arXiv subjects

Jon A. Wellner

Publications and source records attributed to Jon A. Wellner.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

On Convex Least Squares Estimation when the Truth is Linear

We prove that the convex least squares estimator (LSE) attains a $n^{-1/2}$ pointwise rate of convergence in any region where the truth is linear. In addition, the asymptotic distribution can be characterized by a modified invelope process. Analogous results hold when one uses the derivative of the convex LSE to perform derivative estimation. These asymptotic results facilitate a new consistent testing procedure on the linearity against a convex alternative. Moreover, we show that the convex LSE adapts to the optimal rate at the boundary points of the region where the truth is linear, up to a log-log factor. These conclusions are valid in the context of both density estimation and regression function estimation.

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arXiv2015

Approximation and Estimation of s-Concave Densities via Rényi Divergences

In this paper, we study the approximation and estimation of $s$-concave densities via Rényi divergence. We first show that the approximation of a probability measure $Q$ by an $s$-concave densities exists and is unique via the procedure of minimizing a divergence functional proposed by Koenker and Mizera (2010) if and only if $Q$ admits full-dimensional support and a first moment. We also show continuity of the divergence functional in $Q$: if $Q_n \to Q$ in the Wasserstein metric, then the projected densities converge in weighted $L_1$ metrics and uniformly on closed subsets of the continuity set of the limit. Moreover, directional derivatives of the projected densities also enjoy local uniform convergence. This contains both on-the-model and off-the-model situations, and entails strong consistency of the divergence estimator of an $s$-concave density under mild conditions. One interesting and important feature for the Rényi divergence estimator of an $s$-concave density is that the estimator is intrinsically related with the estimation of log-concave densities via maximum likelihood methods. In fact, we show that for $d=1$ at least, the Rényi divergence estimators for $s$-concave densities converge to the maximum likelihood estimator of a log-concave density as $s \nearrow 0$. The Rényi divergence estimator shares similar characterizations as the MLE for log-concave distributions, which allows us to develop pointwise asymptotic distribution theory assuming that the underlying density is $s$-concave.

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arXiv2015

Global Rates of Convergence of the MLEs of Log-concave and s-concave Densities

We establish global rates of convergence for the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) of log-concave and $s$-concave densities on $\mathbb{R}$. The main finding is that the rate of convergence of the MLE in the Hellinger metric is no worse than $n^{-2/5}$ when $-1 < s < \infty$ where $s=0$ corresponds to the log-concave case. We also show that the MLE does not exist for the classes of $s$-concave densities with $s < - 1$.

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arXiv2015

A law of the iterated logarithm for Grenander's estimator

In this note we prove the following law of the iterated logarithm for the Grenander estimator of a monotone decreasing density: If $f(t_0) > 0$, $f'(t_0) < 0$, and $f'$ is continuous in a neighborhood of $t_0$, then \begin{eqnarray*} \limsup_{n\rightarrow \infty} \left ( \frac{n}{2\log \log n} \right )^{1/3} ( \widehat{f}_n (t_0 ) - f(t_0) ) = \left| f(t_0) f'(t_0)/2 \right|^{1/3} 2M \end{eqnarray*} almost surely where $ M \equiv \sup_{g \in {\cal G}} T_g = (3/4)^{1/3}$ and $ T_g \equiv \mbox{argmax}_u \{ g(u) - u^2 \} $; here ${\cal G}$ is the two-sided Strassen limit set on $R$. The proof relies on laws of the iterated logarithm for local empirical processes, Groeneboom's switching relation, and properties of Strassen's limit set analogous to distributional properties of Brownian motion.

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arXiv2014

An excursion approach to maxima of the Brownian Bridge

Functionals of Brownian bridge arise as limiting distributions in nonparametric statistics. In this paper we will give a derivation of distributions of extrema of the Brownian bridge based on excursion theory for Brownian motion. Only the Poisson character of the excursion process will be used. Particular cases of calculations include the distributions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, the Kuiper statistic, and the ratio of the maximum positive ordinate to the minumum negative ordinate.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Log-concavity and strong log-concavity: a review

We review and formulate results concerning log-concavity and strong-log-concavity in both discrete and continuous settings. We show how preservation of log-concavity and strongly log-concavity on $\mathbb{R}$ under convolution follows from a fundamental monotonicity result of Efron (1969). We provide a new proof of Efron's theorem using the recent asymmetric Brascamp-Lieb inequality due to Otto and Menz (2013). Along the way we review connections between log-concavity and other areas of mathematics and statistics, including concentration of measure, log-Sobolev inequalities, convex geometry, MCMC algorithms, Laplace approximations, and machine learning.

