arXiv subjects

Jan Conrad

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Conrad.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Statistical Issues in Astrophysical Searches for Particle Dark Matter

In this review statistical issues appearing in astrophysical searches for particle dark matter, i.e. indirect detection (dark matter annihilating into standard model particles) or direct detection (dark matter particles scattering in deep underground detectors) are discussed. One particular aspect of these searches is the presence of very large uncertainties in nuisance parameters (astrophysical factors) that are degenerate with parameters of interest (mass and annihilation/decay cross sections for the particles). The likelihood approach has become the most powerful tool, offering at least one well motivated method for incorporation of nuisance parameters and increasing the sensitivity of experiments by allowing a combination of targets superior to the more traditional data stacking. Other statistical challenges appearing in astrophysical searches are to large extent similar to any new physics search, for example at colliders, a prime example being the calculation of trial factors. Frequentist methods prevail for hypothesis testing and interval estimation, Bayesian methods are used for assessment of nuisance parameters and parameter estimation in complex parameter spaces. The basic statistical concepts will be exposed, illustrated with concrete examples from experimental searches and caveats will be pointed out.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2014

On detecting oscillations of gamma rays into axion-like particles in turbulent and coherent magnetic fields

Background radiation fields pervade the Universe, and above a certain energy any $γ$-ray flux emitted by an extragalactic source should be attenuated due to $e^+e^-$ pair production. The opacity could be alleviated if photons oscillated into hypothetical axion-like particles (ALPs) in ambient magnetic fields, leading to a $γ$-ray excess especially at high optical depths that could be detected with imaging air Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs). Here, we introduce a method to search for such a signal in $γ$-ray data and to estimate sensitivities for future observations. Different magnetic fields close to the $γ$-ray source are taken into account in which photons can convert into ALPs that then propagate unimpeded over cosmological distances until they re-convert in the magnetic field of the Milky Way. Specifically, we consider the coherent field at parsec scales in a blazar jet as well as the turbulent field inside a galaxy cluster. For the latter, we explicitly derive the transversal components of a magnetic field with gaussian turbulence which are responsible for the photon-ALP mixing. To illustrate the method, we apply it to a mock IACT array with characteristics similar to the Cherenkov Telescope Array and investigate the dependence of the sensitivity to detect a $γ$-ray excess on the magnetic-field parameters.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2014

The sensitivity of Cherenkov telescopes to dark matter and astrophysical anisotropies in the diffuse gamma-ray background

In this article, the capability of present (H.E.S.S., MAGIC, VERITAS) and planned (CTA) ground-based Cherenkov telescope systems for detecting angular anisotropies in the diffuse gamma-ray background is investigated. Following up on a study of the impact of instrumental characteristics (effective area, field of view, angular resolution, and background rejection efficiency), the first part examines the influence of different observational strategies, i.e. whether a single deep observation or a splitting over multiple shallow fields is preferred. In the second part, the sensitivity to anisotropies generated by self-annihilating dark matter is studied for different common dark matter models. We find that a relative contribution of ~10% from dark matter annihilation to the extra-galactic diffuse gamma-ray background can be detected with planned configurations of CTA. In terms of the thermally-averaged self-annihilation cross section, the sensitivity of CTA corresponds to values below the thermal freeze-out expectation = 3 x 10-26 cm3s-1 for dark matter particles lighter than ~200 GeV. We stress the importance of constraining anisotropies from unresolved astrophysical sources with currently operating instruments already, as a novel and complementary method for investigating the properties of TeV sources.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2012

Fermi-LAT measurement of the diffuse gamma-ray emission and constraints on the Galactic Dark Matter signal

We study diffuse gamma-ray emission at intermediate Galactic latitudes measured by the Fermi Large Area Telescope with the aim of searching for a signal from dark matter annihilation or decay. In the absence of a robust dark matter signal, we set conservative dark matter limits requiring that the dark matter signal does not exceed the observed diffuse gamma-ray emission. A second set of more stringent limits is derived based on modeling the foreground astrophysical diffuse emission. Uncertainties in the height of the diffusive cosmic-ray halo, the distribution of the cosmic-ray sources in the Galaxy, the cosmic-ray electron index of the injection spectrum and the column density of the interstellar gas are taken into account using a profile likelihood formalism, while the parameters governing the cosmic-ray propagation have been derived from fits to local cosmic-ray data. The resulting limits impact the range of particle masses over which dark matter thermal production in the early Universe is possible, and challenge the interpretation of the PAMELA/Fermi-LAT cosmic ray anomalies as annihilation of dark matter.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2012

