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Jingfang Fan

Publications and source records attributed to Jingfang Fan.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Crossover Finite-Size Scaling Theory and Its Applications in Percolation

Finite-size scaling (FSS) for a critical phase transition ($t=0$) states that within a window of size $|t|\sim L^{-1/ν}$, the scaling behavior of any observable $Q$ in a system of linear size $L$ asymptotically follows a scaling form as $Q(t,L)=L^{Y_Q}\tilde{Q}(tL^{1/ν})$, where $ν$ is the correlation-length exponent, $Y_Q$ is an FSS exponent and ${\tilde Q}(x)$ is a function of the scaled distance-to-criticality $x \equiv tL^{1/ν}$. We systematically study the asymptotic scaling behavior of ${\tilde Q}(|x|\to\infty)$ for a broad variety of observables by requiring that the FSS and infinite-system critical behaviors match with each other in the crossover critical regime with $t \to 0$ and $|x|\to\infty$. This crossover FSS theory predicts that when the criticality is approached at a slower speed as $|t|\sim L^{-λ}$ with $λ<1/ν$, the FSS becomes $λ$-dependent and the exponent can be derived. As applications, explosive percolation and high-dimensional percolation are considered. For the former, it is shown that the widely observed anomalous phenomena at the infinite-system criticality $t=0$ can be attributed to the mixing effects of the standard FSS behaviors around the pseudocritical point in an event-based ensemble. For the latter, FSS exponents are found to be different at the infinite-system critical and the pseudocritical point if free boundary conditions are used, and they are related to each other by using the crossover FSS theory. From these observations, the FSS of percolation systems falls into three classifications. Extensive simulations are carried out to affirm these predictions.

cond-mat.stat-mech

Universal Scaling of Gap Dynamics in Percolation

Percolation is a cornerstone concept in physics, providing crucial insights into critical phenomena and phase transitions. In this study, we adopt a kinetic perspective to reveal the scaling behaviors of higher-order gaps in the largest cluster across various percolation models, spanning from latticebased to network systems, encompassing both continuous and discontinuous percolation. Our results uncover an inherent self-similarity in the dynamical process both for critical and supercritical phase, characterized by two independent Fisher exponents, respectively. Utilizing a scaling ansatz, we propose a novel scaling relation that links the discovered Fisher exponents with other known critical exponents. Additionally, we demonstrate the application of our theory to real systems, showing its practical utility in extracting the corresponding Fisher exponents. These findings enrich our understanding of percolation dynamics and highlight the robust and universal scaling laws that transcend individual models and extend to broader classes of complex systems.

cond-mat.stat-mech

An inevitably aging world -- Analysis on the evolutionary pattern of age structure in 200 countries

Ignoring the differences between countries, human reproductive and dispersal behaviors can be described by some standardized models, so whether there is a universal law of population growth hidden in the abundant and unstructured data from various countries remains unclear. The age-specific population data constitute a three-dimensional tensor containing more comprehensive information. The existing literature often describes the characteristics of global or regional population evolution by subregion aggregation and statistical analysis, which makes it challenging to identify the underlying rules by ignoring national or structural details. Statistical physics can be used to summarize the macro characteristics and evolution laws of complex systems based on the attributes and motions of masses of individuals by decomposing high-dimensional tensors. Specifically, it can be used to assess the evolution of age structure in various countries over the past approximately 70 years, rather than simply focusing on the regions where aging has become apparent. It provides a universal scheme for the growing elderly and working age populations, indicating that the demographics on all continents are inevitably moving towards an aging population, including the current "young" continents of Africa, and Asia, South America with a recent "demographic dividend". It is a force derived from the "life cycle", and most countries have been unable to avoid this universal evolutionary path in the foreseeable future.

physics.soc-ph

Regional Greening as a `Positive' Tipping Phenomenon

Earth system tipping elements have been predominantly investigated for their potential to trigger \textit{negative} ecological, climatic, and societal shifts. Yet, an overlooked but seminal avenue exists in the form of \textit{positive} tipping phenomena, whose underlying mechanisms and benefits remain largely underexplored. To bridge this gap, our research introduces a fundamental percolation-based framework to assess the criticality and resilience of planetary terrestrial vegetation systems. Leveraging high-resolution satellite data, we focus on greening-induced positive tipping dynamics driven by global warming. We feature the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Sahel region as contrasting yet analogous case studies. Our analysis uncovers an intriguing phenomenon where vegetation fragmentation aligns with a percolation threshold, exhibiting a scale-invariant pattern characterized by nearly perfect power laws with three critical exponents. Remarkably, contrary to conventional destructive tipping elements, these regions act as favorable tipping elements, transitioning from fragmented to cohesive vegetation patterns due to anthropogenic climate change and afforestation efforts. Furthermore, we propose an \textit{optimal resilience enhancement model} to reinforce vegetation robustness while minimizing socio-economic costs. This study provides valuable insights into the favorable aspects of tipping elements under climate change and offers effective strategies for enhancing ecological resilience against environmental threats.

