arXiv subjects

Jesse Read

Publications and source records attributed to Jesse Read.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Geometric Attractor Monitoring: A Robust and Frugal Framework for Multi-modal Industrial Robotic Cycles

Monitoring the health of heterogeneous industrial robot fleets is severely challenged by the multi-modal nature of their operational cycles and a persistent scarcity of run-to-failure data. Standard data-driven approaches, particularly deep learning architectures relying on sequential reconstruction, often struggle in this specific setting; they tend to over-smooth complex dynamics, masking early signs of degradation. To address these industrial constraints, we reframe the monitoring problem through a framework based on Phase Space Reconstruction (PSR). Instead of predicting temporal sequences, this framework transforms univariate sensor data into a geometric attractor, explicitly unfolding the mechanical states independently of their temporal occurrence. By evaluating various anomaly scoring techniques within this space, we demonstrate that discrete support estimation provides an effective and computationally frugal Health Indicator (HI). Validated on a real-world dataset of 21 heterogeneous robots over three years and a synthetic Langevin system, our approach outperforms standard deep learning baselines. We show that aligning the algorithmic bias with the geometric properties of the target system yields a pragmatic, traceable and easily deployable approach perfectly tailored to the realities of industrial constraints.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

RIDE: An Open Dataset and Benchmark for Train Delay Prediction

Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. To address this gap, we introduce RIDE, an open dataset and benchmark for train delay prediction built at nationwide scale over the Belgian railway network. RIDE covers 94.5M train events, 3.6M journeys, and 35.7M weather records from 2023 to 2025. It is organized as a layered data pipeline from raw railway and weather sources to two public releases: a reusable intermediate relational dataset and model-ready benchmark datasets. The benchmark standardizes the prediction task and the training and testing data. It also provides a unified evaluation protocol that supports direct comparison across models. Using this framework, we provide the first comprehensive comparative evaluation of non-learning, statistical learning, and deep learning models. We show that learning-based methods clearly outperform non-learning models, with graph neural networks achieving the best mean performance, while the strongest learning-based models remain relatively close to one another. Beyond aggregate mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), the framework also provides breakdowns by prediction horizon and delay change, enabling more detailed analysis of model behavior across forecasting regimes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

STEP: Learning STructured Embeddings for Progressive Time Series

We present a novel method for learning interpretable representations of progressive time series, that is, data capturing irreversible state transitions such as degradation or task completion. Our approach uses a self-supervised contrastive objective to learn a low-dimensional latent space whose geometry is itself the interpretation: each observation becomes a point on a manifold anchored between two fixed orthogonal prototype vectors, and a trajectory becomes a path across that manifold. From this structure we read a latent compass, the polar coordinates ({\theta}, r) of the latent vector, in which {\theta} tracks the progression of the underlying state (e.g., from healthy to failed) and r identifies the active mode (e.g., the operating condition), without any proxy labels. We evaluate the approach against the state of the art on diverse domains, including industrial degradation, robotic tasks, and neural activity, validating three key capabilities: (1) end-state prediction, (2) multi-step forecasting, and (3) interpretable phase separation. Our method matches or improves over black-box counterparts on all of these while providing transparency about the underlying mechanisms. A simple linear regressor on top of the latent compass coordinates is competitive with deep architectures, direct quantitative evidence that the underlying state is encoded in a geometrically accessible form.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Subspace-Decomposed JEPAs: Disentangling Progression and Content in Latent World Models

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) learn compact latent world models by predicting future embeddings, but no single coordinate of the latent is designated to encode task progression. We carve the JEPA latent into two orthogonal subspaces with disjoint roles: a low-dimensional progression subspace shaped by a cosine-margin triplet loss, and a high-dimensional content subspace regularised by the existing SIGReg objective of LeWM. We prove that the two anti-collapse forces act on disjoint coordinates, so they compose additively rather than competing on the same dimensions. Our method, SD-JEPA improves over the LeWM baseline on the majority of its control benchmarks at matched compute, and outperforms the strongest non-LeWM JEPA baseline on Push-T; a subspace-ablation falsifier confirms the split is the load-bearing ingredient. Beyond planning, the resulting 1-D angular progression coordinate functions as a scene-aware compass on the latent. It advances with task progress, regresses when the agent backtracks, and under controlled perturbations both spikes and relocalises to a semantically appropriate new task-phase sector, separating the moment of surprise from its meaning in a way that prediction-error scalars cannot. Three quantitative tests back this up: $|\Delta\theta_t|$ outperforms the standard latent-prediction-error surprise at localising semantic events on 40 held-out cube episodes by up to +0.18 pooled AUROC (97.5% per-episode win rate at $\pm 1$-step tolerance); a within-episode linear probe across all four environments (40 episodes per env) shows the 8-dimensional progression subspace (4.2% of the latent) explains 72-95% of task-progress variance..