Handling Systematic Uncertainties and Combined Source Analyses for Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes

In response to an increasing availability of statistically rich observational data sets, the performance and applicability of traditional Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope analyses in the regime of systematically dominated measurement uncertainties is examined. In particular, the effect of systematic uncertainties affecting the relative normalisation of fiducial ON and OFF-source sampling regions - often denoted as α - is investigated using combined source analysis as a representative example case. The traditional summation of accumulated ON and OFF-source event counts is found to perform sub-optimally in the studied contexts and requires careful calibration to correct for unexpected and potentially misleading statistical behaviour. More specifically, failure to recognise and correct for erroneous estimates of α is found to produce substantial overestimates of the combined population significance which worsen with increasing target multiplicity. An alternative joint likelihood technique is introduced, which is designed to treat systematic uncertainties in a uniform and statistically robust manner. This alternate method is shown to yield dramatically enhanced performance and reliability with respect to the more traditional approach.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2012

Searches for Particle Dark Matter with gamma-rays

In this contribution I review the present status and discuss some prospects for indirect detection of dark matter with gamma-rays. Thanks to the Fermi Large Area Telescope, searches in gamma-rays have reached sensitivities that allow to probe the most interesting parameter space of the weakly interacting massive particles (WIMP) paradigm. This gain in sensitivity is naturally accompanied by a number of detection claims or indications, the most recent being the claim of a line feature at a dark matter particle mass of $\sim$ 130 GeV at the Galactic Centre, a claim which requires confirmation from the Fermi-LAT collaboration and other experiments, for example HESS II or the planned Gamma-400 satellite. Predictions for the next generation air Cherenkov telescope, Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), together with forecasts on future Fermi-LAT constraints arrive at the exciting possibility that the cosmological benchmark cross-section could be probed from masses of a few GeV to a few TeV. Consequently, non-detection would pose a challenge to the WIMP paradigm, but the reached sensitivities also imply that --optimistically-- a detection is in the cards.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2012

Investigating Gamma-Ray Lines from Dark Matter with Future Observatories

We study the prospects for studying line features in gamma-ray spectra with upcoming gamma-ray experiments, such as HESS-II, the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), and the GAMMA-400 satellite. As an example we use the narrow feature at 130 GeV seen in public data from the Fermi-LAT satellite. We found that all three experiments should be able to confidently confirm or rule out the presence of this 130 GeV feature. If it is real, it should be confirmed with a confidence level higher than 5 sigma. Assuming it to be a spectral signature of dark matter origin, GAMMA-400, thanks to a projected energy resolution of about 1.5% at 100 GeV, should also be able to resolve both the γγ-line and a corresponding Zγ- or Hγ-feature, if the corresponding branching ratio is comparable to that into two photons. It will also allow to distinguish between a gamma-ray line and the similar feature resulting from internal bremsstrahlung photons.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2011

A Combined Analysis of Clusters of Galaxies - Gamma Ray Emission from Cosmic Rays and Dark Matter

Multiwavelength observations suggest that clusters are reservoirs of vast amounts relativistic electrons and positrons that are either injected into and accelerated directly in the intra-cluster medium, or produced as secondary pairs by cosmic ray ions scattering on ambient protons. In these possible scenarios gamma rays are produced either through electrons upscattering low-energy photons or by decay of neutral pions produced by hadronic interactions. In addition, the high mass-to-light ratios in clusters in combination with considerable Dark Matter (DM) overdensities makes them interesting targets for indirect DM searches with gamma rays. The resulting signals are different from known point sources or from diffuse emission and could possibly be detected with the Fermi-LAT. Both WIMP annihilation/decay spectra and cosmic ray induced emission are determined by universal parameters, which make a combined statistical likelihood analysis feasible. We present initial results of this analysis leading to limits on the DM annihilation cross section or decay time and on the hadron injection efficiency.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2011

Implications for constrained supersymmetry of combined H.E.S.S. observations of dwarf galaxies, the Galactic halo and the Galactic Centre

