arXiv subjects

Jingfang Fan

Publications and source records attributed to Jingfang Fan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Criticality and reduced dynamical resilience in PM2.5 pollution systems

Concentration-based metrics underpin air-quality assessment, while dynamical persistence and recovery describe how rapidly high-PM2.5 episodes dissipate and how strongly they retain memory. Here we introduce a finite-memory multiplicative reversion (FMMR) process that links the lognormal concentration backbone of PM2.5 variability with event recurrence, temporal memory, variance amplification and local dynamical resilience. Across station observations and reanalysis data, elevated PM2.5 regimes show a coherent set of critical signatures: stronger memory, rising autocorrelation, broader upper tails, amplified variance, reduced resilience and more clustered exceedance events. Together, these co-occurring signals reveal dynamical criticality in PM2.5 pollution systems, with critical slowing down expressed as a loss of restoring capacity under high-pollution conditions. A gridded comparison across populated and emission-influenced regions further shows that areas with similar PM2.5 burden can differ in recovery capacity, while eastern China has shifted toward higher resilience during recent air-quality improvements and India and West Africa occupy lower-resilience states. By identifying where pollution burden and recovery capacity diverge, these findings establish dynamical persistence and resilience as complementary dimensions of PM2.5 risk and provide a quantitative basis for resilience-oriented air-quality assessment.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Spectral condensation in a finite nonequilibrium atmospheric transition

Order parameters are difficult to define in high-dimensional nonequilibrium systems that lack a Hamiltonian, a thermodynamic limit or an observed control coordinate. Here we show that such transitions can be diagnosed from the spectrum of occupations over data-derived eigen-microstates. We combine Eigen Microstate Theory with a Marchenko--Pastur random-matrix baseline to isolate an emergent sector, whose entropy quantifies competition among statistically significant collective states. As a finite atmospheric realization, we analyse 51 sudden stratospheric warmings in ERA5. The event-aligned ensemble undergoes spectral condensation, decondensation and recondensation: a polar-vortex state dominated by a few eigen-microstates gives way to a high-entropy regime of competing emergent states before selecting a reorganized weak-vortex state. A stochastic wave--mean-flow model, in which upward wave-activity flux provides a reduced control coordinate, reproduces the same entropy maximum, collapse and top-down timing. These results identify emergent-sector entropy as an order-parameter-like, state-based spectral diagnostic for non-Hamiltonian transitions and place polar-vortex breakdown within a broader class of finite nonequilibrium phase reorganizations.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Long-Range Order in Coupled $D$-dimensional Kuramoto Oscillators

We show that the long-range order (LRO) strikingly emerges in systems of locally coupled $D$-dimensional vector Kuramoto oscillators on low-dimensional lattices ($d=1,2$), but only for odd $D$. This parity-dependent effect is traced to two-oscillator dynamics, where odd-$D$ units synchronize for any coupling, while even-$D$ pairs require a finite threshold. This fundamental difference selectively seeds collective order in large-scale systems, a phenomenon demonstrated by our numerical simulations. A renormalization group analysis reveals a RG flow to a weak-coupling fixed point for $d \le 2$. In this limit, odd-$D$ systems effectively map to a ferromagnetic model, developing an ordered ``hemisphere" phase, whereas even-$D$ systems remain disordered. Our findings further reveal orientational LRO emerges in both $d=1$ and $d=2$, but frequency LRO requires $d=2$. We contrast these results with the established behavior of models possessing continuous symmetry, highlighting how quenched disorder provides a fundamentally new route to order.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2026

Planetary climate interactions of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), Earth's "Third Pole", profoundly shapes the Asian monsoon and regional climate and exerts far-reaching influence on the global climate system. Yet its role in organizing planetary-scale climate interactions remains poorly quantified. Here we develop a climate network framework to explicitly resolve the planetary teleconnection architecture associated with the QTP across historical observations and future climate projections, with physical consistency assessed using Lagrangian trajectory diagnostics and targeted numerical experiments. We uncover a persistent and directional interaction structure linking the QTP with multiple major climate tipping elements. In particular, we identify a robust tripolar interaction mode coupling the QTP with both the Arctic and Antarctica through coherent atmospheric-oceanic pathways. Our findings establish the QTP as a critical planetary climate integrator, revealing a significant blind spot in current climate models and risk frameworks regarding cascading tipping dynamics in a warming world.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Forecasting Return Time of Extreme Precipitation by Large Deviation Theory

Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau distribution, originally introduced in plasma physics, accurately captures extreme precipitation at approximately 93% of global locations, outperforming conventional extreme value distributions with 76% matched locations under the same accuracy criterion. Enriching rare event samples by the fitted Landau distribution, we obtain more accurate estimates of large deviation rate functions and return times, enabling forecasts beyond historically observed precipitation intensities. Mapping historical return times to future projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we show that return time curves under different emission scenarios collapse onto a unified relation, revealing a sharply increased lifetime exposure to extreme precipitation for 21st-century birth cohorts under most future emission scenarios.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2026

A Regime Shift in Atlantic Surface Currents Reveals a Step-like Decline of the Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly understood. Here we identify a previously unrecognized basin scale phase of Atlantic surface circulation, termed the Atlantic Convergence Divergence Mode (ACDM), characterized by a convergence divergence pattern in the North Atlantic and coherent meridional flows in the South Atlantic. We show that the ACDM experienced a pronounced regime shift in 2009, marked by weakened vertical water exchange and reduced meridional transport. This transition closely coincides with direct RAPID MOCHA AMOC observations and is driven by AMOC modulated multicale forcing: a low frequency oceanic thermal reorganization that preconditions the system, and episodic atmospheric shocks that trigger the shift. By identifying the ACDM variability as a sensitive and physically grounded proxy for interannual AMOC fluctuations, we reveal that the observed 2009 shift signifies a nonlinear, step like weakening of AMOC that triggered a fundamental basin scale reorganization of Atlantic surface currents. Our results offer a dynamical explanation for the AMOC's recent decline and demonstrate its inherently nonlinear nature, highlighting the need to account for step like transitions in assessing its stability and future evolution.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Topology enables learning-based hydrodynamic prediction of the global river system

Accurate river prediction is essential for water, food and energy security, yet remains challenging across entire river networks. Machine learning has transformed Earth-system modeling, but a system-level advance for river prediction lags for lack of reliable data. Exploiting the connectivity and dissipative dynamics of rivers, we introduce GraphRiverCast, a neural model for global river systems that predicts daily multivariate hydrodynamics at every reach of a 0.25{\deg}network with only sparse gauges and no initial state. It shows no intrinsic skill decay with lead time, outperforms leading global river models by 25% in accuracy, and robustly generalizes to ungauged reaches and finer resolutions. GraphRiverCast lifts learning-based river prediction from isolated basins to a unified global system and offers insights for machine learning in data-scarce Earth systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Climate network and complexity based ENSO forecast for 2026

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding. Recently, we have developed several statistical approaches for early ENSO forecasting, in particular, its El Ni\~no phase. The climate network-based approach allows forecasting the onset of an El Ni\~no event or its absence about 1 year ahead [1]. The complexity-based approach allows additionally to forecast the magnitude of an upcoming El Ni\~no event in the calendar year before the onset [2]. Additionally, we have developed methods for forecasting the type (Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific) of an El Ni\~no [3] and for probabilistic forecasting of La Ni\~na and neutral events [4], also by the end of the calendar year before the event. Here we present the forecasts of these methods for 2026. The climate network and the complexity-based approach do not provide concurring signals for this year. The combined forecast indicates that a neutral event is more likely than an El Ni\~no. If an El Ni\~no develops in 2026, the complexity-based approach predicts a weaker event with a magnitude of $0.84\pm0.36${\deg}C.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

The Interdecadal Bipolar Oscillation: An Atmospheric Water Vapor Mode Driving Asynchronous Polar Climate Change

Climate change is progressing asynchronously between the Arctic and Antarctic, with important implications for global climate dynamics. While the Arctic has experienced rapid warming and pronounced amplification, the Antarctic has exhibited a delayed and heterogeneous response. Here, we identify an Interdecadal Bipolar Oscillation (IBO) in atmospheric water vapor, a coherent internal mode of variability that connects the two polar regions and helps explain their divergent climate trajectories over the past eight decades. Using reanalysis data alongside historical and pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP6, we demonstrate that the IBO is a robust internal variability mode with a quasi-period of 60 ~ 80 years. This oscillation modulates the background warming signal, with a phase shift in the late 1980s amplifying moistening and warming in the Arctic while concurrently suppressing changes in the Antarctic. Crucially, model projections suggest a possible phase reversal, which could slow water vapor increases in the Arctic while accelerating them in the Antarctic, potentially marking the start of rapid Antarctic climate change. While uncertainties remain in how climate models capture polar water vapor, our findings highlight the IBO as a pivotal driver of polar climate evolution and a potential contributor to emerging climate risks in the Southern Hemisphere.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Long-term prediction of ENSO with physics-guided Deep Echo State Networks

