arXiv subjects

Jan Obloj

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Obloj.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Robust Trading of Implied Skew

In this paper, we present a method for constructing a (static) portfolio of co-maturing European options whose price sign is determined by the skewness level of the associated implied volatility. This property holds regardless of the validity of a specific model - i.e. the method is robust. The strategy is given explicitly and depends only on beliefs about the future values of implied skewness, which is an observable market indicator. As such, our method allows to use the existing statistical tools to formulate the beliefs, providing a practical interpretation of the more abstract mathematical setting, in which the belies are understood as a family of probability measures. One of the applications of our results is a method for trading views on the future changes in implied skew, largely independently of other market factors. Another application provides a concrete improvement of the existing model-independent super- and sub- replication strategies for barrier options, which exploits a given set of beliefs on the implied skew. Our theoretical results are tested empirically, using the historical prices of SP500 options.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2015

On robust pricing-hedging duality in continuous time

We pursue robust approach to pricing and hedging in mathematical finance. We consider a continuous time setting in which some underlying assets and options, with continuous paths, are available for dynamic trading and a further set of European options, possibly with varying maturities, is available for static trading. Motivated by the notion of prediction set in Mykland (2003), we include in our setup modelling beliefs by allowing to specify a set of paths to be considered, e.g. super-replication of a contingent claim is required only for paths falling in the given set. Our framework thus interpolates between model-independent and model-specific settings and allows to quantify the impact of making assumptions or gaining information. We obtain a general pricing-hedging duality result: the infimum over superhedging prices is equal to supremum over calibrated martingale measures. In presence of non-trivial beliefs, the equality is between limiting values of perturbed problems. In particular, our results include the martingale optimal transport duality of Dolinsky and Soner (2013) and extend it to multiple dimensions and multiple maturities.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2015

Robust pricing and hedging under trading restrictions and the emergence of local martingale models

We consider the pricing of derivatives in a setting with trading restrictions, but without any probabilistic assumptions on the underlying model, in discrete and continuous time. In particular, we assume that European put or call options are traded at certain maturities, and the forward price implied by these option prices may be strictly decreasing in time. In discrete time, when call options are traded, the short-selling restrictions ensure no arbitrage, and we show that classical duality holds between the smallest super-replication price and the supremum over expectations of the payoff over all supermartingale measures. More surprisingly in the case where the only vanilla options are put options, we show that there is a duality gap. Embedding the discrete time model into a continuous time setup, we make a connection with (strict) local-martingale models, and derive framework and results often seen in the literature on financial bubbles. This connection suggests a certain natural interpretation of many existing results in the literature on financial bubbles.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2014

Time--consistent investment under model uncertainty: the robust forward criteria

We combine forward investment performance processes and ambiguity averse portfolio selection. We introduce the notion of robust forward criteria which addresses the issues of ambiguity in model specification and in preferences and investment horizon specification. It describes the evolution of time-consistent ambiguity averse preferences. We first focus on establishing dual characterizations of the robust forward criteria. This offers various advantages as the dual problem amounts to a search for an infimum whereas the primal problem features a saddle-point. Our approach is based on ideas developed in Schied (2007) and Zitkovic (2009). We then study in detail non-volatile criteria. In particular, we solve explicitly the example of an investor who starts with a logarithmic utility and applies a quadratic penalty function. The investor builds a dynamical estimate of the market price of risk $\hat λ$ and updates her stochastic utility in accordance with the so-perceived elapsed market opportunities. We show that this leads to a time-consistent optimal investment policy given by a fractional Kelly strategy associated with $\hat λ$. The leverage is proportional to the investor's confidence in her estimate $\hat λ$.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2014

Martingale Inequalities for the Maximum via Pathwise Arguments

We study a class of martingale inequalities involving the running maximum process. They are derived from pathwise inequalities introduced by Henry_Labordere et al. (2013) and provide an upper bound on the expectation of a function of the running maximum in terms of marginal distributions at n intermediate time points. The class of inequalities is rich and we show that in general no inequality is uniformly sharp - for any two inequalities we specify martingales such that one or the other inequality is sharper. We then use our inequalities to recover Doob's L^p inequalities. For p in (0,1] we obtain new, or refined, inequalities.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Optimal portfolios of a long-term investor with floor or drawdown constraints

