arXiv subjects

Jessica R. Lu

Publications and source records attributed to Jessica R. Lu.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

The 3D Kinematics of the Orion Nebula Cluster II: Mass-dependent Kinematics of the Inner Cluster

We present the kinematic analysis of $246$ stars within $4\mbox{$^\prime$}$ from the center of Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC), the closest massive star cluster with active star formation across the full mass range, which provides valuable insights into the formation and evolution of star clusters on an individual-star basis. High-precision radial velocities and surface temperatures are retrieved from spectra acquired by the NIRSPEC instrument used with adaptive optics (NIRSPAO) on the Keck II 10-m telescope. A three-dimensional kinematic map is then constructed by combining with the proper motions previously measured by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) ACS/WFPC2/WFC3IR and Keck II NIRC2. The measured root-mean-squared velocity dispersion is $2.26\pm0.08~\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}$, significantly higher than the virial equilibrium's requirement of $1.73~\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}$, suggesting that the ONC core is supervirial, consistent with previous findings. Energy equipartition is not detected in the cluster. Most notably, the velocity of each star relative to its neighbors is found to be negatively correlated with stellar mass. Low-mass stars moving faster than their surrounding stars in a supervirial cluster suggest that the initial masses of forming stars may be related to their initial kinematic states. Additionally, a clockwise rotation preference is detected. A weak sign of inverse mass segregation is also identified among stars, excluding the Trapezium stars, though it could be a sample bias. Finally, this study reports the discovery of four new candidate spectroscopic binary systems.

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arXiv2025

Hints of an Anomalous Lens Population towards the Galactic Bulge

The dark and dynamic parts of the Galaxy, including the bulk shape and movement of the Galactic Bulge and characteristics of dark compact object populations, such as a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs), are difficult to study directly by their very nature, but are critical to our understanding of the universe. Fortunately, all of these mysteries can be uniquely studied via gravitational microlensing, a method of astronomical detection that traces mass and dynamics as opposed to light. Using the OGLE-IV microlensing survey bulge fields, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical model to jointly infer properties of the Galaxy, the characteristics of compact objects, and and test PBHs with an extended mass distribution as a test PBHs as a viable explanation of dark matter, extending work focused on the Small and Large Magellanic Clouds, both with much lower event-rates. We infer a preference within the data for a lower patternspeed in the galactic model and a wider mass spectrum for compact objects. When adding a PBH component to the favored astrophysical model from our initial investigations, we find a Bayes factor of $\ln\mathcal{B} = 20.23$ preferring the PBH model. Upon further investigation of these results, we find the critical feature in the PBH model to be the velocity distribution, which is fundamentally different than the velocity distribution of astrophysical objects and uniquely able to explain a large number of low parallax, low timescale microlensing events. Noting that this effect is not unique to PBHs, we consider the implications of these results as applied to a hypothetical population of PBHs and discuss alternative explanations, including a variety of other possible astrophysical and survey or analysis systematics.

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arXiv2025

The La Silla Schmidt Southern Survey

We present the La Silla Schmidt Southern Survey (LS4), a new wide-field, time-domain survey to be conducted with the 1 m ESO Schmidt telescope. The 268 megapixel LS4 camera mosaics 32 2k$\times$4k fully depleted CCDs, providing a $\sim$20 deg$^2$ field of view with $1''$ pixel$^{-1}$ resolution. The LS4 camera will have excellent performance at longer wavelengths: in a standard 45 s exposure the expected 5$σ$ limiting magnitudes in $g$, $i$, $z$ are $\sim$21.5, $\sim$20.9, and $\sim$20.3 mag (AB), respectively. The telescope design requires a novel filter holder that fixes different bandpasses over each quadrant of the detector. Two quadrants will have $i$ band, while the other two will be $g$ and $z$ band and color information will be obtained by dithering targets across the different quadrants. The majority (90%) of the observing time will be used to conduct a public survey that monitors the extragalactic sky at both moderate (3 d) and high (1 d) cadence, as well as focused observations within the Galactic bulge and plane. Alerts from the public survey will be broadcast to the community via established alert brokers. LS4 will run concurrently with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). The combination of LS4+LSST will enable detailed holistic monitoring of many nearby transients: high-cadence LS4 observations will resolve the initial rise and peak of the light curve while less-frequent but deeper observations by LSST will characterize the years before and after explosion. Here, we summarize the primary science objectives of LS4 including microlensing events in the Galaxy, extragalactic transients, the search for electromagnetic counterparts to multi-messenger events, and cosmology.

