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Jan Obloj

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Obloj.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Wasserstein distributional adversarial training for deep neural networks

Design of adversarial attacks for deep neural networks, as well as methods of adversarial training against them, are subject of intense research. In this paper, we propose methods to train against distributional attack threats, extending the TRADES method used for pointwise attacks. Our approach leverages recent contributions and relies on sensitivity analysis for Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization problems. We introduce an efficient fine-tuning method which can be deployed on a previously trained model. We test our methods on a range of pre-trained models on RobustBench. These experimental results demonstrate the additional training enhances Wasserstein distributional robustness, while maintaining original levels of pointwise robustness, even for already very successful networks. The improvements are less marked for models pre-trained using huge synthetic datasets of 20-100M images. However, remarkably, sometimes our methods are still able to improve their performance even when trained using only the original training dataset (50k images).

cs.LG

Sensitivity of causal distributionally robust optimization

We study the causal distributionally robust optimization (DRO) in both discrete- and continuous- time settings. The framework captures model uncertainty, with potential models penalized in function of their adapted Wasserstein distance to a given reference model. Strength of the penalty is controlled using a real-valued parameter which, in the special case of an indicator penalty, is simply the radius of the uncertainty ball. Our main results derive the first-order sensitivity of the value of causal DRO with respect to the penalization parameter, i.e., we compute the sensitivity to model uncertainty. Moreover, we investigate the case where a martingale constraint is imposed on the underlying model, as is the case for pricing measures in mathematical finance. We introduce different scaling regimes, which allow us to obtain the continuous-time sensitivities as nontrivial limits of their discrete-time counterparts. We illustrate our results with examples. The sensitivities are naturally expressed using optional projections of Malliavin derivatives. To establish our results we obtain several novel results which are of independent interest. In particular, we introduce pathwise Malliavin derivatives and show these extend the classical notion. We also establish a novel stochastic Fubini theorem.

math.PR

Geometric Martingale Benamou-Brenier transport and geometric Bass martingales

We introduce and study geometric Bass martingales. Bass martingales were introduced in \cite{Ba83} and studied recently in a series of works, including \cite{BaBeHuKa20,BaBeScTs23}, where they appear as solutions to the martingale version of the Benamou-Brenier optimal transport formulation. These arithmetic, as well as our novel geometric, Bass martingales are continuous martingale on $[0,1]$ with prescribed initial and terminal distributions. An arithmetic Bass martingale is the one closest to Brownian motion: its quadratic variation is as close as possible to being linear in the averaged $L^2$ sense. Its geometric counterpart we develop here, is the one closest to a geometric Brownian motion: the quadratic variation of its logarithm is as close as possible to being linear. By analogy between Bachelier and Black-Scholes models in mathematical finance, the newly obtained geometric Bass martingales} have the potential to be of more practical importance in a number of applications. Our main contribution is to exhibit an explicit bijection between geometric Bass martingales and their arithmetic counterparts. This allows us, in particular, to translate fine properties of the latter into the new geometric setting. We obtain an explicit representation for a geometric Bass martingale for given initial and terminal marginals, we characterise it as a solution to an SDE, and we show that geometric Brownian motion is the only process which is both an arithmetic and a geometric Bass martingale. Finally, we deduce a dual formulation for our geometric martingale Benamou-Brenier problem. Our main proof is probabilistic in nature and uses a suitable change of measure, but we also provide PDE arguments relying on the dual formulation of the problem, which offer a rigorous proof under suitable regularity assumptions.

math.PR

The Martingale Sinkhorn Algorithm

We develop a numerical method for the martingale analogue of the Benamou--Brenier optimal transport problem, which seeks a martingale interpolating two prescribed marginals which is closest to the Brownian motion. Recent contributions have established existence of the optimal martingale under finite second moment assumptions on the marginals, but numerical methods exist only in the one-dimensional setting. We introduce an iterative scheme, a martingale analogue of the celebrated Sinkhorn algorithm, and prove that it yields a Bass potential in arbitrary dimension under minimal assumptions. In particular, we show that this holds when the marginals have finite moments of order $p > 1$, thereby extending the known theory beyond the finite-second-moment regime. The proof relies on a strict descent property for the dual value of the martingale Benamou--Brenier problem. While the descent property admits a direct verification in the case of compactly supported marginals, obtaining uniform control on the iterates without assuming compact support is substantially more delicate and constitutes the main technical challenge.

q-fin.CP

Joint Calibration of Local Volatility Models with Stochastic Interest Rates using Semimartingale Optimal Transport

We develop and implement a non-parametric method for joint exact calibration of a local volatility model and a correlated stochastic short rate model using semimartingale optimal transport. The method relies on the duality results established in Joseph, Loeper, and Obloj, 2023 and jointly calibrates the whole equity-rate dynamics. It uses an iterative approach which starts with a parametric model and tries to stay close to it, until a perfect calibration is obtained. We demonstrate the performance of our approach on market data using European SPX options and European cap interest rate options. Finally, we compare the joint calibration approach with the sequential calibration, in which the short rate model is calibrated first and frozen.

