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Jiaxuan You

Publications and source records attributed to Jiaxuan You.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

Can Large Language Models Forecast What Researchers Study Next?

Large language models increasingly generate research ideas, yet judging their novelty or feasibility at generation time does not establish whether they anticipate subsequent work. We introduce IdeaForecastBench to evaluate research idea forecasting. Given a community's literature up to a cutoff, a system produces up to five ranked ideas, which are evaluated against later papers. The benchmark comprises 624 rolling episodes across 52 topics, with a fixed retrieve-then-judge protocol and separately reported results from two judges. We compare five history-compression strategies across GPT-4.1, Qwen2.5-7B/14B, and Qwen3.5-9B, together with a learned Mode-Decomposition Forecaster (MDF). Under the primary GPT-4.1-mini judge, Summary improves on Direct in Hit@5 and Precision@5 across all four backbones. Qwen2.5 scores above GPT-4.1, whereas Qwen3.5 scores below it. An outcome-blind assessment finds that Qwen2.5 produces broader forecasts, but does not identify how much breadth contributes to its advantage. Threshold and judge diagnostics further clarify the limits of interpreting realization as precise anticipation. IdeaForecastBench provides a common task for studying which research ideas a community subsequently pursues and how reliably this outcome can be measured.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

ArtifactLinker: Linking Scientific Artifacts for Automatic State-of-the-Art Discovery

Scientific artifacts such as models and datasets are foundations for research. With the rapid growth of platforms like HuggingFace, researchers now have access to a large number of artifacts. Yet, a key challenge remains: how can we automatically discover the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model for a given dataset by fully leveraging existing artifacts? We formalize this task as automatic SOTA discovery by modeling HuggingFace as an artifact graph, where nodes are models/datasets and edges represent evaluations. We propose ArtifactLinker, a two-stage framework: (1) ranking promising unobserved model--dataset links using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) or graph-augmented Large Language Models (LLMs), and (2) verifying top-ranked links via coding experiments with LLM-based agents. We further introduce a benchmark named ArtifactBench with 14,053 artifacts and 51,337 relations to evaluate the performance of both stages. Results show that (1) graph structures between existing artifacts are effective for missing link prediction; (2) end-to-end ranking and verification with ArtifactLinker help discover potential SOTA results and research insights.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

LLMRouter: Unified Infrastructure for Developing, Evaluating, and Deploying LLM Routers

No single large language model (LLM) is optimal across all queries and budget constraints, making model routing essential for cost-effective deployment. Existing routers adopt diverse formulations and implementations, making fair comparison and extension difficult. We present a unified formulation of LLM routing as a sequential decision process characterized by five components: context encoders, model encoders, scoring functions, decision rules, and learning signals, covering single-turn, multi-turn, and personalized routing. Based on this formulation, we develop an automated pipeline for constructing routing supervision and evaluating routers jointly on response quality and inference cost. The resulting benchmark, xRouteBench, spans generic LLM, memory-augmented, vision, time-series, and personalized routing tasks. We further introduce LLMRouter, an open-source modular infrastructure with more than 16 representative routers. Our empirical study shows that learned routers outperform the strongest fixed-model baseline by 14.6% relatively, lightweight routers become more competitive under tight cost constraints, and user-conditioned routing consistently improves personalization.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

A Survey of Agent Memory in the Second Half: Towards Self-Evolving and Long-Horizon Agents

Research in artificial intelligence is shifting from model innovations and benchmark scores towards problem definition and rigorous real-world evaluation. As the field enters the "second half," the central challenge becomes real utility in long-horizon, dynamic, and user-dependent settings such as agentic coding, deep research, and computer use, where LLM-based agents face context explosion beyond fixed context windows and must continuously accumulate, manage, and selectively reuse information across extended interactions. Memory, with hundreds of papers released in 2025, therefore emerges as the critical solution to fill this utility gap. Beyond passive storage, memory is increasingly the substrate through which agents self-evolve: short-term memory gates which experiences are perceived and abstracted during execution, while long-term memory consolidates them into reusable knowledge and skills, forming the loop through which agents improve from their own experience. In this survey, we provide a unified view of foundation agent memory along three dimensions: memory substrate (internal parametric state and external retrieval-augmented stores), cognitive mechanism (sensory, working, episodic, semantic, and procedural), and memory subject (user-centric personalization and agent-centric experience). We then analyze how memory is operated under single- and multi-agent topologies and highlight learning policies over memory operations, showing how memory management itself is becoming a trainable capability spanning reinforcement-learned context curation, experience consolidation at decision time, and the emerging ecosystem of portable, shareable agent skills. Finally, we review evaluation benchmarks and metrics for memory utility, and outline open challenges and future directions.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