physics.geo-ph

Geometry of commutes in the universality of percolating traffic flows

Traffic congestion is a major problem in megacities which increases vehicle emissions and degrades ambient air quality. Various models have been developed to address the universal features of traffic jams. These models range from micro car-following models to macro collective dynamic models. Here, we study the macrostructure of congested traffic influenced by the complex geometry of the commute. Our main focus is on the dynamics of traffic patterns in Paris, and Los Angeles each with distinct urban structures. We analyze the complexity of the giant traffic clusters based on a percolation framework during rush hours in the mornings, evenings, and holidays. We uncover that the universality described by several critical exponents of traffic patterns is highly correlated with the geometry of commute and the underlying urban structure. Our findings might have broad implications for developing a greener, healthier, and more sustainable future city.

physics.soc-ph

Dynamic Arctic weather variability and connectivity

The rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is changing weather patterns and disrupting the balance of nature. Dynamics of Arctic weather variability (WV) plays a crucial role in weather forecasting and is closely related to extreme weather events. Yet, assessing and quantifying the WV for both local Arctic regions and its planetary impacts under anthropogenic climate change is still unknown. Here, we develop a complexity-based approach to systematically evaluate and analyze the dynamic behaviour of WV. We reveal that the WV within and around the Arctic is statistically correlated to the Arctic Oscillation at the intraseasonal time scale. We further find that the variability of the daily Arctic sea ice is increasing due to its dramatic decline under a warming climate. Unstable Arctic weather conditions can disturb regional weather patterns through atmospheric teleconnection pathways, resulting in higher risk to human activities and greater weather forecast uncertainty. A multivariate climate network analysis reveals the existence of such teleconnections and implies a positive feedback loop between the Arctic and global weather instabilities. This enhances the mechanistic understanding of the influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude severe weather. Our framework provides a fresh perspective on the linkage of complexity science, WV and the Arctic.

physics.ao-ph

Teleconnections among Tipping Elements in the Earth System

Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not fully clear how to assess and quantify the influence of a tipping element and how to explore the teleconnections between different tipping elements. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a climate network approach to quantitatively analyze the global impacts of a prominent tipping element, the Amazon Rainforest Area (ARA). We find that regions, such as, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and West Antarctic ice sheet, are characterized by higher network weighted links and exhibit strong correlations with the ARA. We then identify a teleconnection propagation path between the ARA and the TP. This path is robust under climate change as simulated by various climate models of CMIP5 and CMIP6. In addition, we detect early warning signals for critical transition in the snow cover extent on the Tibetan Plateau by applying critical slowing down indicators, lag-1 autocorrelation and detrended fluctuation analysis. We find that the snow cover of the TP has been losing stability since 2008, revealing that the TP is operating like a tipping element and approaching a potential tipping point. We further uncover that various climate extremes between the ARA and the TP are significantly synchronized under climate change. Our framework provides new insights into how tipping elements are linked to each other and into the potential predictability of cascading tipping dynamics.

physics.soc-ph

Emergence of universal scaling in weather extreme events

The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are still not fully understood. Here, we adopt a statistical physics and probability theory based method to investigate the nature of extreme weather events, particularly the statistics of the day-to-day air temperature differences. These statistical measurements reveal that the distributions of the magnitudes of the extreme events satisfy a universal \textit{Gumbel} distribution, while the waiting time of those extreme events is governed by a universal \textit{Gamma} function. Further finite-size effects analysis indicates robust scaling behaviours. We additionally unveil that the cumulative distribution of logarithmic waiting times between the record events follows an \textit{Exponential} distribution and that the evolution of this climate system is directional where the underlying dynamics are related to a decelerating release of tension. The universal scaling laws are remarkably stable and unaffected by global warming. Counterintuitively, unlike as expected for record dynamics, we find that the number of quakes of the extreme temperature variability does not decay as one over time but with deviations relevant to large-scale climate extreme events. Our theoretical framework provides a fresh perspective on the linkage of universality, scaling, and climate systems. The findings throw light on the nature of the weather variabilities and could guide us to better forecast extreme events.