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arXiv2014

Information bounds for Gaussian copulas

Often of primary interest in the analysis of multivariate data are the copula parameters describing the dependence among the variables, rather than the univariate marginal distributions. Since the ranks of a multivariate dataset are invariant to changes in the univariate marginal distributions, rank-based estimators are natural candidates for semiparametric copula estimation. Asymptotic information bounds for such estimators can be obtained from an asymptotic analysis of the rank likelihood, that is, the probability of the multivariate ranks. In this article, we obtain limiting normal distributions of the rank likelihood for Gaussian copula models. Our results cover models with structured correlation matrices, such as exchangeable or circular correlation models, as well as unstructured correlation matrices. For all Gaussian copula models, the limiting distribution of the rank likelihood ratio is shown to be equal to that of a parametric likelihood ratio for an appropriately chosen multivariate normal model. This implies that the semiparametric information bounds for rank-based estimators are the same as the information bounds for estimators based on the full data, and that the multivariate normal distributions are least favorable.

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arXiv2014

Chernoff's density is log-concave

We show that the density of $Z=\mathop {\operatorname {argmax}}\{W(t)-t^2\}$, sometimes known as Chernoff's density, is log-concave. We conjecture that Chernoff's density is strongly log-concave or "super-Gaussian", and provide evidence in support of the conjecture.

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arXiv2013

Weighted likelihood estimation under two-phase sampling

We develop asymptotic theory for weighted likelihood estimators (WLE) under two-phase stratified sampling without replacement. We also consider several variants of WLEs involving estimated weights and calibration. A set of empirical process tools are developed including a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem, a theorem for rates of convergence of M-estimators, and a Donsker theorem for the inverse probability weighted empirical processes under two-phase sampling and sampling without replacement at the second phase. Using these general results, we derive asymptotic distributions of the WLE of a finite-dimensional parameter in a general semiparametric model where an estimator of a nuisance parameter is estimable either at regular or nonregular rates. We illustrate these results and methods in the Cox model with right censoring and interval censoring. We compare the methods via their asymptotic variances under both sampling without replacement and the more usual (and easier to analyze) assumption of Bernoulli sampling at the second phase.

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arXiv2013

On the Hermite spline conjecture and its connection to k-monotone densities

The k-monotone classes of densities defined on (0, \infty) have been known in the mathematical literature but were for the first time considered from a statistical point of view by Balabdaoui and Wellner (2007, 2010). In these works, the authors generalized the results established for monotone (k=1) and convex (k=2) densities by giving a characterization of the Maximum Likelihood and Least Square estimators (MLE and LSE) and deriving minimax bounds for rates of convergence. For k strictly larger than 2, the pointwise asymptotic behavior of the MLE and LSE studied by Balabdaoui and Wellner (2007) would show that the MLE and LSE attain the minimax lower bounds in a local pointwise sense. However, the theory assumes that a certain conjecture about the approximation error of a Hermite spline holds true. The main goal of the present note is to show why such a conjecture cannot be true. We also suggest how to bypass the conjecture and rebuild the key proofs in the limit theory of the estimators.

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arXiv2012

Global Rates of Convergence of the MLE for Multivariate Interval Censoring

We establish global rates of convergence of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of a multivariate distribution function in the case of (one type of) "interval censored" data. The main finding is that the rate of convergence of the MLE in the Hellinger metric is no worse than $n^{-1/3} (\log n)^γ$ for $γ= (5d - 4)/6$.

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arXiv2012

Nonparametric estimation of multivariate convex-transformed densities

We study estimation of multivariate densities $p$ of the form $p(x)=h(g(x))$ for $x\in \mathbb {R}^d$ and for a fixed monotone function $h$ and an unknown convex function $g$. The canonical example is $h(y)=e^{-y}$ for $y\in \mathbb {R}$; in this case, the resulting class of densities [\mathcal {P}(e^{-y})={p=\exp(-g):g is convex}] is well known as the class of log-concave densities. Other functions $h$ allow for classes of densities with heavier tails than the log-concave class. We first investigate when the maximum likelihood estimator $\hat{p}$ exists for the class $\mathcal {P}(h)$ for various choices of monotone transformations $h$, including decreasing and increasing functions $h$. The resulting models for increasing transformations $h$ extend the classes of log-convex densities studied previously in the econometrics literature, corresponding to $h(y)=\exp(y)$. We then establish consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for fairly general functions $h$, including the log-concave class $\mathcal {P}(e^{-y})$ and many others. In a final section, we provide asymptotic minimax lower bounds for the estimation of $p$ and its vector of derivatives at a fixed point $x_0$ under natural smoothness hypotheses on $h$ and $g$. The proofs rely heavily on results from convex analysis.