AgentDebugX: An Open-Source Toolkit for Failure Observability, Attribution, and Recovery in LLM Agents

LLM agent failures are difficult to debug because the step where an error surfaces is often not the one that caused it. Existing observability tools replay execution traces but provide little support for identifying the root cause or translating diagnosis into recovery. We present AgentDebugX, an open-source debugging framework that organizes debugging as a closed loop of Detect, Attribute, Recover, and Rerun. At its core, DeepDebug performs multi-turn root-cause diagnosis through global trajectory understanding, structure-guided investigation, and cross-examination. On the Who and When benchmark, DeepDebug achieves the best strict attribution accuracy among the evaluated methods on both tested open-weight backbones, reaching 28.8 percent exact agent-and-step accuracy on qwen3.5-9b versus 21.7 percent for the strongest single-pass baseline. On GAIA, DeepDebug repairs 13 of 73 failed tasks in a single rerun, compared with 4 to 6 for three decoupled self-correction baselines, improving overall accuracy from 55.8 percent to 63.6 percent. AgentDebugX exposes this workflow through a Python library, CLI, web console, and installable agentic skill, and provides an opt-in Error Hub for sharing scrubbed failure-diagnosis-repair bundles and reusing them as debugging memory.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

OpenTinker: Separating Concerns in Agentic Reinforcement Learning

We introduce \textsc{OpenTinker}, an open infrastructure for training large language model (LLM) agents with many LoRA-backed policies over shared execution resources. Modern agent workloads mix supervised fine-tuning (SFT), online reinforcement learning (RL), rollout generation, validation, and multi-turn environment interaction. In such workloads, LoRA adapters are not static inference artifacts: they are frequently updated policy states whose optimizer state, rollout snapshot, and training data attribution must remain consistent. \textsc{OpenTinker} centers the runtime around this policy lifecycle. Users define environments, agents, and learning objectives, while the system manages training clients, rollout samplers, checkpoint handles, and policy-version refresh. The same data path supports SFT and RL by converting trajectories into token sequences with explicit masks: context and environment observations condition the model, while generated action tokens carry supervised weights or RL advantages. This design enables multi-LoRA SFT/RL training in which many users, tasks, or agents can share a base model while keeping adapter updates, checkpoints, and rollout snapshots isolated. We describe the system architecture, the adapter lifecycle, the service-backed snapshot handoff used by the current implementation, the backend contract for mixed-adapter rollout kernels, and the training scheduler that isolates adapter-local gradients and optimizer state. Representative validation tasks exercise single-turn, multi-turn, LoRA, and multi-agent agentic training.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Multi-Turn Agentic Scientific Literature Search via Workflow Induction

Scientific literature search often requires more than retrieving papers from a single query: users' intents are underspecified, preference-dependent, and evolve through interaction. Existing search agents typically rely on fixed pipelines or implicit language-only reasoning, making their search strategies difficult to control, inspect, and refine. We introduce PaperPilot, a multi-turn literature search agent that frames scientific search as workflow induction. Given an anchor paper and a user query, PaperPilot constructs an executable DAG of paper-search operators, including keyword search, citation expansion, filtering, scoring, reranking, and evidence extraction. User feedback is then used to refine both the query and the workflow itself. We train PaperPilot with supervised workflow imitation and preference optimization over controlled workflow corruptions. Experiments show that PaperPilot-9B improves over the base Qwen3.5-9B toolset agent under multi-turn interaction, increasing Hit@5 from 58.0 to 77.0, MRR from 47.5 to 59.4, and nDCG@10 from 26.8 to 32.5, while reducing workflow execution errors from 9.5% to 0%. These results show that explicit, editable search workflows provide an effective and controllable interface for aligning literature search agents with complex scientific intent.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