In order to place limits on dark matter (DM) properties using $γ$-ray observations, previous analyses have often assumed a very simple parametrisation of the $γ$-ray annihilation yield; typically, it has been assumed that annihilation proceeds through a single channel only. In realistic DM models, annihilation may occur into many different final states, making this quite a rough ansatz. With additional processes like virtual internal bremsstrahlung and final state radiation, this ansatz becomes even more incorrect, and the need for scans of explicit model parameter spaces becomes clear. Here we present scans of the parameter space of the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM), considering $γ$-ray spectra from three dwarf galaxies, the Galactic Centre region and the broader Galactic halo, as obtained with the High-Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). We present a series of likelihood scans combining the H.E.S.S. data with other experimental results. We show that observations of the Sagittarius, Carina and Sculptor dwarf galaxies disfavour the coannihilation region of the CMSSM and models with large annihilation cross-sections. This is true even under reasonable assumptions about the DM density profiles, and constitutes the strongest constraint to date on coannihilation models within the CMSSM. The Galactic halo has a similar, but weaker, effect. The Galactic Centre search is complicated by a strong (unknown) $γ$-ray source, and we see no effect on the CMSSM parameter space when assuming a realistic Galactic Centre DM density profile.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2011

Statistical coverage for supersymmetric parameter estimation: a case study with direct detection of dark matter

Models of weak-scale supersymmetry offer viable dark matter (DM) candidates. Their parameter spaces are however rather large and complex, such that pinning down the actual parameter values from experimental data can depend strongly on the employed statistical framework and scanning algorithm. In frequentist parameter estimation, a central requirement for properly constructed confidence intervals is that they cover true parameter values, preferably at exactly the stated confidence level when experiments are repeated infinitely many times. Since most widely-used scanning techniques are optimised for Bayesian statistics, one needs to assess their abilities in providing correct confidence intervals in terms of the statistical coverage. Here we investigate this for the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) when only constrained by data from direct searches for dark matter. We construct confidence intervals from one-dimensional profile likelihoods and study the coverage by generating several pseudo-experiments for a few benchmark sets of pseudo-true parameters. We use nested sampling to scan the parameter space and evaluate the coverage for the benchmarks when either flat or logarithmic priors are imposed on gaugino and scalar mass parameters. The sampling algorithm has been used in the configuration usually adopted for exploration of the Bayesian posterior. We observe both under- and over-coverage, which in some cases vary quite dramatically when benchmarks or priors are modified. We show how most of the variation can be explained as the impact of explicit priors as well as sampling effects, where the latter are indirectly imposed by physicality conditions. For comparison, we also evaluate the coverage for Bayesian credible intervals, and observe significant under-coverage in those cases.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2011

How well will ton-scale dark matter direct detection experiments constrain minimal supersymmetry?

Weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) are amongst the most interesting dark matter (DM) candidates. Many DM candidates naturally arise in theories beyond the standard model (SM) of particle physics, like weak-scale supersymmetry (SUSY). Experiments aim to detect WIMPs by scattering, annihilation or direct production, and thereby determine the underlying theory to which they belong, along with its parameters. Here we examine the prospects for further constraining the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) with future ton-scale direct detection experiments. We consider ton-scale extrapolations of three current experiments: CDMS, XENON and COUPP, with 1000 kg-years of raw exposure each. We assume energy resolutions, energy ranges and efficiencies similar to the current versions of the experiments, and include backgrounds at target levels. Our analysis is based on full likelihood constructions for the experiments. We also take into account present uncertainties on hadronic matrix elements for neutralino-quark couplings, and on halo model parameters. We generate synthetic data based on four benchmark points and scan over the CMSSM parameter space using nested sampling. We construct both Bayesian posterior PDFs and frequentist profile likelihoods for the model parameters, as well as the mass and various cross-sections of the lightest neutralino. Future ton-scale experiments will help substantially in constraining supersymmetry, especially when results of experiments primarily targeting spin-dependent nuclear scattering are combined with those directed more toward spin-independent interactions.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2011

Indirect detection of Dark matter with gamma-rays - status and perspectives

In my contribution I review the status of indirect detection of dark matter with gamma-rays, including results of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope as well as Imaging Air Cherenkov Telescopes (IACT), like H.E.S.S., MAGIC and VERITAS. I will also briefly address the perspectives for the next generation IACT, the Cherenkov Telescope Array