The El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that operates on physically interpretable climate modes selected from the extended recharge oscillator (XRO) framework. DESN achieves skillful Ni\~{n}o3.4 predictions up to 16-20 months ahead with minimal computational cost. Mechanistic experiments show that extended predictability arises from nonlinear coupling between warm water volume and inter-basin climate modes. Error-growth analysis further indicates a finite ENSO predictability horizon of approximately 30 months. These results demonstrate that physics-guided reservoir computing provides an efficient and interpretable framework for diagnosing and predicting ENSO at long lead times.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Physics-Guided Inductive Spatiotemporal Kriging for PM2.5 with Satellite Gradient Constraints

High-resolution mapping of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a cornerstone of sustainable urbanism but remains critically hindered by the spatial sparsity of ground monitoring networks. While traditional data-driven methods attempt to bridge this gap using satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), they often suffer from severe, non-random data missingness (e.g., due to cloud cover or nighttime) and inversion biases. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes the Spatiotemporal Physics-Guided Inference Network (SPIN), a novel framework designed for inductive spatiotemporal kriging. Unlike conventional approaches, SPIN synergistically integrates domain knowledge into deep learning by explicitly modeling physical advection and diffusion processes via parallel graph kernels. Crucially, we introduce a paradigm-shifting training strategy: rather than using error-prone AOD as a direct input, we repurpose it as a spatial gradient constraint within the loss function. This allows the model to learn structural pollution patterns from satellite data while remaining robust to data voids. Validated in the highly polluted Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas (BTHSA), SPIN achieves a new state-of-the-art with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 9.52 ug/m^3, effectively generating continuous, physically plausible pollution fields even in unmonitored areas. This work provides a robust, low-cost, and all-weather solution for fine-grained environmental management.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Tipping Points and Cascading Transitions: Methods, Principles, and Evidences

This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts of tipping elements, large-scale subsystems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Amazon rainforest, and classifies tipping mechanisms into bifurcation-, noise-, and rate-induced types. The article critically evaluates methods for detecting early-warning signals, particularly those based on critical slowing down, while also acknowledging their limitations and the promise of non-conventional indicators. Furthermore, we explore the significant risk of cascading failures between interacting tipping elements, often modeled using conceptual network models. This shows that such interactions can substantially increase systemic risk under global warming. The review concludes by outlining key challenges related to data limitations and methodological robustness, and emphasizes the promising role of artificial intelligence and complex network science in advancing prediction and risk assessment of Earth system tipping dynamics.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

PCDCNet: A Surrogate Model for Air Quality Forecasting with Physical-Chemical Dynamics and Constraints

Air quality forecasting (AQF) is critical for public health and environmental management, yet remains challenging due to the complex interplay of emissions, meteorology, and chemical transformations. Traditional numerical models, such as CMAQ and WRF-Chem, provide physically grounded simulations but are computationally expensive and rely on uncertain emission inventories. Deep learning models, while computationally efficient, often struggle with generalization due to their lack of physical constraints. To bridge this gap, we propose PCDCNet, a surrogate model that integrates numerical modeling principles with deep learning. PCDCNet explicitly incorporates emissions, meteorological influences, and domain-informed constraints to model pollutant formation, transport, and dissipation. By combining graph-based spatial transport modeling, recurrent structures for temporal accumulation, and representation enhancement for local interactions, PCDCNet achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in 72-hour station-level PM2.5 and O3 forecasting while significantly reducing computational costs. Furthermore, our model is deployed in an online platform, providing free, real-time air quality forecasts, demonstrating its scalability and societal impact. By aligning deep learning with physical consistency, PCDCNet offers a practical and interpretable solution for AQF, enabling informed decision-making for both personal and regulatory applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Criticality and Universality of Generalized Kuramoto Model

We explore synchronization transitions in even-$D$-dimensional generalized Kuramoto oscillators on both complete graphs and $d$-dimensional lattices. In the globally coupled system, analytical expansions of the self-consistency equations, incorporating finite-size corrections, reveal universal critical exponents $\beta = 1/2$ and $\bar{\nu} = 5/2$ for all even $D$, indicating an unconventional upper critical dimension $d_u = 5$. Extensive numerical simulations across multiple $D$ confirm these theoretical predictions. For locally coupled systems, we develop a framework based on spin-wave theory and fluctuation-resolved functional network diagnostics, which captures criticality in entrainment transition. A modified Edwards-Anderson order parameter further validates the predicted exponents. This combined theoretical and numerical study uncovers a family of universality classes characterized by $D$-independent but $d$-dependent criticality, offering a unified perspective on symmetry and dimensionality in nonequilibrium synchronization phenomena.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2025