FusionFactory: Fusing LLM Capabilities with Multi-LLM Log Data

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has created a diverse landscape of models, each excelling at different tasks. This diversity drives researchers to employ multiple LLMs in practice, leaving behind valuable multi-LLM log data. This naturally leads to the question of whether such logs can be fully leveraged to fuse LLMs' complementary capabilities. Although prior work has explored various strategies for integrating multiple LLMs, we argue that practical fusion must meet two essential requirements: (1) compatibility with real-world serving scenarios (e.g., local and API-based serving), and (2) flexibility to operate at different stages of the LLM pipeline to meet varied user needs (e.g., fine-tuning and inference stages). To this end, we introduce LLMFusionBench, a large-scale benchmark for LLM fusion that spans 14 tasks across five domains, with responses from 20 open-source LLMs (8B--671B) totaling 103M tokens. Building on LLMFusionBench, we propose FusionFactory, a systematic framework with three elaborated levels: (1) query-level fusion via tailored LLM routers, (2) thought-level fusion leveraging retrieved abstract reasoning templates, and (3) model-level fusion via distillation from top-ranked responses. Experiments show that FusionFactory consistently outperforms the best individual LLM across all 14 benchmarks, with the optimal fusion configuration varying across benchmarks, highlighting the promise of multi-LLM log data as a practical foundation for fusing diverse LLM capabilities.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

EventConnector: Mining Social Event Relations through Temporal Graphs

Understanding and retrieving related real-world events based on their temporal dynamics is a fundamental challenge in time-sensitive applications such as forecasting, information retrieval, and social analysis. Existing methods often rely on semantic similarity or global time-series alignment, which overlook the transient and directional dependencies that frequently underlie real-world correlations. In this work, we introduce \textit{EventConnector}, a framework that constructs a temporal event graph capturing localized co-fluctuations and lead-lag relationships between events through their time-series trajectories. We further propose \textbf{EC-Fusion}, an adaptive retrieval mechanism that fuses EventConnector's graph-based scores with a complementary Granger-causal signal via a graph-quality-aware mixing weight. Across two real-world prediction market benchmarks (Polymarket and Kalshi) and nine forecasting architectures evaluated over three random seeds, EC-Fusion is the best non-oracle retrieval method on $17/18$ model--dataset cells, reducing RMSE by $6.87\%$ on average (up to $10.86\%$) over the strongest comparable retrieval baseline, with statistical significance at $p < 0.01$ after Holm--Bonferroni correction. These results highlight the effectiveness of temporally grounded graph modeling, augmented with causal-signal fusion, in capturing latent event relationships beyond what semantic similarity or traditional alignment techniques can offer.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2026

Building Social World Models with Large Language Models

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events -- from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs -- remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs' commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events? In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing the evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations linking events to belief shifts, or for expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-bench, derived from real-world prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-bench includes over 12k data points for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, finance, and cryptocurrency. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on Kalshi data and demonstrating competitive performance on Polymarket data, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

cs.SI↗
arXiv2026

ProtocolBench: Which LLM MultiAgent Protocol to Choose?

As large-scale multi-agent systems evolve, the communication protocol layer has become a critical yet under-evaluated factor shaping performance and reliability. Despite the existence of diverse protocols (A2A, ACP, ANP, Agora, etc.), selection is often intuition-driven and lacks standardized guidance. We introduce ProtocolBench, a benchmark that systematically compares agent protocols along four measurable axes: task success, end-to-end latency, message or byte overhead, and robustness under failures. On ProtocolBench, protocol choice significantly influences system behavior. In the Streaming Queue scenario, overall completion time varies by up to 36.5% across protocols, and mean end-to-end latency differs by 3.48 s. Under Fail-Storm Recovery, resilience also differs consistently across protocols. Beyond evaluation, we present ProtocolRouter, a learnable protocol router that selects per-scenario (or per-module) protocols from requirement and runtime signals. ProtocolRouter reduces Fail-Storm recovery time by up to 18.1% versus the best single-protocol baseline, and achieves scenario-specific gains such as higher success in GAIA. We also release ProtocolRouterBench to standardize protocol evaluation and improve reliability at scale.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