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arXiv2025

Precise and Accurate Mass and Radius Measurements of Fifteen Galactic Red Giants in Detached Eclipsing Binaries

Precise and accurate mass and radius measurements of evolved stars are crucial to calibrating stellar models. Stars in detached eclipsing binaries (EBs) are excellent potential calibrators because their stellar parameters can be measured with fractional uncertainties of a few percent, independent of stellar models. The All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN) has identified tens of thousands of EBs, >35,000 of which were included in the ASAS-SN eclipsing binaries catalog. Here, we select eight EBs from this sample that contain giants based on their Gaia colors and absolute magnitudes. We use LBT/PEPSI, APF, and CHIRON to obtain multi-epoch spectra of these binaries and measure their radial velocities using two-dimensional cross-correlation methods. We simultaneously fit the ASAS-SN light curves and the radial velocities with PHOEBE to derive accurate and precise masses and radii with fractional uncertainties of $\lesssim 3\%$. For four systems, we also include Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) light curves in our PHOEBE models, which significantly improves the radius determinations. In seven of our systems, both components have evolved off of the main sequence, and one system has a giant star component with a main sequence, Sun-like companion. Finally, we compare our mass and radius measurements to single-star evolutionary tracks and distinguish between systems that are first ascent red giant branch stars and those that are likely core helium-burning stars.

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arXiv2025

Assessing the Impact of Binary Systems on Microlensing Using SPISEA and PopSyCLE Population Simulations

Gravitational microlensing provides a unique opportunity to probe the mass distribution of stars, black holes, and other objects in the Milky Way. Population simulations are necessary to interpret results from microlensing surveys. The contribution from binary objects is often neglected or minimized in analysis of observations and simulations despite the high percentage of binary systems and microlensing's ability to probe binaries. To simulate the population effects we added multiple systems to Stellar Population Interface for Stellar Evolution and Atmospheres (SPISEA), which simulates stellar clusters. We then inject these multiples into Population Synthesis for Compact-object Lensing Events (PopSyCLE), which simulates Milky Way microlensing surveys. When making OGLE observational selection criteria, we find that 55% of observed microlensing events involve a binary system. Specifically, 14.5% of events have a multiple-lens and a single source, 31.7% have a single lens and a multiple-source, and 8.8% have a multiple-lens and a multiple-source. The majority of these events have photometric lightcurves that appear single and are fit well by a single-lens, single-source model. This suggests that binary source and binary lens-binary source models should be included more frequently in event analysis. The mean Einstein crossing time shifts from 19.1 days for single events only to 21.3 days for singles and multiple events, after cutting binary events with multiple peaks. The Einstein crossing time distribution of singles and single-peaked multiple events is better aligned with observed distributions from OGLE (arXiv:1707.07634) than singles alone, indicating that multiple systems are a significant missing piece between simulations and reality.

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arXiv2024

New Evidence for a Flux-independent Spectral Index of Sgr A* in the Near-infrared

