arXiv subjects

Jessica Hullman

Publications and source records attributed to Jessica Hullman.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Are We Closing the Loop Yet? Gaps in the Generalizability of VIS4ML Research

Visualization for machine learning (VIS4ML) research aims to help experts apply their prior knowledge to develop, understand, and improve the performance of machine learning models. In conceiving VIS4ML systems, researchers characterize the nature of human knowledge to support human-in-the-loop tasks, design interactive visualizations to make ML components interpretable and elicit knowledge, and evaluate the effectiveness of human-model interchange. We survey recent VIS4ML papers to assess the generalizability of research contributions and claims in enabling human-in-the-loop ML. Our results show potential gaps between the current scope of VIS4ML research and aspirations for its use in practice. We find that while papers motivate that VIS4ML systems are applicable beyond the specific conditions studied, conclusions are often overfitted to non-representative scenarios, are based on interactions with a small set of ML experts and well-understood datasets, fail to acknowledge crucial dependencies, and hinge on decisions that lack justification. We discuss approaches to close the gap between aspirations and research claims and suggest documentation practices to report generality constraints that better acknowledge the exploratory nature of VIS4ML research.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

Dupo: A Mixed-Initiative Authoring Tool for Responsive Visualization

Designing responsive visualizations for various screen types can be tedious as authors must manage multiple chart~versions across design iterations. Automated approaches for responsive visualization must take into account the user's need for agency in exploring possible design ideas and applying customizations based on their own goals. We design and implement Dupo, a mixed-initiative approach to creating responsive visualizations that combines the agency afforded by a manual interface with automation provided by a recommender system. Given an initial design, users can browse automated design suggestions for a different screen type and make edits to a chosen design, thereby supporting quick prototyping and customizability. Dupo employs a two-step recommender pipeline that first suggests significant design changes (Exploration) followed by more subtle changes (Alteration). We evaluated Dupo with six expert responsive visualization authors. While creating responsive versions of a source design in Dupo, participants could reason about different design suggestions without having to manually prototype them, and thus avoid prematurely fixating on a particular design. This process led participants to create designs that they were satisfied with but which they had previously overlooked.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

Causal quartets: Different ways to attain the same average treatment effect

The average causal effect can often be best understood in the context of its variation. We demonstrate with two sets of four graphs, all of which represent the same average effect but with much different patterns of heterogeneity. As with the famous correlation quartet of Anscombe (1973), these graphs dramatize the way in which real-world variation can be more complex than simple numerical summaries. The graphs also give insight into why the average effect is often much smaller than anticipated.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

MetaExplorer: Facilitating Reasoning with Epistemic Uncertainty in Meta-analysis

Scientists often use meta-analysis to characterize the impact of an intervention on some outcome of interest across a body of literature. However, threats to the utility and validity of meta-analytic estimates arise when scientists average over potentially important variations in context like different research designs. Uncertainty about quality and commensurability of evidence casts doubt on results from meta-analysis, yet existing software tools for meta-analysis do not necessarily emphasize addressing these concerns in their workflows. We present MetaExplorer, a prototype system for meta-analysis that we developed using iterative design with meta-analysis experts to provide a guided process for eliciting assessments of uncertainty and reasoning about how to incorporate them during statistical inference. Our qualitative evaluation of MetaExplorer with experienced meta-analysts shows that imposing a structured workflow both elevates the perceived importance of epistemic concerns and presents opportunities for tools to engage users in dialogue around goals and standards for evidence aggregation.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2022

The worst of both worlds: A comparative analysis of errors in learning from data in psychology and machine learning

Recent arguments that machine learning (ML) is facing a reproducibility and replication crisis suggest that some published claims in ML research cannot be taken at face value. These concerns inspire analogies to the replication crisis affecting the social and medical sciences. They also inspire calls for the integration of statistical approaches to causal inference and predictive modeling. A deeper understanding of what reproducibility concerns in supervised ML research have in common with the replication crisis in experimental science puts the new concerns in perspective, and helps researchers avoid "the worst of both worlds," where ML researchers begin borrowing methodologies from explanatory modeling without understanding their limitations and vice versa. We contribute a comparative analysis of concerns about inductive learning that arise in causal attribution as exemplified in psychology versus predictive modeling as exemplified in ML. We identify themes that re-occur in reform discussions, like overreliance on asymptotic theory and non-credible beliefs about real-world data generating processes. We argue that in both fields, claims from learning are implied to generalize outside the specific environment studied (e.g., the input dataset or subject sample, modeling implementation, etc.) but are often impossible to refute due to undisclosed sources of variance in the learning pipeline. In particular, errors being acknowledged in ML expose cracks in long-held beliefs that optimizing predictive accuracy using huge datasets absolves one from having to consider a true data generating process or formally represent uncertainty in performance claims. We conclude by discussing risks that arise when sources of errors are misdiagnosed and the need to acknowledge the role of human inductive biases in learning and reform.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Cicero: A Declarative Grammar for Responsive Visualization