$Ψ$-Bench: Evaluating Persona-Sensitive Influencing in Persuasive Dialogues

Personalization is a crucial capability of modern language agents. However, current research primarily positions personalized agents as passive responders to user preferences, limiting their ability to interact with users and provide suggestions or guidance proactively. To systematically evaluate such proactive personalization in realistic interactions, we propose $Ψ$-Bench, a benchmark for assessing LLMs' ability to influence realistic users through conversation. We design three real-world interaction scenarios that involve persuasion in $Ψ$-Bench, and endow simulated clients with personal characteristics through explicit user profiles derived from dialogue histories. We evaluate 10 frontier LLMs on $Ψ$-Bench and find that while most models can produce coherent and reasonable arguments, even state-of-the-art models still leave considerable room for improvement in persuasion. We also find that providing access to client profiles yields an average performance gain of 18.24\%, highlighting the importance of user-specific information for effective persuasion. Overall, our work highlights persona-sensitive influencing as a challenging yet practical direction for evaluating and developing more proactive personalized LLM agents. Codes are available at: https://github.com/Hanpx20/Psi-Bench.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ToMAP: Training Opponent-Aware LLM Persuaders with Theory of Mind

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promising potential in persuasion, but existing works on training LLM persuaders are still preliminary. Notably, while humans are skilled in modeling their opponent's thoughts and opinions proactively and dynamically, current LLMs struggle with such Theory of Mind (ToM) reasoning, resulting in limited diversity and opponent awareness. To address this limitation, we introduce Theory of Mind Augmented Persuader (ToMAP), a novel approach for building more flexible persuader agents by incorporating two theory of mind modules that enhance the persuader's awareness and analysis of the opponent's mental state. Specifically, we begin by prompting the persuader to consider possible objections to the target central claim, and then use a text encoder paired with a trained MLP classifier to predict the opponent's current stance on these counterclaims. Our carefully designed reinforcement learning schema enables the persuader learns how to analyze opponent-related information and utilize it to generate more effective arguments. Experiments show that the ToMAP persuader, while containing only 3B parameters, outperforms much larger baselines, like GPT-4o, with a relative gain of 39.4% across multiple persuadee models and diverse corpora. Notably, ToMAP exhibits complex reasoning chains and reduced repetition during training, which leads to more diverse and effective arguments. The opponent-aware feature of ToMAP also makes it suitable for long conversations and enables it to employ more logical and opponent-aware strategies. These results underscore our method's effectiveness and highlight its potential for developing more persuasive language agents. Code is available at: https://github.com/ulab-uiuc/ToMAP.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

ExpWeaver: LLM Agents Learn from Experience via Latent RAG

Experience learning has achieved promising results in enhancing LLM agent planning and reasoning by integrating past interactions as reusable knowledge. However, existing methods remain confined to explicit text space, retrieving experiences via semantic similarity and concatenating them into the context window, leading to substantial token overhead and a decoupled architecture that separates retrieval from generation. To address these limitations, we propose ExpWeaver, a framework that enables LLM agents to learn from experience via latent retrieval-augmented generation, without requiring a separate RAG module. ExpWeaver encodes experiences using the LLM's own hidden states, retrieves relevant experiences directly in latent space at each decoding step, and integrates them through cross-attention aggregation and gated residual mechanisms. The entire pipeline is optimized end-to-end with reinforcement learning, supporting both generative and ranking tasks. We evaluate ExpWeaver on 13 diverse tasks spanning question answering, reasoning, coding, scientific prediction, and recommendation. Results demonstrate that ExpWeaver achieves state-of-the-art performance on 12 out of 13 tasks, outperforming the strongest baseline by over 6.8%; maintains token efficiency comparable to non-retrieval baselines while text-based retrieval methods require 1.5 to 2 times more tokens; and exhibits superior cross-domain generalization, outperforming the strongest baseline by 16.32% under zero-shot transfer and 15.21% under few-shot transfer. Our code for ExpWeaver is released at https://github.com/ulab-uiuc/ExpWeaver.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Relational In-Context Learning via Synthetic Pre-training with Structural Prior