In this work, we measure the spectral index of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) between the $H$ (1.6 $μ$m) and $K^\prime$ (2.2 $μ$m) broadband filters in the near-infrared (NIR), sampling over a factor $\sim 40$ in brightness, the largest range probed to date by a factor $\sim 3$. Sgr A*-NIR is highly variable, and studying the spectral index $α$ (with $F_ν\propto ν^α$) is essential to determine the underlying emission mechanism. For example, variations in $α$ with flux may arise from shifts in the synchrotron cutoff frequency, changes in the distribution of electrons, or multiple concurrent emission mechanisms. We investigate potential variations of $α_{H-K^\prime}$ with flux by analyzing 7 epochs (2005 to 2022) of Keck Observatory imaging observations from the Galactic Center Orbits Initiative (GCOI). We remove the flux contribution of known sources confused with Sgr A*-NIR, which can significantly impact color at faint flux levels. We interpolate between the interleaved $H$ and $K^\prime$ observations using Multi-Output Gaussian Processes. We introduce a flexible empirical model to quantify $α$ variations and probe different scenarios. The observations are best fit by an $α_{H-K^\prime} = - 0.50 \pm 0.08 _{\rm stat} \pm 0.17_{\rm sys}$ that is constant from $\sim 1$ mJy to $\sim 40$ mJy (dereddened 2 $μ$m flux). We find no evidence for a flux-dependence of Sgr A*'s intrinsic spectral index. In particular, we rule out a model explaining NIR variability purely by shifts in the synchrotron cutoff frequency. We also constrain the presence of redder, quiescent emission from the black hole, concluding that the dereddened 2 $μ$m flux contribution must be $\leq 0.3$ mJy at 95% confidence level.

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arXiv2024

Microlensing Discovery and Characterization Efficiency in the Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time will discover thousands of microlensing events across the Milky Way Galaxy, allowing for the study of populations of exoplanets, stars, and compact objects. We evaluate numerous survey strategies simulated in the Rubin Operation Simulations (OpSims) to assess the discovery and characterization efficiencies of microlensing events. We have implemented three metrics in the Rubin Metric Analysis Framework: a discovery metric and two characterization metrics, where one estimates how well the lightcurve is covered and the other quantifies how precisely event parameters can be determined. We also assess the characterizability of microlensing parallax, critical for detection of free-floating black hole lenses. We find that, given Rubin's baseline cadence, the discovery and characterization efficiency will be higher for longer duration and larger parallax events. Microlensing discovery efficiency is dominated by the observing footprint, where more time spent looking at regions of high stellar density including the Galactic bulge, Galactic plane, and Magellanic clouds, leads to higher discovery and characterization rates. However, if the observations are stretched over too wide an area, including low-priority areas of the Galactic plane with fewer stars and higher extinction, event characterization suffers by > 10%. This could impact exoplanet, binary star, and compact object events alike. We find that some rolling strategies (where Rubin focuses on a fraction of the sky in alternating years) in the Galactic bulge can lead to a 15-20% decrease in microlensing parallax characterization, so rolling strategies should be chosen carefully to minimize losses.

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arXiv2024

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the Galaxy resulting from the death of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events based on characteristics of their lightcurves to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on a small subsets of events. In this paper we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on lightcurve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing lightcurve parameters making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass python package. We apply the classifier to $\sim10,000$ microlensing events from the OGLE survey and find $23$ high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier according to current Galactic models and allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

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arXiv2024

A Candidate High-Velocity Exoplanet System in the Galactic Bulge

We present an analysis of adaptive optics (AO) images from the Keck-I telescope of the microlensing event MOA-2011-BLG-262. The original discovery paper by Bennett et al. 2014 reports two distinct possibilities for the lens system; a nearby gas giant lens with an exomoon companion or a very low mass star with a planetary companion in the galactic bulge. The $\sim$10 year baseline between the microlensing event and the Keck follow-up observations allows us to detect the faint candidate lens host (star) at $K = 22.3$ mag and confirm the distant lens system interpretation. The combination of the host star brightness and light curve parameters yields host star and planet masses of $M_{\rm host} = 0.19 \pm 0.03M_{\odot}$ and $m_p = 28.92 \pm 4.75M_{\oplus}$ at a distance of $D_L = 7.49 \pm 0.91\,$kpc. We perform a multi-epoch cross reference to \textit{Gaia} DR3 and measure a transverse velocity for the candidate lens system of $v_L = 541.31 \pm 65.75$ km s$^{-1}$. We conclude this event consists of the highest velocity exoplanet system detected to date, and also the lowest mass microlensing host star with a confirmed mass measurement. The high-velocity nature of the lens system can be definitively confirmed with an additional epoch of high-resolution imaging at any time now. The methods outlined in this work demonstrate that the \textit{Roman} Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will be able to securely measure low-mass host stars in the bulge.