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arXiv2012

A general semiparametric Z-estimation approach for case-cohort studies

Case-cohort design, an outcome-dependent sampling design for censored survival data, is increasingly used in biomedical research. The development of asymptotic theory for a case-cohort design in the current literature primarily relies on counting process stochastic integrals. Such an approach, however, is rather limited and lacks theoretical justification for outcome-dependent weighted methods due to non-predictability. Instead of stochastic integrals, we derive asymptotic properties for case-cohort studies based on a general Z-estimation theory for semiparametric models with bundled parameters using modern empirical processes. Both the Cox model and the additive hazards model with time-dependent covariates are considered.

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arXiv2010

Squaring the Circle and Cubing the Sphere: Circular and Spherical Copulas

Do there exist circular and spherical copulas in $R^d$? That is, do there exist circularly symmetric distributions on the unit disk in $R^2$ and spherically symmetric distributions on the unit ball in $R^d$, $d\ge3$, whose one-dimensional marginal distributions are uniform? The answer is yes for $d=2$ and 3, where the circular and spherical copulas are unique and can be determined explicitly, but no for $d\ge4$. A one-parameter family of elliptical bivariate copulas is obtained from the unique circular copula in $R^2$ by oblique coordinate transformations. Copulas obtained by a non-linear transformation of a uniform distribution on the unit ball in $R^d$ are also described, and determined explicitly for $d=2$.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2010

A local maximal inequality under uniform entropy

We derive an upper bound for the mean of the supremum of the empirical process indexed by a class of functions that are known to have variance bounded by a small constant $δ$. The bound is expressed in the uniform entropy integral of the class at $δ$. The bound yields a rate of convergence of minimum contrast estimators when applied to the modulus of continuity of the contrast functions.

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arXiv2010

Nonparametric estimation of multivariate scale mixtures of uniform densities

Suppose that $\m{U} = (U_1, \ldots , U_d) $ has a Uniform$([0,1]^d)$ distribution, that $\m{Y} = (Y_1 , \ldots , Y_d) $ has the distribution $G$ on $\RR_+^d$, and let $\m{X} = (X_1 , \ldots , X_d) = (U_1 Y_1 , \ldots , U_d Y_d )$. The resulting class of distributions of $\m{X}$ (as $G$ varies over all distributions on $\RR_+^d$) is called the {\sl Scale Mixture of Uniforms} class of distributions, and the corresponding class of densities on $\RR_+^d$ is denoted by $\{\cal F}_{SMU}(d)$. We study maximum likelihood estimation in the family ${\cal F}_{SMU}(d)$. We prove existence of the MLE, establish Fenchel characterizations, and prove strong consistency of the almost surely unique maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in ${\cal F}_{SMU}(d)$. We also provide an asymptotic minimax lower bound for estimating the functional $f \mapsto f(\m{x})$ under reasonable differentiability assumptions on $f\in{\cal F}_{SMU} (d)$ in a neighborhood of $\m{x}$. We conclude the paper with discussion, conjectures and open problems pertaining to global and local rates of convergence of the MLE.

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arXiv2010

Nonparametric estimation of a convex bathtub-shaped hazard function

In this paper, we study the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a convex hazard function. We show that the MLE is consistent and converges at a local rate of $n^{2/5}$ at points $x_0$ where the true hazard function is positive and strictly convex. Moreover, we establish the pointwise asymptotic distribution theory of our estimator under these same assumptions. One notable feature of the nonparametric MLE studied here is that no arbitrary choice of tuning parameter (or complicated data-adaptive selection of the tuning parameter) is required.

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arXiv2010

How many Laplace transforms of probability measures are there?

A bracketing metric entropy bound for the class of Laplace transforms of probability measures on [0,\infty) is obtained through its connection with the small deviation probability of a smooth Gaussian process. Our results for the particular smooth Gaussian process seem to be of independent interest.

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