physics.ao-ph

Revealing spatio-temporal interaction patterns behind complex cities

Cities are typical dynamic complex systems that connect people and facilitate interactions. Revealing universal collective patterns behind spatio-temporal interactions between residents is crucial for various urban studies, of which we are still lacking a comprehensive understanding. Massive cellphone data enable us to construct interaction networks based on spatio-temporal co-occurrence of individuals. The rank-size distributions of hourly dynamic population of locations are stable, although people are almost constantly moving in cities and hotspots that attract people are changing over time in a day. A larger city is of a stronger heterogeneity as indicated by a larger scaling exponent. After aggregating spatio-temporal interaction networks over consecutive time windows, we reveal a switching behavior of cities between two states. During the "active" state, the whole city is concentrated in fewer larger communities; while in the "sleeping" state, people are scattered in more smaller communities. Above discoveries are universal over diversified cities across continents. In addition, a city sleeps less, when its population grows larger. And spatio-temporal interaction segregation can be well approximated by residential segregation in smaller cities, but not in larger ones. We propose a temporal-population-weighted-opportunity model by integrating time-dependent departure probability to make dynamic predictions on human mobility, which can reasonably well explain observed patterns of spatio-temporal interactions in cities.

physics.soc-ph

Climate network and complexity based El Niño forecast for 2022

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches for the early forecasting of El Niño. The climate network-based approach allows forecasting the onset of an El Niño event about 1 year ahead. The complexity-based approach allows additionally to forecast the magnitude of an upcoming El Niño event in the calendar year before. Here we communicate the forecasts of both methods for 2022.

physics.ao-ph

Network approach reveals the spatiotemporal influence of traffic to air pollution under the COVID-19

Air pollution causes widespread environmental and health problems and severely hinders the life quality of urban residents. Traffic is a critical for human life and its emissions are a major source of pollution, aggravating urban air pollution. However, the complex interaction between the traffic emissions and the air pollution in the cities has not yet been revealed. In particular, the spread of the COVID-19 has caused various cities to implement different traffic restriction policies according to the local epidemic situation, which provides the possibility to explore the relationship between urban traffic and air pollution. Here we explore the influence of traffic to air pollution by reconstructing a multi-layer complex network base on traffic index and air quality index. We uncover that air quality in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (CCS) and Central China (CC) regions are significantly influenced by the surrounding traffic conditions after the outbreak. Under different fights against the epidemic stages, the influence of traffic in other cities on the air pollution reached the maximum in stage 2 (also called Initial Progress in Containing the Virus). For BTH and CC regions, the impact of traffic on air quality becomes larger in the first two stages and then decreases, while for CC, the significant impact occurs in Phase 3 among regions. For other regions, however, the changes are not evident. Our presented network-based framework provides a new perspective in the field of transportation and environment, and maybe helpful to guide the government to formulate air pollution mitigation and traffic restriction policies.

physics.soc-ph

Emergence of scaling in dockless bike-sharing systems

Fundamental laws of human mobility have been extensively studied, yet we are still lacking a comprehensive understanding of the mobility patterns of sharing conveyances. Since travellers would highly probably no longer possess their own conveyances in the near future, the interplay between travellers and sharing bikes is a central question for developing more sustainable transportation. Dockless bike-sharing systems that record detailed information of every trip provide us a unique opportunity for revealing the hidden patterns behind riding activities. By treating each bike as an individual entity, we reveal that distributions of mobility indicators of bikes are quite different from humans; and mobility patterns are even inconsistent across cities. All above discrepancies can be well explained by a choice model that is characterized by a universal scaling. Our model unveils that instead of choosing among the newest bikes, the distribution of rank values of selected bikes on usage condition manifests a truncated power-law and is quite stable across several cities despite various diversities. Our framework would have broad implications in sharing economy and contribute towards developing a greener, healthier, and more sustainable future city.

physics.soc-ph

Social physics

Recent decades have seen a rise in the use of physics methods to study different societal phenomena. This development has been due to physicists venturing outside of their traditional domains of interest, but also due to scientists from other disciplines taking from physics the methods that have proven so successful throughout the 19th and the 20th century. Here we dub this field 'social physics' and pay our respect to intellectual mavericks who nurtured it to maturity. We do so by reviewing the current state of the art. Starting with a set of topics that are at the heart of modern human societies, we review research dedicated to urban development and traffic, the functioning of financial markets, cooperation as the basis for our evolutionary success, the structure of social networks, and the integration of intelligent machines into these networks. We then shift our attention to a set of topics that explore potential threats to society. These include criminal behaviour, large-scale migrations, epidemics, environmental challenges, and climate change. We end the coverage of each topic with promising directions for future research. Based on this, we conclude that the future for social physics is bright. Physicists studying societal phenomena are no longer a curiosity, but rather a force to be reckoned with. Notwithstanding, it remains of the utmost importance that we continue to foster constructive dialogue and mutual respect at the interfaces of different scientific disciplines.