Designing responsive visualizations can be cast as applying transformations to a source view to render it suitable for a different screen size. However, designing responsive visualizations is often tedious as authors must manually apply and reason about candidate transformations. We present Cicero, a declarative grammar for concisely specifying responsive visualization transformations which paves the way for more intelligent responsive visualization authoring tools. Cicero's flexible specifier syntax allows authors to select visualization elements to transform, independent of the source view's structure. Cicero encodes a concise set of actions to encode a diverse set of transformations in both desktop-first and mobile-first design processes. Authors can ultimately reuse design-agnostic transformations across different visualizations. To demonstrate the utility of Cicero, we develop a compiler to an extended version of Vega-Lite, and provide principles for our compiler. We further discuss the incorporation of Cicero into responsive visualization authoring tools, such as a design recommender.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2022

Visualizing Privacy-Utility Trade-Offs in Differentially Private Data Releases

Organizations often collect private data and release aggregate statistics for the public's benefit. If no steps toward preserving privacy are taken, adversaries may use released statistics to deduce unauthorized information about the individuals described in the private dataset. Differentially private algorithms address this challenge by slightly perturbing underlying statistics with noise, thereby mathematically limiting the amount of information that may be deduced from each data release. Properly calibrating these algorithms -- and in turn the disclosure risk for people described in the dataset -- requires a data curator to choose a value for a privacy budget parameter, $ε$. However, there is little formal guidance for choosing $ε$, a task that requires reasoning about the probabilistic privacy-utility trade-off. Furthermore, choosing $ε$ in the context of statistical inference requires reasoning about accuracy trade-offs in the presence of both measurement error and differential privacy (DP) noise. We present Visualizing Privacy (ViP), an interactive interface that visualizes relationships between $ε$, accuracy, and disclosure risk to support setting and splitting $ε$ among queries. As a user adjusts $ε$, ViP dynamically updates visualizations depicting expected accuracy and risk. ViP also has an inference setting, allowing a user to reason about the impact of DP noise on statistical inferences. Finally, we present results of a study where 16 research practitioners with little to no DP background completed a set of tasks related to setting $ε$ using both ViP and a control. We find that ViP helps participants more correctly answer questions related to judging the probability of where a DP-noised release is likely to fall and comparing between DP-noised and non-private confidence intervals.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2021

Visualizing Uncertainty in Probabilistic Graphs with Network Hypothetical Outcome Plots (NetHOPs)

Probabilistic graphs are challenging to visualize using the traditional node-link diagram. Encoding edge probability using visual variables like width or fuzziness makes it difficult for users of static network visualizations to estimate network statistics like densities, isolates, path lengths, or clustering under uncertainty. We introduce Network Hypothetical Outcome Plots (NetHOPs), a visualization technique that animates a sequence of network realizations sampled from a network distribution defined by probabilistic edges. NetHOPs employ an aggregation and anchoring algorithm used in dynamic and longitudinal graph drawing to parameterize layout stability for uncertainty estimation. We present a community matching algorithm to enable visualizing the uncertainty of cluster membership and community occurrence. We describe the results of a study in which 51 network experts used NetHOPs to complete a set of common visual analysis tasks and reported how they perceived network structures and properties subject to uncertainty. Participants' estimates fell, on average, within 11% of the ground truth statistics, suggesting NetHOPs can be a reasonable approach for enabling network analysts to reason about multiple properties under uncertainty. Participants appeared to articulate the distribution of network statistics slightly more accurately when they could manipulate the layout anchoring and the animation speed. Based on these findings, we synthesize design recommendations for developing and using animated visualizations for probabilistic networks.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Visualization Equilibrium

In many real-world strategic settings, people use information displays to make decisions. In these settings, an information provider chooses which information to provide to strategic agents and how to present it, and agents formulate a best response based on the information and their anticipation of how others will behave. We contribute the results of a controlled online experiment to examine how the provision and presentation of information impacts people's decisions in a congestion game. Our experiment compares how different visualization approaches for displaying this information, including bar charts and hypothetical outcome plots, and different information conditions, including where the visualized information is private versus public (i.e., available to all agents), affect decision making and welfare. We characterize the effects of visualization anticipation, referring to changes to behavior when an agent goes from alone having access to a visualization to knowing that others also have access to the visualization to guide their decisions. We also empirically identify the visualization equilibrium, i.e., the visualization for which the visualized outcome of agents' decisions matches the realized decisions of the agents who view it. We reflect on the implications of visualization equilibria and visualization anticipation for designing information displays for real-world strategic settings.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Causal Support: Modeling Causal Inferences with Visualizations