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2010

Constraints on the Galactic Halo Dark Matter from Fermi-LAT Diffuse Measurements

The diffuse gamma ray emission from astrophysical backgrounds in our Galaxy and the signal due to the annihilation or decay of Dark Matter (DM) in the Galactic Halo are expected to have a substantially different morphology and spectral signatures. In order to exploit this feature we perform a full sky and spectral binned likelihood fit of both components, using data collected during the first 21 months of operation of the Fermi-LAT observatory. Preliminary constraints are presented on the DM annihilation cross section and decaying rate for various masses and annihilation/decay modes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2010

A Profile Likelihood Analysis of the Constrained MSSM with Genetic Algorithms

The Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) is one of the simplest and most widely-studied supersymmetric extensions to the standard model of particle physics. Nevertheless, current data do not sufficiently constrain the model parameters in a way completely independent of priors, statistical measures and scanning techniques. We present a new technique for scanning supersymmetric parameter spaces, optimised for frequentist profile likelihood analyses and based on Genetic Algorithms. We apply this technique to the CMSSM, taking into account existing collider and cosmological data in our global fit. We compare our method to the MultiNest algorithm, an efficient Bayesian technique, paying particular attention to the best-fit points and implications for particle masses at the LHC and dark matter searches. Our global best-fit point lies in the focus point region. We find many high-likelihood points in both the stau co-annihilation and focus point regions, including a previously neglected section of the co-annihilation region at large m_0. We show that there are many high-likelihood points in the CMSSM parameter space commonly missed by existing scanning techniques, especially at high masses. This has a significant influence on the derived confidence regions for parameters and observables, and can dramatically change the entire statistical inference of such scans.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2009

Direct Constraints on Minimal Supersymmetry from Fermi-LAT Observations of the Dwarf Galaxy Segue 1

The dwarf galaxy Segue 1 is one of the most promising targets for the indirect detection of dark matter. Here we examine what constraints 9 months of Fermi-LAT gamma-ray observations of Segue 1 place upon the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM), with the lightest neutralino as the dark matter particle. We use nested sampling to explore the CMSSM parameter space, simultaneously fitting other relevant constraints from accelerator bounds, the relic density, electroweak precision observables, the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon and B-physics. We include spectral and spatial fits to the Fermi observations, a full treatment of the instrumental response and its related uncertainty, and detailed background models. We also perform an extrapolation to 5 years of observations, assuming no signal is observed from Segue 1 in that time. Results marginally disfavour models with low neutralino masses and high annihilation cross-sections. Virtually all of these models are however already disfavoured by existing experimental or relic density constraints.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2009

Limits and Confidence Intervals in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters

We study the frequentist properties of confidence intervals computed by the method known to statisticians as the Profile Likelihood. It is seen that the coverage of these intervals is surprisingly good over a wide range of possible parameter values for important classes of problems, in particular whenever there are additional nuisance parameters with statistical or systematic errors. Programs are available for calculating these intervals.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2008

Detecting Dark Matter annihilation lines with Fermi

Dark matter constitutes one of the most intriguing but so far unresolved issues in physics today. In many extensions of the Standard Model the existence of a stable Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) is predicted. The WIMP is an excellent dark matter particle candidate and one of the most interesting scenarios include an annihilation of two WIMPs into two gamma-rays. If the WIMPs are assumed to be non-relativistic, the resulting photons will both have an energy equal to the mass of the WIMP and manifest themselves as a monochromatic spectral line in the energy spectrum. This type of signal would represent a "smoking gun" for dark matter, since no other known astrophysical process should be able to produce it. In these proceedings we give an overview of the different approaches to a search for dark matter lines that the Fermi-LAT collaboration is pursuing and the various challenges involved.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

On sensitivity calculations for neutrino oscillation experiments

Calculations of sensitivities of future experiments are a necessary ingredient in experimental high energy physics. Especially in the context of measurements of the neutrino oscillation parameters extensive studies are performed to arrive at the optimal configuration. In this note we clarify the definition of sensitivity as often applied in these studies. In addition we examine two of the most common methods to calculate sensitivity from a statistical perspective using a toy model. The importance of inclusion of uncertainties in nuisance parameters for the interpretation of sensitivity calculations is pointed out.

hep-ph↗