physics.soc-ph

Eigen Microstates and Their Evolution of Global Ozone at Different Geopotential Heights

Studies on stratospheric ozone have attracted much attention due to its serious impacts on climate changes and its important role as a tracer of Earth's global circulation. Tropospheric ozone as a main atmospheric pollutant damages human health as well as the growth of vegetation. Yet there is still a lack of a theoretical framework to fully describe the variation of ozone. To understand ozone's spatiotemporal variance, we introduce the eigen microstate method to analyze the global ozone mass mixing ratio (OMMR) between 1979-01-01 and 2020-06-30 at 37 pressure layers. We find that eigen microstates at different geopotential heights can capture different climate phenomena and modes. Without deseasonalization, the first eigen microstates capture the seasonal effect and reveal that the phase of the intra-annual cycle moves with the geopotential heights. After deseasonalization, by contrast, the collective patterns from the overall trend, ENSO, QBO, and tropopause pressure are identified by the first few significant eigen microstates. The theoretical framework proposed here can also be applied to other complex Earth systems.

nlin.AO

Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system

Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system, the understanding and in particular the predicting of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges for both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge for a better understanding of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and Earth geometric relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as, critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, as well as entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems (climate, earthquakes, etc.). Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics approaches can be useful in the field of Earth system science.

physics.soc-ph

Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits for Forecasting the Amount of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food production and security. Despite the development of sophisticated statistical and dynamical climate models, a long-term and reliable prediction of the ISMR has remained a challenging problem. Towards achieving this goal, here we construct a series of dynamical and physical climate networks based on the global near surface air temperature field. We uncover that some characteristics of the directed and weighted climate networks can serve as efficient long-term predictors for ISMR forecasting. The developed prediction method produces a forecast skill of 0.5 with a 5-month lead-time in advance by using the previous calendar year's data. The skill of our ISMR forecast, is comparable to the current state-of-the-art models, however, with quite a short (i.e., within one month) lead-time. We discuss the underlying mechanism of our predictor and associate it with network-delayed-ENSO and ENSO-monsoon connections. Moreover, our approach allows predicting the all India rainfall, as well as forecasting the different Indian homogeneous regions' rainfall, which is crucial for agriculture in India. We reveal that global warming affects the climate network by enhancing cross-equatorial teleconnections between Southwest Atlantic, Western part of the Indian Ocean, and North Asia-Pacific with significant impacts on the precipitation in India. We find a hotspots area in the mid-latitude South Atlantic, which is the basis for our predictor. Remarkably, the significant warming trend in this area yields an improvement of the prediction skill.

physics.ao-ph

Intra-annual Principal Modes and Evolution Mechanism of the El Nino Southern Oscillation

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important phenomena in climate. By studying the fluctuations of surface air temperature within one year between 1979-01-01 and 2016-12-31 of the region (30S-30N, 0E-360E) with eigen-decomposition, we find that the temperature fluctuations are dominated by the two principal modes whose temporal evolutions respond significantly to the ENSO variability. According to introduce a micro-correlation, we find that the coupling between the first principal mode and the temperature fluctuations in the El Nino region could result in different ENSO phases. Without this coupling, the El Nino region is in a normal phase. With the strong coupling between the El Nino region and the Northern Hemisphere, an El Nino event will appear with a high probability. Then this coupling changes to be strong between the El Nino region and the Southern Hemisphere accounting for the fast decay of El Nino after boreal winter, even leading to a La Nina event. Moreover, the coupling between the El Nino region and the second principal mode is found to be strong in normal or La Nina phases in response to the normal or strong Walker Circulations. We conjecture that the temporal evolutions of these couplings for the first and second principal modes are controlled by the meridional and zonal ocean-atmospheric circulations respectively.

physics.ao-ph

Improved Earthquake Forecasting Model Based on Long-term Memory in Earthquake

A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake empirical laws. Yet, a recent study showed that the ETAS model fails in reproducing significant long-term memory characteristics found in real earthquake catalogs. Here we modify and generalize the ETAS model to include short- and long-term triggering mechanisms, to account for the short- and long-time memory (exponents) recently discovered in the data. Our generalized ETAS model reproduces accurately the short- and long-term/distance memory observed in the Italian and South California earthquake catalogs. The revised ETAS model is also found to significantly improve earthquake forecasting.

physics.geo-ph