Relational Databases (RDBs) are the backbone of modern business, yet they lack foundation models comparable to those in text or vision. A key obstacle is that high-quality RDBs are private, scarce, and structurally heterogeneous, making internet-scale pre-training infeasible. To overcome this data scarcity, we introduce RDB-PFN, the first relational foundation model trained purely via synthetic data. Inspired by Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs), where synthetic data generated from Structural Causal Models (SCMs) enables reasoning on single tables, we design a Relational Prior Generator to create an infinite stream of diverse RDBs from scratch. Pre-training on over 2 million synthetic single-table and relational tasks, RDB-PFN learns to adapt to any new database instantly via genuine in-context learning. Experiments show that RDB-PFN achieves strong few-shot performance on 19 real-world relational prediction tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art tabular foundation models evaluated on the same DFS-linearized inputs, while using a lightweight architecture and fast inference. The code is available at https://github.com/MuLabPKU/RDBPFN.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Learning Query-Aware Budget-Tier Routing for Runtime Agent Memory

Memory is increasingly central to Large Language Model (LLM) agents operating beyond a single context window, yet most existing systems rely on offline, query-agnostic memory construction that can be inefficient and may discard query-critical information. Although runtime memory utilization is a natural alternative, prior work often incurs substantial overhead and offers limited explicit control over the performance-cost trade-off. In this work, we present \textbf{BudgetMem}, a runtime agent memory framework for explicit, query-aware performance-cost control. BudgetMem structures memory processing as a set of memory modules, each offered in three budget tiers (i.e., \textsc{Low}/\textsc{Mid}/\textsc{High}). A lightweight router performs budget-tier routing across modules to balance task performance and memory construction cost, which is implemented as a compact neural policy trained with reinforcement learning. Using BudgetMem as a unified testbed, we study three complementary strategies for realizing budget tiers: implementation (method complexity), reasoning (inference behavior), and capacity (module model size). Across LoCoMo, LongMemEval, and HotpotQA, BudgetMem surpasses strong baselines when performance is prioritized (i.e., high-budget setting), and delivers better accuracy-cost frontiers under tighter budgets. Moreover, our analysis disentangles the strengths and weaknesses of different tiering strategies, clarifying when each axis delivers the most favorable trade-offs under varying budget regimes.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

LRanker: LLM Ranker for Massive Candidates

Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown strong potential for ranking by capturing semantic relevance and adapting across diverse domains, yet existing methods remain constrained by limited context length and high computational costs, restricting their applicability to real-world scenarios where candidate pools often scale to millions. To address this challenge, we propose LRanker, a framework tailored for large-candidate ranking. LRanker incorporates a candidate aggregation encoder that leverages K-means clustering to explicitly model global candidate information, and a graph-based test-time scaling mechanism that partitions candidates into subsets, generates multiple query embeddings, and integrates them through an ensemble procedure. By aggregating diverse embeddings instead of relying on a single representation, this mechanism enhances robustness and expressiveness, leading to more accurate ranking over massive candidate pools. We evaluate LRanker on seven tasks across three scenarios in RBench with different candidate scales. Experimental results show that LRanker achieves over 30% gains in the RBench-Small scenario, improves by 3-9% in MRR in the RBench-Large scenario, and sustains scalability with 20-30% improvements in the RBench-Ultra scenario with more than 6.8M candidates. Ablation studies further verify the effectiveness of its key components. Together, these findings demonstrate the robustness, scalability, and effectiveness of LRanker for massive-candidate ranking.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2026

Probing the Knowledge Boundary: An Interactive Agentic Framework for Deep Knowledge Extraction

Large Language Models (LLMs) can be seen as compressed knowledge bases, but it remains unclear what knowledge they truly contain and how far their knowledge boundary extends. Existing benchmarks are mostly static and provide limited support for systematic knowledge probing. In this paper, we propose an interactive agentic framework to systematically extract and quantify the knowledge of LLMs. Our method includes four adaptive exploration policies to probe knowledge at different granularity. To ensure the quality of extracted knowledge, we introduce a three-stage knowledge processing pipeline that combines vector-based filtering to remove strict duplicates, LLM-based adjudication to resolve ambiguous semantic overlap, and domain relevance auditing to retain valid knowledge units. Through extensive experiments, we find that Recursive Taxonomy is the most effective exploration strategy. We also observe a clear knowledge scaling law, where larger models consistently recover more knowledge. In addition, we identify a Pass@1 versus Pass@k trade-off: domain-specialized models achieve higher initial accuracy but experience rapid degradation, while general-purpose models maintain stable performance over extended extraction. Finally, our results show that differences in training data composition lead to distinct and measurable knowledge profiles across model families, reflecting how pretraining shapes each model's parametric knowledge.

cs.LG↗