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arXiv2024

CuRIOS-ED: The Technology Demonstrator for the CubeSats for Rapid Infrared and Optical Surveys Mission

The rise of time-domain astronomy including electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational waves, gravitational microlensing, explosive phenomena, and even astrometry with Gaia, are showing the power and need for surveys with high-cadence, large area, and long time baselines to study the transient universe. A constellation of SmallSats or CubeSats providing wide, instantaneous sky coverage down to 21 Vega mag at optical wavelengths would be ideal for addressing this need. We are assembling CuRIOS-ED (CubeSats for Rapid Infrared and Optical Survey--Exploration Demo), an optical telescope payload which will act as a technology demonstrator for a larger constellation of several hundred 16U CubeSats known as CuRIOS. In preparation for CuRIOS, CuRIOS-ED will launch in late 2025 as part of the 12U Starspec InspireSat MVP payload. CuRIOS-ED will be used to demonstrate the StarSpec ADCS pointing capabilities to <1" and to space-qualify a commercial camera package for use on the full CuRIOS payload. The CuRIOS-ED camera system will utilize a Sony IMX455 CMOS detector delivered in an off-the-shelf Atik apx60 package which we modified to be compatible with operations in vacuum as well as the CubeSat form factor, power, and thermal constraints. By qualifying this commercial camera solution, the cost of each CuRIOS satellite will be greatly decreased (~100x) when compared with current space-qualified cameras with IMX455 detectors. We discuss the CuRIOS-ED mission design with an emphasis on the disassembly, repackaging, and testing of the Atik apx60 for space-based missions. Characterization of the apx60's read noise, dark current, patterned noise, and thermal behavior are reported for a range of temperatures (-35 C to 40 C) and exposure times (0.001s to 30 s). Additionally, we comment on preliminary environmental testing results from a successful thermal vacuum test.

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arXiv2024

An Earth-Mass Planet and a Brown Dwarf in Orbit Around a White Dwarf

Terrestrial planets born beyond 1-3 AU have been theorized to avoid being engulfed during the red-giant phases of their host stars. Nevertheless, only a few gas-giant planets have been observed around white dwarfs (WDs) -- the end product left behind by a red giant. Here we report on evidence that the lens system that produced the microlensing event KMT-2020-BLG-0414 is composed of a WD orbited by an Earth-mass planet and a brown dwarf (BD) companion, as shown by the non-detection of the lens flux using Keck Adaptive Optics (AO). From microlensing orbital motion constraints, we determine the planet to be a $1.9\pm0.2$ Earth-mass ($M_\oplus$) planet at a physical separation of $2.1\pm0.2$ au from the WD during the event. By considering the system evolutionary history, we determine the BD companion to have a projected separation of 22 au from the WD, and reject an alternative model that places the BD at 0.2 au. Given planetary orbital expansion during the final evolutionary stages of the host star, this Earth-mass planet may have existed in an initial orbit close to 1 au, thereby offering a glimpse into the possible survival of planet Earth in the distant future.

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arXiv2024

Investigating the mixing between two black hole populations in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA GWTC-3

We introduce a population model to analyze the mixing between hypothesised power-law and $\sim 35 M_\odot$ Gaussian bump black hole populations in the latest gravitational wave catalog, GWTC-3, estimating their co-location and separation. We find a relatively low level of mixing, $3.1^{+5.0}_{-3.1}\%$, between the power-law and Gaussian populations, compared to the percentage of mergers containing two Gaussian bump black holes, $5.0^{+3.2}_{-1.7}\%$. Our analysis indicates that black holes within the Gaussian bump are generally separate from the power-law population, with only a minor fraction engaging in mixing and contributing to the $\mathcal{M} \sim 14 M_\odot$ peak in the chirp mass. This leads us to identify a distinct population of Binary Gaussian Black Holes (BGBHs) that arise from mergers within the Gaussian bump. We suggest that current theories for the formation of the massive $35 M_\odot$ Gaussian bump population may need to reevaluate the underlying mechanisms that drive the preference for BGBHs.