Analysts often make visual causal inferences about possible data-generating models. However, visual analytics (VA) software tends to leave these models implicit in the mind of the analyst, which casts doubt on the statistical validity of informal visual "insights". We formally evaluate the quality of causal inferences from visualizations by adopting causal support -- a Bayesian cognition model that learns the probability of alternative causal explanations given some data -- as a normative benchmark for causal inferences. We contribute two experiments assessing how well crowdworkers can detect (1) a treatment effect and (2) a confounding relationship. We find that chart users' causal inferences tend to be insensitive to sample size such that they deviate from our normative benchmark. While interactively cross-filtering data in visualizations can improve sensitivity, on average users do not perform reliably better with common visualizations than they do with textual contingency tables. These experiments demonstrate the utility of causal support as an evaluation framework for inferences in VA and point to opportunities to make analysts' mental models more explicit in VA software.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

An Automated Approach to Reasoning About Task-Oriented Insights in Responsive Visualization

Authors often transform a large screen visualization for smaller displays through rescaling, aggregation and other techniques when creating visualizations for both desktop and mobile devices (i.e., responsive visualization). However, transformations can alter relationships or patterns implied by the large screen view, requiring authors to reason carefully about what information to preserve while adjusting their design for the smaller display. We propose an automated approach to approximating the loss of support for task-oriented visualization insights (identification, comparison, and trend) in responsive transformation of a source visualization. We operationalize identification, comparison, and trend loss as objective functions calculated by comparing properties of the rendered source visualization to each realized target (small screen) visualization. To evaluate the utility of our approach, we train machine learning models on human ranked small screen alternative visualizations across a set of source visualizations. We find that our approach achieves an accuracy of 84% (random forest model) in ranking visualizations. We demonstrate this approach in a prototype responsive visualization recommender that enumerates responsive transformations using Answer Set Programming and evaluates the preservation of task-oriented insights using our loss measures. We discuss implications of our approach for the development of automated and semi-automated responsive visualization recommendation.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

To design interfaces for exploratory data analysis, we need theories of graphical inference

Research and development in computer science and statistics have produced increasingly sophisticated software interfaces for interactive and exploratory analysis, optimized for easy pattern finding and data exposure. But design philosophies that emphasize exploration over other phases of analysis risk confusing a need for flexibility with a conclusion that exploratory visual analysis is inherently model-free and cannot be formalized. We describe how without a grounding in theories of human statistical inference, research in exploratory visual analysis can lead to contradictory interface objectives and representations of uncertainty that can discourage users from drawing valid inferences. We discuss how the concept of a model check in a Bayesian statistical framework unites exploratory and confirmatory analysis, and how this understanding relates to other proposed theories of graphical inference. Viewing interactive analysis as driven by model checks suggests new directions for software and empirical research around exploratory and visual analysis. For example, systems should enable specifying and explicitly comparing data to null and other reference distributions and better representations of uncertainty. Implications of Bayesian and other theories of graphical inference should be tested against outcomes of interactive analysis by people to drive theory development.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Unpacking the Expressed Consequences of AI Research in Broader Impact Statements

The computer science research community and the broader public have become increasingly aware of negative consequences of algorithmic systems. In response, the top-tier Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) conference for machine learning and artificial intelligence research required that authors include a statement of broader impact to reflect on potential positive and negative consequences of their work. We present the results of a qualitative thematic analysis of a sample of statements written for the 2020 conference. The themes we identify broadly fall into categories related to how consequences are expressed (e.g., valence, specificity, uncertainty), areas of impacts expressed (e.g., bias, the environment, labor, privacy), and researchers' recommendations for mitigating negative consequences in the future. In light of our results, we offer perspectives on how the broader impact statement can be implemented in future iterations to better align with potential goals.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Design Patterns and Trade-Offs in Responsive Visualization for Communication