q-fin.MF

Wasserstein distributional robustness of neural networks

Deep neural networks are known to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks (AA). For an image recognition task, this means that a small perturbation of the original can result in the image being misclassified. Design of such attacks as well as methods of adversarial training against them are subject of intense research. We re-cast the problem using techniques of Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO) and obtain novel contributions leveraging recent insights from DRO sensitivity analysis. We consider a set of distributional threat models. Unlike the traditional pointwise attacks, which assume a uniform bound on perturbation of each input data point, distributional threat models allow attackers to perturb inputs in a non-uniform way. We link these more general attacks with questions of out-of-sample performance and Knightian uncertainty. To evaluate the distributional robustness of neural networks, we propose a first-order AA algorithm and its multi-step version. Our attack algorithms include Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM) and Projected Gradient Descent (PGD) as special cases. Furthermore, we provide a new asymptotic estimate of the adversarial accuracy against distributional threat models. The bound is fast to compute and first-order accurate, offering new insights even for the pointwise AA. It also naturally yields out-of-sample performance guarantees. We conduct numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10 dataset using DNNs on RobustBench to illustrate our theoretical results. Our code is available at https://github.com/JanObloj/W-DRO-Adversarial-Methods.

cs.LG

Calibration of Local Volatility Models with Stochastic Interest Rates using Optimal Transport

We develop a non-parametric, semimartingale optimal transport, calibration methodology for local volatility models with stochastic interest rate. The method finds a fully calibrated model which is the closest, in a way that can be defined by a general cost function, to a given reference model. We establish a general duality result which allows to solve the problem by optimising over solutions to a second order fully non-linear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Our methodology is analogous to Guo, Loeper, and Wang, 2022 and Guo, Loeper, Obloj, et al., 2022a but features a novel element of solving for discounted densities, or sub-probability measures. As an example, we apply the method to a sequential calibration problem, where a Vasicek model is already given for the interest rates and we seek to calibrate a stock price's local volatility model with volatility coefficient depending on time, the underlying and the short rate process, and the two processes driven by possibly correlated Brownian motions. The equity model is calibrated to any number of European options prices.

q-fin.MF

Optimal transport for model calibration

We provide a survey of recent results on model calibration by Optimal Transport. We present the general framework and then discuss the calibration of local, and local-stochastic, volatility models to European options, the joint VIX/SPX calibration problem as well as calibration to some path-dependent options. We explain the numerical algorithms and present examples both on synthetic and market data.

q-fin.MF

Distributionally robust portfolio maximisation and marginal utility pricing in one period financial markets

We consider the optimal investment and marginal utility pricing problem of a risk averse agent and quantify their exposure to a small amount of model uncertainty. Specifically, we compute explicitly the first-order sensitivity of their value function, optimal investment policy and marginal option prices to model uncertainty. The latter is understood as replacing a baseline model $\mathbb{P}$ with an adverse choice from a small Wasserstein ball around $\mathbb{P}$ in the space of probability measures. Our sensitivities are thus fully non-parametric. We show that the results entangle the baseline model specification and the agent's risk attitudes. The sensitivities can behave in a non-monotone way as a function of the baseline model's Sharpe's ratio, the relative weighting of assets in an agent's portfolio can change and marginal prices can increase when an agent faces model uncertainty.

q-fin.MF

When to Quit Gambling, if You Must!

We develop an approach to solve Barberis (2012)'s casino gambling model in which a gambler whose preferences are specified by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT) must decide when to stop gambling by a prescribed deadline. We assume that the gambler can assist their decision using an independent randomization, and explain why it is a reasonable assumption. The problem is inherently time-inconsistent due to the probability weighting in CPT, and we study both precommitted and naive stopping strategies. We turn the original problem into a computationally tractable mathematical program, based on which we derive an optimal precommitted rule which is randomized and Markovian. The analytical treatment enables us to make several predictions regarding a gambler's behavior, including that with randomization they may enter the casino even when allowed to play only once, that whether they will play longer once they are granted more bets depends on whether they are in a gain or at a loss, and that it is prevalent that a naivite never stops loss.

q-fin.MF

Sensitivity analysis of Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization problems

We consider sensitivity of a generic stochastic optimization problem to model uncertainty. We take a non-parametric approach and capture model uncertainty using Wasserstein balls around the postulated model. We provide explicit formulae for the first order correction to both the value function and the optimizer and further extend our results to optimization under linear constraints. We present applications to statistics, machine learning, mathematical finance and uncertainty quantification. In particular, we provide explicit first-order approximation for square-root LASSO regression coefficients and deduce coefficient shrinkage compared to the ordinary least squares regression. We consider robustness of call option pricing and deduce a new Black-Scholes sensitivity, a non-parametric version of the so-called Vega. We also compute sensitivities of optimized certainty equivalents in finance and propose measures to quantify robustness of neural networks to adversarial examples.