We study the portfolio selection problem of a long-run investor who is maximising the asymptotic growth rate of her expected utility. We show that, somewhat surprisingly, it is essentially not affected by introduction of a floor constraint which requires the wealth process to dominate a given benchmark at all times. We further study the notion of long-run optimality of wealth processes via convergence of finite horizon value functions to the asymptotic optimal value. We characterise long-run optimality under floor and drawdown constraints.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2013

Portfolio optimisation under non-linear drawdown constraints in a semimartingale financial model

A drawdown constraint forces the current wealth to remain above a given function of its maximum to date. We consider the portfolio optimisation problem of maximising the long-term growth rate of the expected utility of wealth subject to a drawdown constraint, as in the original setup of Grossman and Zhou (1993). We work in an abstract semimartingale financial market model with a general class of utility functions and drawdown constraints. We solve the problem by showing that it is in fact equivalent to an unconstrained problem with a suitably modified utility function. Both the value function and the optimal investment policy for the drawdown problem are given explicitly in terms of their counterparts in the unconstrained problem.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2012

The numeraire property and long-term growth optimality for drawdown-constrained investments

We consider the portfolio choice problem for a long-run investor in a general continuous semimartingale model. We suggest to use path-wise growth optimality as the decision criterion and encode preferences through restrictions on the class of admissible wealth processes. Specifically, the investor is only interested in strategies which satisfy a given linear drawdown constraint. The paper introduces the numeraire property through the notion of expected relative return and shows that drawdown-constrained strategies with the numeraire property exist and are unique, but may depend on the financial planning horizon. However, when sampled at the times of its maximum and asymptotically as the time-horizon becomes distant, the drawdown-constrained numeraire portfolio is given explicitly through a model-independent transformation of the unconstrained numeraire portfolio. Further, it is established that the asymptotically growth-optimal strategy is obtained as limit of numeraire strategies on finite horizons.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2012

Arbitrage Bounds for Prices of Weighted Variance Swaps

We develop robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap when market prices for a finite number of co--maturing put options are given. We assume the given prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no-arbitrage bounds on the weighted variance swap along with super- and sub- replicating strategies which enforce them. We find that market quotes for variance swaps are surprisingly close to the model-free lower bounds we determine. We solve the problem by transforming it into an analogous question for a European option with a convex payoff. The lower bound becomes a problem in semi-infinite linear programming which we solve in detail. The upper bound is explicit. We work in a model-independent and probability-free setup. In particular we use and extend Föllmer's pathwise stochastic calculus. Appropriate notions of arbitrage and admissibility are introduced. This allows us to establish the usual hedging relation between the variance swap and the 'log contract' and similar connections for weighted variance swaps. Our results take form of a FTAP: we show that the absence of (weak) arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a classical model which reproduces the observed prices via risk-neutral expectations of discounted payoffs.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2012

Utility theory front to back - inferring utility from agents' choices

We pursue an inverse approach to utility theory and consumption & investment problems. Instead of specifying an agent's utility function and deriving her actions, we assume we observe her actions (i.e. her consumption and investment strategies) and ask if it is possible to derive a utility function for which the observed behaviour is optimal. We work in continuous time both in a deterministic and stochastic setting. In the deterministic setup, we find that there are infinitely many utility functions generating a given consumption pattern. In the stochastic setting of the Black-Scholes complete market it turns out that the consumption and investment strategies have to satisfy a consistency condition (PDE) if they are to come from a classical utility maximisation problem. We show further that important characteristics of the agent such as her attitude towards risk (e.g. DARA) can be deduced directly from her consumption/investment choices.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2009

Robust pricing and hedging of double no-touch options

Double no-touch options, contracts which pay out a fixed amount provided an underlying asset remains within a given interval, are commonly traded, particularly in FX markets. In this work, we establish model-free bounds on the price of these options based on the prices of more liquidly traded options (call and digital call options). Key steps are the construction of super- and sub-hedging strategies to establish the bounds, and the use of Skorokhod embedding techniques to show the bounds are the best possible. In addition to establishing rigorous bounds, we consider carefully what is meant by arbitrage in settings where there is no {\it a priori} known probability measure. We discuss two natural extensions of the notion of arbitrage, weak arbitrage and weak free lunch with vanishing risk, which are needed to establish equivalence between the lack of arbitrage and the existence of a market model.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2008