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Decoupling Communication from Policy: Robust MARL under Bandwidth Constraints

Communication enables coordination in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), but many real-world applications, e.g., search-and-rescue with drone swarms, operate under severe bandwidth constraints. Many communication architectures still expose a coupled bottleneck in which a shared latent representation is used for both policy execution and inter-agent communication. Consequently, reducing message size directly limits the policy's latent space, often leading to significant performance degradation. We address this with two contributions. First, we introduce $\beta$, a normalised per-agent bandwidth budget that unifies sparsity, rounds, and message dimension into a single comparable constraint. Second, we provide SLIM, a minimal architecture that decouples the communication pathway from the policy's latent representation, allowing us to isolate the effect of bandwidth from the effect of policy capacity while benefiting from in-step communication. We evaluate our method on several partially-observable MARL benchmarks, where communication is essential. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance and exhibits scalability and robustness under limited communication, with only marginal degradation as bandwidth is reduced.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

A Machine Learning Framework for Turbofan Health Estimation via Inverse Problem Formulation

Estimating the health state of turbofan engines is a challenging ill-posed inverse problem, hindered by sparse sensing and complex nonlinear thermodynamics. Research in this area remains fragmented, with comparisons limited by the use of unrealistic datasets and insufficient exploration of the exploitation of temporal information. This work investigates how to recover component-level health indicators from operational sensor data under realistic degradation and maintenance patterns. To support this study, we introduce a new dataset that incorporates industry-oriented complexities such as maintenance events and usage changes. Using this dataset, we establish an initial benchmark that compares steady-state and nonstationary data-driven models, and Bayesian filters, classic families of methods used to solve this problem. In addition to this benchmark, we introduce self-supervised learning (SSL) approaches that learn latent representations without access to true health labels, a scenario reflective of real-world operational constraints. By comparing the downstream estimation performance of these unsupervised representations against the direct prediction baselines, we establish a practical lower bound on the difficulty of solving this inverse problem. Our results reveal that traditional filters remain strong baselines, while SSL methods reveal the intrinsic complexity of health estimation and highlight the need for more advanced and interpretable inference strategies. For reproducibility, both the generated dataset and the implementation used in this work are made accessible.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Simulation-Driven Railway Delay Prediction: An Imitation Learning Approach

Reliable prediction of train delays is essential for enhancing the robustness and efficiency of railway transportation systems. In this work, we reframe delay forecasting as a stochastic simulation task, modeling state-transition dynamics through imitation learning. We introduce Drift-Corrected Imitation Learning (DCIL), a novel self-supervised algorithm that extends DAgger by incorporating distance-based drift correction, thereby mitigating covariate shift during rollouts without requiring access to an external oracle or adversarial schemes. Our approach synthesizes the dynamical fidelity of event-driven models with the representational capacity of data-driven methods, enabling uncertainty-aware forecasting via Monte Carlo simulation. We evaluate DCIL using a comprehensive real-world dataset from \textsc{Infrabel}, the Belgian railway infrastructure manager, which encompasses over three million train movements. Our results, focused on predictions up to 30 minutes ahead, demonstrate superior predictive performance of DCIL over traditional regression models and behavioral cloning on deep learning architectures, highlighting its effectiveness in capturing the sequential and uncertain nature of delay propagation in large-scale networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

I-GLIDE: Input Groups for Latent Health Indicators in Degradation Estimation

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Binary Split Categorical feature with Mean Absolute Error Criteria in CART

In the context of the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm, the efficient splitting of categorical features using standard criteria like GINI and Entropy is well-established. However, using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) criterion for categorical features has traditionally relied on various numerical encoding methods. This paper demonstrates that unsupervised numerical encoding methods are not viable for the MAE criteria. Furthermore, we present a novel and efficient splitting algorithm that addresses the challenges of handling categorical features with the MAE criterion. Our findings underscore the limitations of existing approaches and offer a promising solution to enhance the handling of categorical data in CART algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Estimating Conditional Covariance between labels for Multilabel Data