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arXiv2024

Unveiling MOA-2007-BLG-192: An M Dwarf Hosting a Likely Super-Earth

We present an analysis of high angular resolution images of the microlensing target MOA-2007-BLG-192 using Keck adaptive optics and the Hubble Space Telescope. The planetary host star is robustly detected as it separates from the background source star in nearly all of the Keck and Hubble data. The amplitude and direction of the lens-source separation allows us to break a degeneracy related to the microlensing parallax and source radius crossing time. Thus, we are able to reduce the number of possible solutions by a factor of ${\sim}2$, demonstrating the power of high angular resolution follow-up imaging for events with sparse light curve coverage. Following Bennett et al. 2023, we apply constraints from the high resolution imaging on the light curve modeling to find host star and planet masses of $M_{\textrm{host}} = 0.28 \pm 0.04M_{\odot}$ and $m_p = 12.49^{+65.47}_{-8.03}M_{\oplus}$ at a distance from Earth of $D_L = 2.16 \pm 0.30\,$kpc. This work illustrates the necessity for the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) to use its own high resolution imaging to inform light curve modeling for microlensing planets that the mission discovers.

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arXiv2024

Keck and Hubble Observations Show That MOA-2008-BLG-379Lb Is a Super-Jupiter Orbiting an M Dwarf

We present high angular resolution imaging that detects the MOA-2008-BLG-379L exoplanet host star using Keck adaptive optics and the Hubble Space Telescope. These observations reveal host star and planet masses of $M_{\rm host}=0.434\pm0.065 M_\odot$, and $m_p=2.44 \pm 0.49 M_{\rm Jupiter}$. They are located at a distance of $D_L=3.44\pm0.53\,$kpc, with a projected separation of $2.70\pm 0.42\,$AU. These results contribute to our determination of exoplanet host star masses for the Suzuki et al. (2016) statistical sample, which will determine the dependence of the planet occurrence rate on the mass and distance of the host stars. We also present a detailed discussion of the image constrained modeling version of the eesunhong light curve modeling code that applies high angular resolution image constraints to the light curve modeling process. This code increases modeling efficiency by a large factor by excluding models that are inconsistent with the high angular resolution images. The analysis of this and other events from the Suzuki et al. (2016) statistical sample reveals the importance of including higher order effects, such as microlensing parallax and planetary orbital motion even when these features are not required to fit the light curve data. The inclusion of these effects may be needed to obtain accurate estimates of the uncertainty of other microlensing parameters that affect the inferred properties of exoplanet microlens systems. This will be important for the exoplanet microlensing survey of the Roman Space Telescope, which will use both light curve photometry and high angular resolution imaging to characterize planetary microlens systems.

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arXiv2024

Recommendations for Early Definition Science with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman), NASA's next flagship observatory, has significant mission time to be spent on surveys for general astrophysics in addition to its three core community surveys. We considered what types of observations outside the core surveys would most benefit from early definition, given 700 hours of mission time in the first two years of Roman's operation. We recommend that a survey of the Galactic plane be defined early, based on the broad range of stakeholders for such a survey, the added scientific value of a first pass to obtain a baseline for proper motions complementary to Gaia's, and the significant potential synergies with ground-based surveys, notably the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on Rubin. We also found strong motivation to follow a community definition process for ultra-deep observations with Roman.

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arXiv2024

Astrometric Microlensing by Primordial Black Holes with The Roman Space Telescope

Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) could explain some fraction of dark matter and shed light on many areas of early-universe physics. Despite over half a century of research interest, a PBH population has so far eluded detection. The most competitive constraints on the fraction of dark matter comprised of PBHs ($f_{\rm DM}$) in the $(10^{-9}-10)M_{\odot}$ mass-ranges come from photometric microlensing and bound $f_{\rm DM}\lesssim10^{-2}-10^{-1}$. With the advent of the Roman Space Telescope with its sub-milliarcsecond (mas) astrometric capabilities and its planned Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), detecting astrometric microlensing signatures will become routine. Compared with photometric microlensing, astrometric microlensing signals are sensitive to different lens masses-distance configurations and contains different information, making it a complimentary lensing probe. At sub-mas astrometric precision, astrometric microlensing signals are typically detectable at larger lens-source separations than photometric signals, suggesting a microlensing detection channel of pure astrometric events. We use a Galactic simulation to predict the number of detectable microlensing events during the GBTDS via this pure astrometric microlensing channel. Assuming an absolute astrometric precision floor for bright stars of 0.1 mas for the GBTDS, we find that the number of detectable events peaks at $\approx 10^{3} f_{\rm DM}$ for a population of $ 1 M_{\odot}$ PBHs and tapers to $\approx 10f_{\rm DM}$ and $\approx 100f_{\rm DM}$ at $10^{-4}M_{\odot}$ and $10^{3}M_{\odot}$, respectively. Accounting for the distinguishability of PBHs from Stellar lenses, we conclude the GBTDS will be sensitive to a PBH population at $f_{\rm DM}$ down to $\approx10^{-1}-10^{-3}$ for $(10^{-1}-10^{2})M_{\odot}$ likely yielding novel PBH constraints.

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arXiv2024

An Estimate of the Binary Star Fraction Among Young Stars at the Galactic Center: Possible Evidence of a Radial Dependence

We present the first estimate of the intrinsic binary fraction of young stars across the central $\approx$ 0.4 pc surrounding the supermassive black hole (SMBH) at the Milky Way Galactic center (GC). This experiment searched for photometric variability in 102 young stars, using 119 nights of 10"-wide adaptive optics imaging observations taken at Keck Observatory over 16 years in the K'- and H-bands. We photometrically detected three binary stars, all of which are situated more than 1" (0.04 pc) from the SMBH and one of which, S2-36, is newly reported here with spectroscopic confirmation. To convert the observed binary fraction into an estimate of the underlying binary fraction, we determined experiment sensitivity through detailed light curve simulations, incorporating photometric effects of eclipses, irradiation, and tidal distortion in binaries. The simulations assumed a population of young binaries, with stellar ages (4 Myr) and masses matched to the most probable values measured for the GC young star population and underlying binary system parameters similar to those of local massive stars. The detections and simulations imply young, massive stars in the GC have a stellar binary fraction $\geq$ 71% (68% confidence), or $\geq$ 42% (95% confidence). This inferred GC young star binary fraction is consistent with that typically seen in young stellar populations in the solar neighborhood. Furthermore, our measured binary fraction is significantly higher than that recently reported by Chu et al. (2023) based on RV measurements of young stars <~1" of the SMBH. Constrained with these two studies, the probability that the same underlying young binary fraction extends across the entire region is <1.4%. This tension provides support for a radial dependence of the binary star fraction and, therefore, for the dynamical predictions of binary merger and evaporation events close to the SMBH.

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arXiv2023

Disentangling the Black Hole Mass Spectrum with Photometric Microlensing Surveys

From the formation mechanisms of stars and compact objects to nuclear physics, modern astronomy frequently leverages surveys to understand populations of objects to answer fundamental questions. The population of dark and isolated compact objects in the Galaxy contains critical information related to many of these topics, but is only practically accessible via gravitational microlensing. However, photometric microlensing observables are degenerate for different types of lenses, and one can seldom classify an event as involving either a compact object or stellar lens on its own. To address this difficulty, we apply a Bayesian framework that treats lens type probabilistically and jointly with a lens population model. This method allows lens population characteristics to be inferred despite intrinsic uncertainty in the lens-class of any single event. We investigate this method's effectiveness on a simulated ground-based photometric survey in the context of characterizing a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs) with an average mass of $30 M_{\odot}$. On simulated data, our method outperforms current black hole (BH) lens identification pipelines and characterizes different subpopulations of lenses while jointly constraining the PBH contribution to dark matter to ${\approx}25$\%. Key to robust inference, our method can marginalize over population model uncertainty. We find the lower mass cutoff for stellar origin BHs, a key observable in understanding the BH mass gap, particularly difficult to infer in our simulations. This work lays the foundation for cutting-edge PBH abundance constraints to be extracted from current photometric microlensing surveys.

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