Global Patterns of Extreme Temperature Teleconnections Using Climate Network Analysis

Extreme weather events, rare yet profoundly impactful, are often accompanied by severe conditions. Increasing global temperatures are poised to exacerbate these events, resulting in greater human casualties, economic losses, and ecological destruction. Complex global climate interactions, known as teleconnections, can lead to widespread repercussions triggered by localized extreme weather. Understanding these teleconnection patterns is crucial for weather forecasting, enhancing safety, and advancing climate science. Here, we employ climate network analysis to uncover teleconnection patterns associated with extreme temperature fluctuations, including both extreme warming and cooling events occurring on a daily basis. Our study results demonstrate that the distances of significant teleconnections initially conform to a power-law decay, signifying a decline in connectivity with distance. However, this power-law decay tendency breaks beyond a certain threshold distance, suggesting the existence of long-distance connections. Additionally, we uncover a greater prevalence of long-distance connectivity among extreme cooling events compared to extreme warming events. The global pattern of teleconnections is, in part, driven by the mechanism of Rossby waves, which serve as a rapid conduit for inducing correlated fluctuations in both pressure and temperature. These results enhance our understanding of the multiscale nature of climate teleconnections and hold significant implications for improving weather forecasting and assessing climate risks in a warming world.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Is the atmospheric river operating at a self-organized criticality state?

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are essential components of the global hydrological cycle, with profound implications for water resources, extreme weather events, and climate dynamics. Yet, the statistical organization and underlying physical mechanisms of AR intensity and evolution remain poorly understood. Here we apply methods from statistical physics to analyze the full life cycle of ARs and identify universal signatures of self-organized criticality (SOC). We demonstrate that AR morphology exhibits nontrivial fractal geometry, while AR event sizes, quantified via integrated water vapor transport, follow robust power-law distributions, displaying finite-size scaling. These scaling behaviors persist under warming scenarios, suggesting that ARs operate near a critical state as emergent, self-regulating systems. Concurrently, we observe a systematic poleward migration and intensification of ARs, linked to thermodynamic amplification and dynamical reorganization. Our findings establish a statistical physics framework for ARs, linking critical phenomena to the spatiotemporal structure of extreme events in a warming climate.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Unraveling the mystery of tropical monsoon long-term prediction

Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional dynamics, global climate drivers, and large-scale teleconnections. Here, we introduce a unified network-based framework for predicting monsoon precipitation across diverse tropical regions. By leveraging global 2-meter air temperature fields, this approach captures large-scale climate teleconnections, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Rossby waves, enabling accurate forecasts for four key monsoon systems: the South American, East Asian, African, and Indian monsoons. Our framework achieves remarkable forecasting accuracy with lead times of 4-10 months, outperforming traditional systems such as SEAS5 and CFSv2. Beyond its predictive capabilities, the framework offers flexibility for application to other regions and climate phenomena, advancing our understanding of global climate dynamics. These findings have far-reaching implications for disaster preparedness, resource management, and sustainable development.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Crossover Finite-Size Scaling Theory and Its Applications in Percolation

Finite-size scaling (FSS) for a critical phase transition ($t=0$) states that within a window of size $|t|\sim L^{-1/\nu}$, the scaling behavior of any observable $Q$ in a system of linear size $L$ asymptotically follows a scaling form as $Q(t,L)=L^{Y_Q}\tilde{Q}(tL^{1/\nu})$, where $\nu$ is the correlation-length exponent, $Y_Q$ is an FSS exponent and ${\tilde Q}(x)$ is a function of the scaled distance-to-criticality $x \equiv tL^{1/\nu}$. We systematically study the asymptotic scaling behavior of ${\tilde Q}(|x|\to\infty)$ for a broad variety of observables by requiring that the FSS and infinite-system critical behaviors match with each other in the crossover critical regime with $t \to 0$ and $|x|\to\infty$. This crossover FSS theory predicts that when the criticality is approached at a slower speed as $|t|\sim L^{-\lambda}$ with $\lambda <1/\nu$, the FSS becomes $\lambda$-dependent and the exponent can be derived. As applications, explosive percolation and high-dimensional percolation are considered. For the former, it is shown that the widely observed anomalous phenomena at the infinite-system criticality $t=0$ can be attributed to the mixing effects of the standard FSS behaviors around the pseudocritical point in an event-based ensemble. For the latter, FSS exponents are found to be different at the infinite-system critical and the pseudocritical point if free boundary conditions are used, and they are related to each other by using the crossover FSS theory. From these observations, the FSS of percolation systems falls into three classifications. Extensive simulations are carried out to affirm these predictions.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