Market completion using options

Mathematical models for financial asset prices which include, for example, stochastic volatility or jumps are incomplete in that derivative securities are generally not replicable by trading in the underlying. In earlier work (2004) the first author provided a geometric condition under which trading in the underlying and a finite number of vanilla options completes the market. We complement this result in several ways. First, we show that the geometric condition is not necessary and a weaker, necessary and sufficient, condition is presented. While this condition is generally not directly verifiable, we show that it simplifies to matrix non-degeneracy in a single point when the pricing functions are real analytic functions. In particular, any stochastic volatility model is then completed with an arbitrary European type option. Further, we show that adding path-dependent options such as a variance swap to the set of primary assets, instead of plain vanilla options, also completes the market.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2008

An explicit Skorokhod embedding for spectrally negative Levy processes

We present an explicit solution to the Skorokhod embedding problem for spectrally negative Lévy processes. Given a process $X$ and a target measure $μ$ satisfying an explicit admissibility condition we define functions $\f_\pm$ such that the stopping time $T = \inf\{t>0: X_t \in \{-\f_-(L_t), \f_+(L_t)\}\}$ induces $X_T\sim μ$. We also treat versions of $T$ which take into account the sign of the excursion straddling time $t$. We prove that our stopping times are minimal and we describe criteria under which they are integrable. We compare our solution with the one proposed by Bertoin and Le Jan (1992) and we compute explicitly their general quantities in our setup. Our method relies on some new explicit calculations relating scale functions and the Itô excursion measure of $X$. More precisely, we compute the joint law of the maximum and minimum of an excursion away from 0 in terms of the scale function.

math.PR↗

arXiv2008

Fine-tune your smile: Correction to Hagan et al

In this small note we use results derived in Berestycki et al. to correct the celebrated formulae of Hagan et al. We derive explicitly the correct zero order term in the expansion of the implied volatility in time to maturity. The new term is consistent as $β\to 1$. Furthermore, numerical simulations show that it reduces or eliminates known pathologies of the earlier formula.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2006

Classes of Skorokhod Embeddings for the Simple Symmetric Random Walk

The Skorokhod Embedding problem is well understood when the underlying process is a Brownian motion. We examine the problem when the underlying is the simple symmetric random walk and when no external randomisation is allowed. We prove that any measure on Z can be embedded by means of a minimal stopping time. However, in sharp contrast to the Brownian setting, we show that the set of measures which can be embedded in a uniformly integrable way is strictly smaller then the set of centered probability measures: specifically it is a fractal set which we characterise as an iterated function system. Finally, we define the natural extension of several known constructions from the Brownian setting and show that these constructions require us to further restrict the sets of target laws.

math.PR↗

arXiv2005

The Skorokhod embedding problem and its offspring

This is a survey about the Skorokhod embedding problem. It presents all known solutions together with their properties and some applications. Some of the solutions are just described, while others are studied in detail and their proofs are presented. A certain unification of proofs, based on one-dimensional potential theory, is made. Some new facts which appeared in a natural way when different solutions were cross-examined, are reported. Azéma and Yor's and Root's solutions are studied extensively. A possible use of the latter is suggested together with a conjecture.

math.PR↗

arXiv2005

An explicit Skorokhod embedding for functionals of Markovian excursions

We develop an explicit non-randomized solution to the Skorokhod embedding problem in an abstract setup of signed functionals of Markovian excursions. Our setting allows to solve the Skorokhod embedding problem, in particular, for diffusions and their (signed, scaled) age processes, for Azema's martingale, for spectrally one-sided Levy processes and their reflected versions, for Bessel processes of dimension smaller than 2, and for their age processes, as well as for the age process of excursions of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes. This work is a continuation and an important generalization of Obloj and Yor (SPA 110) [35]. Our methodology, following [35], is based on excursion theory and the solution to the Skorokhod embedding problem is described in terms of the Ito measure of the functional. We also derive an embedding for positive functionals and we correct a mistake in the formula in [35] for measures with atoms.

math.PR↗

arXiv2005

The maximality principle revisited: on certain optimal stopping problems

We investigate the optimal stopping problems involving the supremum of a diffusion. The starting point is the link between works of Peskir and Meilijson, which we describe in a unified manner. The description developped follows mainly the work of Peskir and relies on the maximality principle which links the existence and form of the solution to an optimal stopping problem with a special solution of a certain differential equaiton. We also discuss the so-called optimal Skorokhod embedding problem and provide an explicit solution for a large class of measures.

math.PR↗