Multilabel data should be analysed for label dependence before applying multilabel models. Independence between multilabel data labels cannot be measured directly from the label values due to their dependence on the set of covariates $\vec{x}$, but can be measured by examining the conditional label covariance using a multivariate Probit model. Unfortunately, the multivariate Probit model provides an estimate of its copula covariance, and so might not be reliable in estimating constant covariance and dependent covariance. In this article, we compare three models (Multivariate Probit, Multivariate Bernoulli and Staged Logit) for estimating the constant and dependent multilabel conditional label covariance. We provide an experiment that allows us to observe each model's measurement of conditional covariance. We found that all models measure constant and dependent covariance equally well, depending on the strength of the covariance, but the models all falsely detect that dependent covariance is present for data where constant covariance is present. Of the three models, the Multivariate Probit model had the lowest error rate.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Uncertainty Quantification as a Complementary Latent Health Indicator for Remaining Useful Life Prediction on Turbofan Engines

Health Indicators (HIs) are essential for predicting system failures in predictive maintenance. While methods like RaPP (Reconstruction along Projected Pathways) improve traditional HI approaches by leveraging autoencoder latent spaces, their performance can be hindered by both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates uncertainty quantification into autoencoder-based latent spaces, enhancing RaPP-generated HIs. We demonstrate that separating aleatoric uncertainty from epistemic uncertainty and cross combining HI information is the driver of accuracy improvements in Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Our method employs both standard and variational autoencoders to construct these HIs, which are then used to train a machine learning model for RUL prediction. Benchmarked on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan dataset, our approach outperforms traditional HI-based methods and end-to-end RUL prediction models and is competitive with RUL estimation methods. These results underscore the importance of uncertainty quantification in health assessment and showcase its significant impact on predictive performance when incorporated into the HI construction process.

cs.PF↗

arXiv2025

Parameter-Efficient Distributional RL via Normalizing Flows and a Geometry-Aware Cram\'er Surrogate

Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL) improves upon expectation-based methods by modeling full return distributions, but standard approaches often remain far from parsimonious. Categorical methods (e.g., C51) rely on fixed supports where parameter counts scale linearly with resolution, while quantile methods approximate distributions as discrete mixtures whose piecewise-constant densities can be wasteful when modeling complex multi-modal or heavy-tailed returns. We introduce NFDRL, a parsimonious architecture that models return distributions using continuous normalizing flows. Unlike categorical baselines, our flow-based model maintains a compact parameter footprint that does not grow with the effective resolution of the distribution, while providing a dynamic, adaptive support for returns. To train this continuous representation, we propose a Cram\'er-inspired, geometry-aware distance defined over probability masses obtained from the flow. We show that this distance is a true probability metric, that the associated distributional Bellman operator is a sqrt(gamma)-contraction, and that the resulting objective admits unbiased sample gradients, properties that are typically not simultaneously guaranteed in prior PDF-based DistRL methods. Empirically, NFDRL recovers rich, multi-modal return landscapes on toy MDPs and achieves performance competitive with categorical baselines on the Atari-5 benchmark, while offering substantially better parameter efficiency.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Feature Importance Depends on Properties of the Data: Towards Choosing the Correct Explanations for Your Data and Decision Trees based Models

In order to ensure the reliability of the explanations of machine learning models, it is crucial to establish their advantages and limits and in which case each of these methods outperform. However, the current understanding of when and how each method of explanation can be used is insufficient. To fill this gap, we perform a comprehensive empirical evaluation by synthesizing multiple datasets with the desired properties. Our main objective is to assess the quality of feature importance estimates provided by local explanation methods, which are used to explain predictions made by decision tree-based models. By analyzing the results obtained from synthetic datasets as well as publicly available binary classification datasets, we observe notable disparities in the magnitude and sign of the feature importance estimates generated by these methods. Moreover, we find that these estimates are sensitive to specific properties present in the data. Although some model hyper-parameters do not significantly influence feature importance assignment, it is important to recognize that each method of explanation has limitations in specific contexts. Our assessment highlights these limitations and provides valuable insight into the suitability and reliability of different explanatory methods in various scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Label Cluster Chains for Multi-Label Classification