Increased access to mobile devices motivates the need to design communicative visualizations that are responsive to varying screen sizes. However, relatively little design guidance or tooling is currently available to authors. We contribute a detailed characterization of responsive visualization strategies in communication-oriented visualizations, identifying 76 total strategies by analyzing 378 pairs of large screen (LS) and small screen (SS) visualizations from online articles and reports. Our analysis distinguishes between the Targets of responsive visualization, referring to what elements of a design are changed and Actions representing how targets are changed. We identify key trade-offs related to authors' need to maintain graphical density, referring to the amount of information per pixel, while also maintaining the "message" or intended takeaways for users of a visualization. We discuss implications of our findings for future visualization tool design to support responsive transformation of visualization designs, including requirements for automated recommenders for communication-oriented responsive visualizations.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Anticipatory Ethics and the Role of Uncertainty

Making conjectures about future consequences of a technology is an exercise in trying to reduce various forms of uncertainty. Both to produce and reason about these conjectures requires understanding their potential limitations. In other words, we need systematic ways of considering uncertainty associated with given conjectures for downstream consequences. In this work, we frame the task of considering future consequences as an anticipatory ethics problem, where the goal is to develop scenarios that reflect plausible outcomes and their ethical implications following a technology's introduction into society. In order to shed light on how various forms of uncertainty might inform how we reason about a resulting scenario, we provide a characterization of the types of uncertainty that arise in a potential scenario-building process.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Visual Reasoning Strategies for Effect Size Judgments and Decisions

Uncertainty visualizations often emphasize point estimates to support magnitude estimates or decisions through visual comparison. However, when design choices emphasize means, users may overlook uncertainty information and misinterpret visual distance as a proxy for effect size. We present findings from a mixed design experiment on Mechanical Turk which tests eight uncertainty visualization designs: 95% containment intervals, hypothetical outcome plots, densities, and quantile dotplots, each with and without means added. We find that adding means to uncertainty visualizations has small biasing effects on both magnitude estimation and decision-making, consistent with discounting uncertainty. We also see that visualization designs that support the least biased effect size estimation do not support the best decision-making, suggesting that a chart user's sense of effect size may not necessarily be identical when they use the same information for different tasks. In a qualitative analysis of users' strategy descriptions, we find that many users switch strategies and do not employ an optimal strategy when one exists. Uncertainty visualizations which are optimally designed in theory may not be the most effective in practice because of the ways that users satisfice with heuristics, suggesting opportunities to better understand visualization effectiveness by modeling sets of potential strategies.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Bayesian-Assisted Inference from Visualized Data

A Bayesian view of data interpretation suggests that a visualization user should update their existing beliefs about a parameter's value in accordance with the amount of information about the parameter value captured by the new observations. Extending recent work applying Bayesian models to understand and evaluate belief updating from visualizations, we show how the predictions of Bayesian inference can be used to guide more rational belief updating. We design a Bayesian inference-assisted uncertainty analogy that numerically relates uncertainty in observed data to the user's subjective uncertainty, and a posterior visualization that prescribes how a user should update their beliefs given their prior beliefs and the observed data. In a pre-registered experiment on 4,800 people, we find that when a newly observed data sample is relatively small (N=158), both techniques reliably improve people's Bayesian updating on average compared to the current best practice of visualizing uncertainty in the observed data. For large data samples (N=5208), where people's updated beliefs tend to deviate more strongly from the prescriptions of a Bayesian model, we find evidence that the effectiveness of the two forms of Bayesian assistance may depend on people's proclivity toward trusting the source of the data. We discuss how our results provide insight into individual processes of belief updating and subjective uncertainty, and how understanding these aspects of interpretation paves the way for more sophisticated interactive visualizations for analysis and communication.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Human Factors in Model Interpretability: Industry Practices, Challenges, and Needs

As the use of machine learning (ML) models in product development and data-driven decision-making processes became pervasive in many domains, people's focus on building a well-performing model has increasingly shifted to understanding how their model works. While scholarly interest in model interpretability has grown rapidly in research communities like HCI, ML, and beyond, little is known about how practitioners perceive and aim to provide interpretability in the context of their existing workflows. This lack of understanding of interpretability as practiced may prevent interpretability research from addressing important needs, or lead to unrealistic solutions. To bridge this gap, we conducted 22 semi-structured interviews with industry practitioners to understand how they conceive of and design for interpretability while they plan, build, and use their models. Based on a qualitative analysis of our results, we differentiate interpretability roles, processes, goals and strategies as they exist within organizations making heavy use of ML models. The characterization of interpretability work that emerges from our analysis suggests that model interpretability frequently involves cooperation and mental model comparison between people in different roles, often aimed at building trust not only between people and models but also between people within the organization. We present implications for design that discuss gaps between the interpretability challenges that practitioners face in their practice and approaches proposed in the literature, highlighting possible research directions that can better address real-world needs.

cs.HC↗