global cities. The data on mode shares of cycling and motorcycling estimated using travel surveys or censuses. We used GSV images to detect cycles and motorcycles in sampled locations, using 8000 images per city. The YOLOv4 model, fine-tuned using images from six cities, achieved a mean average precision of 89% for detecting cycles and motorcycles. A global prediction model was developed using beta regression with city-level mode shares as outcome, with log transformed explanatory variables of counts of GSV-detected images with cycles and motorcycles, while controlling for population density. We found strong correlations between GSV motorcycle counts and motorcycle mode share (0.78) and moderate correlations between GSV cycle counts and cycling mode share (0.51). Beta regression models predicted mode shares with $R^2$ values of 0.614 for cycling and 0.612 for motorcycling, achieving median absolute errors (MDAE) of 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively. Scatterplots demonstrated consistent prediction accuracy, though cities like Utrecht and Cali were outliers. The model was applied to 60 cities globally for which we didn't have recent mode share data. We provided estimates for some cities in the Middle East, Latin America and East Asia. With computer vision, GSV images capture travel modes and activity, providing insights alongside traditional data sources.

cs.CV

Bayesian multistate modelling of incomplete chronic disease burden data

A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple diseases by age and gender. Generally, direct data on both incidence and case fatality are not available in every disease and setting. For example, we may know population mortality and prevalence rather than case fatality and incidence. This paper presents Bayesian continuous-time multistate models for estimating transition rates between disease states based on incomplete data. This builds on previous methods by using a formal statistical model with transparent data-generating assumptions, while providing accessible software as an R package. Rates for people of different ages and areas can be related flexibly through splines or hierarchical models. Previous methods are also extended to allow age-specific trends through calendar time. The model is used to estimate case fatality for multiple diseases in the city regions of England, based on incidence, prevalence and mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease study. The estimates can be used to inform health impact models relating to those diseases and areas. Different assumptions about rates are compared, and we check the influence of different data sources.

stat.AP

Euclidean distance degree and mixed volume

We initiate a study of the Euclidean Distance Degree in the context of sparse polynomials. Specifically, we consider a hypersurface f=0 defined by a polynomial f that is general given its support, such that the support contains the origin. We show that the Euclidean Distance Degree of f=0 equals the mixed volume of the Newton polytopes of the associated Lagrange multiplier equations. We discuss the implication of our result for computational complexity and give a formula for the Euclidean distance degree when the Newton polytope is a rectangular parallelepiped.

math.AG

A guide to Value of Information methods for prioritising research in health impact modelling

Health impact simulation models are used to predict how a proposed intervention or scenario will affect public health outcomes, based on available data and knowledge of the process. The outputs of these models are uncertain due to uncertainty in the structure and inputs to the model. In order to assess the extent of uncertainty in the outcome we must quantify all potentially relevant uncertainties. Then to reduce uncertainty we should obtain and analyse new data, but it may be unclear which parts of the model would benefit from such extra research. This paper presents methods for uncertainty quantification and research prioritisation in health impact models based on Value of Information (VoI) analysis. Specifically, we 1. discuss statistical methods for quantifying uncertainty in this type of model, given the typical kinds of data that are available, which are often weaker than the ideal data that are desired; 2. show how the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) can be calculated to compare how uncertainty in each model parameter influences uncertainty in the output; 3. show how research time can be prioritised efficiently, in the light of which components contribute most to outcome uncertainty. The same methods can be used whether the purpose of the model is to estimate quantities of interest to a policy maker, or to explicitly decide between policies. We demonstrate how these methods might be used in a model of the impact of air pollution on health outcomes.

stat.ME

Estimating city-level travel patterns using street imagery: a case study of using Google Street View in Britain

Street imagery is a promising big data source providing current and historical images in more than 100 countries. Previous studies used this data to audit built environment features. Here we explore a novel application, using Google Street View (GSV) to predict travel patterns at the city level. We sampled 34 cities in Great Britain. In each city, we accessed GSV images from 1000 random locations from years overlapping with the 2011 Census and the 2011-2013 Active People Survey (APS). We manually annotated images into seven categories of road users. We developed regression models with the counts of images of road users as predictors. Outcomes included Census-reported commute shares of four modes (walking plus public transport, cycling, motorcycle, and car), and APS-reported past-month participation in walking and cycling. In bivariate analyses, we found high correlations between GSV counts of cyclists (GSV-cyclists) and cycle commute mode share (r=0.92) and past-month cycling (r=0.90). Likewise, GSV-pedestrians was moderately correlated with past-month walking for transport (r=0.46), GSV-motorcycles was moderately correlated with commute share of motorcycles (r=0.44), and GSV-buses was highly correlated with commute share of walking plus public transport (r=0.81). GSV-car was not correlated with car commute mode share (r=-0.12). However, in multivariable regression models, all mode shares were predicted well. Cross-validation analyses showed good prediction performance for all the outcomes except past-month walking. Street imagery is a promising new big data source to predict urban mobility patterns. Further testing across multiple settings is warranted both for cross-sectional and longitudinal assessments.

cs.CY

Object-Based Audio Rendering

Apparatus and methods are disclosed for performing object-based audio rendering on a plurality of audio objects which define a sound scene, each audio object comprising at least one audio signal and associated metadata. The apparatus comprises: a plurality of renderers each capable of rendering one or more of the audio objects to output rendered audio data; and object adapting means for adapting one or more of the plurality of audio objects for a current reproduction scenario, the object adapting means being configured to send the adapted one or more audio objects to one or more of the plurality of renderers.

cs.SD

The Propensity to Cycle Tool: An open source online system for sustainable transport planning

Getting people cycling is an increasingly common objective in transport planning institutions worldwide. A growing evidence base indicates that high quality infrastructure can boost local cycling rates. Yet for infrastructure and other cycling measures to be effective, it is important to intervene in the right places, such as along 'desire lines' of high latent demand. This creates the need for tools and methods to help answer the question 'where to build?'. Following a brief review of the policy and research context related to this question, this paper describes the design, features and potential applications of such a tool. The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) is an online, interactive planning support system which was initially developed to explore and map cycling potential across England (see www.pct.bike). Based on origin-destination data, it models and visualises cycling levels at area, desire line, route and route network levels, for current levels of cycling, and for scenario-based 'cycling futures'. Four scenarios are presented, including 'Go Dutch' and 'Ebikes', which explore what would happen if English people cycled as much as Dutch people and the potential impact of electric cycles on cycling uptake. The cost effectiveness of investment depends not only on the number of additional trips cycled, but on wider impacts such as health and carbon benefits. The PCT reports these at area, desire line, and route level for each scenario. The PCT is open source, facilitating the creation of additional scenarios and its deployment in new contexts. We conclude that the PCT illustrates the potential of online tools to inform transport decisions and raises the wider issue of how models should be used in transport planning.

cs.CY