Multi-label classification is a type of supervised machine learning that can simultaneously assign multiple labels to an instance. To solve this task, some methods divide the original problem into several sub-problems (local approach), others learn all labels at once (global approach), and others combine several classifiers (ensemble approach). Regardless of the approach used, exploring and learning label correlations is important to improve the classifier predictions. Ensemble of Classifier Chains (ECC) is a well-known multi-label method that considers label correlations and can achieve good overall performance on several multi-label datasets and evaluation measures. However, one of the challenges when working with ECC is the high dimensionality of the label space, which can impose limitations for fully-cascaded chains as the complexity increases regarding feature space expansion. To improve classifier chains, we propose a method to chain disjoint correlated label clusters obtained by applying a partition method in the label space. During the training phase, the ground truth labels of each cluster are used as new features for all of the following clusters. During the test phase, the predicted labels of clusters are used as new features for all the following clusters. Our proposal, called Label Cluster Chains for Multi-Label Classification (LCC-ML), uses multi-label Random Forests as base classifiers in each cluster, combining their predictions to obtain a final multi-label classification. Our proposal obtained better results compared to the original ECC. This shows that learning and chaining disjoint correlated label clusters can better explore and learn label correlations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Branches: Efficiently Seeking Optimal Sparse Decision Trees with AO*

Decision Tree (DT) Learning is a fundamental problem in Interpretable Machine Learning, yet it poses a formidable optimisation challenge. Practical algorithms have recently emerged, primarily leveraging Dynamic Programming and Branch & Bound. However, most of these approaches rely on a Depth-First-Search strategy, which is inefficient when searching for DTs at high depths and requires the definition of a maximum depth hyperparameter. Best-First-Search was also employed by other methods to circumvent these issues. The downside of this strategy is its higher memory consumption, as such, it has to be designed in a fully efficient manner that takes full advantage of the problem's structure. We formulate the problem within an AND/OR graph search framework and we solve it with a novel AO*-type algorithm called Branches. We prove both optimality and complexity guarantees for Branches and we show that it is more efficient than the state of the art theoretically and on a variety of experiments. Furthermore, Branches supports non-binary features unlike the other methods, we show that this property can further induce larger gains in computational efficiency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Online Learning of Decision Trees with Thompson Sampling

Decision Trees are prominent prediction models for interpretable Machine Learning. They have been thoroughly researched, mostly in the batch setting with a fixed labelled dataset, leading to popular algorithms such as C4.5, ID3 and CART. Unfortunately, these methods are of heuristic nature, they rely on greedy splits offering no guarantees of global optimality and often leading to unnecessarily complex and hard-to-interpret Decision Trees. Recent breakthroughs addressed this suboptimality issue in the batch setting, but no such work has considered the online setting with data arriving in a stream. To this end, we devise a new Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithm, Thompson Sampling Decision Trees (TSDT), able to produce optimal Decision Trees in an online setting. We analyse our algorithm and prove its almost sure convergence to the optimal tree. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to validate our findings empirically. The proposed TSDT outperforms existing algorithms on several benchmarks, all while presenting the practical advantage of being tailored to the online setting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A Historical Context for Data Streams

Machine learning from data streams is an active and growing research area. Research on learning from streaming data typically makes strict assumptions linked to computational resource constraints, including requirements for stream mining algorithms to inspect each instance not more than once and be ready to give a prediction at any time. Here we review the historical context of data streams research placing the common assumptions used in machine learning over data streams in their historical context.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Uncovering the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Wind Resources in Europe: A Web-Based Data-Mining Tool

We introduce REmap-eu.app, a web-based data-mining visualization tool of the spatial and temporal variability of wind resources. It uses the latest open-access dataset of the daily wind capacity factor in 28 European countries between 1979 and 2019 and proposes several user-configurable visualizations of the temporal and spatial variations of the wind power capacity factor. The platform allows for a deep analysis of the distribution, the crosscountry correlation, and the drivers of low wind power events. It offers an easy-to-use interface that makes it suitable for the needs of researchers and stakeholders. The tool is expected to be useful in identifying areas of high wind potential and possible challenges that may impact the large-scale deployment of wind turbines in Europe. Particular importance is given to the visualization of low wind power events and to the potential of cross-border cooperations in mitigating the variability of wind in the context of increasing reliance on weather-sensitive renewable energy sources.

stat.AP↗