math.OC

Robust estimation of superhedging prices

We consider statistical estimation of superhedging prices using historical stock returns in a frictionless market with d traded assets. We introduce a plugin estimator based on empirical measures and show it is consistent but lacks suitable robustness. To address this we propose novel estimators which use a larger set of martingale measures defined through a tradeoff between the radius of Wasserstein balls around the empirical measure and the allowed norm of martingale densities. We establish consistency and robustness of these estimators and argue that they offer a superior performance relative to the plugin estimator. We generalise the results by replacing the superhedging criterion with acceptance relative to a risk measure. We further extend our study, in part, to the case of markets with traded options, to a multiperiod setting and to settings with model uncertainty. We also study convergence rates of estimators and convergence of superhedging strategies.

q-fin.ST

Joint Modelling and Calibration of SPX and VIX by Optimal Transport

This paper addresses the joint calibration problem of SPX options and VIX options or futures. We show that the problem can be formulated as a semimartingale optimal transport problem under a finite number of discrete constraints, in the spirit of [arXiv:1906.06478]. We introduce a PDE formulation along with its dual counterpart. The solution, a calibrated diffusion process, can be represented via the solutions of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations arising from the dual formulation. The method is tested on both simulated data and market data. Numerical examples show that the model can be accurately calibrated to SPX options, VIX options and VIX futures simultaneously.

q-fin.MF

A unified Framework for Robust Modelling of Financial Markets in discrete time

We unify and establish equivalence between the pathwise and the quasi-sure approaches to robust modelling of financial markets in discrete time. In particular, we prove a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Superhedging Theorem, which encompass the formulations of [Bouchard, B., & Nutz, M. (2015). Arbitrage and duality in nondominated discrete-time models. The Annals of Applied Probability, 25(2), 823-859] and [Burzoni, M., Frittelli, M., Hou, Z., Maggis, M., & Obloj, J. (2019). Pointwise arbitrage pricing theory in discrete time. Mathematics of Operations Research]. In bringing the two streams of literature together, we also examine and relate their many different notions of arbitrage. We also clarify the relation between robust and classical $\mathbb{P}$-specific results. Furthermore, we prove when a superhedging property w.r.t. the set of martingale measures supported on a set of paths $Ω$ may be extended to a pathwise superhedging on $Ω$ without changing the superhedging price.

q-fin.MF

Efficient discretisation of stochastic differential equations

The aim of this study is to find a generic method for generating a path of the solution of a given stochastic differential equation which is more efficient than the standard Euler-Maruyama scheme with Gaussian increments. First we characterize the asymptotic distribution of pathwise error in the Euler-Maruyama scheme with a general partition of time interval and then, show that the error is reduced by a factor (d+2)/d when using a partition associated with the hitting times of sphere for the driving d-dimensional Brownian motion. This reduction ratio is the best possible in a symmetric class of partitions. Next we show that a reduction which is close to the best possible is achieved by using the hitting time of a moving sphere which is easier to implement.

math.PR

Robust pricing and hedging of options on multiple assets and its numerics

We consider robust pricing and hedging for options written on multiple assets given market option prices for the individual assets. The resulting problem is called the multi-marginal martingale optimal transport problem. We propose two numerical methods to solve such problems: using discretisation and linear programming applied to the primal side and using penalisation and deep neural networks optimisation applied to the dual side. We prove convergence for our methods and compare their numerical performance. We show how adding further information about call option prices at additional maturities can be incorporated and narrows down the no-arbitrage pricing bounds. Finally, we obtain structural results for the case of the payoff given by a weighted sum of covariances between the assets.

math.PR

Computational Methods for Martingale Optimal Transport problems

We establish numerical methods for solving the martingale optimal transport problem (MOT) - a version of the classical optimal transport with an additional martingale constraint on transport's dynamics. We prove that the MOT value can be approximated using linear programming (LP) problems which result from a discretisation of the marginal distributions combined with a suitable relaxation of the martingale constraint. Specialising to dimension one, we provide bounds on the convergence rate of the above scheme. We also show a stability result under only partial specification of the marginal distributions. Finally, we specialise to a particular discretisation scheme which preserves the convex ordering and does not require the martingale relaxation. We introduce an entropic regularisation for the corresponding LP problem and detail the corresponding iterative Bregman projection. We also rewrite its dual problem as a minimisation problem without constraint and solve it by computing the concave envelope of scattered data.

math.PR

The robust superreplication problem: a dynamic approach

In the frictionless discrete time financial market of Bouchard et al.(2015) we consider a trader who, due to regulatory requirements or internal risk management reasons, is required to hedge a claim $ξ$ in a risk-conservative way relative to a family of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$. We first describe the evolution of $π_t(ξ)$ - the superhedging price at time $t$ of the liability $ξ$ at maturity $T$ - via a dynamic programming principle and show that $π_t(ξ)$ can be seen as a concave envelope of $π_{t+1}(ξ)$ evaluated at today's prices. Then we consider an optimal investment problem for a trader who is rolling over her robust superhedge and phrase this as a robust maximisation problem, where the expected utility of inter-temporal consumption is optimised subject to a robust superhedging constraint. This utility maximisation is carrried out under a new family of measures $\mathcal{P}^u$, which no longer have to capture regulatory or institutional risk views but rather represent trader's subjective views on market dynamics. Under suitable assumptions on the trader's utility functions, we show that optimal investment and consumption strategies exist and further specify when, and in what sense, these may be unique.

q-fin.MF